Anyone who follows football knows how big a part of the game that parity is. One team can be good one year and bad the next and vice versa for seemingly no reason. This series, called Predicting Parity, seeks to discover why that is and figure out how to predict it. Every year since the divisional format changed in 2002, at least 5 teams that did not make the playoffs the year before make it into the playoffs. Likewise, at least 5 are knocked out of the playoffs. The following chart is a list of these teams starting in 2003, the 1st year after 2002.
| Team | Year | Change in Wins | Next Change in Wins | Team | Year | Change in Wins | Next Change in Wins | |
| Oakland | 2003 | -7 | 1 | Dallas | 2003 | 5 | -4 | |
| Pittsburgh | 2003 | -4.5 | 9 | Carolina | 2003 | 4 | -4 | |
| NY Jets | 2003 | -3 | 4 | St. Louis | 2003 | 5 | -4 | |
| Cleveland | 2003 | -4 | -1 | Seattle | 2003 | 3 | -1 | |
| Tampa Bay | 2003 | -5 | -2 | New England | 2003 | 5 | 0 | |
| San Francisco | 2003 | -3 | -5 | Baltimore | 2003 | 3 | -1 | |
| NY Giants | 2003 | -6 | 2 | Kansas City | 2003 | 5 | -6 | |
| Atlanta | 2003 | -4.5 | 6 | Denver | 2003 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dallas | 2004 | -4 | 3 | Minnesota | 2004 | -1 | 1 | |
| Carolina | 2004 | -4 | 4 | Atlanta | 2004 | 6 | -3 | |
| Baltimore | 2004 | -1 | -3 | NY Jets | 2004 | 4 | -6 | |
| Tennessee | 2004 | -7 | -1 | Pittsburgh | 2004 | 9 | -4 | |
| Kansas City | 2004 | -6 | 3 | San Diego | 2004 | 8 | -3 | |
| Minnesota | 2005 | 1 | -3 | Carolina | 2005 | 4 | -3 | |
| Atlanta | 2005 | -3 | -1 | Washington | 2005 | 4 | -5 | |
| NY Jets | 2005 | -6 | 6 | NY Giants | 2005 | 5 | -3 | |
| San Diego | 2005 | -3 | 5 | Chicago | 2005 | 6 | 2 | |
| Philadelphia | 2005 | -7 | 4 | Tampa Bay | 2005 | 6 | -7 | |
| Green Bay | 2005 | -6 | 4 | Cincinnati | 2005 | 3 | -3 | |
| St. Louis | 2005 | -2 | 2 | Jacksonville | 2005 | 3 | -4 | |
| Carolina | 2006 | -3 | -1 | NY Jets | 2006 | 6 | -6 | |
| Washington | 2006 | -6 | 4 | San Diego | 2006 | 5 | -3 | |
| Tampa Bay | 2006 | -7 | 5 | Philadelphia | 2006 | 4 | -2 | |
| Cincinnati | 2006 | -3 | -1 | New Orleans | 2006 | 7 | -3 | |
| Jacksonville | 2006 | -4 | 3 | Kansas City | 2006 | -1 | -5 | |
| Pittsburgh | 2006 | -3 | 2 | Baltimore | 2006 | 7 | -8 | |
| NY Jets | 2007 | -6 | 5 | Washington | 2007 | 4 | -1 | |
| Philadelphia | 2007 | -2 | 1.5 | Tampa Bay | 2007 | 5 | 0 | |
| New Orleans | 2007 | -3 | 1 | Jacksonville | 2007 | 3 | -6 | |
| Kansas City | 2007 | -5 | -2 | Pittsburgh | 2007 | 2 | 2 | |
| Baltimore | 2007 | -8 | 6 | Green Bay | 2007 | 5 | -7 | |
| Chicago | 2007 | -6 | 2 | Tennessee | 2007 | 2 | 3 | |
| Washington | 2008 | -1 | -4 | Baltimore | 2008 | 6 | -2 | |
| Tampa Bay | 2008 | 0 | -6 | Philadelphia | 2008 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
| Jacksonville | 2008 | -6 | 2 | Minnesota | 2008 | 2 | 2 | |
| Green Bay | 2008 | -7 | 5 | Carolina | 2008 | 5 | -4 | |
| Dallas | 2008 | -4 | 2 | Atlanta | 2008 | 7 | -2 | |
| Seattle | 2008 | -6 | 1 | Arizona | 2008 | 1 | 1 | |
| New England | 2008 | -5 | -1 | Miami | 2008 | 10 | -4 | |
| Miami | 2009 | -4 | 0 | Green Bay | 2009 | 5 | -1 | |
| Carolina | 2009 | -4 | -6 | Dallas | 2009 | 2 | -5 | |
