QB Matt Cassel (Kansas City)
The Chiefs are going back to a very run heavy attack with two talented backs in 2012 and could lead the league in rushing. In 2010, when they did this, Cassel had 27 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, but managed just 3116 yards (6.9 YPA) on 450 attempts. His TD/INT ratio should improve from the 10:9 it was last year, but he also had a 16:16 ratio in 2009 so I’m not expecting 27:7 again. I’m also expecting his YPA to be around where it was last year (6.4) with only 450 or so attempts. Not a lot to get excited about here. Even if in 2010, he wasn’t anything more than a fantasy backup and that was at his best.
Projection: 2940 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 130 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (190 pts standard/232 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
RB Jamaal Charles (Kansas City)
7/26/12: I’m moving Hillis down with the news that the Chiefs will try to have their backs touch the ball combined 500 times, but I’m actually moving Charles up because he’s been cleared for the start of Training Camp and should get the majority of the touches. There will be a 60-40 split or so and Charles, who has averaged 6.1 YPC in his career, could get a career high in touches. There’s major upside with him in the 2nd round, provided he stays healthy and plays close to 100% of his 2010 self.
There’s buy low potential here with Jamaal Charles. The Chiefs are going to try to replicate their 2010 offense so there will be plenty of carries to go around for both Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they should split them evenly like Charles and Thomas Jones did in 2010. Charles has a career 6.1 YPC and figures to be able to make the most of those carries. Peyton Hills will get the goal line carries, but Charles should still have a solid year.
Projection: 250 carries 1250 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 40 catches 320 receiving yards (205 pts standard/245 pts PPR)
RB Peyton Hillis (Kansas City)
7/26/12: The Chiefs reportedly want running backs Peyton Hillis and Jamaal Charles to touch the ball a combined 500 times next season, less than I originally projected (going off the 539 times that Charles and Jones touched the ball combined in 2010). However, they’ll still run a ton so Hillis is a decent RB3, who pass catches and will get the goal line carries. He’s also got a lot of upside since Charles is coming off a torn ACL.
Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combined for 475 carries in 2010. Hillis and Charles could approach that this season running behind a much improved offensive line. Remember, Hillis is less than 2 years removed from rushing for 1177 yards and 11 touchdowns on 270 carries on a stagnant Cleveland offense in 2010. He may not be as talented as Charles, but he catches passes and will get all the goal line carries. An inferior Jones scored 6 times in 2010. Hillis could get in double figures in 2012.
Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 30 catches 220 receiving yards (147 pts standard/177 pts PPR)
WR Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)
8/7/12: I don’t know why Dwayne Bowe is holding out. He can’t be signed to a long term deal anyway. All he’s doing is hurting himself because other guys are impressing in his absence and other guys will have a better grasp of the offense with a new coaching staff in. Jonathan Baldwin has been a stud in his absence and will almost definitely eat into his production this season. All he’s doing is costing himself money on his next contract. He could also end up getting out of shape. He probably won’t miss any regular games, but let him be someone else’s problem this season.
Over the past 2 years, Dwayne Bowe has had 72 catches for 1162 yards and 81 catches for 1159 yards on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. However, I expect those numbers to dip a bit in 2012. The Chiefs have more options with Jonathan Baldwin going into his 2nd year and Tony Moeaki coming back from injury and they figure to run a ton, maybe even more than in 2010. He is, however, the only Kansas City receiver with any fantasy value on a conservative offense with a mediocre quarterback. He should have more than the 5 touchdowns he had last year, but less than the obviously fluky 15 he had in 2010. Aside from 2010, his career high is 7 and after that it’s 5.
Projection: 65 catches 950 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/196 pts PPR)
WR Jonathan Baldwin (Kansas City)
8/7/12: Baldwin didn’t do much as a rookie last year, but he as a 1st round pick and a bad rookie year is already damning for a receiver. Baldwin has been impressing in Bowe’s absence and should be able to nail down a starting job, moving Steve Breaston to the slot. Breaston had 61 catches for 785 yards and 2 touchdowns last year with inferior quarterback play. Baldwin is more talented and definitely has upside as a late round flier. Unfortunately, he’s limited by his quarterback and Bowe’s presence.
Projection: 50 catches 700 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (100 pts standard/150 pts PPR)
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