QB Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Philip Rivers inexplicably regressed last season and had one of his worst seasons as a starter and certainly an inferior season to his past 3. I like his chances to bounce back, but at the same time, he’s also lost Vincent Jackson, his top receiver. Then again, he did fine without Jackson in 2010 when he was holding out so he should be fine.

It says a lot that Rivers can still deservingly go to the Pro Bowl in 2011, even though he had such a disappointing season that people wondered all year whether or not he was hurt. In his last 6 games in 2011, he had 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 1601 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 4269 yards. He should be fine. I conservatively averaged his numbers from his last 2 seasons to get my projections.

Projection: 4670 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (275 pts standard/333 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

8/13/12: Mathews has broken his collarbone and will miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his week 1 and week 2 status in doubt, dampening the outlook for a player who looked poised to have a breakout year. He still remains a 1st round pick in fantasy circles, though, and he may be undervalued, going now in the late 2^nd on average. Before the injury, he was going off the board 7^th overall.

Yes, he will miss a game or two, but you had to figure he would when making projections for him. When in the lineup, he could easily lead all backs in fantasy points per game as the Chargers’ “everything” back. If he can play 14 or 15 games and not sustain another injury, he could still finish the year as a top-5 back. There’s no guarantees he won’t get hurt again, especially with his history, but collarbone injuries are not lingering injuries. Unfortunately, there’s not a good handcuff for him as Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and LeRon McClain, 3 mediocre backs, will split carries if he misses any time, making all 3 fantasy irrelevant.

I love Ryan Mathews this year. Allow me to explain. He’ll be the clear lead back for the first time in his career. The Chargers don’t have a good #2 back like they had with Mike Tolbert over the past 2 years, as well as Darren Sproles in 2010. Mathews will only have fullback Le’Ron McClain and Curtis Brinkley, who has 32 career carries, to compete with for carries.

In his 3^rd year, the former 12^th overall pick should rank among the league leaders in carries for the first time as long as he stays healthy. The Chargers have talked him up all offseason and said that he’s ready to be a feature back, which Norv Turner’s offenses normally have. For a back with a career 4.7 YPC, that could put him among the league leaders in rushing yards. He also plays on an explosive offense, which should be even better this year as Philip Rivers bounces back from one of his worst career seasons.

Mathews has never gone over 7 touchdowns in a season, but Mike Tolbert had 21 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. And, again, he’s gone. Finally, Mathews is a threat in the passing game. Last year, he caught 50 passes for 455 yards, numbers that should be up as Rivers’ bounces back and Mathews sees more of the field. Between Mathews and Tolbert, Chargers running backs caught 104 passes last year. Rivers loves throwing to his backs.

Projection: 260 carries 1170 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 52 catches 440 receiving yards (227 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

WR Malcom Floyd (San Diego)

8/20/12: Floyd also becomes up with Brown going down. Floyd’s starting job was never in danger, but with Brown out, Floyd becomes the obvious candidate to be San Diego’s #1 wide receiver. He’s not as physically talented as Meachem, but he’s got better chemistry with the quarterback. The biggest issue is that he’s missed 9 games over the past 2 seasons, he’s heading into his age 31 season, and he’s caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games over the past 2 seasons. He wasn’t able to take advantage of the chance to be a #1 receiver in 2010 either.

There’s definitely upside here with Floyd. In 23 games over the last 2 seasons, he’s caught 80 balls for 1573 yards and 11 touchdowns. I just don’t trust him to get through a 16 game season healthy. He’s also been very inconsistent with 14 games of 3 catches or fewer over the past 2 years. He’s not worth the headaches, especially in PPR leagues.

Projection: 48 catches 850 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (121 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

WR Robert Meachem (San Diego)

8/20/12: Meachem obviously gets a stock up with Brown going down as Brown was a major threat to his job. The fact that Meachem has struggled in Training Camp and has never caught more than 45 passes in a season, despite having Drew Brees as his quarterback, remains, but he should be a starter for the entire season on one of the more explosive offenses in the league. He’ll probably be utilized more in San Diego (if the utilization is in the best interest of the Chargers’ offense is yet to be determined), so he could have a career year because of the pure volume of targets coming his way.

The Chargers coaching staff is talking up Meachem, but that’s just because they gave him so much money. Meachem has been a career disappointment in New Orleans since being taken in the first round and has never gone over 45 catches in a season. Why would he get better now that he has an inferior quarterback and a bunch of guaranteed money in his back pocket? He’ll be overdrafted.

Projection: 48 catches 800 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (116 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/20/12: Brown is probably done for the year. I’ve gone into detail on Floyd’s and Meachem’s short comings. Eddie Royal, the slot receiver, is also injury prone and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008. Gates was their #1 receiver in 2010, the last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson, catching 50 passes for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games before getting hurt, on pace for a ridiculous 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s having a great offseason and is finally healthy and while he’s 32 and might miss a couple games with injuries, he’ll probably be the Chargers’ leading per game receiver when healthy.

I struggle with Antonio Gates. On one hand, he’s had 114 catches for 1560 yards and 17 touchdowns in 23 games over the past 2 years despite never being fully healthy and he’s now healthier than he’s been in the last 2 years. That’s 79 catches for 1085 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. He also caught 50 balls for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in a mere 10 games in 2010 with Vincent Jackson holding out and Rivers could look to him early and often, especially in the red zone, with Jackson gone.

On the other hand, he’s 32 in June and his days of playing all 16 games are behind him. Basically, what you’re getting with Antonio Gates is elite tight end production for around 14 games. Is that worth a 3^rd or 4^th round pick? In a deep tight end year where you can find a marginal replacement for him on waivers for any games he misses, I say yes.

Projection: 67 catches 1040 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/231 pts PPR)

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