Month: May 2012

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Falcons

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

8/27/12: I was worried about how Matt Ryan would do in the Falcons’ new offense because it didn’t seem to fit his skill set. I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Ryan has completed 45 of 60 (75.0%) for 549 yards (9.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Only Russell Wilson has a higher QB rating than him. He’s got plenty of upside in the Falcons’ new explosive offense and plenty of weapons around him. He looks ready for a career year.

7/26/12: Again, nothing new to report here, but when I was doing Atlanta’s season preview, I got a better feel for the type of season we can expect from Ryan this year. He’ll be asked to throw downfield for often and throw more often overall, which should lead to a career high in yards, but also to a career high in interceptions and a career low in completion percentage. Ryan is one of the least accurate deep throwers in the NFL over his career, completing just 31.9% of his passes that go 20+ yards in the air in his career, including 25% last year. This is opposed to 64.4% on the rest of his throws.

Matt Ryan is nothing, but consistent. And boring. But, you can call it consistent. In 2010, he had 3705 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. In 2011, 4177 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He should have a similar season this year, only slightly better as I’m projecting a breakout season from Julio Jones.

Projection: 4430 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdowns (291 pts standard/353 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Michael Turner (Atlanta)

There was some talk about the Falcons cutting or trading Turner, who turned 30 this offseason. Instead, they’ll just be reducing his workload, which Mike Smith himself said. The coaching staff is really high on Jacquizz Rodgers, who figures to see more of the field in his 2nd year. Meanwhile, Turner is on the wrong side of 30 and has 300+ carries in 3 of his last 4 seasons. I’ll let someone else overdraft him.

Projection: 200 carries 900 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 12 catches 100 receiving yards (160 pts standard/172 pts PPR)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

Michael Turner’s loss is Jacquizz Rodgers’ gain. The coaching staff loves him and will get him involved as more than just a passing down back this season. He’ll be a nice change of pace back to Turner and see a good amount of carries. He’ll also have a lot of catches. Given Turner’s age and mileage, there’s nothing but upside with Rodgers.

Projection: 130 carries 560 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 40 catches 310 receiving yards (111 pts standard/151 pts PPR)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

8/13/12: I don’t like to overreact to preseason games, but Julio Jones is insane. He caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in his 1st preseason game in only one quarter of play. I had him “conservatively” ranked as my #5 wide receiver, but it appears that was even too low for him. Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are not out of reach for him.

As a rookie in a lockout shortened season, Jones still managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games, despite battling hamstring problems all year. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his last 5 games, when he finally looked healthy, he had 24 catches for 461 yards and 6 touchdowns. With a full offseason, Jones looks poised for a breakout season now that’s healthy.

Projection: 76 catches 1280 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (200 pts standard/276 pts PPR)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

8/13/12: Any positive for Jones has to be a negative for White, who is heading into his age 31 season and will be a smaller part of the offense last year. Leading the league in targets last year, White is almost purely a volume receiver at this point in his career and he should see a much smaller volume of targets go his way as long as Julio is playing like this.

Julio Jones’ gain will be Roddy White’s loss this season. White is 31 in November and coming off a season in which he led the league in drops. He also led the league in targets, a number that should go down this season with Julio Jones’ emergence. He’ll have to be more efficient to match his numbers from 2011 and I don’t think he will be.

Projection: 84 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/226 pts PPR)

TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez inexplicably had an amazing season at the age of 35 last season with 80 catches for 875 yards and 7 touchdowns despite looking done the year before. However, there’s only downside with him now. He’s 36 and less than 2 years removed from 70 catches for 656 yards and 6 touchdowns. I’d stay away.

Projection: 65 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/168 pts PPR)

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Buccaneers

QB Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

Josh Freeman was pretty bad in 2011, throwing 22 interceptions to 16 touchdowns and only 3592 yards. However, he’s not even 2 years removed from throwing for 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in 2010, with 3451 yards passing. He also has a new #1 wide receiver in Vincent Jackson, two upgrades on the offensive line with Carl Nicks coming in and pushing Jeremy Zuttah to center, a new first round running back, Doug Martin, to take the load off of him, and a new coach who will instill more discipline in this team than Raheem Morris did last year. This will have a particularly positive effect on both LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, who were out of shape last year, which will help Josh Freeman. I basically averaged his 2010 and 2011 together to get his projection. There’s definitely upside to be had here with him as your QB2.

