Month: January 2023

2022 NFL Conference Championship Picks

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San Francisco 49ers (15-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

The 49ers are underdogs in this game by 2.5 points, but they are the significantly better team in terms of weighted DVOA (+43.9% vs. +26.3%). The Eagles had key injury absences down the stretch that led to their slow finish and they have since gotten much healthier, but the 49ers had even more injury problems early in the season and still finished the year with a higher non-weighted DVOA (+30.9% vs. +27.7%). The Eagles enter this game with a SIC Score that is about six points above their season average, while the 49ers have a SIC Score that is about two points above their season average. 

The 49ers have also played much better on offense since inserting Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy into their starting lineup, leading to them being the hottest team in the league by far, on a 12-game winning streak, with just 4 games decided by fewer than 10 points. We’re getting great value with them as 2.5-point underdogs, as they should be favored by at least a field goal in this game, even on the road. The Eagles have a talented roster, but the 49ers are on another level and are a great bet both against the spread and on the money line at +130.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +2.5

Confidence: High

Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-3)

These two teams are identical in weighted DVOA at +32.4% and this line, which favors the Chiefs at home by 1.5 points, reflects these two teams being even. With that in mind, injuries will likely be the deciding factor in who covers this spread. A look at the injury report would suggest the Chiefs have the significant edge in that department, as they don’t have any key players who are expected not to play, while the Bengals will be missing arguably their three best offensive linemen. In terms of SIC score, the Chiefs have a significant edge (91.7 vs. 83.8).

However, while the Chiefs won’t be missing any key players, how effective star quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be is a significant question in this game as he plays through an ankle injury that cost him part of last week’s game and limited him upon his return. Reports out of practice were good this week and, if he’s close to full strength, the Chiefs should be favored by significantly more than 1.5 points in this game against a banged up Bengals team, but it’s hard to be confident enough in an injured Mahomes for them to be worth betting this week. The Chiefs seem like the better side, but only for pick ‘em purposes.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Cincinnati Bengals 27

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -1.5

Confidence: Low

2022 NFL Divisional Round Picks

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Dallas Cowboys (13-5) at San Francisco 49ers (14-4)

The Cowboys had a 12-5 regular season and won easily in the first round against the Buccaneers. However, the 49ers are a completely different level of competition, as they lead the league with a 38.6% weighted DVOA. Improved health has been a big part of the reason why they’ve been so good of late, after being one of the most injury plagued teams in the league for most of the season, and their SIC score of 90.8 this week is a 8.3-point improvement over their season average. On top of that, their offense has been significantly better since adding Christian McCaffrey and putting Brock Purdy in the starting lineup. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are significantly behind the 49ers in DVOA, ranking 7th at 13.7%, and they have a SIC score of 84.2 that is 1.7 points lower than their season average. Despite that, the 49ers are favored by just 4 points at home, so we’re getting good value with the favorite, as this line should be at least a touchdown, if not more, given the 49ers’ propensity to blow teams out, (16.9-point average margin of victory, 13 of 14 wins by more than 4 points). The 49ers are worth a bet big this week, as I don’t expect this one to be that close.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -4

Confidence: High

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Chiefs are favored by 9.5 points and barely covered that number in their week 10 matchup with the Jaguars, a 10-point win over a Jaguars team that has played much better since, going 7-1 since a 3-7 start, including last week’s playoff win over the Chargers. The conventional thinking is this game should be closer than the first matchup, but that first game also could have been much more of a blowout if the Chiefs didn’t lose the turnover battle by 3, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of yards per play and first down rate, which are much more predictive than turnovers, the Chiefs held the edge by 2.6 and 12.8% respectively. 

