Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (7-5)
The Browns are in a bad spot here with the Bengals coming to town net week. Teams are 15-30 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional home underdogs. However, they should still be the right side. This line is too high at 3.5. That means the Colts would be 9.5 point favorites in Indianapolis. Last week, they were favored by 10 over Washington, who is not as good as Cleveland. The public is still all over the Colts though because they don’t put enough value in homefield advantage and don’t understand how the Colts wouldn’t win by 4 or more here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here.
On the season, the Browns rank 15th, moving the chains at a 70.48% rate, as opposed to 69.77% for their opponents, a differential of 0.71%, while the Colts rank 3rd, moving the chains at a 77.29% rate, as opposed to 72.54% for their opponents, a differential of 4.75%. The Colts don’t deserve to be 3.5 point favorites here, especially when you take into account that Vontae Davis will be out for the Colts. Davis is easily the Colts’ top defensive player on an otherwise pedestrian defense. The Browns should keep this close, but I’m not that confident.
Indianapolis Colts 27 Cleveland Browns 24
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3.5