Anyone who follows football knows how big a part of the game that parity is. One team can be good one year and bad the next and vice versa for seemingly no reason. This series, called Predicting Parity, seeks to discover why that is and figure out how to predict it. One statistic, turnovers/takeaways, also seems to have a tremendous amount of parity on a yearly basis and since there is a strong correlation between turnovers and wins, this has a lot to do with parity.

The following chart shows teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers.

Team	Year	Turnovers	Turnovers next	Change in wins	AVG Turnovers	AVG Turnovers next	Difference	AVG Change in Wins
San Francisco	2002	17	25	-3	16.63888889	26.27777778	-9.638889	-2.694444444
Kansas City	2002	15	18	5
Jacksonville	2002	15	31	-1
Oakland	2002	19	26	-7
NY Jets	2002	19	20	-3
Kansas City	2003	18	27	-4
Indianapolis	2004	17	18	2
NY Jets	2004	16	34	-6
San Diego	2004	18	26	-3
Cincinnati	2005	18	24	-3
Denver	2005	16	27	-4
Indianapolis	2005	18	18	-2
Jacksonville	2005	16	22	-4
Seattle	2005	15	33	-4
San Diego	2006	14	24	-3
Indianapolis	2006	18	19	1
St. Louis	2006	18	37	-5
Atlanta	2006	19	24	-3
Washington	2006	15	29	4
New England	2007	15	21	-5
Indianapolis	2007	19	17	-1
Miami	2008	13	29	-4
Tennessee	2008	17	31	-5
Indianapolis	2008	17	24	2
NY Giants	2008	13	31	-4
Carolina	2008	19	31	-4
Washington	2008	17	28	-4
Green Bay	2009	16	22	-1
Minnesota	2009	18	37	-6
Dallas	2009	19	30	-5
San Diego	2009	17	29	-4
New England	2010	10	17	-1
Pittsburgh	2010	18	28	0
Kansas City	2010	14	28	-3
Atlanta	2010	17	21	-3
Tampa Bay	2010	19	40	-6
San Francisco	2011	10	?	?
Green Bay	2011	14	?	?
New England	2011	17	?	?
Cleveland	2011	19	?	?

As you can see, there have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. Of those 36 teams, only two either had the same amount or fewer the next year. Those two teams were both the Colts. The Colts also were the only team to have 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times so they look like an outlier. That’s makes sense since they had one of the most consistent quarterbacks of the decade. If you take out Indianapolis’ 5 times, the increase in turnovers jumps to 10.97 and decrease in wins jumps to 3.19.

That’s good news for the Patriots and Packers, two teams who had fewer than 20 turnovers last year, who have very strong quarterbacks. For San Francisco and Cleveland, however, this is bad news for their offense so they are unlikely to be as efficient as they were last year. Cleveland added players such as Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson this offseason so that should cancel out the decrease in efficiency, but San Francisco could easily see a significant decrease in wins after tying the NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season last year.

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The following chart shows teams since 2002 with 35 or more turnovers.

Team	Year	Turnovers	Turnovers next	Change in wins	AVG Turnovers	AVG Turnovers next	Difference	AVG Change in Wins
Carolina	2002	40	31	4	38.07142857	28.33333333	9.73809524	1.607142857
Washington	2002	40	28	-2
Minnesota	2002	41	24	3
St. Louis	2002	45	39	7
Chicago	2002	35	29	3
Arizona	2002	35	36	-1
Cincinnati	2002	36	22	6
Pittsburgh	2002	35	28	-4.5
Baltimore	2003	38	23	-1
NY Giants	2003	38	24	2
St. Louis	2003	39	39	-4
Arizona	2003	36	29	2
San Francisco	2004	40	34	2
Cleveland	2004	40	27	2
Miami	2004	42	30	5
Chicago	2004	37	28	6
Tampa Bay	2004	36	23	6
Dallas	2004	37	27	3
St. Louis	2004	39	37	-2
Oakland	2004	35	23	-1
New Orleans	2005	40	21	7
Green Bay	2005	42	32	4
Arizona	2005	35	29	0
St. Louis	2005	37	18	2
Oakland	2006	43	37	2
Detroit	2006	38	36	4
Pittsburgh	2006	35	22	2
Cleveland	2006	39	29	6
Baltimore	2007	40	21	6
Houston	2007	37	32	0
Oakland	2007	38	23	1
Arizona	2007	36	30	1
St. Louis	2007	37	31	-1
Detroit	2007	36	29	-7
San Francisco	2008	35	24	1
Detroit	2009	41	25	4
Arizona	2009	36	35	-5
NY Giants	2010	42	24	-1
Carolina	2010	37	23	4
Minnesota	2010	37	26	-3
Buffalo	2010	39	30	2
Arizona	2010	35	32	3
Washington	2011	35	?	?
Philadelphia	2011	38	?	?
Tampa Bay	2011	40	?	?