The Chiefs also tend to turn it on in the playoffs and blow out opponents that they would have let hang around in the regular season, with six of their eight playoff victories in the Patrick Mahomes era coming by double digits. At the very least, I don’t expect the Chiefs to be as sloppy as they were with turnovers in the first matchup, so, even if the Jaguars are a significantly better team than they were a couple months ago, this game still might not be close, as the first game would not have been as close without the Chiefs’ turnovers. I don’t like the line value we are getting with the Chiefs, but there is a reason this line is still around where it was in the week 10 matchup between these two teams and the Chiefs should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes, if only for a no confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: None

Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) at Buffalo Bills (14-3)

A few weeks ago, I thought the Bengals had a good chance to pull the small upset against the Bills, which they looked on their way to doing before the game was suspended. The Bengals still only narrowly trail the Bills in weighted DVOA (34.9% vs. 25.0%), but things are going to be much tougher for them this time around, for a couple reasons. For one, this game is in Buffalo rather than Cincinnati, with the league unfairly not making this a neutral site game as they would with Bills/Chiefs, even though the Bengals could have hosted this game had they won the suspended first matchup. 

That could give the Bengals some added motivation, but I’m not sure if more motivation is needed at this point in the season and a bigger concern for the Bengals, beyond the location of this game, is the absence of arguably their top-3 offensive linemen, a pair of whom, left tackle Jonah Williams and right guard Alex Cappa, both played in the previous matchup. Without them and right tackle La’El Collins, who went down the week before the suspended game, the Bengals will have a tough time going into Buffalo and winning. This line is pretty high at 5.5, but my calculated line is -7, so the Bills should still be the right side at that number. I wouldn’t bet on this, but I like the Bills for pick ‘em purposes.

Buffalo Bills 31 Cincinnati Bengals 24

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -5.5

Confidence: Low

New York Giants (10-7-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

The Eagles are 7.5-point home favorites in this matchup against the Giants. A few weeks ago, I would happily bet the Eagles at that number. The Giants made the playoffs in large part due to a weak schedule, they had unimpressive margins of victories, with 8 of 9 regular season wins coming by 8 points or fewer, and they went just 2-6 against playoff qualifiers, while the Eagles won 13 of their first 14 games, with 8 wins coming by margins of 8 points or more. The Eagles were 7-point favorites on the road against the Giants in week 14 and came out with a 26-point blowout victory.

However, the Eagles have slowed down in recent weeks due to injuries and now rank just 5th in weighted DVOA at 21.7%. They’ll get Josh Sweat and Lane Johnson this week, but there is no guarantee the latter will be 100% and, while quarterback Jalen Hurts returned two weeks ago before the bye, he did not look 100% and is not a guarantee to play at his highest level this week either. 

Meanwhile, it’s the Giants who are as healthy as they’ve been all season, with a SIC score that is 4.3 points above their season average, and they are playing their best football of the season as a result. In particular, their defense has benefited significantly from the return of Leonard Williams, Xavier McKinney, and Adoree Jackson, none of whom played in the Giants’ blowout loss to the Eagles a few weeks ago. If I knew Hurts and Johnson would be 100% I would pick the Eagles, but, since I don’t, I am taking the Giants for a no confidence pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7.5

Confidence: None

2022 NFL Wild Card Round Picks

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New York Giants (9-7-1) at Minnesota Vikings (13-4)

The Vikings have the better record of these two teams, but the Giants have the significant edge in weighted DVOA (+0.5% vs. -18.6%), despite the fact that they have had significantly more injury problems this season than the Vikings. The Giants are not fully healthy, but they are healthier this week than they’ve been for much of the season, while the Vikings are moving in the wrong direction injury wise, losing several key players late in the season, most notably stud right tackle Brian O’Neill. Despite that, the Vikings are favorites of a field goal at home, suggesting they are the better team. My calculated line actually has the Giants favored by a field goal on the road, so we’re getting significant line value with the visitors, making them worth a large bet, both against the spread and on the money line.

