Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
Entering the season as defending Super Bowl Champions, few expected the Rams would be 15.5-point underdogs at any point this season, but that’s where we’re at right now, due to all of the injuries suffered by the Rams’ offense. Already missing a pair of starting offensive linemen from last year’s team due to off-season departures, the Rams have lost the other three starting offensive linemen from last year’s team mid-season due to injuries, while starting quarterback Matt Stafford and his elite #1 receiver Cooper Kupp are also out, leaving the Rams with arguably the least talented offense in the NFL.
The Rams’ defense is still mostly intact, losing Von Miller this off-season, but adding another stud linebacker in Bobby Wagner, staying mostly healthy, and ranking 12th in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. However, even with an above average defense, I have the Rams nine points below average in my roster rankings and, with the Rams in Kansas City this week, it’s not hard to justify this line, even as high as it is. If anything, it might not be high enough.
At 8-2, the Chiefs have the best record in the AFC, which is the tougher of the two conferences, and they are arguably the best team in the league overall, ranking seven points above average in schedule adjusted efficiency and nine points above average in my roster rankings, suggesting this line should be closer to -20 than -15.5. This line is too big for the Chiefs to be worth betting, but I don’t see this game being particularly close, with the Rams fielding an offense that is made up of almost entirely backups at this point, so the Chiefs are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.
Kansas City Chiefs 28 Los Angeles Rams 10
Pick against the spread: Kansas City -15.5