Projection: 3640 yards, 21 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 270 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (240 pts standard/282 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Doug Martin (Tampa Bay)

8/27/12: Doug Martin has not only won the 3rd down job, but he’ll probably get the bulk of the 1st and 2nd down work too. Blount is still a valuable handcuff because of the history of rookie running backs in the NFL (1st round backs have averaged 165 carries per year as rookies since 2007) and because the Buccaneers will run a lot, but Martin is moving up.

Doug Martin will be the lead back over LeGarrette Blount, but rookie running backs haven’t had a ton of success in the past and Blount, however useless he is on 3rd down, is still a great runner on 1st and 2nd down and could see a fairly even split with Martin in Martin’s rookie season on downs 1 and 2, especially if Blount shows up in shape this season. He wasn’t last year, but a new coaching staff and a new back to compete with could very well change that.

Projection: 240 carries 1060 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 35 catches 300 receiving yards (184 pts standard/219 pts PPR)

RB LeGarrette Blount (Tampa Bay)

8/27/12: Blount will still get carries on a conservative offense, especially around the goal line, but he’s the clear backup to Doug Martin.

Everyone is assuming that the selection of Doug Martin by the Buccaneers will be doom for LeGarrette Blount in Tampa Bay. However, you only have to look at Joseph Addai (2009), Chris Wells (2011), DeAngelo Williams (2008), Marion Barber (2008), Fred Jackson (2010) and so on to see how a team spending an early pick on a running back can have a positive effect on the incumbent starter.

Tampa Bay is still planning on running the ball a ton this year and rookie running backs tend to disappoint so Blount should still get a good amount of carries. He’ll actually be motivated this year with a new coaching staff and a 1st round running back to compete with. However useless he is on passing downs, he’s still a good runner when he wants to be and he could get the goal line carries. There’s some buy low upside with him given where he is being drafted.

Projection: 150 carries 670 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 8 catches 60 receiving yards (109 pts standard/117 pts PPR)

WR Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay)

Vincent Jackson only once caught more than 60 balls in a season and has a career high of 68 and that was with Philip Rivers, a top-6 quarterback or so. Now he goes to Tampa Bay, has to learn a new system with new teammates, with a big wad of guaranteed money that he’s so desperately wanted for years (enough to hold out into the 2010 season), and an inferior quarterback. Receivers almost never do well after switching teams and I don’t expect anything different for Jackson. I might be overreacting and overanalyzing, but given where he is being drafted on average, I’ll let him be someone else’s problem.

Projection: 57 catches 860 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (128 pts standard/185 pts PPR)

WR Mike Williams (Tampa Bay)

8/20/12: Mike Williams is having a strong Training Camp and is holding off Preston Parker for the starting job. Not only that, he’s been Josh Freeman’s favorite target in the Preseason, as he’s struggled to develop chemistry with new wide receiver Vincent Jackson. If Williams is back in shape this season, he could definitely lead the team in receiving because he has the familiarity advantage with Freeman. Remember, he caught 65 passes for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010.

7/1/12: Mike Williams already got knocked down the depth chart one spot with the addition of Vincent Jackson this offseason and now he might be knocked out of the starting lineup entirely. Preston Parker is impressing in practice and Williams is not meshing with the new coaching staff. If Parker starts, Williams would play outside on 3-wide receiver sets with Parker moving inside and have minimal fantasy value.

Mike Williams caught 65 passes for 771 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, but had 65 catches for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2010. He was out of shape last year, but with a new coaching staff coming in, that should change. He also has Vincent Jackson opposite him to draw away double teams and his quarterback should have a bounce back year. There’s buy low potential here.

Projection: 61 catches 800 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (116 pts standard/177 pts PPR)

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New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Saints

QB Drew Brees (New Orleans)

Drew Brees was insane last season with 5476 yards, 46 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He won’t be that good again for 3 reasons. One, no one does that. Two, he lost one of his starting receivers, Robert Meachem. Three, he lost his Head Coach. He should see his YPA go down, as well as his TD:INT ratio, but the Saints have thrown the ball 1315 times in the last 2 years so Brees has a chance to get 5000 yards again. They didn’t make an outside hire for interim head coach so the offensive philosophy will remain the same.

