Detroit Lions (11-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-4)
The Packers failed to cover in their previous home game, a 43-37 home victory over the Falcons, but that’s the only time they’ve failed to cover at home this season, en route to a thus far perfect 7-0 mark at home. On the season, they move the chains at an 81.55% rate at home, as opposed to 73.04% for their opponents, a differential of 8.50%. Conversely, the Lions have been terrible on the road, moving the chains at a 68.97% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -4.22% away from the Motor City.
The Packers’ home dominance is nothing new as Aaron Rodgers is 26-10-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 33-4 straight up, with an absurd +554 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.97 points per game. The Packers lost earlier this year in Detroit, but the Lions are going to have a much tougher time here in Green Bay as they seek to hand the Packers their first home loss of the season, sweep the season series, and clinch the division and a first round bye.
These two teams may have identical records, but the Packers have been significantly better than the Lions this season. They rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league best 79.54% rate, as opposed to 74.63% for their opponents, a differential of 4.91%. Meanwhile, the Lions rank 13th, moving the chains at a 71.08% rate, as opposed to 70.25% for their opponents, a differential of 0.83%. That’s largely because the Packers have a +128 point differential on the season, as opposed to +49 for the Lions, who have needed some lucky comebacks in close games to get to where they are. The odds makers know about the Packers’ home dominance and about how uneven these two teams are in talent level, which is why this line is 7.5, but I still don’t think it’s high enough. The Packers should be the right side.
Green Bay Packers 30 Detroit Lions 17
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5