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Continue reading →: Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Miami Dolphins (6-5) at New York Jets (2-9) The Jets were blown out last Monday, losing 38-3 in Detroit to the Bills in a game that had both its time and its location moved by a snow storm in Buffalo. Teams generally don’t do well off of a Monday Night…
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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (7-4) at Buffalo Bills (6-5) I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games, which tends to be a good spot for teams. Teams are 46-26 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a win as road…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (7-4) The Lions are in a nice spot here, after a very tough and unrewarding road trip that sent them to Arizona and New England, who are a combined 18-4. Teams that lose back-to-back road games are 43-25 ATS in their next game as…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (4-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4) I am legitimately shocked. The Saints had won 20 straight home games as long as they had both Drew Brees under center and Sean Payton on the sideline and they had 3 straight home games as favorites to move to 7-4 and…
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Continue reading →: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (8-3) at Dallas Cowboys (8-3) The Cowboys have been horrible as home favorites since 2010, going 7-22 ATS in that situation. This isn’t unique to them as the whole NFC East recently has had less homefield advantage than average recently. At home, the NFC East is 73-82 since…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (7-4) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4) The Seahawks beat the Cardinals in Seattle in impressive fashion last week, but they are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having…
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Continue reading →: Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7) The Falcons lost at home last week, but that hasn’t been the norm for them at home in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 31-21-1 ATS at home (38-15 straight up) since those two came in back in 2008, as long as…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-8) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4) The Redskins stand at 3-8, but they aren’t as bad as their record. Their -56 point differential isn’t as bad as their record. They have just 2 losses by more than 11 points. They’ve also been killed by the turnover battle (-9) and…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (9-2) at Green Bay Packers (8-3) The Patriots have been the better of these two teams this season, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Packers rank 7th. They’ve moved the chains at a 77.75% rate, as opposed to 72.42% for their opponents,…
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Continue reading →: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Denver Broncos (8-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4) The Chiefs lost to the Raiders last week. How are they going to beat the Broncos this week? The public is all over the Broncos as small road favorites here so that’s clearly what they’re thinking. I love fading the public whenever…
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