New York Giants (5-9) at St. Louis Rams (6-8)
This line is off. The Rams are 6.5 point favorites here at home despite the fact that the Giants rank better in rate of moving the chains differential. The Giants rank 16th, moving them at a 72.33% rate, as opposed to 72.52% for their opponents, a differential of -0.19%. Meanwhile, the Rams come in at 20th, moving the chains at a 69.15% rate, as opposed to 70.12% for their opponents, a differential of -0.97%. On top of that, the Giants historically don’t have as much trouble, relatively, away from home as the rest of the league. Since 2004, the Giants are 52-42 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 51-40 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.74 points per game. The Giants seem to only be marginally worse on the road (about 3 points), but the line has never really adapted to compensate.
Neither of these teams is in a great spot with the Rams going to take on the Seahawks in Seattle next week and the Giants heading home to take on the Eagles. Non-divisional home favorites are 89-108 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, while non-divisional road underdogs are 61-83 ATS before being divisional home underdogs over that same time period. However, the Rams are in the worst spot as they are projected to be double digit underdogs next week (the early line is Seattle -10). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The Giants are projected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, but the Rams still have the more powerful trend working against them. The Giants should be the right side.
St. Louis Rams 20 New York Giants 19
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +6.5