New York Giants 27 Minnesota Vikings 24 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: High

Seattle Seahawks (9-8) at San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

This line is pretty high at 9.5, but the 49ers are on a 10-game winning streak right now and usually win big, with 10 of their 13 wins this season coming by double digits. One of their closer wins was an 8-point win over the Seahawks, but that game was in Seattle and wasn’t as close as the final score suggests, while the 49ers won by 20 in San Francisco earlier this season in a game that was not competitive. The 49ers also were not as healthy in those two games as they are now and, in large part due to improved health, the 49ers lead the league with a weighted DVOA of 38.6%, a big edge over the 15th ranked Seahawks (+4.1%). My calculated line has the 49ers being favored by 13 points, so the 49ers should be bettable at 9.5, even if only for a small play.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Seattle Seahawks 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -9.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins (9-8) at Buffalo Bills (13-3)

These two teams played a pair of close divisional games earlier this season, with the Bills winning at home by three and the Dolphins winning at home by two. However, Tua Tagovailoa played in both games, which will not be the case in this game started by backup Skylar Thompson, and, even with Tagovailoa playing most of the season, the Dolphins have been a significantly worse team than the Bills this season in terms of weighted DVOA (+34.9% vs. +5.9%).

With that in mind, it’s safe to say this game in Buffalo won’t be nearly as close as the first two meetings between these teams. This line reflects that though, favoring the Bills by 14, and I actually think that’s a little high, with my calculated line at Buffalo -12. Because of that, I am going to take the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a no confidence pick, as the Bills could easily win by more than two scores if they play their best.

Buffalo Bills 27 Miami Dolphins 14

Pick against the spread: Miami +14

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens (10-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)

Franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson remains out for the Ravens this week and they are 3-8 without him over the past two seasons, but they haven’t gotten blown out in most of those games, losing by more than 7 points just 3 times in those 11 games. In fact, the Ravens have lost just 7 games total by more than 7 points over the past 4 seasons. That’s relevant considering this line favors the Bengals by 8.5 points.

One of those instances of losing by more than 7 points came against the Bengals last week, but the Ravens rested several key starters in that game and still only lost by 11, so it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see them keep this one significantly closer, with a lineup that is significantly healthier around the quarterback position than it has been for most of the season. The Bengals, meanwhile, have lost a pair of starting offensive linemen, La’El Collins and Alex Cappa, to injury in the past few weeks. There isn’t quite enough here for the Ravens to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +8.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

The Chargers have the better record of these two teams, but the Jaguars have a significant edge in point differential (+54 vs. +7). The Chargers have played significantly better in recent weeks and have narrowed the gap between these two teams in weighted DVOA, but the Jaguars still have the slight edge (+5.2% vs. +2.2%) and the Chargers’ improved play in recent weeks is largely because of their improved health, which is now going in the other direction with the absence of talented wide receiver Mike Williams. 

The Chargers are still healthier than they’ve been for most of the season, but they’re also still missing several key players, while the Jaguars remain one of the healthiest teams in the league, which is one of the biggest reasons they’ve had a better DVOA and point differential than Chargers this season. Despite that, they are home underdogs of 2.5 points, so we’re getting good line value with the Jaguars, who are worth betting against the spread and on the money line at +120. I would also likely increase this bet if this line moved up to a full field goal.

Jacksonville Jaguars 30 Los Angeles Chargers 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Dallas Cowboys (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys by 16 in Dallas earlier this season and are now 2.5-point home underdogs, but that’s understandable when you consider that these two teams last faced back in week 1 and the Cowboys have significantly outplayed the Buccaneers since then, ranking 7th in weighted DVOA (13.7%), while the Buccaneers rank 25th in weighted DVOA (-11.6%). Injuries have been a big part of the reason why the Buccaneers have underachieved this season and they are significantly healthier now than they have been for most of the season, but my calculated line still has the Cowboys favored by a couple points, so we’re not getting significant line value with the Buccaneers.

That being said, I am still somewhat confident in the Buccaneers for pick ‘em purposes, purely because of Tom Brady’s history in big games. In his career, Tom Brady led teams are 60-33 ATS as underdogs of favorites or less than 3 points and 46-14 ATS against teams with a better record than his. This season has been different than the rest of Brady’s career in many ways and he is 3-6 ATS and 1-3 ATS respectively in those two situations, but they are legitimately a significantly healthier team now than most of the season. There’s not quite enough here for the Buccaneers to be worth betting against the spread unless we get a full field goal, but the money line is a good value, as the Buccaneers have a great chance of pulling the small upset.

