Offense

It seems like forever ago that the Cardinals were in the Super Bowl, but it was really just February of 2009. It’s amazing what a difference Kurt Warner made. Since he retired after the 2009 season, their yearly sacks allowed have nearly doubled and their passing production has plummeted. Derek Anderson and Max Hall got the first crack at replacing the future Hall of Famer in 2010, but both struggled en route to a 5-11 finish.

In the 2011 offseason, they spent a fortune to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Philadelphia Eagles, but he missed 8 games with injuries last season and backup John Skelton arguably outplayed him. Now heading into 2012, Skelton and Kolb will battle for the starting job in a competition that may have no winner. The silver lining for the Cardinals is a talented young defense that played very well down the stretch en route to a 7-2 record in their last 9 games.

Quarterback

As I said, Skelton and Kolb will battle for the starting job in a competition that may have no winner.  The Cardinals are hoping that one quarterback who can definitively start all 16 games, if healthy, command the locker room, and lead their offense will emerge, but they may be disappointed. The pair will also compete well into the Preseason possibly, which could create a divided locker room, which is never a good thing. As the old saying goes, a team with two quarterbacks has none.

Record wise, Skelton appeared to be the better quarterback. Skelton went 6-2, while Kolb went 2-6. However, Skelton was more lucky than good in that his 8 games came right at the same time the defense was stepping up. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. The Cardinals went 7-2 in their final 9 games and Skelton started 8 of them. In Kolb’s only start in that time period, he won. So the two quarterbacks are much more even than their records would suggest.

Statistically speaking, Kolb was the superior quarterback. Kolb completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton did rush for 128 yards as opposed to 65 and took just 23 sacks as opposed to 30 for Kolb.

It will be a close competition in camp. Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt says he’ll pick the best man for the job, but admits that he hopes that quarterback is Kevin Kolb because of how much the team invested in him. I would guess that the week 1 starter will be Kolb, even if he’s not necessarily the superior quarterback in camp and the preseason, for that reason.

The Cardinals better hope he’s the answer. They can’t afford to have him struggle, get hurt, or get benched because, as I already said, a team with two quarterbacks has none. Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason for reasons other than injury rarely make the playoffs. The Broncos did it last year, but at 8-8 and the locker room was behind Tebow for the most part even when Orton was out there. Other than that, I can’t remember the last time that happened.

Grade: C

Offensive line

Whoever the quarterback is, they’ll have to get him time to throw and keep him upright. A bad quarterback behind a bad offensive line is a recipe for disaster. A bad offensive line is exactly what they had last year and the year before. In fact, since Kurt Warner retired, this offensive line seen their sacks allowed vastly increased. Last year, they allowed 54 sacks and the year before they allowed 50.

Their problems start outside at tackle. Left tackle Levi Brown has never lived up to being the 5^th overall pick of the 2007 NFL Draft (two picks before Adrian Peterson). He was actually cut this offseason, but immediately resigned to a more team friendly deal. He’ll make 9 million this season, but has no money guaranteed beyond this year so he can be cut if he continues to struggle, which history suggests will happen. Last season, he allowed 11 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties. He graded out above average as a run blocker on ProFootballFocus, but his -22.2 pass blocking rating was 2^nd worst at his position.

Opposite him, the Cardinals used two different players, Brandon Keith and Jeremy Bridges. That duo essentially split snaps on the season and combined to allow 12 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures, with 5 penalties. Bridges is currently penciled in as the starter, but they’ll be hoping that 4^th round pick rookie Bobby Massie can take over at some point, possibly even week 1. He is a mere 4^th round rookie, however, even if he was regarded as a steal at that point.

Inside, things get better. Right guard Adam Snyder was signed from San Francisco to a significant contract, even though he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst ranked guard with a -24.4. However, center Lyle Sendlein did grade out above average with a 3.6. He’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, however, and the 18 pressures allowed by him were 2^nd worst at his position (with 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit). The last thing either of their quarterbacks need is pressure right up the middle in his face.

Daryn Colledge played alright in his 1^st year after being exiled from Green Bay, but did grade out below average overall with a -3.8. Like Sendlein, he’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker. Those two continue Arizona’s trend of being unable to pass protect, which I don’t see getting much better, even if John Skelton, who took fewer sacks, ends up starting.

They used 4^th and 5th round picks on the position getting Senio Kelemete and Massie and unless either of those two can step up, win a starting job and play well, they will be one of the worst pass blocking offensive lines in the league. Kelemete is a guard who could end up starting if Snyder continues to struggle or has to move to right tackle. Kelemete can also play right tackle, as can Massie. The good news is that ProFootballFocus graded them as the 6^th best run blocking squad in the league.

