Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Buffalo Bills (7-6)
This line started out at 6 at the beginning of the week, but now is done to everything from 4-5.5 depending on where you get it. That’s despite the public being all over Green Bay, which suggests that the sharps are on Buffalo this week. I love fading the public and going with the sharps whenever it makes sense and it certainly does this week, but I do still wish the line was at 6. The Packers haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season as at home, with just one road win by more than 4 points, and they’re facing a reasonable opponent here who could easily play them close, but I’d need at least 6 points to be confident going against Rodgers this week.
Rodgers has been very good no matter where he’s been this season. The Packers offense has moved the chains at an 81.55% rate at home this season and an 80.00% rate on the road. The difference is their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at an 81.91% rate on the road this season, as opposed to 73.04% at home. The Bills don’t have a good offense, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate this season, but if the Packers defense plays like it has on the road this season, they shouldn’t have a ton of trouble moving the ball.
Meanwhile, the Bills, more than maybe any other team in the league, have the personnel to slow down the Packers’ offense. Their league best defense in terms of rate of moving the chains allowed at 68.00% allowed the Broncos’ explosive offense to move the chains at a 72.00% rate in Denver last week. If they can slow down the Packers offense and move the ball on a weak Green Bay defense, then I’m happy taking the Bills getting anything more than 4 points here in Buffalo, but I’d need at least 6 to be reasonably confident in the Bills.
The Packers are in a good spot with a trip to Tampa Bay on deck, where the early line has them as 10.5 point favorites. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites, 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites, 23-8 ATS before being 7+ road favorites, though oddly enough just 4-4 ATS before being 10+ road favorites (might just be a small sample size, that spot is 36-22 ATS since 2002). However, Buffalo has an easy game up next with a trip to Oakland on deck, where the early line has them as 4.5 point favorites. The Bills should be the right side, but again I’m not that confident.
Green Bay Packers 23 Buffalo Bills 20
Pick against the spread: Buffalo +5.5