Offense

In a league full of parity, the Steelers are one of the few teams that have managed to remain good every season. Since drafting Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have won at least 8 games in all 8 seasons, at least 10 games in 6 seasons and at least 12 games in 4 seasons, including a 12-4 record last year. Since 2004, they have an 89-39 record, 2^nd to only the Patriots over that time period.

And it’s not all about Ben Roethlisberger. Sure, Roethlisberger is one of the game’s elite quarterbacks, but the Steelers have had one of the three best defenses, in terms of points per game allowed, 6 times since 2004. Not so coincidentally, those were the same 6 seasons they had 10+ wins. Last year was no different as they had the league’s best scoring defense (14.2 points per game) and the league’s best yardage defense (4348 yards). Even more amazing is that they did this despite a mere 15 takeaways, actually fewest in the league. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

The Steelers have a reputation for being old, but they do have a lot of young talent thanks to consistently strong drafting over the past few years. Yes, veterans like Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Brett Keisel, etc, are over the hill in football years, but they also have talented young players like Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons. Last year’s draft looks equally strong. On paper, it appears they got 2 starting offensive linemen in David DeCastro and Mike Adams in the first two rounds and 3^rd and 4^th round picks Sean Spence and Alameda Ta’amu could have immediate impacts defensively as rookies.

The two offensive linemen were significant because Ben Roethlisberger has taken 314 sacks in his 8 year career, despite being very mobile and having strong pocket awareness. With DeCastro and Adams adding to an already improving offensive line with 2011 2^nd round pick Marcus Gilbert and 2010 1^st round pick Maurkice Pouncey, Big Ben might have the most talented offensive line he’s ever had in front of him. With what should be yet another strong defensive group, the Steelers look poised to have another great season in a weak AFC.

Quarterback

Only 6 current NFL quarterbacks have won Super Bowls as starters: Tom Brady (3), Eli Manning (2), Ben Roethlisberger (2), Peyton Manning (1), Drew Brees (1), and Aaron Rodgers (1). Not so coincidentally those might be the top 6 quarterbacks in the NFL, in any order. However, Roethlisberger is often mentioned close to the bottom of that 6 because of how good Pittsburgh’s defense has always been. Nonetheless, he is one of the game’s best quarterbacks.

He ranks 4^th all-time in regular season winning percentage, .709 (80-33), behind only Tom Brady, Roger Staubach, and Joe Montana. He also has a 10-4 postseason record. At only 30 years of age, he ranks 4^th among active quarterbacks in regular season wins behind only Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees (assuming you don’t count Kerry Collins and Donovan McNabb as active). He has completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA and 165 touchdowns to 100 interceptions. Possibly most impressive is how he’s been able to do this despite poor offensive line play in front of him.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

I’ve already mentioned the additions of David DeCastro and Mike Adams through the draft. They’ll likely start at right guard and left tackle respectively. DeCastro is arguably the top interior line prospect of the last decade. He fell to the Steelers at 24 because he doesn’t play a position with high positional value, but he should be one of the best players at his position from the word go and remain as such for the next decade.

Meanwhile, Adams has elite talent (he was the #2 offensive tackle of his recruiting class between Tyron Smith and Matt Kalil, two top-10 picks), but fell to the Steelers in the 2^nd round for character reasons. He was a disappointment in his time at Ohio State, was oft suspended, and failed a drug test at The Combine, where he reportedly didn’t interview well. The Steelers rarely draft guys with character issues so maybe they know something we don’t.

Adams will start opposite Marcus Gilbert, whether that be at left tackle or right tackle. He is currently penciled in as the left tackle because that’s his natural spot and Gilbert played well at right tackle. Gilbert is the more experienced one so they may swap sides in Training Camp if the Steelers feel it necessary.

Gilbert was a 2^nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and played alright in 14 starts at right tackle last year. He allowed 8 sacks and was below average on ProFootballFocus as a run blocker, but he graded out above average as a pass blocker. This is because the mere 2 quarterback hits and 11 quarterback pressures he allowed are a more accurate representation of how he protected Ben Roethlisberger. He also committed 6 penalties. He had a moderate -4.2 rating overall and could be better in his 2^nd season.

If either one of those players struggle, the Steelers may call up Max Starks. Starks is an experienced player who knows the system. He started 12 games for them at left tackle last year after the Steelers signed him in October. He was previously unsigned because of weight and durability questions, but he played pretty well. He had a -2.2 rating with 5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures allowed. He was penalized 5 times. He’s once again unsigned because he tore his ACL in January, but the Steelers are monitoring his progress closely and may view him as an insurance option.

