Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Redskins (3-11)
This is one of two games this week where the line is really off, according to rate of moving the chains differential (the other one is Chicago/Detroit). The Redskins haven’t been quite as bad as their record this season, moving the chains at a 70.28% rate, as opposed to 72.20% for their opponents, a differential of -1.92% that ranks 24th in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t been as good as their record, moving the chains at a 71.43% rate, as opposed to 71.06% for their opponents, a differential of 0.36% that ranks 13th in the NFL.
Their offense has been even worse over the past few games with Mark Sanchez under center in place of an injured Nick Foles, as they’ve moved the chains at a 70.10% rate over the past 6 games, despite 5 of those 6 games coming against opponents who rank in the bottom-8 in rate of moving the chains differential (Tennessee 28th, Green Bay 30th, Carolina 25th, Dallas twice 27th). Things have been especially bad over the past 2 games, resulting in home losses to Seattle and Dallas. It’s really hard to trust Mark Sanchez as a massive road favorite, especially with the public all over Philadelphia. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it does here.
However, unlike Chicago/Detroit, I’m not confident enough to put money on this one. There’s a lot of stuff working against the Redskins as well, including an injury to top defensive player Jason Hatcher. On top of that, the Eagles have a much easier game than the Redskins do next week as they head to New York to take on the Giants, while the Redskins have to host the Cowboys. Teams are 93-67 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites (the early line is Philadelphia -3). On the other side of the coin, Teams are 64-98 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ home underdogs, including 34-69 ATS before being 4+ home underdogs, and 12-25 ATS before being 7+ home underdogs (the early line is Dallas –8). The Redskins should be the right side, but I’m not that confident.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 20
Pick against the spread: Washington +8.5