QB Cam Newton (Carolina)

7/26/12: One of the things I realized while writing my season preview for the Panthers is that a predictable decrease in rushing touchdowns for Newton would led to not only Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams rushing for more touchdowns, but also Newton throwing for more touchdowns, even if he does have a predictable sophomore slump.

Cam Newton could be overdrafted based on what he did last year. He’s still a strong QB1, but I think there’s a good distance between him and the 4 quarterbacks above him on this list. Anyone who expects him to rush for 14 touchdowns again doesn’t understand football. The all time leader in CAREER rushing touchdowns by a quarterback is Steve Young, who had 43. Young never had more than 7 in any single season. That number is a fluke if I’ve ever seen one. He’ll probably run less overall to preserve his health long term. He could also see his passing numbers decrease slightly with Steve Smith aging and the possibility of a sophomore slump.

Projection: 3920 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 600 rushing yards, 5 rushing touchdowns (298 pts standard/342 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Jonathan Stewart (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put his original projections back.

8/27/12: Jonathan Stewart sprained his ankle. It’s not a huge deal and he probably won’t miss more than a week or two, but he’s currently in a race to start week 1, so I’m moving him down slightly.

Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 150 carries 750 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 37 catches 310 receiving yards (154 pts standard/191 pts PPR)

RB DeAngelo Williams (Carolina)

8/31/12: Jonathan Stewart’s ankle injury seems to be nothing. It looked bad when he was on crutches after the game, but he’s unlikely to miss any regular season time. I’ve put Williams’ original projections back as well.

8/27/12: With Stewart getting hurt, even a minor injury, Williams gets the opportunity to be a pure feature back on one of the best running games in the league for a week or two. I’m moving him up slightly.

Copy and paste: Stewart and Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last season thanks to defenses having to worry about Cam Newton, but Newton also takes carries away from them, as well as touchdowns. Newton won’t score 14 times this year so Stewart and Williams will both score more touchdowns, but other than that, their stats should remain fairly similar to what they produced last season. Stewart has more fantasy value because he’s the better pass catcher. He caught 47 passes for 413 yards last year, though it’s worth noting he had never surpassed 18 catches for 139 yards in a season before that. Williams, however, has managed just 27 combined in the last 2 seasons.

Projection: 160 carries 800 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 20 catches 160 receiving yards (144 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

WR Steve Smith (Carolina)

Steve Smith had a major bounce back year in 2011 with 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he’s now 33. Even Hall of Fame receivers tend to start declining majorly around 33-35 so he’s definitely a risk early in drafts, as good of chemistry as he has with Cam Newton.

Projection: 65 catches 1040 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (140 pts standard/205 pts PPR)

WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina)

8/27/12: Brandon LaFell is the clear starter for the Panthers opposite Legedu Naanee gone and David Gettis still hurt. In 6 starts last year, LaFell caught 15 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown, good for 40 catches for 715 yards and 3 touchdowns over 3 games. On top of that, if he had the 76 targets Naanee had last year and maintained his rates, he would have caught 49 passes for 831 yards and 4 touchdowns. Now he’s the clear starter opposite an aging wide receiver. There is upside here.

LaFell is heading into his 3^rd year, a year when receivers tend to have a breakout year. LaFell is not overly talented so I don’t see a huge year for him, but he should pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack and have a career best season. He might be worth a look late in fantasy drafts.

Projection: 50 catches 850 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (115 pts standard/165 pts PPR)

TE Greg Olsen (Carolina)

8/27/12: The Panthers coaching staff talked up Greg Olsen. Jeremy Shockey is gone and Cam Newton loves throwing to his tight ends. He targeted Olsen and Shockey a combined 152 times last season and could target them even more this season with Steve Smith aging on the outside. Mike Tolbert and Gary Barnridge will take some of those targets, but Olsen could see up to 100 targets this year and have a very solid year. He could also be Newton’s primary target around the goal line as Olsen and Shockey combined for 9 touchdowns last year. Newton also figures to throw more around the goal line this year because his 14 rushing touchdowns is going to be unrepeatable.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.

Projection: 55 catches 700 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/167 pts PPR)

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