Houston Texans (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)
Both teams are in terrible spots here. The Jaguars have to go to Baltimore next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs and teams are 44-86 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. Meanwhile, the Texans have to go to Indianapolis next week, where they are projected to be 7 point underdogs. Favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 17-32 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+.
I’m taking the Jaguars because this line is too high and the public is all over Houston. This line has shifted from 3.5 to 6 from last week to this week. I love fading a huge line movement whenever it makes sense and I think it does here because this line should be right around where it was last week, according to rate of moving the chains differential. The Texans rank just 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 71.62% rate, as opposed to 73.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.38%. Meanwhile, the Jaguars rank 30th, moving the chains at a 65.71% rate, as opposed to 72.87% for their opponents, a differential of -7.15%. I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I’m not confident in Jacksonville though.
Houston Texans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +6