Month: March 2013

Two year mock draft

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Draft

Rules

  • Prospects from 2012 and 2013 are eligible
  • This is based on how players were seen as prospects. We know Russell Wilson is awesome now, but he went in the 3rd round so he won’t go in the 1st round here.
  • 2013 needs and current rosters are taken into account.
  • A team cannot draft a player currently on their roster because that wouldn’t make any sense.

1. Kansas City Chiefs- QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

This is pretty obvious. The Chiefs just traded for Alex Smith, but they wouldn’t have done that if a prospect like Andrew Luck were available to them #1 overall.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars- QB Robert Griffin (Baylor)

This is equally obvious. The Jaguars may or may not have interest in Geno Smith at #2, but they’d definitely have interest in Robert Griffin if he were available.

3. Oakland Raiders- QB Geno Smith (West Virginia)

I have the Raiders taking Geno Smith in my regular mock and he makes sense here for them too. I don’t think they’d take Matt Kalil or Trent Richardson and I think they’ll see Smith as more valuable to them than any defensive player in either draft class.

4. Philadelphia Eagles- OT Matt Kalil (USC)

The Eagles will probably take Eric Fisher at #4 if available. Matt Kalil is better than not just Eric Fisher, but also Luke Joeckel. He’d go #1 in 2013 if he were in this draft class. The Eagles would take him at 4 in a heartbeat.

5. Detroit Lions- RB Trent Richardson (Alabama)

The Lions have Reggie Bush as a change of pace back and Mikel Leshoure as a between the tackles guy, but they love taking the best available prospect and I don’t think they would pass on Trent Richardson.

6. Cleveland Browns- CB Morris Claiborne (LSU)

The Browns will be hoping that DeMarcus Milliner falls to them at 6 this year as cornerback is their biggest need. In this mock, they get a superior cornerback prospect in Claiborne.

7. Arizona Cardinals- OT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M)

Joeckel will probably go #1 in 2013, but I have him 7th in this one, 2nd among 2013 prospects. That’s just how much better last year’s draft class was at the top. The only reason Joeckel wasn’t the highest drafted prospect from 2013 in this mock is because the Raiders didn’t need a left tackle. The Cardinals obviously do.

8. Buffalo Bills- QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas A&M)

The Bills would take Geno Smith in a heartbeat if he fell to them at 8 in reality. Some would argue that Tannehill is a superior quarterback prospect (I wouldn’t). Either way, quarterback is a massive need of the Bills’ so they take Tannehill here.

9. New York Jets- WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma State)

There isn’t a receiver like Justin Blackmon in the 2013 NFL Draft, but if there were, the Jets would take him in a heartbeat at 9.

10. Tennessee Titans- DT Sharrif Floyd (Florida)

The Titans get the top available defensive player from the 2013 NFL Draft. They have some nice defensive tackles, but none are the game changers Floyd can be in a 4-3.

11. San Diego Chargers- OT Eric Fisher (Central Michigan)

The Chargers will pray that one of 2013’s top-3 tackles will fall to them at 11 and they’d probably have to move up in reality. In this scenario, however, Fisher falls to them and they take him in a heartbeat.

12. Miami Dolphins- OT Lane Johnson (Oklahoma)

Like the Chargers, the Dolphins will probably also have to move up to take a left tackle if they want one, but not here as Lane Johnson falls to them at 12.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- CB DeMarcus Milliner (Alabama)

The Buccaneers have a massive need at cornerback and will consider Xavier Rhodes and Desmond Trufant at 13. They’d take the superior Milliner in a heartbeat.

14. Carolina Panthers- S Mark Barron (Alabama)

The Panthers have all sorts of needs on the defensive side of the ball, with the exception of defensive end. Barron, the 7th overall pick in 2012, is easily the best available defensive prospect at this point in the draft (remember, they can’t redraft Kuechly).

15. New Orleans Saints- RLB Dion Jordan (Oregon)

The Saints badly need a pass rusher and they take the best available here. Jordan is a top-10 pick lock and could go as high as #2 to the Jaguars in reality.

16. St. Louis Rams- MLB Luke Kuechly (Boston College)

The Rams take a pure best available. Kuechly would move Laurinaitis to the outside and give the Rams two great every down linebackers.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers- RLB Ezekiel Ansah (BYU)

The Steelers are another team that gets a prospect that would never fall to them in real life. Rush linebacker is a need of theirs after they released James Harrison.

18. Dallas Cowboys- G Chance Warmack (Alabama)

The Cowboys will be lucky if Jonathan Cooper falls to them, so they’d take Chance Warmack in a heartbeat. He’d plug and play really well at right guard for them.

19. New York Giants- CB Stephon Gilmore (South Carolina)

The Giants take best available as they usually do. Gilmore was a top-10 pick in the superior 2012 draft class and helps a 31st ranked pass defense.

20. Chicago Bears- G Jonathan Cooper (North Carolina)

The Bears still have a massive need at left guard even after all of the money they spent on the offense this off-season. Cooper would plug and play there really well.

21. Cincinnati Bengals- WR Michael Floyd (Notre Dame)

Safety and linebacker are bigger needs for the Bengals, but none of those made any sense for them here so they take Floyd, the 13th pick in 2012, as a long term complement to AJ Green.

