Atlanta Falcons (5-7) at Green Bay Packers (9-3)
The Packers have been outstanding at home this season, moving the chains at an 80.51% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 9.89%. This home dominance is nothing new for them. Aaron Rodgers is 26-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 32-4 straight up, with an absurd +548 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 15.22 points per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, typically struggle on the road, especially over the past 2 seasons, going 3-8 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last year. This season, they move the chains at a 69.89% rate, as opposed to 75.12% for their opponents, on the road, a differential of -5.23%.
However, this line largely takes all both of those things into account as it’s very high at 12.5. I still have a decent amount of confidence in the Packers to come away with a blowout victory here though. I wish the line was closer to 10, but we’re still getting value with the Packers here. On top of the Packers’ home dominance and the Falcons’ road struggles, the Packers are also in a great spot as they don’t have any upcoming distractions with a trip to Buffalo on deck. Teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, including 57-34 ATS before being 4+ point favorites, and 23-8 ATS before being 7+ point favorites (the early line is Green Bay -6.5). The Packers should be the right side here.
Green Bay Packers 38 Atlanta Falcons 17
Pick against the spread: Green Bay -12.5