Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

The Denver Broncos have gotten off to a 3-0 and, while they have faced bad teams in all three games (Giants, Jets, Jaguars), they have won all three in convincing fashion, by an average of 20 points per game. This home matchup against the Ravens is their first real test and, while they could easily win, I would have liked their chances more before all of the injuries started piling up, with the Broncos already down starting wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler, guard Graham Glasgow, edge defender Bradley Chubb, cornerback Ronald Darby, and inside linebacker Josey Jewell just since week one. My calculated line has them favored by a point rather than underdog of a point, as the actual line has, but that’s not nearly enough to bet on. The Broncos are the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but nothing more.

Sunday Update: The line has moved to favoring the Broncos by a point now instead of the Ravens. I’ve also rethought this game slightly and see it as no more than a 50/50 toss up, given the opposite direction these two teams are moving in injury wise. Given that, I’m now taking the Ravens since we are at least getting a point with them, but I’m dropping all confidence on this matchup because that one point isn’t worth much.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Denver Broncos 23

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +1

Confidence: None