Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)
The Dolphins are the better of these two teams, but they are only favored by 2.5 here at home (less than the average homefield advantage adjustment of 3). The Dolphins rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 75.06% rate, as opposed to 70.69%, a differential of 4.37%. Meanwhile, the Ravens rank 9th, moving the chains at a 77.46% rate, as opposed to 73.92% for their opponents, a differential of 3.54%.
This line is too low even before you take into account that the Ravens aren’t as good on the road as they are at home. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-11 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.38 points per game, at home, as opposed to 33-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.03 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. This season alone, they move the chains at a 74.47% rate on the road, as opposed to 76.50% for their opponents, a differential of -2.03%.
The Dolphins are in a horrible spot though, as they have their toughest game of the season next week, as they head to New England. Meanwhile, the Ravens host the Jaguars next week, which will probably be their easiest game of the season. Non-divisional home favorites are 88-107 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, while non-divisional road underdogs are 113-75 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home favorites and teams are 119-96 ATS before being double digit favorites since 2008. Combining these two, teams are 103-63 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m still taking the Dolphins, but I might take the Ravens if the line was 3. It’s that close.
Miami Dolphins 23 Baltimore Ravens 20
Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5