Projection: 4930 passing yards, 38 passing touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (325 pts standard/401 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Darren Sproles (New Orleans)

I have Darren Sproles rated lower than most places. The reason behind this is that he gets so few carries, he needs to average a very high YPC and catch a ton of passes to be fantasy relevant. He did that last year, averaging 6.9 YPC and catching 86 passes for 710 yards last season. However, those were both clear career highs and probably not replicable. Also, 7 of his 9 touchdowns were receiving last year. 7 receiving touchdowns for a running back is also unheard of. I don’t see that as replicable either. He should still come close to all 3 of those numbers in an explosive offense and a role he fits in perfectly.

Projection: 80 carries 450 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 70 catches 600 receiving yards (147 pts standard/217 pts PPR)

RB Mark Ingram (New Orleans)

8/7/12: Mark Ingram is healthy and the Saints reportedly want him to have 200 touches or more this season. He was on pace for 213 as a rookie in 10 games, missing 6 with injury. There’s definitely upside with him potentially having a breakout year in 2012. He’ll also get the goal line carries, which there figure to be plenty of in New Orleans.

I’m not expecting the breakout season for Mark Ingram that many are. For one, he just had another knee surgery. He’s not the most durable player. Two, the Saints have 2 other talented backs, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, to take carries from him. Finally, no Saints’ running back has surpassed 176 carries since 2006. Sean Payton loves to use multiple backs and he has multiple talented backs once again this season. I know Payton isn’t the coach, but their two interim coaches are both former Payton assistants. The offensive philosophy will likely be the same. Besides, I’m sure Sean Payton will find some way to bend the rules or break them without getting caught and have some influence on this team.

Projection: 170 carries 770 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 25 catches 170 receiving yards (142 pts standard/167 pts PPR)

RB Pierre Thomas (New Orleans)

8/7/12: Mark Ingram being healthy is bad news for Pierre Thomas. There’s not enough room for Ingram, Sproles, and Thomas to all have fantasy value. He’s a pure handcuff to Ingram.

Pierre Thomas is the 3rd running back in New Orleans again. Like last year, there’s no point in owning him unless there’s an injury. He’ll get 100 or so carries (110 last year) and catch a good amount of passes (a career high 50 last year), but not enough to make much of a mark in fantasy.

Projection: 90 carries 410 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 30 catches 230 receiving yards (88 pts standard/118 pts PPR)

WR Marques Colston (New Orleans)

He gets a rep for being injury prone, but he’s only had less than 70 catches for 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns once in his 6 year career so there’s minimal downside for him. He remains the top wide receiver on one of the best passing offenses in the league. In 14 games last year, he had 80 catches for 1143 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games. He’s only played 16 games twice, but there’s potential for improvement on last year’s numbers.

Projection: 83 catches 1190 receiving yards 9 receiving touchdowns (173 pts standard/256 pts PPR)

WR Lance Moore (New Orleans)

Moore is another player with an injury history, but he had 79 catches for 928 yards and 10 touchdowns in 16 games in 2008 and 66 catches for 763 yards and 8 touchdowns in 16 games in 2010. Last year, he had 52 catches for 657 yards and 8 touchdowns in 14 games. With Robert Meachem gone, there’s definitely room for improvement on those numbers, especially if he stays healthy the whole season.

Projection: 63 catches 750 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (123 pts standard/186 pts PPR)

WR Devery Henderson (New Orleans)

Henderson will step into the starting lineup for Robert Meachem. The problem is he’s not really that talented. He had 32 catches for 503 yards and 2 touchdowns as the 4th receiver and should get close to the 40 catches for 620 yards and 6 touchdowns Meachem had last year, but there’s not a ton of upside here unless Colston gets hurt. Henderson could even see rookie 4th rounder Nick Toon challenge for his job late in the season.

Projection: 42 catches 630 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (93 pts standard/135 pts PPR)

TE Jimmy Graham (New Orleans)

Jimmy Graham caught 99 passes for 1310 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. He probably will have less this season as Brees can’t possibly be as good as last year, and also because of the situation at Head Coach. However, I still like him over Rob Gronkowski because his team didn’t add a ton of receiving options through free agency.

Projection: 88 catches 1180 receiving yards 11 receiving touchdowns (184 pts standard/272 pts PPR)

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Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Vikings

QB Christian Ponder (Minnesota)

Christian Ponder should start 16 games this year. Unlike last year, he’s the week 1 starter and unlike last year, he has a capable blindside protector so he’s less likely to miss time with injury. As a team, the Vikings passed 510 times last year. That seems about right for Ponder, who should improve upon his 6.4 YPA from last year as he goes into his 2nd season.

