1. Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)
Jimmy Graham caught 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. He probably will have less this season as Brees can’t possibly be as good as last year, and also because of the situation at Head Coach. However, I still like him over Rob Gronkowski because his team didn’t add a ton of receiving options through free agency.
Projection: 88 catches 1180 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (184 pts standard/272 pts PPR)
2. Rob Gronkowski (New England)
Gronkowski should also lose some production to Brandon Lloyd and I like Jimmy Graham more than him in fantasy, but he’ll still have a fantastic season. He caught 90 passes for 1327 yards and 17 touchdowns last season. That’s insane.
Projection: 75 catches 1100 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (176 pts standard/251 pts PPR)
3. Antonio Gates (San Diego)
8/20/12: Brown is probably done for the year. I’ve gone into detail on Floyd’s and Meachem’s short comings. Eddie Royal, the slot receiver, is also injury prone and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008. Gates was their #1 receiver in 2010, the last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson, catching 50 passes for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games before getting hurt, on pace for a ridiculous 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s having a great offseason and is finally healthy and while he’s 32 and might miss a couple games with injuries, he’ll probably be the Chargers’ leading per game receiver when healthy.
I struggle with Antonio Gates. On one hand, he’s had 114 catches for 1560 yards and 17 touchdowns in 23 games over the past 2 years despite never being fully healthy and he’s now healthier than he’s been in the last 2 years. That’s 79 catches for 1085 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. He also caught 50 balls for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in a mere 10 games in 2010 with Vincent Jackson holding out and Rivers could look to him early and often, especially in the red zone, with Jackson gone.
On the other hand, he’s 32 in June and his days of playing all 16 games are behind him. Basically, what you’re getting with Antonio Gates is elite tight end production for around 14 games. Is that worth a 3rd or 4th round pick? In a deep tight end year where you can find a marginal replacement for him on waivers for any games he misses, I say yes.
Projection: 67 catches 1040 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/231 pts PPR)
4. Jermichael Finley (Green Bay)
Is this the year Jermichael Finley finally puts it all together? He’s definitely flashed at times, including 21 catches for 301 yards and a score in 4 games in 2010, and a strong end to the 2009 season. However, he’s very inconsistent. All that being said, if he just cuts his drops in half (12 to 6) he’ll have a major improvement on 2011, when he caught 55 passes for 767 yards and 8 touchdowns (not too shabby). There’s definitely plenty of upside here.
Projection: 63 catches 880 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (136 pts standard/199 pts PPR)
5. Vernon Davis (San Francisco)
In Davis’ last 5 games, including playoffs, he had 28 catches for 536 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s insane. Remember, he had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 and 56 catches for 914 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010, before totaling just 67 catches for 792 yards and 6 touchdowns last year. He’s still San Francisco’s #1 receiver. Buy low while you still can.
Projection: 74 catches 920 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (134 pts standard/208 pts PPR)
6. Aaron Hernandez (New England)
8/7/12: My previous projections for Hernandez, who is reportedly dominating in Training Camp, were too low. He’ll take a statistical hit with Lloyd coming in too, but not a huge one. Remember, he’s never played a full 16 game season either, playing 14 a piece in his first 2 seasons, so if he does that, he could have a career high in yardage. He’s also being used as a fullback and could get you yardage on the ground. He had 45 yards on 5 carries last year in the regular season and then rushed for 61 yards on 5 carries in the playoffs against the Broncos. He could surpass 100 yards rushing.
This might seem a little low for Hernandez. However, the Patriots added a ton of wide receivers this offseason. They ran more two-tight end sets in passing situations than any team in the league last year. With guys like Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney coming in, that number should go down. Whereas Gronkowski’s production will be hurt because he’ll have more competition for balls, Hernandez figures to actually see the field less.
Projection: 65 catches 800 receiving yards 7 total touchdowns 100 rushing yards (132 pts standard/197 pts PPR)
7. Fred Davis (Washington)
Davis is very underrated. He had 59 catches for 796 yards and 3 touchdowns in 12 games last year, good for 79 catches for 1061 yards and 4 touchdowns over 16 games. He also has an upgrade at quarterback, though he does have much better receiving talent around him. Still, he’s an underrated tight end who should score more this year on a better offense. The biggest concern is he’s a failed drug test away from a season long suspension, but I wouldn’t worry too much.
Projection: 72 catches 950 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (125 pts standard/197 pts PPR)
8. Jason Witten (Dallas)
8/31/12: Jason Witten will reportedly be a game time decision for week 1 as he tries to come back from a lacerated spleen suffered a couple of weeks ago. This is much better news than his original prognosis, which was doubtful for week 1. At the very least, this news should mean that he’ll be in the starting lineup week 2.
