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Continue reading →: St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (6-7) At first glance, this line seems off. The Cardinals aren’t as good as their 10-3 record, but rate of moving the chains differential still says we’re getting a significant amount of line value with them as 4.5 point underdogs. The Cardinals rank…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (4-9) One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically, which makes a lot of sense. The problem with this trend is it’s often very…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 5-10-1 Straight Up: 9-7 Pick of the Week: 0-0-1 High Confidence: 0-2 Medium Confidence: 1-3 Low Confidence: 3-2 No Confidence: 1-3 Upset Picks: 1-3 On the season Against the Spread: 117-89-2 (.568) Straight Up: 135-72-1 (.652) Pick of the Week: 8-5-1 High Confidence: 8-10 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 15
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4) On the season, the Patriots are moving the chains at a 78.05% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 4.90% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Chargers move the chains at a 74.93% rate, as…
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Continue reading →: Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5) The Browns are in a bad spot here with the Bengals coming to town net week. Teams are 15-30 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. However, they should still be the right side. This line is too…
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Continue reading →: Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) The Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average…
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Continue reading →: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) The Bengals have been very good at home over the past 2 seasons. The Bengals are 12-2-1 at home since 2013, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.40 points per game, going 11-4 against the spread. They are also in a good spot…
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Continue reading →: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) at Detroit Lions (8-4) This line is too high. The Lions aren’t as good as their record, as they’ve gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.83%…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go…
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