He’ll also have better protection, which will allow him to throw downfield better. 6.8 YPA over 510 throws is 3468 yards. The Vikings as a team threw for 20 touchdowns and 17 interceptions last year (13:13 for Ponder). That sounds about right for Ponder in 2012. He also adds value as a runner as well. He’s a QB2 with upside.

Projection: 3470 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 250 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (217 pts standard/257 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Adrian Peterson (Minnesota)

7/1/12: The good news is that Peterson will probably be back for week 1. The bad news is that he may be Toby Gerhart’s backup when that happens, in an effort to ease him back in. I wouldn’t take him in the first 2 rounds, despite his upside, and if I did take him, I would make sure to grab Gerhart as a handcuff.

Adrian Peterson tore his ACL late last season, but he’s making a remarkable recovery and could play week 1. He put himself at 50/50 for Training Camp and it’s definitely a situation to monitor because of how good Peterson is when healthy. It wouldn’t be unheard of for Peterson to be back week 1. Wes Welker did the same in 2010 with a shorter recovery period. However, even if he plays all 16 games, I expect a career worst season for Peterson, as was the case with Welker in 2010. The Vikings won’t want to overwork him and will give some carries to Toby Gerhart, a former 2nd round pick. He could also average a career low YPC.

Projection: 200 carries 840 rushing yards 8 total touchdowns 21 catches 160 receiving yards (148 pts standard/169 pts PPR)

RB Toby Gerhart (Minnesota)

7/1/12: Gerhart could be the Vikings’ lead back even if Peterson is healthy to start the season. I don’t know how long that would last, but he’s a capable back and the definition as a mid round sleeper at his current ADP in the 9th round. He’s a value handcuff for Peterson owners as well.

Any loss of carries by Adrian Peterson this season will be Gerhart’s gain and he’ll start and get the majority of the carries in any games Peterson misses this season because they don’t have another back. He rushed for 431 yards and 1 touchdown on 85 carries in 5 starts last season. The upside is there late and he’s an incredibly valuable handcuff for Adrian Peterson owners.

Projection: 140 carries 630 rushing yards 6 total touchdowns 28 catches 220 receiving yards (121 pts standard/149 pts PPR)

WR Percy Harvin (Minnesota)

7/1/12: Harvin expressed frustration with his playing time in 2011 and could get more as a result. Harvin was actually 2nd on his own team in snaps played at receiver last year behind the mediocre Devin Aromashodu. Harvin has real fantasy value early in drafts. He was the #8 scoring fantasy football receiver last year and in his last 11 games, he had 69 catches for 784 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 100 catches for 1140 yards and 9 touchdowns over 9 games.

He could even exceed those numbers if he plays more and with Christian Ponder playing his 1st full season as a starter. On top of that, he rushed for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns on 52 carries. He could easily be a top-5 fantasy football wide receiver this year. He’s currently the 19th receiver off the board based on average draft position because people don’t pay attention to his rushing ability. If he even matches what he did last year, he’s a steal at his current ADP and there’s definitely upside.

Percy Harvin could have a career best season in 2012 with improved quarterback play, a better offensive line to protect the quarterback, and still very little competition for targets from other receivers. He’s a really underrated right now. He rushed for 345 yards and 2 scores last year, which helped make him the #8 fantasy receiver. He could easily improve on that this season, but he goes in the 4th or 5th round (19th receiver) on average because people overlook his rushing ability.

Projection: 100 catches 1170 receiving yards 45 carries 250 rushing yards 9 total touchdowns (196 pts standard/296 pts PPR)

TE Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota)

8/7/12: Kyle Rudolph is a 2nd year tight end having a very strong Training Camp. Meanwhile, #2 tight end John Carlson could miss a large portion of the preseason. If he had even the 70 targets than Visanthe Shiancoe, the incumbent starter who is gone, had last season, he would have had 47 catches for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. Heading into his 2nd season in the league, with possibly improved quarterback play, he could exceed those numbers and end up being the 2nd leading receiver on a weak receiving corps. He’s a high-end TE2 with upside.

