1. Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

7/26/12 No news to report here, but my projections were a little high for Calvin Johnson. It’s unlikely that anyone, even Johnson, can repeat what Johnson did last year, especially since his team is unlikely to pass 666 times again, has other weapons, and his quarterback has only once made it through a 16 game slate. Johnson has also had his own injury history, only playing all 16 games once before last year. He’s still my #1 receiver, but don’t buy TOO high with him expecting him to catch 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns again.

Calvin Johnson was insane last season in his first full season with an actual quarterback, catching 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. He might not quite match those numbers this season, but with Stafford throwing him the ball, he remains the #1 fantasy receiver by a good margin, barring the curse of John Madden striking him down.

Projection: 87 catches 1450 receiving yards 13 receiving touchdowns (223 pts standard/310 pts PPR)

2. Julio Jones (Atlanta)

8/13/12: I don’t like to overreact to preseason games, but Julio Jones is insane. He caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in his 1st preseason game in only one quarter of play. I had him “conservatively” ranked as my #5 wide receiver, but it appears that was even too low for him. Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are not out of reach for him.

As a rookie in a lockout shortened season, Jones still managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games, despite battling hamstring problems all year. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his last 5 games, when he finally looked healthy, he had 24 catches for 461 yards and 6 touchdowns. With a full offseason, Jones looks poised for a breakout season now that’s healthy.

Projection: 76 catches 1280 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (200 pts standard/276 pts PPR)

3. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona)

Larry Fitzgerald had 80 catches for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns last year with terrible quarterback play. I can’t guarantee his quarterback play will be any better, but Michael Floyd drawing away the bracket coverage opposite him will help him.

Projection: 83 catches 1440 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (198 pts standard/281 pts PPR)

4. Greg Jennings (Green Bay)

Greg Jennings managed 67 catches for 949 yards and 9 touchdowns last year in 13 games, good for 82 catches for 1168 yards and 11 touchdowns. If he stays healthy for 16 games this year, something he had done in the 3 previous years, he should not only match those numbers, but surpass them. His 14.2 YPC last year was way lower than average and if he does catch a career high 82 balls this year, definitely a possibility the way Aaron Rodgers is playing, he should have a career high in yards as well.

Projection: 82 catches 1310 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (197 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

5. Percy Harvin (Minnesota)

Percy Harvin could have a career best season in 2012 with improved quarterback play, a better offensive line to protect the quarterback, and still very little competition for targets from other receivers. He’s a really underrated right now. He rushed for 345 yards and 2 scores last year, which helped make him the #8 fantasy receiver. He could easily improve on that this season, but he goes in the 4th or 5th round (19th receiver) on average because people ignore his rushing ability.

Projection: 100 catches 1170 receiving yards 45 carries 250 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns (196 pts standard/296 pts PPR)

6. Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh)

8/28/12: Brown also gets a stock up with Wallace coming back. The Steelers will probably use Wallace primarily as a deep decoy for the first 4-8 games of the season until he gets the playbook mastered, which sets up a perfect situation for Brown, who has been there all offseason and was the team’s leading receiver, by far, in the 2^nd half of the season. Wallace had about 1200 yards last year and Brown had about 1100. Expect Brown to be closer to 1300 and Wallace to be closer to 1000 this year.

7/27/12: If Wallace is traded or holds out into the season, Brown immediately becomes the #1 receiver. Even Wallace isn’t traded, Brown could still be the #1 receiver because he’ll have better mastery of Todd Haley’s new offense and because he won’t run the risk of getting out of shape. He’s heading into his 3^rd year, normally a big breakout year for receivers. He should have career highs across the board.

7/26/12: With Mike Wallace trending down, Antonio Brown is trending up. Brown will be the #1 receiver in Wallace’s absence at Training Camp and that could lead to him become a more relied on receiver by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, especially since he figures to have better mastery of their new offensive system.

Antonio Brown had his breakout year last year, giving Pittsburgh two 1000 yard receivers. They could very well have two 1000 yard receivers again this year. Brown will be more valuable in fantasy leagues this year than last because I think his mere 2 touchdowns from last year were a fluke. The combo of Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Jerricho Cotchery/Mewelde Moore/David Johnson/Weslye Saunders vultured 9 touchdowns last year. That won’t happen this year.

Projection: 78 catches 1270 receiving yards 8 touchdowns (175 pts standard/253 pts PPR)

7. Jordy Nelson (Green Bay)

In 13 games with Greg Jennings healthy last year, Nelson had 51 catches for 957 yards and 10 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 63 catches for 1178 yards and 12 touchdowns, but that’s assuming you think he can keep up 18.6 YPC. For someone with a career 15.1 YPC even with last year factored in, that seems a little crazy.

