Offense

Remember when Mike Shanahan won 2 Super Bowls? Good times. The Redskins hired him thinking they were getting a future Hall of Fame Head Coach who would bring them out of mediocrity and into the playoffs. That hasn’t happened. In 2 seasons, Shanahan has gone 11-21. In his 1^st year in 2010, he traded for Donovan McNabb, who didn’t even finish the year before being benched. In his 2^nd year, last year, he tried to coach up two mediocre quarterbacks, Rex Grossman and John Beck and neither of those guys panned out.

Heading into his 3^rd season as Head Coach, Mike Shanahan had to be feeling his seat getting hot. In response to that, the Redskins made one of the boldest draft day trades ever, giving up their 1^st round pick in 2013, their 1^st round pick in 2014, and their 2^nd round pick in 2012 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2 to draft Robert Griffin out of Baylor.

They certainly gave up a lot to get him. In fact, it was the 1^st draft day trade involving a team giving up three 1^st rounders in NFL history. However, they could be getting a legitimate franchise quarterback and at a team friendly salary. How many 1^st rounders would you give up for Cam Newton at his current salary? 3? 4? Is there even a price he could be had for? Griffin is more mature as a thrower than Newton was at this time last year and could end up being the better quarterback. If that happens, the Redskins could be picking in the 20s in 2013 and 2014 so it won’t matter so much that they don’t have picks. And if he flops…well Mike Shanahan would have been fired anyway. Some sportsbooks, like the ones that can be found at this sportsbook review, were even giving odds that Shanahan would be fired after last season. He had to do something.

The Redskins haven’t had a legitimate franchise quarterback in forever. They haven’t won more than 10 games since 1991. That’s why they felt like they had to shoot for the stars and I think they’ll be rewarded with Griffin. This team managed 5 wins last year despite terrible quarterback play. They have a solid defense, added some more pieces this offseason, and now they have their quarterback. Robert Griffin is definitely stepping into a better situation than Andrew Luck or Cam Newton. It reminds me more like what Andy Dalton stepped into last year or Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan in 2008, etc. Those 3 guys all made the playoffs as rookies.

Could the same thing happen for Griffin this year? I think it could. One team has gone from 5 or fewer wins one year to the playoffs the next every season since 2003. The teams that would qualify in 2012: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Jacksonville. I think Washington has the best chance of that bunch. They had 35 turnovers last year and since 2002, 42 teams have had 35+ turnovers. Those teams had an average of 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and won 1.61 more games. Griffin could definitely be the next in that line of rookie quarterbacks making the playoffs.

Quarterbacks

I’ve already mentioned Griffin at length. They essentially made him their starting quarterback before they even drafted him. He’ll be out there week 1 as the Redskins travel to New Orleans (rough welcome). He was the Heisman winner last year and arguably had a better season last year than #1 pick Andrew Luck ever had (Luck had 2 very good years, did it with less supporting talent, and ran more of the offense, which is why he went #1 overall). On top of that, he’s a perfect fit for Mike Shanahan’s system. His ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally is Elway-esque (not saying he’s that good). He’ll do just fine as a rookie.

Grade: B

Running backs

As anyone who reads my fantasy football stuff knows, I have no clue what Mike Shanahan is planning on doing with his running backs. He changes his mind with backs so much. Last year, Tim Hightower started out the year as the lead back, lost his job to Ryan Torain, got hurt, Torain took over, then he lost his job to Roy Helu, who briefly lost his job to Ryan Torain, before getting it back, getting hurt, losing his job to Evan Royster, who then split carries with Helu in the finale once he returned.

Earlier this offseason, it looked like it would be Helu and Royster getting some sort of split of the carries with Torain and Hightower unsigned. However, then they signed Hightower and there are varying reporting saying everything from Hightower will be the lead back week 1 to Hightower might not be healthy by Training Camp. On top of all this, they used a 6^th round pick on Alfred Morris, who Shanahan says is a perfect fit for his system. He might have just been a 6^th round pick, but Helu and Royster were 4^th and 6^th round picks in 2011 and they had impacts as a rookie.