| Atlanta | 2009 | -2 | 4 | New England | 2009 | -1 | 4 | |
| NY Giants | 2009 | -4 | 2 | New Orleans | 2009 | 5 | -2 | |
| Pittsburgh | 2009 | -3 | 3 | NY Jets | 2009 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tennessee | 2009 | -5 | -2 | Cincinnati | 2009 | 5.5 | -6 | |
| Dallas | 2010 | -5 | 2 | Atlanta | 2010 | 4 | -3 | |
| Cincinnati | 2010 | -6 | 5 | Pittsburgh | 2010 | 3 | 0 | |
| Minnesota | 2010 | -6 | -3 | Kansas City | 2010 | 6 | -3 | |
| Arizona | 2010 | -5 | 3 | Seattle | 2010 | 2 | 0 | |
| San Diego | 2010 | -4 | -1 | Chicago | 2010 | 4 | -3 | |
| Chicago | 2011 | -3 | Cincinnati | 2011 | 5 | |||
| Seattle | 2011 | 0 | NY Giants | 2011 | -1 | |||
| Kansas City | 2011 | -3 | Detroit | 2011 | 4 | |||
| Philadelphia | 2011 | -2 | San Francisco | 2011 | 7 | |||
| NY Jets | 2011 | -3 | Houston | 2011 | 4 | |||
| Indianapolis | 2011 | -8 | Denver | 2011 | 4 | |||
| 1.37 | -2.37 |
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One thing we can learn from this is that teams that are in the 5 up group are often in the 5 down group the next year. Of the 56 up since 2003, 62.5% have missed the playoffs in the following season. Given that exactly 62.5% of the league misses the playoffs in any given year, that means that teams in the 5 up group have the exact same probability to make the playoffs as any other team in the league. Those teams also lose, on average, 2.37 more games in their next season.
Given that, teams like Cincinnati, the Giants, Detroit, San Francisco, Houston, and Denver could be in some trouble. If you’ve been reading the previous parts of this series, you would know that for various reasons, San Francisco is already in trouble, so this is more bad news for them. Houston won 10 games despite tons of injuries last year, while Denver upgraded their quarterback position this offseason, but the other 4 could easily miss the playoffs. The Giants and Bengals barely made it last year, San Francisco’s 2011 was aided by an unsustainable turnover differential and minimal injuries, and if Detroit were to improve on their 10 wins from last year, it would be the first time in at least a decade that a team improved their win total in 4 straight seasons.
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The other end of the spectrum is not as powerful. 39.6% of teams who are part of the 5 down make it back into the playoffs the following season, only slightly up from the 37.5% of teams overall who make the playoffs. Those teams also improve by 1.37 wins the following season. Teams like Indianapolis and Kansas City would appear to lack the talent to be part of that 39.6% and the Seahawks and Jets would appear to need a lot of things to go right to make the playoffs.
Chicago and Philadelphia could definitely have bounce back years though. Chicago added Brandon Marshall this offseason, got rid of Mike Martz, who was never a fit, and they were 7-3 last year before Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down. Philadelphia, meanwhile, had a high Pythagorean Expectation last year, were plagued by turnovers, and won their final 4 games. They definitely have the talent to make the playoffs.
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