Update: This line has showed up at +3 in some places. I think the Buccaneers are bettable at that number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3

Confidence: Medium

2022 Week 18 NFL Picks

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Arizona Cardinals (4-12) at San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

This line is high at 14, but the 49ers shouldn’t have too much trouble covering. Of their 12 wins this season, eight have come by more than 14 points and they lead the league in weighted DVOA (+36.0%). The Cardinals, meanwhile, rank 28th in weighted DVOA at -19.1% and the gap between these two teams is even bigger than that suggests, with the Cardinals being in much worse injury shape. 

While the Cardinals are starting a fourth string quarterback and have a SIC score of 66.4, 12.7 points worse than their season average, the 49ers have gotten much healthier in recent weeks, with a SIC score of 87.8 this week, 5.4 points above their season average. This line would probably be higher if there wasn’t concern the 49ers could pull key players in the second half of a blowout the week before the playoffs, but the 49ers have a good chance to cover this spread even if they do that, so the 49ers are my Pick of the Week this week.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Arizona Cardinals 10

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -14

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Houston Texans (2-13-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1)

This line, favoring the Colts by 2.5 points at home, suggests the Colts are the slightly better team, but, while both teams are awful, the Texans have a significant edge in weighted DVOA (-25.5% vs. -33.3%) and are the healthier team in terms of SIC score (82.7 vs. 79.6). My calculated line has the Texans favored by a couple points and, while there’s not enough here for a big bet, the Texans are worth a bet against the spread and on the money line.

Update: This line has moved up to 3, so I am increasing the confidence of this bet.

Houston Texans 20 Indianapolis Colts 17 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Houston +3

Confidence: High

Tennessee Titans (7-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)

The Titans have lost 6 straight games after a 7-3 start, but that’s not that surprising. as the Titans’ wins were never that impressive. None of the Titans’ wins came against teams that currently have a winning record and almost all came by slim margins of victory. Only two of the Titans’ wins have come by more than a touchdown and neither win was as impressive as that suggests, as they needed a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the terrible Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. 

Overall, the Titans rank just 26th in weighted DVOA (-10.2%), in part because they have gotten progressively more injury plagued throughout the season, resulting in a SIC score of 65.4 for this game, 11.6 points below their season average. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have a SIC score of 89.2 and have been one of the healthier teams in the league this season, a big part of the reason why they rank 15th (1.6%) in weighted DVOA. This line is pretty high at 6.5, but the Jaguars have won by 7 points or more in 6 of their 8 wins this season and the short-handed Titans are very overmatched in this game, with my calculated line being Jacksonville -9.5. The Jaguars aren’t worth a big play this week, but they are bettable.

Jacksonville Jaguars 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions (8-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Normally, the Packers are a good bet at home, as they are 50-22 ATS all-time at home in games started and finished by Aaron Rodgers, who has a QB rating that is 10 points higher at home than on the road, which is significantly above average. However, the Packers are favored by 5 points in this game, which seems to compensate too much for their homefield advantage. The Lions have the higher weighted DVOA (13.4% vs. 9.4%) despite having an average SIC score that is about 3 points lower than the Packers on the season and now they are about even in SIC score (86.3 vs. 86.1) this week, so they should be considered the better team and a strong candidate to pull the upset, even in Green Bay. Even if they can’t win outright, I like the Lions chances of keeping this within 5 points enough for them to be worth a small bet this week.

