Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
The Vikings went 13-4 last year, but they needed to go an unprecedented 11-0 in one-score games to do so, which history suggests they won’t repeat in 2023. Their point differential was just -3 and their DVOA was even worse, ranking 27th. On top of that, their roster looks worse going into 2023 than it did a year ago, losing key players like edge defender Za’Darius Smith, interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, cornerback Patrick Peterson, middle linebacker Eric Kendricks, and feature back Dalvin Cook, without adding comparable replacements.
Despite that, the Vikings open the season as pretty sizable favorites, favored by six points here at home against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers figure to be mediocre at best this season, but they probably won’t be as bad as some expect, as they still have talented players on both sides of the ball. This seems like a game they can be competitive in, against a Vikings team that didn’t blow many teams out last season and that got worse over the off-season. Of all the lines this week, this one seems the most off, as my calculated line has Minnesota favored by just a field goal, and on top of that, Minnesota might overlook the Buccaneers with a Thursday Night Football matchup against a much tougher Eagles team on deck (favorites cover at a 45.0% rate before Thursday Night Football), so this is my Pick of the Week.
Minnesota Vikings 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20
Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +6
Confidence: Pick of the Week
Houston Texans (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
The Texans have been arguably the worst team in the league over the past two seasons, with 16 losses by double digits over that span. There’s hope for them to be improved this season, but it might not happen right away. For one, they have a raw rookie quarterback CJ Stroud who could easily struggle in his debut. On top of that, the Texans enter the season with some concerning injuries, including three projected starting offensive linemen and one of their talented off-season acquisitions, safety Jimmie Ward.
Because of that, the Texans could easily suffer another double digit loss this week, on the road against a Ravens team that looks likely to be well above average again this season as long as Lamar Jackson is healthy, having gone 26-13 with Jackson as their starter over the past three seasons. This line is only 9.5, but I think the Ravens should be favored by at least 12, so we’re getting some good line value with the host. This isn’t a big bet, but I think this line is a little short and doesn’t fully take into account Houston’s injuries, so I think it’s worth a bet.
Baltimore Ravens 26 Houston Texans 13
Pick against the spread: Baltimore -9.5
Confidence: Medium
Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
The Browns are my top sleeper team coming into the season. They finished last season 8th in offensive DVOA despite having backup Jacoby Brissett under center for the first eleven games of the season and then having Deshaun Watson struggle for the final six games upon his return. Watson should be better in his first full season in Cleveland in 2023 and the Browns surround him with a great offensive line and running game, as well as an improved receiving corps. Their defense was the bigger problem last season, finishing 23rd in defensive DVOA, but they were much more talented than that, they got significantly better as the season went on, and this off-season they have added even more talent and significantly improved their coaching with Jim Schwartz coming in. Even in the loaded AFC, I would consider the Browns contenders.
The Bengals are obviously contenders as well and I still have them ahead of the Browns, but they are favored by 1.5 points here in Cleveland and the talent level between these two teams is closer than that suggests. On top of that, the Bengals have started slow the past couple seasons because quarterback Joe Burrow was coming back from injury/illness, which is the case again this season, with Burrow missing almost all of training camp with a calf injury that reportedly is still affecting him somewhat. Add all of that together and the Browns have a great chance to pull the small upset at home, in a game in which they should be considered the favorites. The money line and/or the spread are both good values here.
Cleveland Browns 27 Cincinnati Bengals 24 Upset Pick +105
Pick against the spread: Cleveland +1.5
Confidence: Medium
Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
The Rams won the Super Bowl during the 2021 season, but they sold out for years to do that, sacrificing high draft picks and future cap space for the chance to win now. It worked, but now they are paying the price in a big way, in what looks like a cap reset/tank year for this team. About 32.3% of their cap (72.7 million) is dead cap from players who are no longer on the team, with another 28.2% committed to Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald, leaving just 39.5% of the rest of their roster. The total average annual salary of their roster ranks dead last and that is a metric that correlates heavily with win total.
Stafford, Kupp, and Donald are still pretty high level players, but all three are on the wrong side of 30 and coming off of injury plagued seasons, so the Rams came into the season looking like one of the worst teams in the league overall and things have gone from bad to worse with Cooper Kupp hurt again and expected to miss at least this game, if not several more. The Seahawks aren’t a great team, but they’re at least decent and should be favored by more than 4.5 points against a Rams team that is probably one of the worst two or three teams in the league without Kupp. I like the Seahawks a good amount at that number, with my calculated line being Seattle -8.5.