An incredibly consistent producer, Witten has between 64 catches for 754 yards and 96 catches for 1145 yards in every season since 2004 and is averaging 5.16 catches for 59.07 yards and 0.31 touchdowns per game in that time period. Over 15 games, that’s 77 catches for 886 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s not a bad year at all. You can safely draft him as your TE1 in fantasy. Even if he misses one game, tight end is a deep enough position that you can pick someone up off waivers for just one game and get decent production.
8/20/12: Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Unfortunately, the timetable for his return is very murky with this type of injury. He’ll have to remain idle for about a week and hope it heals and that he’ll avoid surgery. Reports says that’s the most likely scenario, but even if that scenario, he’d be questionable for week 1. Witten is incredibly tough and hasn’t missed a game since 2003, but I’m still cutting his original projected numbers to estimate that he plays 14 games instead of 16.
Jason Witten is as consistent as they come. He hasn’t missed a game since 2003 and he’s had between 79 and 96 catches and 942 yards and 1145 yards in each of the last 5 years. Believe it or not, he’s still only 30.
Projection: 77 catches 900 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (120 pts standard/197 pts PPR)
9. Greg Olsen (Chicago)
8/27/12: The Panthers coaching staff talked up Greg Olsen. Jeremy Shockey is gone and Cam Newton loves throwing to his tight ends. He targeted Olsen and Shockey a combined 152 times last season and could target them even more this season with Steve Smith aging on the outside. Mike Tolbert and Gary Barnridge will take some of those targets, but Olsen could see up to 100 targets this year and have a very solid year. He could also be Newton’s primary target around the goal line as Olsen and Shockey combined for 9 touchdowns last year. Newton also figures to throw more around the goal line this year because his 14 rushing touchdowns is going to be unrepeatable.
Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.
Olsen is another player who will help pick up some of Steve Smith’s slack. Olsen had a decent first year in Carolina with 45 catches for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns, but should improve this year, especially with Jeremy Shockey gone.
Projection: 55 catches 700 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/167 pts PPR)
10. Jared Cook (Tennessee)
8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.
Jared Cook quietly emerged as one of the better tight ends in the league last year with 49 catches for 759 yards and 3 touchdowns and if his last 3 games were any indication (21 catches for 335 yards and 1 touchdown), he could be even better this year, especially if the Titans upgrade their quarterback situation from Hasselbeck to Locker.
Projection: 54 catches 820 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (112 pts standard/166 pts PPR)
11. Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)
Pettigrew was actually the Lions’ 2nd most targeted receiver last year and he turned that into 83 catches for 777 yards and 5 touchdowns. He could see a slight dip in production this year with the emergence of Titus Young and the addition of Ryan Broyles, but he’s still a solid TE1.
Projection: 72 catches 730 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/175 pts PPR)
12. Dustin Keller (NY Jets)
8/21/12: Dustin Keller had a breakout season last year, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, leading a miserable receiving corps. I thought his production would go down this season because the receiving corps around him would be improved, but it doesn’t look like it. Keller should once again lead this miserable bunch in receiving. If you miss out on one of the top tight ends, Keller is a nice fall back option in the mid rounds.
Keller had a career high 65 catches for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns last year, but with Holmes bouncing back and Stephen Hill coming in, I expect those numbers to dip, especially if Tebow, who rarely threw to tight ends, takes over as the starter at some point.
Projection: 60 catches 760 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (106 pts standard/166 pts PPR)
13. Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)
Tony Gonzalez inexplicably had an amazing season at the age of 35 last season with 80 catches for 875 yards and 7 touchdowns despite looking done the year before. However, there’s only downside with him now. He’s 36 and less than 2 years removed from 70 catches for 656 yards and 6 touchdowns. I’d stay away.
Projection: 65 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/168 pts PPR)
14. Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)
8/20/12: Fleener hasn’t quite been as big of a part of the offense in the Preseason as anticipated. Wide receiver Austin Collie has been Luck’s favorite target.
I like Fleener to have an immediate impact. Andrew Luck loves throwing to his tight ends and the Colts should use plenty of two-tight ends sets to get Dwayne Allen and Fleener involved, though Fleener is the better receiver and more useful player for fantasy purposes. Luck has familiarity with Fleener and should target him early and often, particularly in the red zone. As I’ve said before, this Colts receiving corps still leaves a lot to be desired and Fleener might finish the season 2nd on the team in receiving. There’s some potential for him to have a Rob Gronkowski esque rookie season.
Projection: 42 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/145 pts PPR)
15. TE Heath Miller (Pittsburgh)
8/7/12: Heath Miller is going to be a bigger part of Todd Haley’s offense, especially if Mike Wallace misses time. He’s a nice high end TE2.
Miller is a solid, but unspectacular tight end, but he should surpass the mere 2 touchdowns he had last year for reasons I listed under Antonio Brown’s write up. Still, it’s hard to recommend Miller as a TE1.
Projection: 57 catches 700 receiving yards 5 touchdowns (100 pts standard/157 pts PPR)
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