The stats didn’t show it last year, but Jennings is Rodgers’ favorite target, not Nelson. In the 13 games they played together, Jennings was targeted 96 times, Nelson 58 times. Their receiving stats should reflect that this season barring injuries. That being said, Nelson is still talented enough to go over 1000 yards with Rodgers throwing him the ball.

Projection: 63 catches 1030 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (175 pts standard/238 pts PPR)

8. Marques Colston (New Orleans)      

He gets a rep for being injury prone, but he’s only had less than 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns once in his 6 year career so there’s minimal downside for him. He remains the top wide receiver on one of the best passing offenses in the league. In 14 games last year, he had 80 catches for 1143 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games. He’s only played 16 games twice, but there’s potential for improvement on last year’s numbers.

Projection: 83 catches 1190 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (173 pts standard/256 pts PPR)

9. Dez Bryant (Dallas)

8/20/12: Austin is battling hamstring problems still and Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Bryant, who is having a strong offseason on the field, could be due for a huge season in his 3^rd year in the league, typically a breakout year for receivers. He’s the clear #1 option in one of the best passing attacks in the league.

Dez Bryant caught 63 balls for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns in 15 games last year. He’s now in his 3^rd year, a frequent breakout year for receivers, and should have his best year yet, especially if he plays 16 games for the first time in his career.

Projection: 72 catches 1100 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (170 pts standard/242 pts PPR)

10. Andre Johnson (Houston)

I’m torn on Andre Johnson. On one hand, he had 86 catches for 1216 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2010 in just 13 games after back-to-back 100 catch 1500 yard seasons in 2008 and 2009. He didn’t do much last year thanks to injuries, but he should be fully healthy this year. On the other hand, he’s turns 31 in July and the Texans don’t pass as much as they used to and he’s had a history of injury problems. We should see slightly less than peak production for Johnson this year and there’s some downside.

Projection: 80 catches 1200 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (168 pts standard/248 pts PPR)

11. Hakeem Nicks (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

8/7/12: I moved Nicks down a little bit when he got hurt, but he’s practicing already and looks fine. He won’t miss any time, so I moved him back up.

5/27/12: Nicks could be in a race to play week 1 with a broken foot. I won’t knock him down too much, but it’s worth noting.

I’ll take Hakeem Nicks over Victor Cruz. Nicks has a proven history of success as he has 79 catches for 1052 yards and 11 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1192 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He’s also bigger so he should have more touchdowns than Cruz, who had more touchdowns between the two last season. Hicks was also significantly better in the playoffs, 28/444/4, than Cruz, 21/269/1.

Projection: 80 catches 1070 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (167 pts standard/247 pts PPR)

12. Eric Decker (Denver)

8/7/12: Eric Decker and Peyton Manning reportedly have great chemistry in Denver, much better than him and Demaryius Thomas. This makes a lot of sense because Peyton Manning loves crisp route runners with reliable hands, rather than pure athletic freaks like Thomas. With Peyton Manning likely to show diminished arm strength this season at age 36 after 4 neck surgeries and a year out of football, Decker should lead the team in receiving and Peter King’s prediction that Decker will rank among the league leaders in receiving doesn’t sound too crazy.

Everyone assumes Demaryius Thomas will lead the Broncos in receiving, but why? Just because he had 25 catches for 448 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 5 games last year? Well Eric Decker had 20 catches for 270 yards and 4 touchdowns in his first 4 games last year and that was with Brandon Lloyd opposite him.

Just because Thomas had great chemistry with Tim Tebow doesn’t mean he will have great chemistry with Peyton Manning. Thomas is still a very unproven player and Decker has shown better chemistry with more traditional pocket passers. It’s also worth noting that Peyton Manning specifically requested the Colts draft Eric Decker in the 3^rd round in 2010, but the Broncos got him first. We know he thinks highly of him.

Manning has made lemonade out of apples before with his receivers. If Austin Collie can catch 58 passes for 649 yards and 8 touchdowns in 9 games on a more crowded receiving corps in 2010 with Manning, Decker can have a 1000 yard season. I think he’ll lead this team in receiving and exceed his draft range.

Projection: 90 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/254 pts PPR)

13. Steve Johnson (Buffalo)

Johnson has 82 catches for 1073 yards and 10 touchdowns and 76 catches for 1004 yards and 7 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons. He should be able to surpass 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns again and could have a career high season if Ryan Fitzpatrick plays as well as he did last season before the rib injury. The Bills still don’t have very many other talented options besides Johnson unless 3^rd round rookie TJ Graham can make huge strides in his first season as a pro.

