Green Bay Packers (10-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-12)
The Packers haven’t been nearly the same team on the road this season. That was evident last week in a loss in Buffalo and it’s been evident all year as they’ve beaten just one team by more than 4 points on the road all season, relevant considering this line is all the way up at 10.5 On the season, they move the chains at a 77.57% rate, as opposed to 78.92% for their opponents, a differential of -1.35%. However, there are reasons to like them here as big road favorites. For one, Tampa Bay isn’t great at home, going 14-31 ATS at home since 2009, including 0-7 straight up and 2-5 ATS this season. That makes taking the Packers as massive road favorites less scary, especially with Gerald McCoy out for the Buccaneers.
Two, the Packers are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 137-110 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 1989, including 101-86 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 195-198 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.31 points per game, as opposed to 272-389 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.27 points per game. On top of that, Aaron Rodgers is pretty good off of a loss in his career, going 20-10 ATS in that spot.
The Buccaneers are also in a bad spot with the Saints coming to town next week. The early line has them projected as 4.5 point home underdogs in that one. Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs. On top of that, non-divisional home underdogs are 15-32 ATS before being divisional home underdogs since 2002. It’s hard to be confident in the Packers on the road, even against a bad team with minimal homefield advantage, but I like their chances of bouncing back in a big way this week and they should be the right side.
Green Bay Packers 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -10.5