Helu and Royster would both seem to be more talented running backs than Hightower. Helu rushed for 640 yards and 2 touchdowns on 151 carries (4.2 YPC) and caught 49 passes, while Royster rushed for 328 yards on 56 carries (5.9 YPC) and caught 9 passes. Helu was also the 4^th best pass blocking back in the league, according to ProFootballFocus, last season. Hightower, meanwhile, rushed for 321 yards and a touchdown on 84 carries (3.8 YPC) and 10 catches. However, Shanahan seems to have a thing for Hightower for whatever reason.

I expect all 4 backs and maybe even a back I haven’t mentioned to get some action this season for the Redskins and it’ll be unpredictable. All this means it’ll be a nightmare for fantasy football players, but Mike Shanahan teams always run the ball fairly well overall. Robert Griffin’s rushing abilities will help the running game for two reasons. Obviously, he’ll add yards, but he’ll also open things up for the backs the way Michael Vick does for LeSean McCoy, Vince Young did for Chris Johnson, and Tim Tebow did for Willis McGahee.

Grade: B-

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Wide Receivers

The Redskins made two offseason additions at wide receiver, with the most prominent one being Pierre Garcon. They gave Garcon #1 wide receiver money, giving him 42.5 million over 5 years, even though he was always the #2 or #3 receiver in Indianapolis. He’s also never gone over 1000 yards, though the 70 catches for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns he managed last year with Curtis Painter/Dan Orlovsky were impressive. If he had a legitimate quarterback, he could have easily had 80+ catches for 1100+ yards last year and he’s only 26 in August. That being said, receivers have a poor history when changing teams so I have some doubts that he’ll live up to his contract.

Josh Morgan was the other wide receiver addition. He didn’t get nearly as much money as Garcon and is not nearly as big of a name. He’s a decent player, but I got the feeling he was overrated for being underrated this offseason. The Redskins gave him 12 million over 2 years, but his former team, the 49ers, replaced him with Mario Manningham, a more proven player who came cheaper. Morgan has never had more than 44 catches for 698 yards and 3 touchdowns in a season, but he did play on a conservative offense in San Francisco. He’s also coming off a broken leg that cost him most of last season. He might not even be a starter in Washington so that signing was head scratching.

With Garcon and Morgan coming in, many wondered if Santana Moss would be cut. Moss has been one of the Redskins’ best players for the past decade or so, since his arrival following the 2004 season. However, he’s 33 and coming off his worst season since 2002 and missed several games with injuries. Instead, the Redskins cut Jabar Gaffney, their leading receiver from last year, who happened to be 2 years younger, which looked like a head scratching move at the time.

However, Moss responded very well to being kept on the roster. He lost 15 pounds and has been wowing in practice. He’s not even 2 years removed from 93 catches for 1115 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010 with poor quarterback play so he might still be able to contribute even at 33. 33 isn’t quite a death sentence for receivers and Moss has had a very underrated career in spite of consistently terrible quarterback play. At the very least, he’ll be their slot receiver, but reports say that he could still be a starter and might even end up being their #1 receiver since Garcon is so unproven. If Moss could find his old form, that would help Garcon a lot because, as I’ve already mentioned, he’s always been a secondary receiver.

I think that’s a little optimistic, but I do expect Moss to be a starter and their #2 wide receiver. In 3-wide receiver sets, he’ll move into the slot, where he’s a dangerous player. Morgan and Leonard Hankerson would then be left to compete for the #3 receiver job. The winner of that competition would play opposite Garcon with Moss in the slot when they go 3 wide. Both of those players are also in the mix for the starting job, but I think Moss will get it.