Another insurance option could be Willie Colon. Colon has experience at right tackle, but will play left guard this season. With a 25.1 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd best offensive tackle in 2009. However, he has only played 1 game over the last 2 seasons thanks to various injuries. If he gets hurt again, the Steelers will turn to Ramon Foster. Foster actually led the team in snaps played on the offensive line with 1005 snaps played and had an average 0.6 rating. He’s not a bad insurance option.

Meanwhile, center Maurkice Pouncey is an overrated player who has made Pro Bowls in each of his 1^st two seasons in the league. That being said, he’s still a solid starter who has posted solid ratings (-4.2 and -1.2 respectively) in 2010 and 2011. With the additions of DeCastro and Adams, and the return of Colon, the Steelers should be much improved up front. They are only returning 2 offensive linemen from a miserable offensive line in 2011 and those two, Pouncey and Gilbert, are young players who upside who played pretty well last year.

Bums like Chris Kemoeatu (-14.1), Doug Legursky (-11.5), Jonathan Scott (-18.3), and Trai Essex (-11.9) are either not on the team anymore or buried on the depth chart. This could easily be the best offensive line they’ve ever had in front of Roethlisberger. For a quarterback who is sacked and injured as often as Roethlisberger, that has to be music to his ears. Unlike in previous years, he might be able to make it through the season without getting hurt, missing time or being limited, and he should have more time in the pocket, should he choose to use it.

Grade: B

Running Backs

An improved offensive line will also help their running game. Yes, the Steelers have lost Rashard Mendenhall to a torn ACL, but they may have an even better running back waiting in the wings in Isaac Redman. Mendenhall is an overrated player so his torn ACL may be a blessing in disguise for them. Mendenhall has a career 4.1 YPC, while Redman has an average of 4.5 YPC.

With Mendenhall out last year for most of week 17 and all of their playoff loss to the Broncos, Redman had 92 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and 121 yards on 17 carries. Those 121 yards would have been the 2^nd most yards Mendenhall had all season and the 7.1 YPC he averaged in that game would have been Mendenhall’s highest total since week 3 of the 2010 season. On top of that, the 213 combined yards rushing he had in those 2 games would have been the most productive back-to-back two game stretch since weeks 3-4 of 2010 for Mendenhall.

Redman is also the more well rounded back. Despite less playing time, he matched the 18 catches that Mendenhall had in 2011. He also was more trusted by the coaching staff to pass protect, despite his backup status, with 94 pass protection snaps to 42 for Mendenhall. As you can expect, ProFootballFocus did grade him as the superior pass protector.

They also graded him as the superior runner and player overall (playoffs included), despite his backup status and the fact that he played fewer snaps. This makes sense as Redman averaged 3.3 yards after contact as opposed to 2.5 for Mendenhall, averaged 4.7 YPC to 4.1 YPC, and broke 25 tackles on 127 carries (19.7%) as opposed to 30 broken tackles on 228 carries (13.2%) for Mendenhall.

The Steelers were already starting to take notice of Redman’s talent last year, giving him 91 carries to Mendenhall’s 220 even before week 17. Redman also played 318 snaps to Mendenhall’s 457, as he played more as a blocker and receiver out of the backfield (which goes back to my point that Redman is more well rounded).

Mendenhall is expected to miss at least the first 6 games of the season as he’s expected to start the season on the PUP, but Redman is the more talented back and might not give Mendenhall, a free agent after the season, his starting job back even when Mendenhall returns from injury. There’s serious fantasy upside with Redman and major upside for the Steelers’ running game with a more talented back behind a better offensive line. Depth is the one major issue as they currently only have Jonathan Dwyer, John Clay, and Chris Rainey behind Redman, three unproven players. However, when Mendenhall returns, he’ll provide adequate depth.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Steelers also have a lot of talent at wide receiver and, unlike at running back, that is currently obvious to anyone who knows anything about football. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown both had 1000 yard seasons last year and both are still young, a testament to how well the Steelers have drafted in the past few years. Contrary to popular belief, they have plenty of young talent.

Wallace, a 2009 3^rd round pick, caught 72 passes for 1193 yards and 8 touchdowns last year, his 2^nd straight 1000 yard season. He’s definitely a proven player, but the one concern with him is that he holds out deep into Training Camp and gets out of shape. He has yet to sign his restricted free agent tender as of this writing and doesn’t appear to have any plans to do so.