Projection: 80 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/244 pts PPR)

14. Torrey Smith (Baltimore)

8/27/12: Torrey Smith exploded for 8 catches for 103 yards in the Ravens’ 3^rd preseason game in not even 3 full quarters worth of action. He might be even more likely to have a Mike Wallace type breakout year than I originally imagined.

Torrey Smith was excellent as a rookie, catching 50 balls for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns and he was even better in his last 7 games, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns. Keep in mind he played all of last season with a double sports hernia. Now that he’s a year older and Anquan Boldin is a year older on the wrong side of 30, Smith should continue to improve as a receiver and establish himself as Baltimore’s clear #1 receiver.

We could even see a Mike Wallace/Hines Ward type situation here. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2^nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns. There’s definitely upside to be had with the speedy Smith in the mid rounds.

Projection: 70 catches 1100 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/234 pts PPR)

15. Brandon Marshall (Chicago)

From 2007-2008 in Denver with Jay Cutler, Marshall had 102 catches for 1325 yards and 7 touchdowns and 104 catches for 1265 yards and 6 touchdowns. From 2010-2011 in Miami with crap at quarterback, Marshall had 86 catches for 1014 yards and 3 touchdowns and 81 catches for 1214 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now that he won’t face league discipline after an alleged off the field incident, he’s a player with good upside and minimal downside.

Projection: 95 catches 1200 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (162 pts standard/257 pts PPR)

16. Brandon Lloyd (New England)

8/7/12: Brandon Lloyd is reportedly dominating in Patriots Training Camp. He’s their best deep threat since Randy Moss gave a shit and he is obviously very comfortable in Josh McDaniels’ system. Remember, this guy led the league in receiving two years ago. He won’t do that because the Patriots just have too many options, but he could easily go for over 1000 yards receiving.

Before McDaniels was fired as Head Coach in Denver in 2010, Lloyd caught 60 passes for 1153 yards and 9 touchdowns in 12 games with Kyle Orton as his quarterback. In 2011, he was traded to St. Louis, where McDaniels was the offensive coordinator. He caught 51 passes for 683 yards and 5 touchdowns in 11 games with an injured Sam Bradford, AJ Feeley, and Kellen Clemens at quarterback. In the last 2 years, he has 111 catches for 1836 yards and 14 touchdowns in 23 games with McDaniels.

Over 16 games, that’s 77 catches for 1277 yards and 10 touchdowns. With Kyle Orton, AJ Feeley, Kellen Clemens, and an injured Sam Bradford throwing him the football. Now he has Tom Brady throwing him the football. However, he’s also got a ton of competition for balls around him. Welker and Gronkowski should both go over 1000 yards again, so I’d be surprised if Lloyd did so as well. 3 1000 yard receivers on one team is unheard of, even for the Patriots. He’ll still have a good season.

Projection: 65 catches 1000 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (154 pts standard/219 pts PPR)

17. Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia)

Maclin was on his way to a career high season last year before getting hurt and still managed 63 catches for 859 yards and 5 touchdowns in 13 games. Over 16 games, that’s 78 catches for 1057 yards and 6 touchdowns. Now fully healthy (something he wasn’t last year even when he played) on what should be an overall improved Philadelphia offense, he could match or exceed those numbers this season.

Projection: 79 catches 1090 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (149 pts standard/228 pts PPR)

18. Kenny Britt (Tennessee)

8/31/12: I’ve maintained all along that Britt has the ability to be a top-10 wide receiver with Jake Locker throwing him the football. He has caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns over his last 13 full games over the last 2 seasons. Now he’s only getting suspended 1 game and should be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by week 2. He might not become a top-10 receiver this year with the uncertainty about the knee and the one game he’ll miss, but he definitely has the upside and he’s worth the risk as a WR2/flex type in the early mid rounds.

8/27/12: For an in depth look at Tennessee’s offense, click here.

8/20/12: Adam Schefter reports that Britt will likely receive only a short suspension, somewhere between 1-3 games. He’s also made an incredible recovery from 2 knee surgeries and is impressing in work on the side and could be activated from the PUP any day now. I originally projected him to play 12 games, now I’m changing his projections to 14 games. Remember, in his last 14 full games, he’s caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s got incredible upside in the mid rounds still.

7/26/12: There are three numbers that are important for Britt. The first is 12, meaning 12 touchdowns over his last 14 games, to go with 56 catches and 1146 yards, despite generally mediocre quarterbacking (Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Rusty Smith, Matt Hasselbeck). The 2^nd number is 8, however, meaning 8 arrests in the last 3 years since entering the league. He’ll almost definitely be suspended after his last one, for DUI. He would have been suspended last season, but Roger Goodell agreed not to suspend guys for what they did during the lockout. He won’t be so lucky this time around.