Seattle Seahawks 23 Los Angeles Rams 13
Pick against the spread: Seattle -4.5
Confidence: High
Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)
At full strength, I would say these two teams are about comparable, but the Dolphins have a couple key injuries, with top cornerback Jalen Ramsey and talented left tackle Terron Armstead both out, which gives the Chargers the advantage. I still wouldn’t give the Chargers a big advantage though and, while the Chargers are also at home, they haven’t had much homefield advantage since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, leading to them going just 19-27 ATS at home over that stretch, as opposed to 29-18 ATS on the road. Given that, I think we’re getting a little bit of value with the Dolphins who are underdogs of a full field goal in this matchup. It’s not enough for the Dolphins to be worth betting, but they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.
Los Angeles Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 26
Pick against the spread: Miami +3
Confidence: Low
Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
The Broncos are favored by 3.5 points in this matchup, which seems about right given the slight, but not insignificant edge the Broncos have talent wise. Because of that, I don’t have a strong lean either way, but all things equal I tend to side with underdogs when the line is 3.5, just because +3.5 is the number that hits most often, covering over 53% of the time, which is not a coincidence. Games are decided by three points or fewer about 1 out of 4 times, with 1 out of 6 being decided by exactly a field goal, meaning that a line of 3.5 is actually much higher than most realize; in real probability terms it’s closer to 5.5 or 6 than it is to 3. As a result, odds makers will often use 3.5 to trap bettors into betting the favorite, as bettors don’t realize how high the line actually is. That alone doesn’t make the Raiders bettable, but I would pick them for pick ‘em purposes.
Denver Broncos 27 Las Vegas Raiders 24
Pick against the spread: Las Vegas +3.5
Confidence: None
Carolina Panthers (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
As I’ve mentioned, +3.5 is my favorite line to bet because +3.5 is the number that hits most often, covering over 53% of the time, which is not a coincidence, given how many games are decided by exactly a field goal. In this case, these two teams are closer together in my roster rankings than this line would suggest, which makes +3.5 look like an even more intriguing bet. I don’t want to lock this bet in though because of the possibility that Panthers holdout Brian Burns doesn’t play, which would be a big loss for a Panthers team that already is in worse shape injury wise than their opponents, with talented right guard Austin Corbett out and multiple injuries to key wide receivers. I would take the Panthers at +3.5 either way, but I would need Burns to play at least in some capacity for the Panthers to be bettable.
Update: Brian Burns is likely to play and the Panthers will also have one of their top wide receivers Adam Thielen healthy, so I am comfortable betting the +3.5.
Atlanta Falcons 24 Carolina Panthers 23
Pick against the spread: Carolina +3.5
Confidence: Medium
Tennessee Titans (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
I have the Saints winning 11 games this season and the Titans winning 6, which might make you think that we’re getting good value with the Saints as mere field goal home favorites over the Titans, but these two teams projected records have more to do with differences in their schedules than it does with a big talent gap between these two teams, as I have the Saints just two points ahead of the Titans in my roster rankings. That still leads me to lean towards the favorites at home, but there’s not enough here for that to be bettable.
New Orleans Saints 24 Tennessee Titans 20
Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3
Confidence: Low
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
The Jaguars are by far the best team in their division and have a big talent advantage over the Colts, who are breaking in a raw rookie quarterback while also missing their top offensive player Jonathan Taylor, but it’s still hard to get to the Jaguars deserving to be favored by 5 points on the road. I think the Jaguars are a little overvalued based on how they finished last season, when they had a massive injury edge over most of their opponents, as they were one of the healthiest teams in the league all season.
Now, the Jaguars are without suspended left tackle Cam Robinson, useful rotational defensive lineman Dawuane Smoot, and top interior defender Da’Von Hamilton so, even with Taylor out for the Colts, I wouldn’t say the Jaguars have the significant injury edge in this one. They should still win this game and there’s not enough here for the Colts to be worth betting, but I think this game has a better chance to be close than most think, with the Jaguars being one of the highest bet sides of the week. At the very least, the Colts are a good contrarian pick for pick ‘em purposes this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Indianapolis Colts 20
Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +5
Confidence: Low
Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Washington Commanders (0-0)
I have the Commanders winning just five games this season, but some of that has to do with their tough schedule and I don’t think they’re a terrible team. One game they should almost definitely win is this one, hosting the Cardinals in what should be their easiest game of the season. Not only do the Cardinals have arguably the worst roster in the league, but they’re also starting veteran journeyman Josh Dobbs, who they acquired just a few weeks ago, in place of injured quarterback Kyler Murray.
