Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)

The Bills are favored by 17 points in this matchup, but it should be 21 according to my calculated line, as the Texans have the worst roster in the league around the quarterback and only had early success this season because of the strong play of now injured quarterback Tyrod Taylor. With the raw rookie Davis Mills under center, the Texans are by far the worst team in the league, 13.5 points below average in my roster rankings.

Meanwhile the Bills (5 points above average) are one of the top teams in the league overall, even without safety Jordan Poyer, who is expected to miss this game. I can’t take the Bills with any confidence though because it’s always hard to be confident in huge favorites, especially since the Bills could be caught in a look ahead spot with a trip to Kansas City on deck. The Bills are the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this could just as easily be a 14-point win as it could be a 21-point win and the Bills could slack off with a big second half lead and allow a backdoor cover.

Buffalo Bills 28 Houston Texans 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -17

Confidence: None