The 3^rd number is 3, meaning 3 knee surgeries in the last 10 months. I’m cutting his originally projected numbers by 25%. He might not miss 4 games, but he could and even if he doesn’t, he’ll be far from 100%. Let him be someone else’s problem, unless you can get him late, in which case he’s a sleeper with nice upside. His current ADP in the 7^th round is far too rich, however.

In the last 2 seasons, Britt has played 13 entire games. In those 14 games, he has 56 catches for 1046 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 64 catches for 1195 yards and 14 touchdowns. And he did that with Kerry Collins, Vince Young and just 2 games of Matt Hasselbeck. There’s serious sleeper value with him in the mid rounds, even all of the receiving options the Titans have. He just needs to stay on the field for 16 games. He had another knee surgery this offseason, but it doesn’t sound serious.

Projection: 60 catches 960 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (144 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

19. Roddy White (Atlanta)

8/13/12: Any positive for Jones has to be a negative for White, who is heading into his age 31 season and will be a smaller part of the offense last year. Leading the league in targets last year, White is almost purely a volume receiver at this point in his career and he should see a much smaller volume of targets go his way as long as Julio is playing like this.

Julio Jones’ gain will be Roddy White’s loss this season. White is 31 in November and coming off a season in which he led the league in drops. He also led the league in targets, a number that should go down this season with Julio Jones’ emergence. He’ll have to be more efficient to match his numbers from 2011 and I don’t think he will be.

Projection: 84 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/226 pts PPR)

20. Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Garcon was overpaid in free agency, but he did have 70 catches for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns last season with Curtis Painter throwing him the ball. I don’t know if he’s capable of producing at a high level without Reggie Wayne opposite him, but he should have his first 1000 yard season with Robert Griffin throwing him the ball.

Projection: 70 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/212 pts PPR)

21. Victor Cruz (NY Giants)

8/13/12: I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

I’d be wary of buying high on Cruz. He did nothing before his breakout year last year and his 18.7 YPC is going to be hard to maintain. Nicks and Cruz had equal amounts of targets last year, Nicks with 133 and Cruz with 131. If that happens again this year, they’ll probably have more similar stats. I also like Nicks to have the edge in touchdowns.

Projection: 64 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/206 pts PPR)

22. AJ Green (Cincinnati)

With Andy Dalton having the sophomore slump I’m predicting for him, Green’s production will obviously dip a bit. He’s still too talented not to be a fantasy starter, however. He could still see his touchdowns increase next season. The 7 he had in 2011 seems awfully low for someone as talented as Green, however much Dalton does like targeting tight end Jermaine Gresham in the red zone.

Projection: 62 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/204 pts PPR)

23. Steve Smith (Carolina)

Steve Smith had a major bounce back year in 2011 with 79 catches for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he’s now 33. Even Hall of Fame receivers tend to start declining majorly around 33-35 so he’s definitely a risk early in drafts, as good of chemistry as he has with Cam Newton.

Projection: 65 catches 1040 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (140 pts standard/205 pts PPR)

24. Mike Wallace (Pittsburgh)

8/27/12: Mike Wallace is expected to report sometime this week, possibly even tomorrow. He’s still a strong candidate for a down year after an extended holdout because he could be out of top football shape and because he missed a whole offseason of offensive install with a new coaching staff coming in. The Steelers have another receiver, Antonio Brown, who is just as talented, if not more so, who has been there all offseason. He’ll be the Steelers’ primary target at least for the first half of the season, benefiting from Wallace drawing the attention away from him. He could be their primary target all season. Plus, remember, Brown had 677 yards to Wallace’s 393.

7/27/12: Mike Wallace will either play out the season under his one year tender or be traded. Regardless of whether or not he gets traded, Wallace’s fantasy value could take a major hit this season. If he reports, it’ll likely be after a long holdout, which could led to him getting out of shape and will cost him valuable time learning the playbook, while other receivers like Brown and Sanders are gaining greater mastery of Todd Haley’s new system. He could also hold out into the season.

If he gets traded, he’ll be traded to a team likely with an inferior quarterback and receivers have a poor track record when switching teams, especially this close to the season. It takes time to learn a playbook and get adjusted to a quarterback. I’d let him be someone else’s problem in fantasy leagues, especially at his current ADP in the early 4th round.