Grade: C

Running backs

Their strong run blocking offensive line will help their running backs. At running back, they have two talented former high draft picks, but both are also often injured. Ryan Williams was their 2^nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but he has yet to play a snap in the NFL thanks to a nasty knee injury that cost him all of last year. The early prognosis on the injury was that he could miss until 2013, but he’s back and practicing now. It’s fair to question how explosive he’ll be. He also suffered a major injury in college at Virginia Tech, injuring his hamstring, which caused him to miss 4 games in 2010 and be limited in many others as he rushed for just 477 yards on 110 carries.

They’ll need him to be explosive in 2012 because, though Chris Wells played well, they were really lacking in depth at the position. Behind Wells, they had just Alfonso Smith, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Chester Taylor, a big part of the reason why they just carried the ball 389 times on the season, 4^th fewest in the league. A strong running game will take the pressure off the quarterback and play more to the strengths of the offensive line, which would help neutralize their two offensive weaknesses.

The problem, while Wells rushed for 1049 yards and 10 touchdowns on 245 carries, he had never been fully healthy in his career before last year and this offseason he had another knee surgery. It was said to be a minor procedure, but he has still yet to practice with the team as of this writing and admits he doesn’t know when he’ll be able to. Either the initial prognosis was wrong or the Cardinals are trying to be tight lipped and keep the severity of the injury a secret.

Grade: B

Receivers

The receivers are Arizona’s best group offensively. Larry Fitzgerald really needs no explanation. The amount he’s been able to produce in his career despite generally poor quarterback play is amazing. Last year, he caught 80 passes for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns. If he had Calvin Johnson’s quarterbacking, he might be able to produce statistically like Calvin Johnson did last year.

This year, he could be even more dangerous because defenses won’t be able to use as much bracket coverage on him as they did last year for the 1^st time since they traded Anquan Boldin. At Fitzgerald’s urging, the Cardinals drafted Michael Floyd with the 13^th overall pick to play opposite him. Floyd will only be a rookie and rookie receivers tend to struggle (don’t see Jones, Julio and Green, AJ), but he’ll still be an upgrade over the Early Doucet/Andre Roberts duo that started there last year and Floyd should start the season as a starter. Doucet and Roberts, meanwhile, will provide depth, where they fit much better. All of a sudden, the Cardinals have a very deep receiving corps.

The Cardinals have never used the tight end position much in the passing game, but this year could be different. The coaching staff has talked up their tight ends extensively this offseason and even Larry Fitzgerald called them the team’s most impressing group offensively. Even if that’s not necessarily true, they do have a good group at tight end. 2011 3^rd round pick Rob Housler has been talked up by the coaching staff and should start the season as the team’s #1 tight end in a more tight end focused offense. He has all the athletic tools with 4.4 speed at 6-5 248 so he could have a good year, but he’ll be limited by his quarterback and the options around him. He’s also not much of a blocker.

The Cardinals do have two talented blocking tight ends in veterans Todd Heap and Jeff King. They’ll likely duke it out for the right to come in on 2-tight end sets, which it sounds like they’ll be using more of this season. They don’t offer much in the passing game, however. They played most of the team’s snaps at tight end last year, but combined for just 51 catches for 554 yards and 4 touchdowns. At age 32 and 29 respectively, they won’t get better this season.

As talented as their receiving corps is, they will be underutilized unless they can get some sort of stability at quarterback. I don’t expect that Kevin Kolb or John Skelton will be able to do that. They would be able to mask their deficiencies in the passing game and play better to the strength of their offensive line if they could run more, but given the question injuries they have at running back, I don’t see that happening. Besides, Ken Whisenhunt has never been a run heavy Head Coach. I think they’ll struggle offensively once again this season.

Grade: A-

Defense

As I’ve mentioned before, the reason for their strong finish to last season was the play of their defense. In their first 7 games, they allowed 26.1 points per game, as opposed to 18.3 points per game allowed in their final 9 games. Young players like Daryl Washington, Patrick Peterson, Sam Acho, and O’Brien Schofield stepped up big time late last season, to compliment studs already in place on their defense like Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell, and Adrian Wilson.

Defensive line

The defensive line is easily the most talented group on the defense and arguably the most talented bunch on the team. Divisional rival San Francisco has a hell of a bookend pair at defensive end on their 3 man line, but the Cardinals’ duo isn’t too shabby either. Whereas Justin Smith and Ray McDonald ranked 1^st and 3^rd respectively at the position on ProFootballFocus, Campbell and Dockett ranked 2^nd and 8^th respectively.

