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Continue reading →: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Cleveland Browns (0-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) Despite being just 2-4, the Bengals are favored by double digits this week. That’s even rarer than you’d think, as just 4 other teams since 1993 have been favored by double digits despite having a winning percentage of .333 or worse in week…
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Continue reading →: Houston Texans at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Houston Texans (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-2) I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has for some reason gotten higher in favor of Denver in the past week, climbing from 6.5 to 9, even though the Texans won at home against the Colts and the Broncos lost…
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Continue reading →: Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Los Angeles Rams (3-3) vs. New York Giants (3-3) at London The Rams have fallen back to earth in the last 2 weeks, losing back-to-back games after a surprising 3-1 start. They’re healthier now than they’ve been for a couple weeks, getting defensive ends Robert Quinn and William Hayes back…
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Continue reading →: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Buffalo Bills (4-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-4) One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. Ordinarily, they’re the result of overreaction to a single week and they create line value in either direction. The line did only move a point from…
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Continue reading →: New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2) The Saints pulled off a big upset win over the Panthers last week, winning 41-38 in a crazy shootout. That’s obviously a huge win, even if the Panthers aren’t what they were last year, but teams tend not to cover off…
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Continue reading →: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) The 5-0 Vikings are the NFL’s final remaining undefeated team. They’ve been impressive overall, but their offense actually has struggled to move the ball effectively for most of the season. On 310 offensive plays, they have just 87 first downs (fewest in the…
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Continue reading →: Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3) I have these two teams as more or less equal. They’re also very similar, as both teams have effective offenses, but weak defenses. In terms of first down percentage, Detroit ranks 4th offensively and Washington ranks 5th, but Washington is a few spots…
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Continue reading →: Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Oakland Raiders (4-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 4-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading, as their first 5 games were all decided by a touchdown or fewer (with 3 of…
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Continue reading →: Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5) No team has had a bigger drop-off from 2015 to 2016 than the New York Jets. A year removed from going 10-6 and finishing 2nd in first down percentage differential, the Jets are now 1-5 and rank dead last in that metric.…
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Continue reading →: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick
Chicago Bears (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-2) This is a tough one to start the week. On one hand, the line shifted from 10.5 to 8 over the past week, as a result of Green Bay’s home loss to a good Dallas team, so we’re getting the Packers in…
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