7/26/12: Mike Wallace’s holdout could get ugly. Right now, the Steelers won’t agree to negotiate with him until he reports to camp, but he won’t report to camp until they pay him. I don’t expect him to miss any games, at least not at the moment, but an extended holdout could hurt him on the field this season. He risks getting out of shape and more importantly he also misses valuable practice with in new offensive coordinator Todd Haley’s system. Let him be someone else’s problem unless he falls to the point where he’s too good to pass on.

Wallace has had 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns and 1193 yards and 8 touchdowns in the last 2 years. He’ll be better if Big Ben can stay healthy for 16 games, but that never happens. Still, he’s a top-10 fantasy receiver once again.

Projection: 62 catches 1010 receiving yards 6 touchdowns (137 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

25. Wes Welker (New England)

8/7/12: Brandon Lloyd should have a strong year, which will eat at the aging Welker’s targets. He doesn’t average a lot of YPC or score a lot of touchdowns. He’s mostly a volume receiver, who ranked 2^nd in the league in targets this season, and he should see a smaller volume of targets this season. Tom Brady is good, but he’s not good enough for Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez ALL to have their normal levels of production at the same time.

Welker had a career year last year, but wasn’t quite as good down the stretch. After surpassing 100 yards 4 times in his first 5 games, he only had 4 more 100 yard games, including the playoffs, and after scoring 5 times in his first 4 games, he scored just 5 times the rest of the way, including playoffs. He’s getting older and he has a ton of competition for receptions, so it’s likely he regresses to his 2007-2009 self, which is still very good, but not elite in fantasy.

Projection: 100 catches 1040 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (134 pts standard/234 pts PPR)

26. Titus Young (Detroit)

7/26/12: Titus Young is fully expected to win the starting job opposite Calvin Johnson. Titus Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns as a mere rookie last year, despite 84 targets. Incumbent starter, Nate Burleson, caught 73 passes for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns on 110 targets. If Young had Burleson’s 110 targets last year, he would have caught 63 passes for 795 yards and 8 touchdowns if you extrapolate his numbers. In his 2^nd year in the league, he should exceed even those numbers, even if his team does pass less than the ridiculous 666 times they passed last year.

Projection: 66 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

27. Miles Austin (Dallas)

8/20/12: Miles Austin has missed all of the Preseason with hamstring problems. He should be fine for week 1, but hamstring problems tend to linger and he missed 6 games and caught just 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns last year because of hamstring problems. He’s got upside, but let him be someone else’s problem.

He’s an injury risk after only playing in 10 games last year, in which he caught 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns. However, before last year in his previous 17 games with Tony Romo, Austin has 109 catches for 1725 yards and 12 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 103 catches for 1624 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s clearly the #2 receiver to Dez Bryant now, but there’s definitely buy low value with him.

Projection: 63 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

28. Darrius Heyward Bey (Oakland)

Darrius Heyward Bey proved he was more than fast last season, catching 64 passes for 975 yards and 4 touchdowns. His production was about the same with and without Carson Palmer so he should match those numbers this year.

Projection: 66 catches 960 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (132 pts standard/198 pts PPR)

29. Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City)

8/7/12: I don’t know why Dwayne Bowe is holding out. He can’t be signed to a long term deal anyway. All he’s doing is hurting himself because other guys are impressing in his absence and other guys will have a better grasp of the offense with a new coaching staff in. Jonathan Baldwin has been a stud in his absence and will almost definitely eat into his production this season. All he’s doing is costing himself money on his next contract. He could also end up getting out of shape. He probably won’t miss any regular games, but let him be someone else’s problem this season.

Over the past 2 years, Dwayne Bowe has had 72 catches for 1162 yards and 81 catches for 1159 yards on a conservative offensive with inconsistent quarterback play. However, I expect those numbers to dip a bit in 2012. The Chiefs have more options with Jonathan Baldwin going into his 2^nd year and Tony Moeaki coming back from injury and they figure to run a ton, maybe even more than in 2010. He is, however, the only Kansas City receiver with any fantasy value on a conservative offense with a mediocre quarterback. He should have more than the 5 touchdowns he had last year, but less than the obviously fluky 15 he had in 2010. Aside from 2010, his career high is 7 and after that it’s 5.

Projection: 65 catches 950 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/196 pts PPR)

30. DeSean Jackson (Philadelphia)

Jackson had 47 catches for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns in 14 games in 2010 and 58 catches for 961 yards and 4 touchdowns in 15 games last season. A lot of his “struggles” last year can be attributed to him not having a long term contract, which he has now so he should have somewhat of a bounce back season this year, even if his “down season” last year wasn’t even that bad statistically. You do have to consider with Jackson that hasn’t played a full 16 game season since his rookie year.

Projection: 59 catches 1010 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (131 pts standard/190 pts PPR)

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