They were also the only two 3-4 defensive ends in the league to play over 1000 snaps, a testament to their incredible stamina. Both are still relatively young, but proven and also have been incredibly durable in their careers. Not like they needed a ton of it, but they do have solid depth at the position. The veteran Vonnie Holliday only played 159 snaps, but finished with a 6.6 rating. He’s 37 in December, however, so he’s no sure thing going forward.

The one thing stopping this defensive line from going from great to elite is the nose tackle position. The Cardinals thought they filled the void there when they drafted Dan Williams in the 1^st round in 2010, but he’s struggled with weight and durability issues in his 1^st two years in the league. He graded out positively last year, but only played 244 snaps, which wasn’t even the most on his own team at the position.

6^th round rookie David Carter ended up being a hidden gem of their 2011 draft class. He led the team in snaps played at the position with 249 and graded out with a solid 2.0 rating, which is impressive considering where he was drafted in the previous spring. He split time with Nick Eason, who was awful. Eason, who also played defensive end for them, graded out with a -13.7 rating across the two positions despite only playing 257 snaps total.

If Williams can get it going, Carter can be solid depth across all 3 positions, which will make this defensive line one of the best in the league. If he can’t, however, they’ll be in some trouble up the middle because at 300 pounds, Carter is too small to be a true nose tackle and Eason will have to play more than they should be comfortable with. In his 3^rd year in the league, Williams has everything to prove because they could spend an early draft pick on the position again in 2013 if Williams doesn’t show any signs of life.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Cardinals have a trio of young players who all played very well last season, especially late. Daryl Washington and O’Brien Schofield were 2^nd and 4^th round picks respectively in the 2010 NFL Draft, while Acho went in the 4^th last year. Daryl Washington graded out 10^th at his position with a 17.6 rating. He was above average in all areas of the game, playing solid in coverage and even chipping in 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures on 141 pass rushes (21.3%).

His weakest area was the run, which makes sense since he’s played his career in the low 230s, high 220s, but he made an effort to get in the 240s this offseason to add more power. This could allow him to take the next step as a football player, but, while he says he’s moving just as well, there’s always a risk with weight gains like that.

Acho and Schofield actually graded out negatively on ProFootballFocus, with a -3.7 and -6.2 respectively. However, that’s mostly due to their struggles against the run and there’s no denying that their defense was better once they were inserted into the starting lineup. Both are good pass rushers, with Acho recording 6 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures on 211 pass rushes (8.5%) and Schofield recording 5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures on 181 pass rushes (7.7%). Both will be starters this year and their defense was better with them as starters last year. They could both post strong seasons.

The veteran Clark Haggans, meanwhile, actually led the position in snaps played with 885 before losing his starting job late in the season. He was resigned on a one year deal, but at 35, he’s nothing more than a backup or maybe rotational player, which is the way it should be. He had 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures on 339 pass rushes (10.3%) and ended up with a -6.4 rating, 2^nd worst at the position. Good pass rush production from the outside linebacker position, as well as strong play from their defensive line, contributed big time to the 42 sacks they had last year, among the best in the league. They could approach that number again this season.

The weak link of the starting 4 at linebacker is Paris Lenon, who plays inside next to Washington. I’ve been calling him a mediocre veteran who needs to be replaced on several teams for seemingly 5 years now. He’s heading into his age 35 season, but he keeps on starting. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst middle linebacker in the league with a -15.8 rating last year.

The Cardinals are hoping either Stewart Bradley or Quan Sturdivant can challenge him for the starting job. However, Bradley was a bust of their free agency class last offseason as he failed to shake the injuries that plagued him in Philadelphia, while Sturdivant was just a 6^th round pick last year. It seems unlikely that either of them can emerge as a solid starter so this probably will be a spot they’ll have to address next offseason, likely through the draft. Still, all in all, this is a solid linebacking group and part of a good front 7.

Grade: B

Secondary

The secondary was probably the Cardinals’ weakest group last year defensively. Yes, they did rank tied for 10^th against the pass last year with 6.9 YPA, but strong play from the front 7 had a lot to do with that. All of their cornerbacks graded out negatively against the pass, including rookie Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson.

Peterson made the Pro Bowl on the strength of 4 special teams touchdowns, but his -12.6 rating was actually 8^th worst at his position. He allowed 67 completions on 113 attempts (59.7%), 869 yards (7.7 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 8 deflections, and 10 penalties. However, rookie cornerbacks do tend to struggle. Now in his 2^nd year, I expect him to have a breakout year. He’s too talented not to.

