San Diego Chargers Fantasy Football Projections

QB Philip Rivers (San Diego)

Philip Rivers inexplicably regressed last season and had one of his worst seasons as a starter and certainly an inferior season to his past 3. I like his chances to bounce back, but at the same time, he’s also lost Vincent Jackson, his top receiver. Then again, he did fine without Jackson in 2010 when he was holding out so he should be fine.

It says a lot that Rivers can still deservingly go to the Pro Bowl in 2011, even though he had such a disappointing season that people wondered all year whether or not he was hurt. In his last 6 games in 2011, he had 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and 1601 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 32 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and 4269 yards. He should be fine. I conservatively averaged his numbers from his last 2 seasons to get my projections.

Projection: 4670 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 50 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdowns (275 pts standard/333 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Ryan Mathews (San Diego)

8/13/12: Mathews has broken his collarbone and will miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his week 1 and week 2 status in doubt, dampening the outlook for a player who looked poised to have a breakout year. He still remains a 1st round pick in fantasy circles, though, and he may be undervalued, going now in the late 2nd on average. Before the injury, he was going off the board 7th overall.

Yes, he will miss a game or two, but you had to figure he would when making projections for him. When in the lineup, he could easily lead all backs in fantasy points per game as the Chargers’ “everything” back. If he can play 14 or 15 games and not sustain another injury, he could still finish the year as a top-5 back. There’s no guarantees he won’t get hurt again, especially with his history, but collarbone injuries are not lingering injuries. Unfortunately, there’s not a good handcuff for him as Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and LeRon McClain, 3 mediocre backs, will split carries if he misses any time, making all 3 fantasy irrelevant.

I love Ryan Mathews this year. Allow me to explain. He’ll be the clear lead back for the first time in his career. The Chargers don’t have a good #2 back like they had with Mike Tolbert over the past 2 years, as well as Darren Sproles in 2010. Mathews will only have fullback Le’Ron McClain and Curtis Brinkley, who has 32 career carries, to compete with for carries.

In his 3rd year, the former 12th overall pick should rank among the league leaders in carries for the first time as long as he stays healthy. The Chargers have talked him up all offseason and said that he’s ready to be a feature back, which Norv Turner’s offenses normally have. For a back with a career 4.7 YPC, that could put him among the league leaders in rushing yards. He also plays on an explosive offense, which should be even better this year as Philip Rivers bounces back from one of his worst career seasons.

Mathews has never gone over 7 touchdowns in a season, but Mike Tolbert had 21 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons. And, again, he’s gone. Finally, Mathews is a threat in the passing game. Last year, he caught 50 passes for 455 yards, numbers that should be up as Rivers’ bounces back and Mathews sees more of the field. Between Mathews and Tolbert, Chargers running backs caught 104 passes last year. Rivers loves throwing to his backs.

Projection: 260 carries 1170 rushing yards 11 total touchdowns 52 catches 440 receiving yards (227 pts standard/279 pts PPR)

WR Malcom Floyd (San Diego)

8/20/12: Floyd also becomes up with Brown going down. Floyd’s starting job was never in danger, but with Brown out, Floyd becomes the obvious candidate to be San Diego’s #1 wide receiver. He’s not as physically talented as Meachem, but he’s got better chemistry with the quarterback. The biggest issue is that he’s missed 9 games over the past 2 seasons, he’s heading into his age 31 season, and he’s caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games over the past 2 seasons. He wasn’t able to take advantage of the chance to be a #1 receiver in 2010 either.

There’s definitely upside here with Floyd. In 23 games over the last 2 seasons, he’s caught 80 balls for 1573 yards and 11 touchdowns. I just don’t trust him to get through a 16 game season healthy. He’s also been very inconsistent with 14 games of 3 catches or fewer over the past 2 years. He’s not worth the headaches, especially in PPR leagues.

Projection: 48 catches 850 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (121 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

WR Robert Meachem (San Diego)

8/20/12: Meachem obviously gets a stock up with Brown going down as Brown was a major threat to his job. The fact that Meachem has struggled in Training Camp and has never caught more than 45 passes in a season, despite having Drew Brees as his quarterback, remains, but he should be a starter for the entire season on one of the more explosive offenses in the league. He’ll probably be utilized more in San Diego (if the utilization is in the best interest of the Chargers’ offense is yet to be determined), so he could have a career year because of the pure volume of targets coming his way.

The Chargers coaching staff is talking up Meachem, but that’s just because they gave him so much money. Meachem has been a career disappointment in New Orleans since being taken in the first round and has never gone over 45 catches in a season. Why would he get better now that he has an inferior quarterback and a bunch of guaranteed money in his back pocket? He’ll be overdrafted.