22. St. Louis Rams- WR Tavon Austin (West Virginia)

I have the Rams taking Tavon Austin at 16 in my regular mock, but he might not even make it to them there. He’d be a perfect fit for them as a replacement for Danny Amendola.

23. Minnesota Vikings- DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi State)

I have the Vikings taking Sheldon Richardson here in reality. Cox, the 12th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, is a better defensive tackle and might have been the #2 defensive tackle off the board behind Sharrif Floyd if he were in this draft class.

24. Indianapolis Colts- NT Dontari Poe (Memphis)

Defensive tackles went 11, 12, and 14 in 2013 and the Colts take the highest drafted of the bunch here. Cox goes ahead of him, but only because he’s a better 4-3 fit.

25. Minnesota Vikings- WR Kendall Wright (Baylor)

The Vikings almost have to come out of the first round with a wide receiver. Wright is the best available, narrowly edging out the bigger, but rawer Cordarrelle Patterson.

26. Green Bay Packers- 3-4 DE Star Lotulelei (Utah)

Lotulelei could go a lot higher depending on what his medical recheck in Indianapolis shows next month, but he’s a steal here for the Packers, who need defensive line help.

27. Houston Texans- WR Cordarrelle Patterson (Tennessee)

Patterson won’t fall to them in reality, but wide receiver is a big position of need for the Texans. He has the size they like.

28. Denver Broncos- DT Michael Brockers (LSU)

The Broncos finish off the top-3 defensive tackles from 2012. Brockers was a raw pass rusher coming out, but John Fox will like his ability to stuff the run from day 1.

29. New England Patriots- CB Xavier Rhodes (Florida State)

The Patriots get 2013’s #2 cornerback here at 29. I think they’d be pretty happy with that considering how poor their pass defense was last season, especially without Aqib Talib, who is only on a one year deal.

30. Atlanta Falcons- OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia)

The Falcons grab a hometown pass rusher that can play in a 3-4.

31. San Francisco 49ers- S Kenny Vaccaro (Texas)

The 49ers could trade up for Vaccaro in reality because they have a big hole at safety after losing Dashon Goldson. They don’t have to here.

32. Baltimore Ravens- MLB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama)

The Ravens were known to have a lot of interest in Hightower last year. He went one pick before them to the Patriots so the Ravens traded out of the 1st round completely, but they get him here as a successor for Ray Lewis.

Denver Broncos sign CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

stevenlourie Broncos

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has a ton of talent and has definitely flashed in his career. He was the 16th overall pick in 2008 and made the Pro-Bowl in 2009, a year in which he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated cornerback. However, he doesn’t always play up to his talent and he has inconsistent effort. He was a throw in to Philadelphia in the Kevin Kolb trade after graded out as ProFootballFocus’ worst cornerback in 2010 and he wasn’t much better in 2 years in Philadelphia.

Perhaps only being able to get a one-year prove it deal on the open market will wake him up. It might also help him that he’ll be on a competitive team for the first time since 2009, when his Cardinals won the NFC West. And if he doesn’t play up to his talent, well, it’s only a one year deal worth 5 million and the Broncos have other good cornerbacks. With Champ Bailey, DRC, Tony Carter, and Chris Harris, the Broncos could have the best pass defenses in the NFL in 2013 if everything goes right, after ranking 5th, allowing 6.4 YPA, in 2012.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns sign DE Desmond Bryant

stevenlourie Browns

I thought Desmond Bryant was an underrated free agent going into the off-season. Bryant played well for the Raiders on 645 snaps last year, taking over as a starter week 10 after Richard Seymour got hurt and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ #7 defensive tackle, excelling as a pass rusher and holding his own against the run. In 2011, he graded out slightly above average on 596 snaps, including 9 starts, and in 2010, he was very good on 333 snaps. He’s played both defensive tackle and defensive end for the Raiders in his career and at 6-6 300, he seems like a natural fit at 3-4 end for the Browns. I’m also not too worried about his recent arrest as it seems like that was an isolated incident.

He gives them a deep defensive line with Phil Taylor, Ahytba Rubin, John Hughes, and Billy Winn. I wasn’t expecting him to get 34 million over 5 years with 15 million guaranteed, but I don’t think it was a bad move. The Browns have now solidified all of the starting spots in their front 7 and will now try to trade down from 6 (unless DeMarcus Milliner falls), take a cornerback, wide receiver, tight end, or guard later in the first round, and gain back a 2nd rounder (which they currently are without) in the process. If they stay at 6, they may reach for Xavier Rhodes, Cordarelle Patterson, or Chance Warmack or take a depth front 7 player like Ezekiel Ansah. Mike Lombardi has made it known that he’d take a defensive lineman with every pick if he could.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles sign NT Isaac Sopoaga

stevenlourie Eagles

Sopoaga barely played for the 49ers last season because they so infrequently were in their base 3-4 using a traditional nose tackle. He played 395 snaps in 19 games en route to the Super Bowl and he didn’t even play well in those snaps. Including post-season, only two defensive tackles graded out worse than him last season despite the limited playing time. On top of all that, he turns 32 in September. This 3 year, 12 million dollar deal with 5 million guaranteed suggests that the Eagles see Sopoaga as a starter and is that’s the case, they’re going to be disappointed.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Miami Dolphins sign OLB Philip Wheeler

stevenlourie Dolphins

This random signing of a linebacker by the Dolphins wasn’t as bad as the Dannell Ellerbe atrocity. Wheeler played pretty well last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated 4-3 outside linebacker, but you have to remember where he was a year ago. Last off-season, he didn’t even get a million dollars on a 1 year deal from the Raiders because he was only seen as a two-down linebacker. What if he was just a one year wonder?