Opposite him, the Cardinals are essentially having a four way battle for the #2 cornerback job. Richard Marshall, who was 2^nd on the team in snaps played at the position last year with 849, left for Miami this offseason, but AJ Jefferson, who was 3^rd on the team with 817, is still around. He’ll compete with Greg Toler, a former starter who missed all of last season with an ACL injury, William Gay, a free agent acquisition from Pittsburgh, and 3^rd round rookie Jamell Fleming for the right to start opposite Peterson.

Those 4 cornerbacks will line up 2-5 on the depth chart in some order, most likely. They have plenty of depth there, but I don’t know if there’s a solid starter in that bunch. Jefferson graded out with a -3.1 rating last season, while Toler graded out with a -2.8 as a starter in 2010 and that was before a major knee injury. Meanwhile, Fleming was just a 3^rd round pick in April.

Gay played solid in Pittsburgh last year with a 0.0 rating exactly and he’s familiar with the scheme as defensive coordinator Ray Horton used to be a defensive backs coach in Pittsburgh under defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, so there are a lot of similarities. However, the Cardinals used a similar logic with Bryant McFadden a couple offseasons ago and he turned out to be a free agent bust once he no longer had Pittsburgh’s awesome front 7 in front of him. Jefferson is currently penciled in as the starter as he’s technically an incumbent, with Gay in the slot, but things are wide open after Peterson at cornerback.

Adrian Wilson, their starting strong safety, is easily their most talented defensive back. His 16.1 rating was 2^nd highest at his position and he was actually ranked as the league’s top run stuffing and pass defending safety, though his grade was knocked down overall for 6 penalties. Opposite him, Kerry Rhodes is a marginal starter, but he missed 9 games because of foot and ankle problems. Rashad Johnson played pretty poorly in his absence, so the Cardinals signed veteran James Sanders as insurance this offseason. However, Sanders’ -6.9 rating last year was worse than Johnson’s -2.4 in a similar amount of snaps.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

It’s a mixed bag with Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Yes, he made the Super Bowl just over 3 years ago, but he has yet to post a winning record in the 2 seasons since Kurt Warner retired and he failed massively thus far with the Kevin Kolb experiment. He has a 39-39 record in his career with the Arizona Cardinals and another losing season could put him on the hot seat.

Grade: B

Overall

Given the way they finished last year, you might think I’ll be picking the Cardinals to improve on their 8-8 record from last year. However, I won’t for two main reasons. One is obviously the quarterback position. I don’t think there’s a legitimate starting quarterback on the roster and that they’ll switch quarterbacks at least once, which could create a divided locker room. As I said earlier, it’s only special, rare circumstances when a team makes the playoffs after switching quarterbacks midseason for reasons other than injuries.

The 2^nd reason is that they weren’t actually as good as their 8-8 record suggested last year. They finished with a -36 points differential, which suggests that they actually played as well as a 6-10 team last year. They went 4-0 in overtime games last year. If that record had been 2-2 last year, this would have been a 6-10 team. They finished 8-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and didn’t win once more by than 7 points. They likely won’t have as much luck as last year.

Seattle, who finished 7-9 behind them, actually scored more points and allowed fewer points last year. Seattle also allowed fewer rushing yards and passing yards, while rushing for more yards last year. Only Arizona’s passing yards were higher last year and Seattle upgraded the quarterback position this year and can’t possibly have worse health on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. In fact, I think the only groups where Arizona has the advantage over Seattle is at wide receiver and on the defensive line. Seattle’s quarterbacks, running backs, offensive line, secondary, and Head Coach are all better, while the linebackers are essentially a wash.

Fortunately for the Cardinals, they do have an easy divisional schedule. They’ll win at least one against St. Louis and should win at least one other game in the division. Outside of the division, they host Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Detroit, and Chicago. They face 3 teams that could easily make the playoffs and another one in Buffalo that could surprise. Miami is the only sure thing in that bunch so they could end up with a 2-3 record in those 5 games. They go to New England, Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, and the Jets. New England, Green Bay, and Atlanta are almost sure losses, while the Jets will be very, very tough. 4 or 5 wins seems like where they’ll end up this season. It’s where they could have easily ended up last year without a true quarterback controversy.

Update: Subtracting a win from their total. John Skelton and Kevin Kolb have both looked even worse than expected this preseason, while their offensive line has actually managed to get worse with the loss of Levi Brown at left tackle.

Projection: 3-13 4th in NFC West

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