Buffalo Bills (7-5) at Denver Broncos (9-3)
Usually the public is all over favorites, particularly big favorites, because they don’t quite understand the value of the points they’re giving up. The public takes the favorite about 80% of the time or so and it’s a big part of the reason why the public always loses money in the long run. However, there’s only a slight lean on the Broncos as 10 point favorites here. I think the public is actually slightly overrating the Bills here as underdogs. It makes sense that they’d do that as the Bills have a 7-5 record, but they are nowhere near as good as that record suggests.
The Bills rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.52% rate, as opposed to 67.73% for their opponents, a differential of -2.22%. The Broncos, meanwhile, rank 1st, moving the chains at a 78.07% rate, as opposed to 70.82% for their opponents, a differential of 7.25%. I don’t think this line is high enough and I don’t have any problem taking the Broncos even with the public on them because it’s not a heavy lean. The Broncos have been especially good at home since Peyton Manning showed up in 2012, going 16-9 ATS as home favorites, including 6-3 ATS as home favorites of 10 or more.
The Bills are also in a tough spot as they host Green Bay next week. Teams are 59-92 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more and 30-64 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more. Meanwhile, the Broncos head to San Diego, where they will be road favorites. Teams are 100-63 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2002. On top of that, teams are 89-60 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, which the Broncos could easily be next week. I like the Broncos to blow out the Bills here.
Denver Broncos 31 Buffalo Bills 13
Pick against the spread: Denver -10