Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London
The Bills lost at home 34-21 to the Bengals last week and are in a mess of a situation injury wise, missing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, wide receiver Percy Harvin, and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are arguably as healthy as they’ve been all season. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury for the season, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week.
However, the Bills could still easily bounce back and cover as 4.5 point favorites here. This is technically a Jacksonville home game, but it’s in London, so it’s a neutral site game. The better team typically covers in London, going 8-4 ATS all-time, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10. It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.
The Bills aren’t very good, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential and in a rough injury situation, but the Jaguars are even worse, even though they have improved health, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Bills are 3-3 and still in the AFC playoff race so they should be able to get up for this game and beat the Jaguars by at least 5. I’m not confident at all though, as long as the line is higher than 3. Hopefully it falls before the game, but I’m not banking on it.
Buffalo Bills 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 10
Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5