Minnesota Vikings (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
I thought about waiting until we found out Teddy Bridgewater’s status for this one and who the starting quarterback would be for the Vikings, but I have a feeling this line is going to increase closer to game time so I want to lock it in right now at Green Bay -9. If I had to guess, Bridgewater will not play in this one, nursing a sore ankle on a short week, leaving Christian Ponder to be the starter. Once that’s announced, this line could be closer to 10.5-12. Even if Bridgewater plays, it’ll be at less than 100% on a short week after missing valuable practice time going into his 2nd NFL career start on the road. He’s clearly their most talented quarterback, but that might be too much for him right now.
I like the Packers in this one regardless as they’ve been very dominant at home recently. Aaron Rodgers is 21-9-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 27-4 straight up, with an absurd +416 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 13.42 points per game. They also have no distractions on the horizon with a random non-conference game against the Dolphins in Miami up next, while the Vikings will have to deal with the division leading Lions next week in Minnesota. Teams are 47-75 ATS before being 3+ home favorites since 2012 and teams are 57-87 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites. The Packers should be the right side and I’m not waiting around for this line to go up to 10 or higher.
Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 13
Pick against spread: Green Bay -9