Projection: 48 catches 620 receiving yards 5 total touchdowns (92 pts/140 pts PPR)

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Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Lions

QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

7/26/12: Like with Megatron, nothing new to report here, but my projections were a little high here. He’s unlikely to have 663 passing attempts again and he’s only once played all 16 games. He’s still a one year wonder not quite on the level of Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. He’s still a nice value if you can get him in the 3rd round though.

I like Matt Stafford’s chances to approach 5000 yards again as well. No team passes the ball more than the Lions. They passed 663 times last year and 633 times in 2010 without Stafford. He has a ton of weapons in Calvin Johnson, Titus Young, Nate Burleson, Ryan Broyles, Brandon Pettigrew, and Tony Scheffler. He might not throw for 41 touchdowns again, but he still deserves to be a high pick in fantasy circles.

Projection: 4720 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 70 rushing yards, 0 rushing touchdown (305 pts standard/375 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Mikel Leshoure (Detroit)

8/20/12: Leshoure is still not 100% from his Achilles injury. He’s missed most of Training Camp and has yet to play a Preseason game. He’ll miss the first 2 games of the season anyway with suspension, but it’s definitely possible he misses a couple more with injury. Meanwhile, Kevin Smith has had a great offseason and will get the week 1 start in the absence of Best and Leshoure. He’s the Detroit back to own because he could end up being the lead back all season.

I’ll take Leshoure over Best. Yes, Leshoure is facing a suspension for a marijuana related arrest, but sources are saying it’ll only be a 2 game suspension because he entered a league substance abuse program and has been getting drug tested multi times weekly and has failed none. Leshoure is still the more durable back. He doesn’t have Best’s extensive injury history and he’s better built to withstand hits than Best. He’ll also get the goal line carries when both are healthy.

Projection: 140 carries 590 rushing yards 5 total touchdowns 17 catches 130 receiving yards (102 pts standard/119 pts PPR)

RB Kevin Smith (Detroit)

8/20/12:  With Best likely out for at least 6 games and Leshoure out for at least 2 games, Smith will get at least two starts this season, but it seems like he’ll continue to be the lead back even once Leshoure returns as Leshoure is still struggling to return from his torn Achilles. There’s definitely upside with Smith as a RB3, but remember, he has a pretty checkered injury history too.

8/7/12: Mikel Leshoure is still coming back from an Achilles tear and will be suspended for the first 2 games of the season. Jahvid Best is reportedly “weeks” away from being cleared to practice. Smith will almost definitely be their week 1 starter and could be much more if he impresses early. There’s definite sleeper value here.

Projection: 160 carries 700 rushing yards 7 total touchdowns 28 catches 220 receiving yards (134 pts standard/162 pts PPR)

WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

7/26/12: No news to report here, but my projections were a little high for Calvin Johnson. It’s unlikely that anyone, even Johnson, can repeat what Johnson did last year, especially since his team is unlikely to pass 666 times again, has other weapons, and his quarterback has only once made it through a 16 game slate. Johnson has also had his own injury history, only playing all 16 games once before last year. He’s still my #1 receiver, but don’t buy TOO high with him expecting him to catch 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns again.

Calvin Johnson was insane last season in his first full season with an actual quarterback, catching 96 passes for 1681 yards and 16 touchdowns. He might not quite match those numbers this season, but with Stafford throwing him the ball, he remains the #1 fantasy receiver by a good margin, barring the curse of John Madden striking him down.

Projection: 87 catches 1450 receiving yards 13 receiving touchdowns (223 pts standard/310 pts PPR)

WR Titus Young (Detroit)

7/26/12: Titus Young is fully expected to win the starting job opposite Calvin Johnson. Titus Young caught 48 passes for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns as a mere rookie last year, despite 84 targets. Incumbent starter, Nate Burleson, caught 73 passes for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns on 110 targets. If Young had Burleson’s 110 targets last year, he would have caught 63 passes for 795 yards and 8 touchdowns if you extrapolate his numbers. In his 2nd year in the league, he should exceed even those numbers, even if his team does pass less than the ridiculous 666 times they passed last year.

Titus Young might move into the starting lineup this year. The marginal Nate Burleson was targeted 110 times as a starter last year and turned that into 73 catches for 757 yards and 3 touchdowns. Young already had 48 catches for 607 yards and 6 touchdowns on 84 targets as the #3 receiver last year. The Young/Burleson battle will be one to watch in Training Camp and the preseason, but there’s definitely upside with Young. Even if he doesn’t start the season as the starter, he could move into the starting lineup during the season.