Brown, meanwhile, caught 69 passes for 1108 yards and 2 touchdowns last year. The 2010 6^th round pick remains a one year wonder, but my only concern with him is the mere 2 touchdowns he had last year. That number should increase in 2012 as the combo of Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Jerricho Cotchery/Mewelde Moore/David Johnson/Weslye Saunders won’t vulture 9 touchdowns again.

The Steelers also possess solid depth behind the starters. Hines Ward is gone, but he was a shadow of his former self last year before retiring this offseason. Many predicted Emmanuel Sanders to have the kind of breakout year that Brown did in 2011, before Brown had an amazing Preseason. Sanders was a 3^rd round pick the same year Brown was a 6^th round pick, 2010, and he is a talented player who has had issues with injuries. If he can stay healthy, he could have a career high across the board as the Steelers’ primary slot receiver. His current career highs are 28 catches for 376 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2010. He also caught 22 passes for 288 yards and 2 scores last year.

Behind their 3 young receivers is the veteran Jerricho Cotchery. Cotchery caught 82 passes for 1130 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2007 for the Jets and was a starter as recently as 2009. He’s only 30 and caught 16 passes for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns in a situational role last year. He seems fine with a limited role, despite his past success, and is one of the better #4 receivers in the league.

The Steelers also have a solid pass catching tight end in Heath Miller. Miller is never mentioned among the best at his position, but he’s certainly one of the most consistent. He’s caught at least 42 passes for 512 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of the last 5 years, maxing out with 76 catches for 789 yards and 6 scores in 2009. He’s also one of the league’s best blockers and can play on every down. In fact, only Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jason Witten played more snaps than Miller did in the regular season last year, with 1032 and his all around game got him ranked 5^th among tight ends on ProFootballFocus with a 13.0 rating, behind Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, and Aaron Hernandez.

New offensive coordinator Todd Haley likes to use a lot of two tight end sets so he brought over his boy toy Leonard Pope from Kansas City. Haley and Pope worked together in Arizona and Kansas City before Pittsburgh so they’re obviously very comfortable with each other. Pope is a solid blocker who doesn’t offer much as a receiver.

Still, overall, the Steelers have an elite quarterback throwing to an incredibly talented group of receivers and working behind arguably the best offensive line of his career. Isaac Redman has breakout star written all over him behind an improved run blocking offensive line so the Steelers look to have one of the best and most well balanced offenses in the league. They averaged a mere 20.3 points per game last year, 21^st in the league, but if you don’t include the 4 games that Roethlisberger was out or limited with an ankle injury, they averaged 22.3 points per game, which would have ranked 17^th. They should be improved on even that this year and could be a top-15 or even top-10 offense. They certainly have the talent.  That will be an excellent compliment for their amazing defense. They look poised to improve on the +98 points differential they had in 2012, good for 7^th in the league.

Grade: A-

Defense

As I’ve already mentioned, the Steelers have ranked in the top 3 in fewest points allowed 6 times in the past 8 years. That’s insane. Dick LeBeau and company really know how to field an awesome defense. After ranking 1^st in the league last year in both points and yards, they look poised to have a 7^th in 9 years in 2012, especially since they accomplished that last year despite the fewest turnovers in the league and despite several key injuries (I’ll get into those later).

Defensive Line

Casey Hampton is a key injury, but he wasn’t what I was referring to. Hampton got hurt late in the season, tearing his ACL in their playoff loss to the Steelers. He looks poised to start the year on the PUP and miss at least 6 games. He’s a solid player, but his absence isn’t enough for me not to consider them a top-3 defense. He only played 450 snaps last year as the soon to be 35 year old is really just a situational run stopper at this point in his career. He had a 4.5 rating last year.

Top backup Steve McClendon, who actually had a higher rating in less playing time (7.8), will split time with 4^th round rookie Alameda Ta’amu. Ta’amu is more of a true nose tackle like Hampton at 350 pounds, while the 280 pound McClendon is a situational player. They should be able to hold down the fort just fine. They’re probably the future at the position as well.

Outside at defensive end in their 3-4, the Steelers used a rotation of 3 guys in 2011, with Aaron Smith missing most of the year with injuries. Those players were Ziggy Hood, Brett Keisel, and Cameron Heyward. Smith was cut this offseason, but they won’t miss him much. Injuries limited him to just 175 snaps in 2012. Keisel was easily the best of the bunch in 2011. In fact, he was one of the best in all of the league with a 26.8 rating, good for 5^th in the league.