Projection: 48 catches 800 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (116 pts standard/164 pts PPR)

TE Antonio Gates (San Diego)

8/20/12: Brown is probably done for the year. I’ve gone into detail on Floyd’s and Meachem’s short comings. Eddie Royal, the slot receiver, is also injury prone and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008. Gates was their #1 receiver in 2010, the last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson, catching 50 passes for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games before getting hurt, on pace for a ridiculous 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s having a great offseason and is finally healthy and while he’s 32 and might miss a couple games with injuries, he’ll probably be the Chargers’ leading per game receiver when healthy.

I struggle with Antonio Gates. On one hand, he’s had 114 catches for 1560 yards and 17 touchdowns in 23 games over the past 2 years despite never being fully healthy and he’s now healthier than he’s been in the last 2 years. That’s 79 catches for 1085 yards and 12 touchdowns over 16 games. He also caught 50 balls for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in a mere 10 games in 2010 with Vincent Jackson holding out and Rivers could look to him early and often, especially in the red zone, with Jackson gone.

On the other hand, he’s 32 in June and his days of playing all 16 games are behind him. Basically, what you’re getting with Antonio Gates is elite tight end production for around 14 games. Is that worth a 3rd or 4th round pick? In a deep tight end year where you can find a marginal replacement for him on waivers for any games he misses, I say yes.

Projection: 67 catches 1040 receiving yards 10 receiving touchdowns (164 pts standard/231 pts PPR)

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Packers to retire Brett Favre’s jersey “in a year or two”

Even with the way things ended between Brett Favre and the Packers, almost everyone expected that his number would be retired by the organization someday. Favre holds almost every major passing record in NFL history and is arguably the Packers’ greatest player ever. He’ll be a Hall of Famer in 5 years from whenever the hell his last game actually was. Today, the Packers gave a time frame to any Favre jersey retirement ceremonies, saying that it would be retired “in a year or two.” This makes sense as it’s wise to make sure he’s actually retired before doing this.

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Brian Moorman’s job as starting punter for Bills is not safe

Brian Moorman was 5th in the league with 48.2 yards per punt last season, though only 20th in net yards per punt with 38.6. Still, one would expect his job to be safe for next season, especially after the Bills did not draft a single punter. However, according to the Buffalo News, Moorman will face competition from undrafted rookie Shawn Powell in camp. I would expect Moorman to be the victor of that battle, but he will have to earn it and if he shows his 36 years of age in a negative way, he might not win the job.

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Jets praise Santonio Holmes

At the end of last season, when the Jets missed the playoffs, it seemed possible they could cut Santonio Holmes, who was a distraction all season with his comments to the media about the locker room and his general attitude. Also, with only 51 catches for 654 yards and 8 touchdowns, the negatives outweighed the positives for him.

However, now it appears he’s gotten things together. He’s spent a lot of time working out privately with Mark Sanchez and he has been getting praise from all throughout the organization. Wide receivers coach Sanjay Lal called Holmes “very eager, very football-hungry, very competitive” so far in practice, while right tackle Wayne Hunter, who Holmes publicly blamed for his own poor statistics last season, said that Holmes has been “great.” I would project a bounce back season for Holmes, who is 2 seasons removed from catching 79 passes for 1248 yards and 5 touchdowns for the Pittsburgh Steelers, but his quarterback play will limit that. Neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow are great passers.

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Sidney Rice working out for Seahawks again

Sidney Rice has only been fully healthy for one of his 5 career seasons, but when he was he caught 83 passes for 1312 yards and 8 touchdowns. However, he’s one of the league most injury prone players. Just this past year, he suffered 3 separate concussions and had 2 offseason shoulder surgeries. Now, he’s back working out and running routes with the Seahawks once again.

They expect him to be as healthy as he’s ever been by Training Camp, but that might be delusional optimistic thinking for a team that signed Rice to a 41 million dollar deal over 5 years and owes him a guaranteed 7 million in 2012. They also don’t have another #1 receiver and need Rice to step up in that role after just 32 catches for 484 yards and 2 touchdowns last season. There’s some buy low upside with Rice in fantasy leagues, but there’s also a clear downside.

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Titans’ Akeem Ayers trying to become a better pass rusher

As a linebacker coming out of UCLA, some looked at Akeem Ayers as a potential 3-4 outside linebacker because of his size (6-3 254) and blitzing ability. He ended up in a 4-3 with the Titans and not rushing the passer much at all in 2011, but that sounds like it could change next season. Ayers has been spending a lot of time this offseason with new pass rushing coach Keith Millard in an attempt to become a better pass rusher.