One thing that stands out is the 42 teams who’ve had 35 or more turnovers since 2002 have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 averaged by the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers. If that doesn’t prove that turnovers are unpredictable on a yearly basis, I don’t know what does. Those 42 teams have averaged 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and won 1.61 more games. It’s not as significant of a difference in wins as it is with teams with fewer than 20 turnovers, but it’s still notable. It’s also notable that turnovers, in general, are pretty unpredictable on a yearly basis.

Teams done in by turnovers in 2011, like Washington, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay, have major sleeper potential in 2012. Philadelphia also finished significantly worse than their Pythagorean Expectation and won their final 4 games. They could have a huge year in 2012. Washington upgraded the quarterback position and should be much better this year, especially after failing to meet their Pythagorean Expectation last year. Tampa Bay was on the 1st list in 2010 when they won 10 games and had fewer than 20 turnovers. Last year they had more than 35 and won 4 games. They should be somewhere in the middle this season.

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The following chart shows teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer takeaways.

Team	Year	Takeaways	Takeaways next	Change in wins	AVG Takeaways	AVG Takeaways next	Difference	AVG Change in Wins
Buffalo	2002	19	18	-2	18.28947368	25.81578947	-7.5263158	1.407894737
Cincinnati	2002	20	24	6
Chicago	2003	20	29	-2
NY Jets	2003	20	33	4
Denver	2003	20	20	0
San Diego	2003	20	33	8
Buffalo	2003	18	39	3
Denver	2004	20	34	3
Oakland	2004	18	19	-1
Green Bay	2004	15	19	-6
St. Louis	2004	15	23	-2
New Orleans	2005	19	19	7
Green Bay	2005	19	27	4
Oakland	2005	19	23	-2
New England	2005	18	32	2
Houston	2005	19	19	4
Tennessee	2005	15	28	4
New Orleans	2006	19	23	-3
Houston	2006	19	25	2
Washington	2006	12	24	4
Tampa Bay	2006	19	35	5
Carolina	2006	20	30	-1
Philadelphia	2007	19	29	1.5
Jacksonville	2008	17	25	2
Denver	2008	13	30	0
Washington	2008	18	17	-4
Atlanta	2008	18	28	-2
Seattle	2008	20	23	1
Detroit	2008	20	23	2
San Francisco	2008	18	33	1
Washington	2009	17	27	2
St. Louis	2009	20	26	6
Cleveland	2009	19	28	0
Oakland	2009	20	24	3
Denver	2010	18	18	4
Miami	2010	19	19	-1
Jacksonville	2010	18	28	-3
Houston	2010	18	27	4
New Orleans	2011	16	?	?
St. Louis	2011	18	?	?
Arizona	2011	19	?	?
Cleveland	2011	20	?	?
Miami	2011	19	?	?
Denver	2011	18	?	?
Indianapolis	2011	17	?	?
Pittsburgh	2011	15	?	?

