Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)
The Seahawks are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 46-20 at home, including playoffs and they aren’t just having success straight up as they are 44-21-1 ATS. They outscore opponents on average by 7.80 points per game at home. This is opposed to a 25-42 record away from home (29-37-1 ATS), getting outscored by 3.46 points per game. This season, they are 3-3 on the road, as opposed to 5-1 at home. On the road, they’ve moved the chains at a 75.43% rate, as opposed to 74.85% for their opponents, a differential of 0.58%. They’re even worse on the road as underdogs, going 16-25 ATS as road underdogs since 2007.
The Eagles are only favored by a point here, but they’re still favored and they should actually be favored by a little bit more. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.41% rate, as opposed to 69.57% for their opponents, a differential of 2.84%. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 8th, moving them at a 75.14% rate, as opposed to 71.55% for their opponents, a differential of 3.58%. And, as I mentioned, they’ve been very average on the road this season.
The Eagles’ offense hasn’t been much worse since Nick Foles went down and Mark Sanchez took over as they’ve moved the chains at a 72.54% rate over their past 4 games with Sanchez as the starter, though they’ve faced four bad defenses, Carolina (29th), Green Bay (30th), Tennessee (31st), and Dallas (26th). It’s not necessarily that Sanchez has been as good as Foles, but their offensive line has simultaneously gotten significantly healthier and LeSean McCoy has gotten going on the ground. Their defense is the reason they’re way they are this season as they rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has remained serviceable with Sanchez under center. This line should be a closer to 3. In spite of that, the public is on the underdog here.
The Seahawks are in their 2nd straight road game, which should help them. Teams are 46-27 as road underdogs off of a road win as underdogs since 2008. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 188-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.53 points per game, as opposed to 266-382 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.35 points per game. Since 2007, the Seahawks are 6-6 ATS in their 2nd of two road games. Meanwhile, the Eagles are just 14-26 ATS at home since 2010, though they are 5-1 ATS this season. There’s a lot of conflicting stuff here and I can’t be confident in either side. I’m taking the Eagles gun to my head, but I wouldn’t put money on it.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Seattle Seahawks 20
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -1