QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)
Josh Freeman was pretty bad in 2011, throwing 22 interceptions to 16 touchdowns and only 3592 yards. However, he’s not even 2 years removed from throwing for 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 2010, with 3451 yards passing. He also has a new #1 wide receiver in Vincent Jackson, two upgrades on the offensive line with Carl Nicks coming in and pushing Jeremy Zuttah to center, a new first round running back, Doug Martin, to take the load off of him, and a new coach who will instill more discipline in this team than Raheem Morris did last year. This will have a particularly positive effect on both LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, who were out of shape last year, which will help Josh Freeman. I basically averaged his 2010 and 2011 together to get his projection. There’s definitely upside to be had here with him as your QB2.
Projection: 3640 yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 270 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (240 pts standard/282 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)
RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)
8/27/12: Doug Martin has not only won the 3rd down job, but he’ll probably get the bulk of the 1st and 2nd down work too. Blount is still a valuable handcuff because of the history of rookie running backs in the NFL (1st round backs have averaged 165 carries per year as rookies since 2007) and because the Buccaneers will run a lot, but Martin is moving up.
Doug Martin will be the lead back over LeGarrette Blount, but rookie running backs haven’t had a ton of success in the past and Blount, however useless he is on 3rd down, is still a great runner on 1st and 2nd down and could see a fairly even split with Martin in Martin’s rookie season on downs 1 and 2, especially if Blount shows up in shape this season. He wasn’t last year, but a new coaching staff and a new back to compete with could very well change that.
Projection: 240 carries 1060 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches 300 receiving yards (184 pts standard/219 pts PPR)
RB LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay)
8/27/12: Blount will still get carries on a conservative offense, especially around the goal line, but he’s the clear backup to Doug Martin.
Everyone is assuming that the selection of Doug Martin by the Buccaneers will be doom for LeGarrette Blount in Tampa Bay. However, you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter.
Tampa Bay is still planning on running the ball a ton this year and rookie running backs tend to disappoint so Blount should still get a good amount of carries. He’ll actually be motivated this year with a new coaching staff and a 1st round running back to compete with. However useless he is on passing downs, he’s still a good runner when he wants to be and he could get the goal line carries. There’s some buy low upside with him given where he is being drafted.
Projection: 150 carries 670 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 8 catches 60 receiving yards (109 pts standard/117 pts PPR)
WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)
Vincent Jackson only once caught more than 60 balls in a season and has a career high of 68 and that was with Philip Rivers, a top-6 quarterback or so. Now he goes to Tampa Bay, has to learn a new system with new teammates, with a big wad of guaranteed money that he’s so desperately wanted for years (enough to hold out into the 2010 season), and an inferior quarterback. Receivers almost never do well after switching teams and I don’t expect anything different for Jackson. I might be overreacting and overanalyzing, but given where he is being drafted on average, I’ll let him be someone else’s problem.
Projection: 57 catches 860 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (128 pts standard/185 pts PPR)
WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)
8/20/12: Mike Williams is having a strong Training Camp and is holding off Preston Parker for the starting job. Not only that, he’s been Josh Freeman’s favorite target in the Preseason, as he’s struggled to develop chemistry with new wide receiver Vincent Jackson. If Williams is back in shape this season, he could definitely lead the team in receiving because he has the familiarity advantage with Freeman. Remember, he caught 65 passes for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010.
7/1/12: Mike Williams already got knocked down the depth chart one spot with the addition of Vincent Jackson this offseason and now he might be knocked out of the starting lineup entirely. Preston Parker is impressing in practice and Williams is not meshing with the new coaching staff. If Parker starts, Williams would play outside on 3-wide receiver sets with Parker moving inside and have minimal fantasy value.
Mike Williams caught 65 passes for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, but had 65 catches for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010. He was out of shape last year, but with a new coaching staff coming in, that should change. He also has Vincent Jackson opposite him to draw away double teams and his quarterback should have a bounce back year. There’s buy low potential here.
Projection: 61 catches 800 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (116 pts standard/177 pts PPR)
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