Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
Baltimore is generally very good at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 34-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.24 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9 points. However, while they are 22-12 ATS as home underdogs or home favorites of 7 or more, they are just 9-12 ATS as home favorites of more than 7.
The Ravens are also in a bad spot as they are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 78-109 ATS in since 2008. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 123-94 ATS since 2002. Combining the two, teams are 62-38 ATS since 2012 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The early line of the Ravens’ game in Houston next week is only Houston -1 so the Ravens won’t definitely be underdogs, but the logic still stands. While the Ravens have a much more important game next week on the road against a team still alive in the playoff race, the Jaguars have arguably their easiest game of the season, as they will be favored for the first time all year at home for the Titans.
Baltimore Ravens 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 19
Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +14