Month: September 2015

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (2-0)

The Saints were one of the best teams in the league that didn’t make the playoffs in 2014, finishing 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. However, they had a very rough off-season, getting rid of Kenny Stills, Ben Grubbs, and Jimmy Graham on offense and Junior Galette on defense. They added CJ Spiller, Max Unger, Andrus Peat, Brandon Browner and Stephone Anthony, but it was still a tough off-season for them. Things have only gotten worse as the season has started, as the Saints are 0-2 and rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, getting blown out in Arizona and then losing by a touchdown at home to Tampa Bay. Without Stills and Graham, they have arguably the worst receiving corps in football. Their defense is even worse without Galette and has been missing starters Jairus Byrd, Dannell Ellerbe, Anthony Spencer, and Keenan Lewis with injury. Lewis and Ellerbe are expected back this week, but they aren’t very good.

Now the Saints are going to be without quarterback Drew Brees, easily their most important player, with a shoulder injury, forcing 34-year-old career journeyman backup Luke McCown into action with one of the worst receiving corps in football helping him and one of the worst defenses in football supporting him. If the Saints are going to keep this game close, it’s going to be on the ground, but, as their roster will be in this game, they are one of the worst teams in the league. I don’t think 8 points is too many for Carolina to be favored by, even with Luke Kuechly out with injury, though I’m not confident at all.

Carolina Panthers 27 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -8

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-0)

This is the toughest game of the week for me. The Cowboys usually struggle at home, going 20-31 ATS at home since 2009. However, they are home underdogs here and, while that’s been a rarity, they are 6-3 ATS as home underdogs. The Cowboys are only home underdogs because their offense that was essentially injury free in 2014 is now missing both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for an extended period of time. On top of that, they are also missing their top cornerback Orlando Scandrick and their top three defensive ends (Greg Hardy, Randy Gregory, and Jeremy Mincey) on a defense that wasn’t that good to begin with, though having Sean Lee back from injury after he missed all of last season has been huge.

The Falcons could overlook the Cowboys because of how banged up they are. Remember, while the Falcons are 2-0, they are a few plays away from being 0-2. They rank just 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the also 2-0 Cowboys rank 6th. It’s only two weeks, but that’s certainly consistent with what happened last season, when the Cowboys ranked 8th and the Falcons ranked 23rd. Of course, the Cowboys are way more banged up now than they were then so I’m not confident at all, but I am taking them.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Dallas Cowboys 23

Pick against the spread: Dallas +1.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)

This game had the biggest line movement from last week to this week of any line that didn’t involve an injured quarterback, as the Jets have gone from 3.5 point home underdogs to 2.5 point home favorites here this week. I usually love to fade huge line movements like that because they tend to be overreactionary and this one is no exception. Some of that movement is understandable, as the Eagles lost three important defensive starters, Cedric Thornton, Kiko Alonso, and Mychal Kendricks, with injury last week and couldn’t do anything offensively against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Jets went into Indianapolis and won by the final score of 20-7, backing up an impressive 31-10 week 1 win over the Browns.

However, if the Eagles had hit a makeable field goal in Atlanta week 1, they’d very likely be 1-1 right now and we wouldn’t be too worried about them. Meanwhile, the Jets have been overly reliant on winning the turnover battle through 2 weeks. They’ve had a +4 turnover margin in both games thus far, playing a huge part in their success, but that’s very tough to sustain. Teams that have a +4 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week.

None of this is to say that the line shouldn’t have moved somewhat, as the Eagles are missing essential defensive personnel and their offense has struggled in Sam Bradford’s first year in town, while the Jets have proven they are at least a decent team. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. He’s also had solid offensive play around him and new head coach Todd Bowles has this defense playing well too. However, they’ll be without wide receiver Eric Decker in this one, while running back Chris Ivory is going to be a gametime decision, and I think we’re getting a good deal getting a few points with the Eagles. I wouldn’t put money on it, but the Eagles are my pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

The Bills were seen as a breakout squad after they defeated the Colts week 1. However, that win doesn’t look as good now that the Jets beat the Colts in Indianapolis and the Bills were also beaten pretty convincingly at home by the Patriots last week. They have one of the best defenses in football, but they also have one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league in Tyrod Taylor and a weak offensive line on an all-around poor offense. They’re an average team at best and could easily finish below .500 if they have more significant defensive injuries than they’re used to. They’ve had very good luck in terms of their defensive stars staying healthy over the past few years.

Miami also lost last week, doing so in surprising and embarrassing fashion in Jacksonville. The Dolphins didn’t look great to start the season, going 1-1 and finishing 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite playing a pair of teams in Washington and Jacksonville that aren’t very good. However, it’s somewhat excusable because both games were on the road and it’s very possible that when we look back on this season, the Miami loss in Jacksonville looks like a fluke. It’s still very early in the season and I don’t like to change my views on teams quickly. I had them winning the AFC East coming into the season, after finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential last season and improving their team this off-season. They might not do that anymore because New England has looked very good through 2 games, but they could still certainly be a playoff team. They’re better than Buffalo and they could actually very easily be 2-0 right now if a couple things, including a missed makeable field goal, went differently against Jacksonville.

Given that and given that this line only favors Miami by 2.5 points, Miami appears to be a pretty obvious choice. Not only does this line suggest that the Bills are the better team, but it can also be covered with a victory by a field goal. However, I’m not too confident in the Dolphins this week for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that they’ll be missing talented left tackle Branden Albert with injury. The second reason has to do with scheduling. The Bills lucked out not having to go on the road until week 3, while the Dolphins were unlucky getting stuck with two road games. It’s not just that two road games are a tougher two weeks than two home games. Teams that don’t play at home until week 3 tend to be less refreshed than their opponent when they finally are home, going 22-43 ATS during that week 3 game since 1989. Meanwhile, teams that don’t play on the road until week 3 are 40-27 ATS in that week 3 road game. I still like the Dolphins here, but I don’t think I’d put money on it.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

Both of these teams won as home underdogs last week, pushing themselves to 1-1. However, I think the Browns are a significantly better team than the Raiders. The Browns have noted issues in the passing game and minimal offensive skill position talent, but they have one of the best offensive lines in football and a solid defense. The Raiders’ roster is still much thinner on talent. They were able to knock off the Baltimore in last second, upset fashion last week, but I think that will prove to be more of a fluke than anything when we look back at their season. This line (Cleveland -3.5) suggests that these two teams are essentially even, which I disagree with.

The Raiders are also on the road now, where they haven’t won since week 11 of 2013. They were given a gift by the league scheduler when they were given two home games to start the season. Not only does that increase your chances of getting some wins, even some fluky wins, early, but, when you do go on the road in week 3, you tend to cover the spread because you’re the more rested squad. Teams who have their first road game of the season week 3 are 40-27 ATS since 1989. Still, it’s really hard to like the Raiders on the road here, especially as a Pacific Time Zone team playing in a 1 PM ET start time game in the Eastern Time Zone. On top of that, the Raiders are 8-23 ATS off of a win since 2009. The Browns should be able to beat them pretty easily.

Cleveland Browns 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)

A popular pick to win the NFC again this season, the Seattle Seahawks have started the season 0-2. It’s not that bad though and they have a very good chance to bounce back in a huge way this week for a variety of reasons. For one, they haven’t really played that badly, losing in overtime as small road favorites against a decent St. Louis team and then losing by 10 in Green Bay, where the Packers are borderline unstoppable.

Now they return home for their first game of the season. It’s typically bad to have your home opener week 3 because teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989. However, the Seahawks have had such a strong homefield advantage over the past few years that it’ll still be home sweet home. Since Russell Wilson arrived in 2012, they are 26-3 at home (20-9 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 13.34 points per game, as opposed to 16-13 on the road (17-12 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 5.72 points per game.

