Buffalo Bills (8-6) at Oakland Raiders (2-12)
This line shifted from 4.5 to 6 over the past week with the Bills winning at home in upset fashion over the Packers. I love fading huge line movements whenever it makes sense because they’re usually overreactions, especially when I can do so and fade the public at the same time, because the public always loses money in the long run. The public is on Buffalo here in a big way and the line movement is a bit of an overreaction. The Bills won on the scoreboard, but the Packers won the first down battle 21-13 and moved the chains at a 64.71% rate, as opposed to 54.17% for the Bills.
That being said, it’s not quite a big enough line movement for me to be excited about the Raiders this week, even if it is at the key number of 6. The Bills rank 26th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.76% rate, as opposed to 67.74% for their opponents, a differential of -1.98%. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last on the season in that aspect, moving the chains at a 62.95% rate, as opposed to 72.67% for their opponents, a differential of -9.71%. That suggests this line should be right around where it was last week at 4.5. However, this line would have to be a touchdown or more for me to be confident in Oakland.
The Bills are in a bad spot this week, as they have a much tougher game in New England next week.. Favorites of 6 or more are just 47-81 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 18-33 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The 49ers lost straight up here in Oakland in this exact same spot as 8 point favorites a couple weeks ago, ahead of a much bigger game in Seattle. The 49ers are more talented than the Bills. However, the Raiders aren’t exactly in a great spot with a trip to Denver on deck (though they weren’t against San Francisco either with a trip to Kansas City on deck at that point). Teams are 47-87 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. I’m still going with the Raiders, but, again, I’d need a touchdown to put money on it.
Buffalo Bills 13 Oakland Raiders 10
Pick against the spread: Oakland +6