Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Washington Redskins (4-11)
I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line has shifted from 8 to 6 over the past week. I love fading significant line movements as they’re often overreactions. This line movement could very well be an overreaction. While the Redskins beat the Eagles last week, they could have lost and lost fairly easily if not for two Philadelphia missed field goals, both of which were makeable, and a couple 50/50 balls to DeSean Jackson that went their way. They lost the first down battle 30-21 in that one and the Eagles moved the chains at an 82.50% rate, as opposed to 77.42% for the Redskins. Teams are 65-85 ATS off of a win as 6+ point home underdogs since 1989 anyway, likely because those types of upset victories usually are fluky and precede significant line movements.
The Cowboys, meanwhile, have been significantly better on the road this season, going 7-0, as opposed to 4-4 at home. They’ve moved the chains at a 78.13% rate on the road, as opposed to 73.46% for their opponents, a differential of 4.67%. At home, they move the chains at a 76.86% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential of 2.07%. This is nothing new for them are they are 22-16 ATS on the road since 2010, as opposed to 14-26 ATS at home.
On the other hand, the Redskins have been better than their record all season. Last week was a fluky win, but they’ve had some fluky losses and also some close losses that could have gone either way. Even when you take into account that the Cowboys have been better on the road and the line movement, we’re still getting some line value with the Redskins. The Redskins move the chains at a 70.75% rate on the season, as opposed to 73.11% for their opponents, a differential of -2.36% that ranks 25th in the NFL, significantly better than their record would suggest. The Cowboys also don’t have a ton to play for here as they’re locked into the #3 seed unless both Seattle and Arizona lose so they could be caught looking forward off of such a big win last week. The line movement might have more to do with that than anything. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Redskins and fading the public, but I wouldn’t wager a cent on it.
Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 24
Pick against the spread: Washington +6