The Seahawks are also 10-3 ATS off of a loss since 2012. I know that trend didn’t predict the outcome last week correctly, but that’s not a reason to ignore it, especially with the Seahawks returning home and especially with Kam Chancellor returning from a holdout. 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous season typically play well week 3 anyway, going 18-9 ATS since 2002. I’m not confident in the Seahawks because this line is too high for me to be confident at 15, even with Jay Cutler out for the Bears. Covering that line is a tough task for a team that hasn’t really gotten their offense going and that is playing their first home game of the season week 3, against a Chicago team playing their first road game of the season (40-27 ATS since 1989). The Seahawks should be the right side though.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Chicago Bears 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -15

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-0)

Green Bay’s home success over the past few years is really remarkable and last week even the Seahawks couldn’t beat them there. I don’t give the inferior Chiefs much chance. As long as Aaron Rodgers starts (minus any games he’s been knocked out very early with injuries), the Packers are 28-11-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 36-4 straight up, with an absurd +579 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.48 points per game.

I really think you can’t just use the standard 3 points for Green Bay’s homefield advantage. You need to use like 4, 5, or 6 points at least. If we assume that, then the only way we’re not getting line value is if Kansas City is only a couple points worse than the Packers. Even with the Packers missing key parts from an offense that had virtually no injuries last season, with Jordy Nelson and Bryan Bulaga out and Eddie Lacy and Davante Adams expected to play, but not 100%, this is still a very good team, especially at home. 7 points is too low.

The Packers are also in a great spot, with a trip to San Francisco on deck. That’s means the Packers really have no upcoming distractions. The early line on that game is 6.5 points. Teams are 104-75 ATS since 2010 before being 4+ point road favorites and 69-47 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point road favorites. On top of that, 6+ point home favorites are 81-50 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites since 2002. I like the Packers a good amount this week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Through 2 games, the Arizona Cardinals rank #1 in the league in rate of moving the chains differential. It’s only been two games, against a schedule that hasn’t been tough (New Orleans and Chicago), and it’s important not to forget that they ranked 17thiin that category in 2014. However, Carson Palmer has played very well in his return from injury and the Arizona defense also looks good again, despite some off-season losses. Again, they’ve had a weak schedule, but now they get big free agent acquisition guard Mike Iupati back from injury and I don’t think the 49ers are much better than the teams the Cardinals have already destroyed this year.

The 49ers started the season out well, beating Minnesota at home week 1, but then last week in Pittsburgh they looked like the bottom dwelling team most expected them to be this season, following an 8-win 2014 season and an off-season full of losses. I think the 49ers’ play week 2 is more representative of their talent level and how their season will go. As a result, I think we’re getting line value with the Cardinals as only 6.5 point home favorites. This line kind of reminds me of the line in San Francisco’s game in Pittsburgh last week, when they were 6.5 point road underdogs and got blown out. Pittsburgh and Arizona have similar talent levels.

It does help the 49ers that they are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 117-81 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 96-55 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 197-200 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.25 points per game, as opposed to 282-395 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

However, the 49ers are also in a bad spot, with a home game against the Green Bay Packers, one of the biggest games of their season, on deck. The early line has San Francisco as 6.5 point home underdogs, an appropriate line and bad news for the 49ers’ chances this week. Since 2012, teams are 65-105 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-73 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-48 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. The reason for all three of those trends is the same: it’s very tough for NFL players to be completely focused with a huge home game on deck. Unlike last week, when I took Pittsburgh for a big play against San Francisco, I can’t bring myself to put money on the Cardinals this week because there is conflicting stuff, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 20 San Francisco 49ers 10

Pick against the spread: Arizona -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

The Colts lost last week at home to the Jets, but they are 14-2 ATS in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era off of a loss. I mentioned their dominance off of a loss in recent years last week and it didn’t work out for me, but I still like their chances of bouncing back this week for a number of reasons. Last week’s game did show the Jets to be better than most, including myself, thought they were. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues his solid play from the past 2 years, despite his age, and is arguably the best quarterback the Jets have had since Chad Pennington was healthy, while first year head coach Todd Bowles has the defense playing well. That game also showed the Colts to be worse than most thought, as they have serious issues on the offensive line and on defense, especially with several significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Greg Toler and Darius Butler remain out for this game and those are their #2 and #3 cornerbacks, while top defensive lineman Arthur Jones was knocked out for the season before it even began.