That’s why Keisel was retained heading into his age 34 season and not part of a veteran purge. Still, as he’s an aging veteran, Keisel should see less playing time in 2012, in favor of more playing time for 2011 1^st round pick Cameron Heyward. Heyward was pretty nondescript in limited playing time in 2011, but he has plenty of upside. The 3^rd member of the group was Ziggy Hood. Hood played the most out of the 3 with 879 snaps, but that might not be the case in 2012 if he continues to play like he did in 2011.

Hood, a 2009 1^st round pick, was the worst in the league at his position with a -21.4 rating. He was especially bad as a pass rusher, managing just 1 sack, 4 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures on 522 pass rush snaps, for a pathetic 2.9% rate. However, Hood spent the offseason getting into shape, losing 18 pounds of fat, gaining 20 pounds of muscle and dropping his body fat from 24% to 18%. That could translate to him having a breakout season. At the same time, it wouldn’t shock me if he also ceded some playing time to Heyward. With Keisel unlikely to remain with the team after the season, this is a make or break team for Hood because the Steelers could use another early pick on a defensive end in the 2013 draft and make Hood a rotational player if he doesn’t prove himself heading into his 5^th NFL season.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The linebacking corps were where the major injuries were last season. Normally, they have an elite group there, but last year that was not the case. James Harrison missed 5 games with injury, LaMarr Woodley missed 6 entire games and most of another, and James Farrior missed 2 games. With their two starting rush linebackers missing large parts of the season, stud middle linebacker Lawrence Timmons had to play out of position outside and that threw him off. With Timmons playing a lot outside and Farrior missing time, Larry Foote had to play more than they would have liked, playing 437 snaps at middle linebacker. Top reserve Jason Worilds also had to play more than they would have liked.

Timmons was the NFL’s best middle linebacker in 2010 according to ProFootballFocus, with a 31.6 rating, but struggled in 2011 with a -4.2 rating overall. That was largely because of a -9.4 rating as a pass rusher. He really struggled to get to the quarterback from the outside. As a middle linebacker, he actually had a 3.8 rating when he did play there. He should continue to be one of the best middle linebackers in the league in 2012 and beyond.

LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison are also normally among the best at their positions. In 2011, they ranked 2^nd and 5^th respectively with a 41.8 rating and a 29.8 rating respectively. Both were slowed by injuries, but still played pretty well with a 27.8 rating and a 10.2 rating respectively. Woodley should bounce back in 2011, but the concern with Harrison is that he’s 34. He’s an amazing football player and athlete so I’ll believe he’ll continue to beat the odds and age until he proves he can’t.

Their top reserve at this position is Jason Worilds. The 2010 2^nd round pick played a lot in the absence of Woodley and Harrison and played well. He had 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 208 pass rush snaps (14.4%). If Harrison starts to decline, he could see an increase in snaps. They should feel confident in him.

Their 4^th starting linebacker is Larry Foote. Foote will start in place of James Farrior, a 37 year old veteran cut by the Steelers this offseason. Farrior was a shell of his former self last year anyway with a -6.5 rating. Foote wasn’t much better though. The 32 year old had a -6.0 rating last year and the veteran probably won’t be any better this season. 3^rd round rookie Sean Spence could come in on passing downs for Foote and maybe even a bigger role as the season goes on if Foote struggles. Still, with Woodley, Harrison, and Timmons, this is one of the league’s best linebacking corps.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

The Steelers’ had the league’s best pass defense last year, both in terms of yards (2751) and YPA (5.6). They, of course, did this in spite of minimal takeaways, but also in spite of an uncharacteristic 35 sacks. They should have more this season and could rank near the top against the pass again, in spite of what the 300 yards they allowed to Tim Tebow in the playoffs would suggest (their only 300 yard game allowed all season).

Ike Taylor was awful in that playoff loss to Denver, surrendering 204 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts and 4 completions. He was also penalized twice in that game. However, he was much better in the regular season. He had the league’s 3^rd best QB rating allowed among cornerbacks who played 75% of their team’s snaps, a 54.8 rating. He allowed just 40 completions on 96 attempts (41.7%) for 455 yards (4.7 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The only problem was his 9 penalties.

Troy Polamalu was ProFootballFocus’ #1 safety in 2011 with a 19.2 rating. He really is the key to their defense. They’re noticeably worse when he’s not out there. Next to him is Ryan Clark. Clark is another fine safety and he was missed in their loss to Denver as he had to sit out because of a blood disorder that makes it unsafe for him to play at high altitudes. The only issue with these two players is age as they are heading into their age 31 and 33 seasons respectively. However, Polamalu is still young enough that it wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect another excellent season from him and that’s really the key.