26 million over 5 years with 13 million guaranteed is a lot to gamble on that, especially since the Dolphins didn’t really need an outside linebacker. Kevin Burnett was 4th rated among 4-3 outside linebackers last year, even better than Wheeler and he’s more of a proven commodity. Wheeler is a couple of years younger, but Burnett would have been cheaper this season. The Dolphins only saved 7.2 million in cap space by cutting Karlos Dansby and Burnett and burned much more cash and future cap space by replacing them with Ellerbe and Wheeler. They did get younger in the linebacking corps, but I don’t think they got better and they certainly didn’t get cheaper or more proven.

Grade: D

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles sign TE James Casey

stevenlourie Eagles

The Eagles already have Brent Celek, but James Casey isn’t a traditional tight end. He can play fullback and h-back as well and played 668 snaps in 18 games for the Texans last year even though they had both Owen Daniels and Garrett Graham. He caught 38 passes for 379 yards and 3 touchdowns on 48 targets, grading out above average as a pass catcher on ProFootballFocus, while holding his own as a blocker. He’ll probably be used in a similar role in Philadelphia, though I do like the fit with him and Chip Kelly a lot. 12 million over 3 years with 8 million guaranteed (with another 2.5 million available through incentives) might be a little much for him, but it’s a decent deal.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals re-sign DE Robert Geathers

stevenlourie Bengals

It’s not that 9.4 million over 3 years is unreasonable, for Robert Geathers, but the Bengals have 3 picks in the first 2 rounds and a ton of cap space. Geathers kind of sucks, so they should have taken this opportunity to find someone to replace him in the rotation with Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap. Geathers. Only 4 players graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus among 4-3 ends as he had just 4 sacks, 4 hits, and 17 hurries on 399 pass rush snaps, through the post-season, a 6.3% rate, and he was only average against the run, even at 6-3 280. At the very least, they should give Carlos Dunlap more snaps than him in 2013.

Grade: C

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings re-sign OT Phil Loadholt

stevenlourie Vikings

Phil Loadholt is a top flight right tackle, ranking 8th among right tackles on ProFootballFocus last season. He’s graded out well above average in two straight seasons, but right tackles should not be able like left tackles because they don’t protect the blind side. Credit the Vikings for not overpaying Loadholt, with this 4 year, 25 million dollar deal with 7 million guaranteed. He’s a fierce run blocker, 4th among offensive tackles and 2nd among right tackles in that aspect last season, and he holds up in pass protection as well, with penalties (11) being his only weakness. Adrian Peterson has to be pretty happy about this re-signing.

Grade: B

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs sign TE Anthony Fasano

stevenlourie Chiefs

The Chiefs needed a #2 tight end with no depth behind Tony Moeaki, who is no sure thing, and Fasano, a solid blocker who can also contribute a little bit as a chain mover in the passing game, can serve in that role well. However, this is way too much money for a backup tight end. Fasano will get 16 million over the next 4 years with 4.5 million guaranteed. This is even worse than the 3 year, 9 million dollar deal the Chiefs gave Kevin Boss last off-season (he was cut one year into it) and almost as bad as the 5 year, 25 million dollar deal the Vikings gave John Carlson last off-season. For comparison, Martellus Bennett, a much better tight end and the new starter in Chicago, got just 20.4 million over 4 years, just 4.4 million more than Fasano.

Grade: D

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chicago Bears sign TE Martellus Bennett

stevenlourie Bears

Martellus Bennett might not have been as good of a receiver as Eli Manning made him look last year. Eli has made tight ends like Kevin Boss and Jake Ballard look better than they were before. However, he’s athletic and should still be able to produce as a receiver, even if he doesn’t match the 55 catches for 626 yards and 5 touchdowns he had last season. He’s also a phenomenal blocker and was overall ProFootballFocus’ 5th ranked tight end last season. He was even 10th rated in 2011 stuck behind Jason Witten, because of his blocking.

I thought, overall, he was a better available tight end than Jared Cook, who is unproven as a receiver and doesn’t block at all. Cook got a ridiculous 38.5 million over 5 years with 19 million guaranteed, while Bennett got just 20.4 million over 4 years with 5.215 million guaranteed, which is a much better deal. He’ll be infinitely better than incumbent starting tight end Kellen Davis and help out Jay Cutler a lot. This was definitely a need and the Bears filled it for a reasonable part with the best tight end on the market (other than Tony Gonzalez, who wasn’t leaving Atlanta).

Grade: A

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]