The change isn’t as significant here, but the 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games. That means that top-10 scoring defenses like Pittsburgh (#1), Cleveland (#5) and Miami (#6) could be even better this season. The Steelers won 12 games last year and had the league’s best scoring defense despite the fewest amount of takeaways in the league. That’s impressive and bodes well for the future. Meanwhile, as poor as Cleveland’s and Miami’s offenses are, their defenses will win them some games. If Matt Moore or David Garrard can game manage like Matt Moore did late last year (6-6 as a starter), they could be a decent team.

Arizona had a middle of the pack defense last year (17th) and while they could improve, their inconsistencies at quarterback, as well as a poor offensive line, will make their offense struggle. They greatly exceeded their Pythagorean Expectation last year on the strength of a 4-0 record in overtime. They could easily be among the worst in the NFL this year. New Orleans was also middle of the pack (13th). Their missing guys thanks to BountyGate, but they also added some guys in free agency so they could be an improved defense to match their amazing offense. If their offense can remain amazing in spite of the loss of Sean Payton, they should be among the best in the NFL again.

Denver, Indianapolis, and St. Louis all had among the worst defenses in the league last year, 24th,  28th, and 26th respectively. Denver’s poor defense was part of the reason why they had a Pythagorean Expectation significantly lower than their record. Their offense will be improved with Peyton Manning coming in and while their defense figures to be a little better, that will once again be a weakness this year.

Indianapolis and St. Louis, meanwhile, were the league’s worst two teams last year, but they have reason to be optimistic this season. Indianapolis has a strong draft class headlined by Andrew Luck, who likely solidifies the most important position on the field. Meanwhile, St. Louis should have better health than last year and added players like Cortland Finnegan and Scott Wells in the offseason.

The following chart shows teams since 2002 with 35 or more takeaways.

Team	Year	Takeaways	Takeaways next	Change in wins	AVG Takeaways	AVG Takeaways next	Difference	AVG Change in Wins
Green Bay	2002	45	32	-2	38.08333333	27.5	10.5833333	-2
Tampa Bay	2002	38	33	-5
Philadelphia	2002	38	26	0
Atlanta	2002	39	31	4.5
New Orleans	2002	38	27	-1
St. Louis	2003	46	15	-4
New England	2003	41	36	0
San Francisco	2003	37	21	-5
Minnesota	2003	35	22	-1
Kansas City	2003	37	21	-6
Miami	2003	36	25	-6
Carolina	2004	38	38	4
Seattle	2004	35	24	4
Indianapolis	2004	36	29	2
Buffalo	2004	39	30	-4
New England	2004	36	18	-4
Cincinnati	2004	36	43	3
Minnesota	2005	35	36	-3
NY Giants	2005	37	28	-3
Carolina	2005	38	20	-3
Cincinnati	2005	43	24	-3
Chicago	2006	43	33	-6
Minnesota	2006	36	31	2
Baltimore	2006	37	23	-8
San Diego	2007	48	24	-3
Indianapolis	2007	37	26	-1
Cincinnati	2007	35	24	-2.5
Tampa Bay	2007	35	30	0
Detroit	2007	35	20	-7
Green Bay	2009	40	32	-1
Philadelphia	2009	38	34	-1
New Orleans	2009	39	25	-2
Carolina	2009	37	29	-6
Chicago	2010	35	31	-3
Pittsburgh	2010	35	15	0
New England	2010	38	34	-1
San Francisco	2011	38	?	?
Green Bay	2011	38	?	?

As was the case with turnovers, the difference between average takeaways by teams who had previously had 35 or more and by teams who had previously had 20 or less is minimal. Teams with 35 or more had 27.5 in their next season and teams with 20 or fewer had 25.8 in their next season. I’ll repeat it, it’s very tough to predict turnover totals on a yearly basis. Teams with 35 or more have had 10.58 fewer turnovers and 2 fewer wins in their next season.

Two familiar teams here, San Francisco and Green Bay. Green Bay had fewer than 20 turnovers and more than 35 takeaways. That could be a sign of a regression, but if anyone can keep up a low turnover rate, it’s Aaron Rodgers (and Tom Brady). Defensively, meanwhile, they’ll have to play better this year as they won’t be able to rely solely on the turnover as much in 2012. They added three good rookies, Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy, and Casey Hayward to help them play better, but they could be worse than the 19th rated defense they had last year. They also greatly exceeded their Pythagorean Expectation last year, but they have the ultimate trump card: the quarterback. They probably won’t win 15 games again, but 12 or 13 is definitely possible.