Projection: 66 catches 850 receiving yards 8 receiving touchdowns (133 pts standard/199 pts PPR)

TE Brandon Pettigrew (Detroit)

Pettigrew was actually the Lions’ 2nd most targeted receiver last year and he turned that into 83 catches for 777 yards and 5 touchdowns. He could see a slight dip in production this year with the emergence of Titus Young and the addition of Ryan Broyles, but he’s still a solid TE1.

Projection: 72 catches 730 receiving yards 5 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/175 pts PPR)

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Deion Branch may not make the Patriots’ final 53

stevenlourie News

The Patriots seemingly brought in a million wide receivers this offseason and it’s a bit unclear how they’ll stack up on the depth chart. ESPN Boston’s Mike Reiss tried to help make sense of the mess. He said that Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, and Jabar Gaffney were locks to make the roster, and that Matt Slater and Julian Edelman were borderline locks because of their age and ability to play special teams and defense.

That means that Deion Branch may not make the Patriots’ final 53 and will need the Patriots to keep 6 wide receivers. If Edelman and Slater prove that they are capable #4 and #5 receivers in Training Camp, Branch could easily be cut and at 33 years of age with an injury history and after being cut by the only team he ever had success with, he might not find another job. This also means that Chad Ochocinco is likely going to be left off the final roster, as will offseason acquisitions Donte Stallworth and Anthony Gonzalez. 7th round rookie Jeremy Ebert will likely start this career on the practice squad.

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Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley expected to get the bulk of the carries for Patriots

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Though they signed veteran running back Joseph Addai, ESPN Boston’s Mike Reiss believes that 2nd year players Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will get the “bulk of the carries” for the Patriots this year. This would make the most sense, but Bill Belichick is often unpredictable with his running backs and tends to go with experience over anything, which Addai represents. As it stands right now, I would say Vereen and Ridley will split 1st and 2nd down carries and passing down specialist Danny Woodhead will come in on passing downs. Addai may or may not make the Patriots’ final 53 man roster.

Alterraun Verner lining up in Cortland Finnegan’s old role in Titans OTAs

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The Titans’ biggest offseason loss was Cortland Finnegan, who signed a massive deal in St. Louis, but the Titans feel they have the in house talent to make up for the loss. Jason McCourty was an above average cornerback last year and will remain a starter this year. Meanwhile, Alterraun Verner is lining up as the starter opposite him in OTAs and, like Finnegan did before him, he’s moving inside to cover the slot in 3-cornerback sets.

There was some talk earlier this month that Tommie Campbell could be the starter opposite McCourty after defensive coordinator Jerry Gray called him the team’s 2nd best cornerback. However, now it appears that Campbell will be left competing to play in 3-cornerback sets with rookie 4th round pick Coty Sensabaugh and veteran Ryan Mouton, who is coming off a major injury. Whoever wins that job will line up outside, while Verner moves inside. That’s Verner’s old role from 2011.

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Jets’ Mark Sanchez “not really thinking” about Tim Tebow

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All the focus in New York with the Jets is around offseason acquisition Tim Tebow, but if you ask incumbent starter Mark Sanchez, he’ll tell you that he’s “not really thinking” about Tim Tebow, or at least that’s what he told ESPN New York. However, it’s possible to translate this quotation as Sanchez saying he “trying not to think about” Tebow. Sanchez obviously knows that he if plays like he did last year, he won’t keep his starting job. My prediction is that Sanchez starts a few games, struggles, and then Tebow takes over.

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Bengals’ AJ Green praises teammate Mohamed Sanu

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The Bengals are having as close to an open competition for the #2 receiver job as you possibly can get. Rookies Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, inexperienced former undrafted free agent Armon Binns, and Patriots castoff Brandon Tate are all in the running. If you ask the man who they are competing to line up opposite, AJ Green, Mohamed Sanu is the favorite.

Green praised Sanu’s football speed and mentioned that he didn’t understand Sanu’s perceived lack of speed coming out of Rutgers, a reason why he fell to them in the 3rd round. A player the Bengals have compared to TJ Houshmanzadeh, I agree with Green’s scouting report of Sanu and the Cincinnati Enquirer’s prediction that he will win the starting job. The Bengals will make him earn it, however.

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