Green Bay Packers 26 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against the spread: Detroit +5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams (5-11) at Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

The Seahawks are favored by 6 points here at home, but they arguably should be favored by significantly more, as they are the significantly better team in terms of weighted DVOA (+6.6% vs. -8.5%) and are also significantly healthier in terms of SIC score (86.7 vs. 68.5). The Rams played the Seahawks somewhat close in Los Angeles earlier this season, losing only by 4, but the Seahawks won the first down rate battle by 6.5% and the yards per play battle by 1.6 in that game and now they are at home, so they shouldn’t have much trouble blowing out the Rams.The Seahawks aren’t worth a big play, but my calculated line has them favored by 9 points, so there’s enough here for the Seahawks to at least be bettable.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Los Angeles Rams 17

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6

Confidence: Medium

Carolina Panthers (6-10) at New Orleans Saints (7-9)

The Saints have the significant edge in schedule adjusted DVOA in this matchup (6.1% vs. -6.9%) and are trending in a much better direction injury wise, with a SIC score this week that is 2.1 points above their season average, while the Panthers are 2.6 points below their season average. Despite that, the Saints are favored at home against the Panthers by just a field goal in some places. At that number, they are worth a big bet and they would be bettable in a smaller amount at 3.5 as well.

New Orleans Saints 20 Carolina Panthers 13

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -3

Confidence: High

Minnesota Vikings (12-4) at Chicago Bears (3-13)

This game is a tough call. On one hand, the Vikings are 6-point road favorites despite only having an average margin of victory of just 5.8 points, leading to them ranking just 29th in weighted DVOA at -19.4%. On the other hand, the Bears are so bad that even the Vikings might be able to beat them fairly easily. Not only do they rank 31st in weighted DVOA (-31.3%), but they are without their most important player, quarterback Justin Fields, as well as other key personnel, leading to them having a SIC score of 78.6, 5.4 points below their season average.

Meanwhile, the Vikings remain one of the healthiest teams in the league, as they have all season, with a SIC score of 89.7 this week, in line with their season average. My calculated line has the Vikings favored by just 3.5 points, but that might not fully take into account how bad this injury plagued Bears team is, now led by one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, Nathan Peterman. I’m taking the Vikings for pick ‘em purposes, even at 6, but this is one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Minnesota Vikings 24 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -6

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8) at Atlanta Falcons (6-10)

In normal circumstances, the Falcons would not be 4-point favorites this week, but there’s a chance the Buccaneers pull key players at some point in this game, as this game means nothing to them in standings, locked into the #4 seed in the NFC. My calculated line for normal circumstances is a pick ‘em, which actually doesn’t give us much line value with the Buccaneers if they do pull players, but I actually expect their starters to play most of the game as they try to build momentum for the playoffs, so I would take the Buccaneers would pick ‘em purposes. It’s hard to have any confidence in them this week though, given that this game is meaningless to them other than for momentum.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +4

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Denver Broncos (4-12)

It’s tough to pick a side in this one, as this game would become meaningless for the Chargers in the likely event that the Ravens lose earlier in the day. This line reflects that, as the 4-12 Broncos are 3-point home favorites. My calculated line would be Chargers -6 in normal circumstances, so we’re getting significant line value with them in the off chance the Ravens win and, if the Ravens lose and the Chargers don’t take this game seriously, I think this line should be about +3, so it’s not like we’re on the wrong side even in a worst case scenario. This is still a no confidence pick, but the Chargers are the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Denver Broncos 19 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers +3

Confidence: None

New York Giants (9-6-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

The Giants are another team with nothing to play for this week, locked into the #6 seed in the NFC. They are claiming they are treating this as a normal game, but the odds makers aren’t buying it, making the Eagles 14-point favorites. I am going to take the Giants at that number just because they could surprise people and play starters longer than expected, while the Eagles could pull injured quarterback Jalen Hurts if they get a big lead, but I can’t take the Giants with any confidence, given that this game is meaningless for them.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +14

Confidence: None

Cleveland Browns (7-9) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)

