Dallas Cowboys (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-8)
Typically, the Browns would be in a tough spot here, as they have to turn around after this tough home game against the 6-1 Cowboys and go to Baltimore on a short week, a tough divisional clash in which they’re projected to be 9.5 point underdogs on the early line. Underdogs of 6 or more are just 132-170 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 6 or more again. However, teams that are 0-8 or worse are actually 10-5 ATS in that spot over that time period. The Browns enter this game as the NFL’s only winless team at 0-8. Believe it or not, betting on winless teams this late in the season has actually been a winning bet in the past, as teams that are 0-8 or worse are 34-16 ATS since 1989.
That being said, I’m actually going with the Cowboys this week, just because of how good of a road team they are historically, thanks to their national fanbase. Since 2010, they’ve outscored opponents by 0.96 points per game at home and been outscored by 0.57 points per game on the road, meaning their homefield advantage hasn’t even been worth a point over that time period. They are also 29-21 ATS on the road over that time period. This line is pretty high at 7.5, so I couldn’t be confident in them, but the Cowboys are the pick in pick ‘em leagues.
Dallas Cowboys 28 Cleveland Browns 20
Pick against the spread: Dallas -7.5