The 4^th member of their starting defensive backs is still yet to be determined, that being their #2 cornerback opposite Taylor. 3 players, Keenan Lewis, Curtis Brown, and Cortez Allen are competing for that spot with William Gay signing in Arizona. Gay was a decent player, but not irreplaceable. Lewis, a 2009 3^rd round pick, is currently the favorite and he’s reportedly having a strong offseason. Brown and Allen were 3^rd and 4^th round picks respectively in the 2011 NFL Draft and are not as experienced as Lewis, who was their #3 cornerback last year. He played 404 snaps last year and was alright so he could be a solid starter next year, especially with an improved front 7. Brown and Allen will be left as depth cornerbacks and I think you can do a lot worse than those two.

All in all, I think the Steelers are poised to have another top-3 scoring defense. They had the league’s best scoring defense last year and it’s scary to think how much better they could have been had they gotten just a few more than the 15 takeaways they had last year and if they had everyone was healthy. Their defense could resemble that this year. Takeaways and giveaways are fairly unpredictable on a yearly basis and the last 38 teams with fewer than 20 had 7.53 more takeaways the next season (and won 1.41 more games).

Given how talented this defense is, I wouldn’t be surprised if they exceeded even that and got around 30 takeaways. They had 35 in 2010. Their age is overstated. Yes, they lost veterans like James Farrior, Aaron Smith, and William Gay, but none of them had much of a positive impact last year. Yes, Casey Hampton could miss time with injury, but the same thing goes for him. Yes, Brett Keisel and James Harrison are getting up there in age, but they’re also coming off amazing seasons so they should be able to keep it up. Yes, Polamalu and Clark are over the hill in football years, but they’re not that old yet, especially not Polamalu, the more important one. They have plenty of young talent and plenty of talent overall defensively.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

It’s possible to be a lifelong Steelers fan 40 years or younger and not know what’s it’s like to have their team’s Head Coach on the hot seat. Chuck Noll coached successfully from 1969 to 1991, going 193-148 and winning 4 Super Bowls and when he retired, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Kansas City by the name of Bill Cowher. Cowher coached from 1992 to 2006, going 149-90 and winning a Super Bowl and when he retired in 2006, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Minnesota by the name of Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has gone 55-25 since and won the organization’s 6^th Super Bowl title (most all time).

It’s tough to compare anyone to Cowher and Noll, but Tomlin can be mentioned in the same sentence with those two in a favorable way. He’s one of the league’s premier Head Coaches and possibly the most exciting part for Steelers fans is that he only just turned 40. It could be another decade plus before the Steelers have to worry about the Head Coaching position. On top of that, they also have one of the league’s best coordinators in Dick LeBeau, who coordinates the defense. The 74 year old has been there since 2004 and has 2 Super Bowl rings in that time.

Grade: A

Overall

The Steelers keep cranking out good draft after good draft and even though they have some aging players, they have plenty of talented young players to make up for it. Offensively, they have an elite quarterback throwing to a great group of receivers, playing behind arguably the best offensive line of his career and a budding star at running back set to run behind an improved run blocking offensive line. Defensively, they are coming off a season in which they led the league in fewest points per game allowed, despite a mere 15 takeaways and injuries to key players.

They are one of the league’s most consistent franchises and still a model to young teams around the league. They have six 10+ win seasons in 8 years and four 12+ win seasons in that same time period. In a weak AFC, they seem poised to have another very strong season. Baltimore took some hits this offseason so while the Steelers didn’t win the division last year, the 12 wins they had last year should win the division this year and should be replicable.

Both Baltimore and Cincinnati could be inferior this season and Cleveland still isn’t very good so they could have another 4-2 or better record in the division. 5-1 is also a possibility. Outside the division, they host the Jets, Eagles, Redskins, Chiefs, and Chargers. The Eagles could be tough, but they should go 4-1 in those games since they’re all at home. They then go to Denver, Oakland, Tennessee, the Giants, and Dallas. That seems like about 4-1 or so. They’re better than all of those teams on paper I think, but you never know what can happen, especially when you go on the road. 12-4 seems right.

Update: Moving Pittsburgh down just a game. David DeCastro probably won’t play this season after tearing his MCL and left tackle Mike Adams has really struggled this preseason. Isaac Redman is also hurt and Rashard Mendenhall still will miss at least 3-4 games. Mike Wallace held out throughout most of the offseason and on the defensive side of the ball, Jason Worilds, James Harrison, and Brett Kiesel are all dealing with injuries. I still like them, but I’m moving them down.

Projection: 11-5 1^st in AFC North

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