However, there were also a lot of fluky elements to the Jets’ win in Indianapolis. The Jets won the turnover battle by 4, which tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams who have a -4 turnover margin have, on average, a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. The Colts are -7 in turnovers on the season, but that should improve going forward and that will have a noticeable effect in the standings and on the scoreboard. They also get Vontae Davis back from injury, after he missed more than half of last week’s loss with a concussion he suffered mid-game. He’s hands down their best defensive player and more important to this team than anyone other than Andrew Luck, so him being knocked out was a big deal.

Besides, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous year are usually a safe bet, as they’ve gone 18-9 ATS week 1 since 2002. The Colts have never lost 3 straight regular season games in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era and I don’t expect that to happen this week. In fact, I expect the Colts to bounce back in a very big way. The Titans are also in a bad spot, playing their first home game of the season week 3. Teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989.

On top of that, the Colts have always taken care of business in the division over the past few years. A 10-12 team outside of the division since 2013, the Colts have been propped up by a 12-0 record (12-0 ATS) against their weak division. They’ve always played weak opponents, especially weak divisional opponents, well, but have struggled mightily against non-divisional opponents, especially strong non-divisional opponents. The Colts are 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later since 2012. I know the Titans are technically 1-1 and it’s only week 3, but the logic holds.

The Titans are an improved team over last year’s 2-win team, adding Brian Orakpo, Da’Norris Searcy, and Perrish Cox on defense and Marcus Mariota on offense, but they’re still the type of opponent the Colts usually beat easily, especially with top offensive lineman Chance Warmack out with injury. I am concerned about Trent Cole’s absence for the Colts and the Titans secretly being a solid team, but, and I know I said this last week, but I like the Colts’ chances of bouncing back in a big way this week, this time against a below average divisional opponent.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Denver Broncos (2-0) at Detroit Lions (0-2)

This game had a major line movement from last week to this week, as what was an even line last week now favors the visiting Denver Broncos by 3.5. I think that’s an overreaction. The Broncos won in Kansas City last week, but Peyton Manning still doesn’t look good and they could have easily lost, if not for a late, fluky fumble recovery touchdown. The Broncos have a strong team around Manning, particularly on defense, but I don’t think they deserve to be 3.5 point favorites here in Detroit. Road favorites are 15-28 ATS off of a Thursday night win since 2002 anyway, probably because hearing how great you are for 10 days after a Thursday night win, going into a seemingly easy game, can really hurt your focus.

The Lions are 0-2, but I’m still not convinced they’re a bad team. Their defense obviously misses Ndamukong Suh, who left as a free agent, and DeAndre Levy, who will miss his 3rd straight game to start the season this week with a hip problem, but they have Stephen Tulloch back after missing most of last season with injury and their offense is also healthier than it was last season too, with guys like Calvin Johnson and Larry Warford healthy. They’ve faced a pair of solid football teams (San Diego and Minnesota) thus far, both on the road, both games in which they were the underdog to begin with. The Lions probably won’t be an 11-win team again and could easily not be a playoff team again, but they’re better than this line suggests. Besides, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the year before are 18-9 ATS week 3 since 2002.

Detroit is in a bad spot, playing their first home game of the season week 3. Teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning led teams have always been great in night games like this one, going 33-17 ATS in primetime games since 2002, for what that’s worth. The Broncos also have the easier game on deck, as they host the Vikings next week, while the Lions have to go to Seattle. I’m not making a big play on Detroit or anything, but I’m taking the 3.5 points because they’re too good to pass up here.

Denver Broncos 20 Detroit Lions 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Low

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