This game is a tough call because this line is about right, favoring the Steelers at home by 2.5 points, suggesting they’re the slightly better team. The Browns have the edge in weighted DVOA (7.8% vs. 3.4%), but the Steelers are significantly healthier in terms of SIC score (90.1 vs. 82.3). The most likely outcome of this game is probably the Steelers winning by a field goal at home, so I am taking the Steelers for pick ‘em purposes at -2.5, but at 3, I might take the Browns, that’s how close this one is for me.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 Cleveland Browns 16

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2.5

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-10)

The Chiefs are the significantly better team in weighted DVOA (+24.9% vs. -4.6%) and significantly healthier in terms of SIC score (93 vs. 79.6), but this line takes that into account pretty well, favoring the Chiefs by 9.5 points on the road. In fact, that is exactly where my calculated line is, so this is one of the tougher calls of the week. I am taking the Chiefs just because them winning by 10 seems like the most likely outcome of this game, but this is a no confidence pick for pick ‘em purposes only.

Kansas City Chiefs 34 Las Vegas Raiders 24

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: None

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)

The Ravens are just 3-7 without Lamar Jackson over the past two seasons and won’t have him for this matchup in Cincinnati, but they haven’t gotten blown out in most of those games, losing by more than 7 points just twice in those 10 games. In fact, the Ravens have lost just 6 games total by more than 7 points over the past 4 seasons. That’s relevant considering this line favors the Bengals by 9 points. 

Even without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have a talented enough roster to keep this close and, aside from Jackson being out, the Ravens are actually much healthier than they’ve been most of the season, with a SIC score 3.4 points higher than their season average. The Ravens aren’t quite worth betting this week against a Bengals team that is legitimately one of the best in the NFL, but the Ravens should still be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and could easily keep this as a one-score game.

Update: The Ravens are surprisingly resting some key starters in this game to rest up before the playoffs, including tight end Mark Andrews and JK Dobbins. This line has moved up to 11.5 to compensate, but I don’t think that’s enough so I am switching this pick to the Bengals, albeit for a no confidence pick.

Cincinnati Bengals 24 Baltimore Ravens 12

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -11.5

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys (12-4) at Washington Commanders (7-9)

This line has moved up to favoring the Cowboys by 7 points on the road because the Commanders are going with rookie third string quarterback Sam Howell, a 5th round pick making his first career start this week, but I think he could be a serviceable option and the Commanders haven’t had much better than serviceable under center most of this season. They still are talented enough around the quarterback to rank 20th in weighted DVOA at -4.4%, which isn’t good, but it isn’t so bad that they shouldn’t be underdogs of this many points at home, even against the Cowboys team that ranks 6th in weighted DVOA at 22.1%. There’s not quite enough here for the Commanders to be worth betting, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Dallas Cowboys 21 Washington Commanders 16

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Low

New York Jets (7-9) at Miami Dolphins (8-8)

Both of these teams will be starting backup quarterbacks this week, but the oddsmakers seem to think the Dolphins will fare better with their backup than the Jets will, moving this line from a pick ‘em to now favoring the Dolphins at home by a field goal. That’s surprising, as the Jets have an experienced option in Joe Flacco, while the Dolphins will be starting 7th round rookie Skylar Thompson. Neither option is that inspiring, but it’s surprising the Dolphins are favored by a full field goal with Thompson under center. My calculated line has the Dolphins favored by just 1 point, so we’re getting some line value with the Jets, though not enough for them to be bettable.

Update: This line has moved up to 4 and I think the Jets are bettable at that number, or at 3.5, with 1 in 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +4

Confidence: Medium

New England Patriots (8-8) at Buffalo Bills (12-3)

This line favors the Bills by seven points at home against the Patriots, but they have a significant enough edge in weighted DVOA (29.4% vs. -0.7%) that they should be favored by more. They have 19 wins by more than 7 points over the past two seasons, including 8 this season and this looks likely to be another one of those big victories. There isn’t quite enough here for the Bills to be worth betting at -7, but my calculated line is Buffalo -9.5, so they are the better side for pick ‘em purposes and I would consider a bet if this line happened to drop to 6.5.

Buffalo Bills 27 New England Patriots 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -7

Confidence: Low