This suggests that not only could we see Ayers blitz more in 2012, but with the Titans lacking depth at defensive end, he could play there in obvious passing situations in sort of a joker role made popular by Mathias Kiwunaka, Brian Orakpo, Von Miller, and Kamerion Wimbley, who now happens to be a starting defensive end in Tennessee.

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Patriots not happy with Wes Welker going public with contract negotiations

There have been several reports throughout the last week or two pertaining to Wes Welker and the Patriots. Welker first said he would not holdout into the season, then signed his franchise tender, then complained to the media that the Patriots were low balling him with a contract worse than the 16 million over 2 years he was offered during the season.

The Patriots, as you can expect, are not happy with Welker breaking their tight lipped philosophy and making their negotiations public, this according to the Boston Globe. Welker responded by saying that he “probably misspoke,” whatever that means. There has been some talk that the Patriots could even trade Welker, 31, rather than resign him long term, given their depth at receiver.

That would be surprising, but then again, nothing would surprise me with the Patriots. They surprised when they shipped Richard Seymour to the Raiders for a 1st round pick before the 2009 season and Randy Moss to the Vikings for a 3rd round pick in the middle of the 2010 season. Both of those moves worked out pretty well.

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Dallas Clark visits with Patriots

Two seasons ago, Dallas Clark had 100 catches from Peyton Manning. Now he’s still a free agent in mid May and was passed on by Peyton Manning and the Broncos for his former backup, Jacob Tamme. Clark has been on one visit so far, to Kansas City, who might have been looking at him purely as insurance for another Tony Moeaki injury, as they already have 2 solid tight ends on the roster in Moeaki and Kevin Boss, more of a blocker.

Earlier this week, Clark visited with the Patriots, but it sounds like they were just kicking the tires on him as well. Between Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and blocking tight end Daniel Fells, the Patriots don’t have room for another tight end unless someone gets hurt. Clark might not be on a team to start the season if things don’t change and then the 33 year old would have to decide between waiting for an injury and the phone to ring midseason, or retiring.

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Jets’ LaRon Landry not regularly participating in offseason conditioning program

When LaRon Landry refused to get surgery on his Achilles, a surgery recommended strongly by Redskins team doctors, the Redskins had no problem letting their former #6 overall pick go. With the bad Achilles, he got little to no interest on the open market, aside from the New York Jets, who, in desperate need of safety help, gave him a heavily incentivized 4 million dollar deal and hoped he could find his former form.

That being said, it’s definitely not a good sign for the Jets that Landry has been thus far unable to participate in the team’s offseason conditioning program as regular. The program is completely voluntary, but Landry has barely attended any workouts for reasons unknown to Jets beat writers. My guess is that the reason has something to do with his Achilles.

Between Landry and all of his problems, and the mediocre Eric Smith and Yeremiah Bell, recently signed, the Jets might have the worst safeties in the NFL. Right now, the Jets best bets at the position would be to hope that Landry miraculously stays healthy for 16 games, that one or both of their late round picks at the position breaks out, and/or that Jim Leonhard is healthy for Training Camp, resigns with the Jets, and makes it through the season.

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Titans’ Tommie Campbell to see more action in 2012?

Tommie Campbell is not a very big name and he didn’t play much at all last year, which makes sense seeing as he was a mere 7th round pick rookie. However, Titans defensive coordinator Jerry Gray raised some eyebrows when he called Campbell his team’s 2nd best cornerback, at least in terms of technique. Campbell has all the measurables as well as he ran a 4.31 40 at 6-3 205 at the Division-II All-Star Game last spring.

Campbell was originally recruited by Pittsburgh, but was kicked out for academic reasons. He then spent 2 years as a janitor at the Pittsburgh Airport, before getting a shot at California University of Pennsylvania. His strong measurables helped him get noticed and the Titans are feeling right now like they might have unearthed a gem.

Jason McCourty is established as the team’s #1 cornerback with Cortland Finnegan gone as he’s the only returning starter, but Gray mentioned that Campbell would compete with Alterraun Verner for the #2 job. Verner did a great job in the slot last year and the Titans have expressed interest in keeping him there.

They could have easily pulled the trigger on Dre Kirkpatrick at 20 in the 2012 NFL Draft had he been there. Even if Campbell loses the battle for the starting job, he would seem to be the favorite for the nickelback job as Ryan Mouton is coming back from an Achilles tear and Coty Sensabaugh is just a 4th round pick rookie.

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