The Commanders are without talented edge defender Chase Young, but they still shouldn’t have much trouble with the Cardinals in this one. I’m not confident enough to lay the full touchdown with a mediocre Commanders team, but the Cardinals are going to be close to unbettable all season and the Commanders should win this one with relative ease, so they should at the very least be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.
Washington Commanders 23 Arizona Cardinals 13
Pick against the spread: Washington -7
Confidence: Low
Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Here is another +3.5, this time with the Giants being underdogs at home. Like the other +3.5s, I am immediately drawn to the underdog because of how often +3.5 hits. The Cowboys are significantly better than the Giants and I have them four wins better in my previews despite a similar schedule, but I don’t think the difference between these two teams is enough to justify the Cowboys being favored by more than a field goal on the road. There’s not enough here for the Giants to be bettable, but I like them for pick ‘em purposes.
Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 24
Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5
Confidence: Low
San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)
The Steelers are a solid team that is only likely to miss the playoffs because of their schedule and the overall strength of their conference, but there’s still a big gap between them and a team like the 49ers, who should be one of the better teams in the league. The Steelers are getting some points at home, but this line is less than a field goal, which means for me to be confident taking them I would have to give them a pretty good chance of pulling the straight up upset and I think they fall just short of that. I think this line is about right and if this line was a full field goal, I would take the Steelers, but I am going with the 49ers for pick ‘em purposes, as the single most likely outcome of this game is the 49ers winning by a field goal.
San Francisco 49ers 20 Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Pick against the spread: San Francisco -2.5
Confidence: None
Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Here is another line of 2.5, favoring the Bills on the road at the Jets. In this case, I think there is enough of a chance of the Jets pulling the straight up upset for them to be the right side for pick ‘em purposes. My calculated line is Buffalo -1.5, which isn’t much line value and the Bills are still more likely than not to win, which they could easily do by a field goal, so this is still a no confidence pick, but I am taking the Jets for pick ‘em purposes.
Buffalo Bills 24 New York Jets 23
Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2.5
Confidence: None
Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
The Patriots have the big situational edge here, as Super Bowl runner ups like the Eagles tend to struggle in week 1, going just 4-19 ATS since 2000, while the Patriots have much more to prove and could get an emotional boost from Tom Brady’s retirement ceremony at halftime. The Eagles also have to play again in four days on Thursday Night Football and could get caught looking forward to that game (favorites cover at a 45.0% rate before Thursday Night Football). However, I think this line is a little short at Philadelphia -4, as the Eagles massive talent edge over the Patriots should have them as 6-point favorites, in normal circumstances. These aren’t normal circumstances, given the aforementioned situational trends and the Patriots seem like the better side for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t take them with any confidence at this number.
Update: The Patriots will be down three offensive linemen for this game, including top offensive lineman Mike Onwenu. Right tackle Riley Reiff was expected to be out, but Onwenu and fellow guard Cole Strange seemed likely to play. I think that’s going to be too much for the Patriots to overcome in this game, even though they’re in a much better spot situationally. I’m flipping this pick to the Eagles, though still for no confidence.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 New England Patriots 17
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4
Confidence: None
Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
I have these two teams about equal in my roster rankings, with the Bears getting better this off-season after several significant off-season additions, while the Packers are likely to take a step back after getting rid of Aaron Rodgers and turning to unproven Jordan Love, who will also be without his top wide receiver Christian Watson this week due to injury. The Bears have a key injury as well, with talented guard Teven Jenkins out for the first four weeks of the season at least, but without Watson, I would still have these two teams about even. The Bears are at home and only favored by one point, which I think is a little short, but my calculated line of Chicago -2.5 doesn’t cross any key numbers, so I can’t be that confident in them. The single most likely outcome of this game is the Bears winning by a field goal, but the Packers also could easily pull the small upset, so this is a low confidence pick.
Chicago Bears 26 Green Bay Packers 23
Pick against the spread: Chicago -1
Confidence: Low
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