Dallas Cowboys (8-4) at Chicago Bears (5-7)
This line is off. The Bears rank 18th, moving the chains at a 74.74% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -0.06%. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.27% rate, as opposed to 74.30% for their opponents, a differential of 0.96%. Not only should the Cowboys not be favored by more than a field goal here (3.5), I’m not convinced they should even be favored. On top of the line value we’re getting with the Bears, the Cowboys are also 12-27 ATS in week 13 or later as long as Tony Romo is the starter. This is the time of year to fade Romo and I think we’re getting more than enough value to do it. I’m fairly confident in the Bears as long as this line is more than a field goal.
Chicago Bears 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +165
Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5