San Francisco, meanwhile, could be in some trouble. They don’t have an elite quarterback like the Packers so it’s highly unlikely they’ll even be remotely close to the mere 10 turnovers they had last year, fewest all time. Defensively, they have a lot of talent, but suffered almost no injuries on that side of the ball last year and had so many players with breakout years. If they have a few injuries and a few guys regress defensively, it’ll be noticeable. They won’t be bad defensively, but they probably won’t be the 2nd rated scoring defense they were last year. They figure to be noticeably worse than the 13-3 they were last year.

The following chart shows teams since 2002 with turnover differentials of +15 or better.

Team	Year	Turnover Diff	Turnover Diff Next	Change in wins	AVG Turnover Diff	AVG Turnover Diff Next	Difference	AVG Change in Wins
Green Bay	2002	17	0	-2	18.45	2.1	16.35	-2.3
Tampa Bay	2002	17	2	-5
Kansas City	2002	16	19	5
Kansas City	2003	19	-6	-6
New England	2003	17	9	0
Indianapolis	2004	19	11	2
NY Jets	2004	17	-10	-6
San Diego	2004	15	-6	-3
Cincinnati	2005	25	5	-3
Denver	2005	18	2	-4
Baltimore	2006	15	-17	-8
San Diego	2007	24	4	-3
Indianapolis	2007	18	9	-1
New England	2007	16	1	-5
Tampa Bay	2007	15	4	0
Miami	2008	17	-8	-4
Green Bay	2009	24	10	-1
Philadelphia	2009	15	9	-1
New England	2010	28	17	-1
Pittsburgh	2010	17	-13	0
Green Bay	2011	24
San Francisco	2011	28
New England	2011	17

This is basically combining things. Turnover differential is basically just takeaways minus turnovers. Teams with differential of +15 have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. We see some usual suspects here. Green Bay, San Francisco, and New England. Green Bay and New England are better off because of their quarterbacks so while they might not combine for 28 wins next year, they should be among the best in their respective conferences. San Francisco, as I’ve gone into, could be in some trouble.

The following chart shows teams since 2002 with turnover differentials of -15 or worse.

Team	Year	Turnover Diff	Turnover Diff Next	Change in wins	AVG Turnover Diff	AVG Turnover Diff Next	Difference	AVG Change in Wins
Cincinnati	2002	-15	2	6	-17.94736842	1.368421053	-19.3157895	2.578947368
Minnesota	2002	-18	11	3
St. Louis	2002	-19	7	5
Buffalo	2003	-16	10	3
NY Giants	2003	-16	4	2
Dallas	2004	-15	-1	3
San Francisco	2004	-19	-10	2
St. Louis	2004	-24	-14	-2
Miami	2004	-17	0	5
Oakland	2004	-17	-4	-1
New Orleans	2005	-21	-2	7
Green Bay	2005	-23	-5	4
Oakland	2006	-20	-11	2
Baltimore	2007	-17	13	6
San Francisco	2008	-17	9	1
Denver	2008	-17	7	0
Detroit	2009	-18	4	4
Jacksonville	2010	-15	5	-3
Buffalo	2010	-17	1	2
Tampa Bay	2011	-16

The opposite of the last chart, but similar results. These are teams with turnover differentials of -15 or worse since 2002. Those teams have had a differential 19.3 points better in their next season and won 2.58 more games. Further proving that takeaways and turnovers vary on a yearly basis is the fact that the teams with differentials higher than +15 and teams with differential lower than -15 have almost the same differential in their next season, a difference of .7. Tampa Bay qualifies in this group this year and I’ve already gone into why they could have a bounce back season this year, especially after adding players like Carl Nicks, Doug Martin, and Vincent Jackson.

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