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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3) Usually the public is all over favorites, particularly big favorites, because they don’t quite understand the value of the points they’re giving up. The public takes the favorite about 80% of the time or so and it’s a big part of the reason…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-9) at Tennessee Titans (2-10) The Giants typically cover the spread on the road in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. Since 2004, the Giants are 51-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.52 points per game, as opposed to 50-40 at home, outscoring opponents…
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Continue reading →: New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick
New York Jets (2-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7) Both of these teams will be road underdogs next week, but the Vikings will have a much tougher game. While the Jets will be in Tennessee, the Vikings have to go to Detroit. On top of that, the Vikings are in a…
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Continue reading →: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick Results
Last week Against the Spread: 8-8 Straight Up: 10-6 Pick of the Week: 0-1 High Confidence: 0-1 Medium Confidence: 1-3 Low Confidence: 2-2 No Confidence: 5-1 Upset Picks: 2-2 On the season Against the Spread: 112-79-1 (.586) Straight Up: 126-65-1 (.660) Pick of the Week: 8-5 High Confidence: 8-8 Medium…
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Continue reading →: Rate of Moving the Chains – Week 14
What is this? This is rate of moving the chains, which is my primary statistic for handicapping games. It holds the assumption that the goal of any team on any given 1st and 10 (or 1st and goal) is to move the chains (or score). In order to figure out…
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Continue reading →: Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Cincinnati Bengals (7-3-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-9) At first glance, the Buccaneers are in a terrible spot. After this game, they have to go to Detroit, where they could easily be double digit underdogs. The early line was 9, but after Detroit looked good on national TV on Thanksgiving…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at St. Louis Rams: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (1-10) at St. Louis Rams (4-7) One of the most powerful trends says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The problem with this trend is it’s often very hard to know whether or not…
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Continue reading →: Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Carolina Panthers (3-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (4-7) This line is right about where it should be at 2.5 in favor of the Vikings. The Panthers are a little bit better than the Vikings on the season, moving the chains at a 71.84% rate, as opposed to 76.04% for their opponents,…
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Continue reading →: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
Tennessee Titans (2-9) at Houston Texans (5-6) The Titans are in their 2nd of two road games which is typically a good spot for teams. Teams are 110-74 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-52 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road…
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Continue reading →: New York Giants at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick
New York Giants (3-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10) At first glance, as bad as the Jaguars are, this line does make sense. The Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.53% rate, as opposed to 73.01% for their opponents, a differential of -7.48%. However, the Giants aren’t exactly great,…
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