Hankerson was their 3^rd round pick last year and I thought they got a steal with him there. He started to prove me right, catching 8 passes for 106 yards against Miami in his 1^st start, but he got hurt and didn’t play again. Barring any lingering problems from his hip surgery, he should be their #3 receiver and could impress in limited action in that role because of his great athleticism.

It’s not all about the wide receivers in Washington. Fred Davis is one of the league’s most underrated players and one of the league’s best tight ends. He caught 59 passes for 796 yards and 3 touchdowns last year in just 12 games despite terrible quarterback play. He did miss 4 games with a suspension after failing a drug test and he would miss the entire season if he fails another one, but if that doesn’t happen, he could approach 1000 yards this year.  Griffin definitely has some players to throw to. With the additions of Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon and the returns of Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson, as well as likely a full season from Fred Davis, this should be a much improved receiving corps.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Mike Shanahan always had great offensive lines in Denver, but that hasn’t been the case in Washington. They allowed 41 sacks last year and graded out as the 3^rd worst run blocking offensive line on ProFootballFocus. Their most talented offensive lineman is Trent Williams, the 4^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Williams struggled as a rookie in 2010, but last year allowed just 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures in 9 games. He was penalized 8 times, but he graded out above average in run and pass blocking and had a 3.8 overall rating on ProFootballFocus. He did miss 3 games with injury and another 4 with suspension after failing a drug test. Like Davis, he’ll need to avoid another suspension because that would be for a year.

Other than that, things are pretty bleak for the Redskins up front, but having Williams out there for a full season will make things better. Their other offensive tackle is Jammal Brown. Brown was once an elite left tackle in New Orleans, but hasn’t been the same since hip surgery. He really struggled last year, allowing 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. He finished with a -18.5 rating.

He might never be the same again and the Redskins didn’t add a good backup behind him so they’ll get below average play from that position this year. Their primary backup there is Willie Smith. Smith started 4 games when Williams was suspended last year. He was absolutely awful, finishing with a -13.0 rating, allowing 3 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures.

Another player who missed a lot of time with injury last year was Kory Lichtensteiger. Lichtensteiger was their 2^nd best offensive lineman with a 2.7 rating last year, but missed 12 games with a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus. However, he is expected to return for Training Camp and start at left guard, which will be a welcome addition as his replacement, Maurice Hurt, graded out with a -12.5 rating.

Their other guard is Chris Chester. He played every snap in 2011, though the Redskins may have wished he hadn’t. Chester was actually above average in pass protection, but he was the league’s worst run blocking guard and his overall -17.2 rating was 70^th among 77 players at the position. If Lichtensteiger can’t bounce back from injury or Chester continues to struggle, 2012 3^rd round pick Josh LeRibeus could see some action, but guard is still hardly a position of strength.

Their center will once again be Will Montgomery, the other Washington offensive lineman to play every snap. He wasn’t too bad, at least not relatively, with a -6.4 rating. That number is skewed a little bit. He actually graded out with a 3.4 rating as a center, but a -9.8 rating in 3 games at left guard sunk his rating. If he’s allowed to play center full time this year, he should be a solid starter. For that reason, as well as the return of Kory Lichtensteiger and Trent Williams, and the addition of Josh LeRibeus as depth, the Redskins should be better upfront this season, but they’re still not great. Overall though, with the addition of Robert Griffin, a better receiving corps and a better offensive line, they should be a much improved offense.

Grade: C+

Defense

Defense was part of the problem for the Redskins last year as they ranked 18^th against the run, 21^st against the pass, and 21^st in points per game allowed with 22.1. They weren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they were offensively, but they weren’t great. However, they have a lot of talent, especially in the front 7, and they should be an improved bunch this season because they have a lot of young players.

Defensive Line

The Redskins had a lot of hope for their defensive line heading into 2011. They added two talented free agents, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield, and 2^nd round rookie Jarvis Jenkins, who was having a very strong Training Camp. However, Jenkins tore his ACL before week 1 and had to be replaced with the mediocre Adam Carriker in the starting lineup. Carriker is a decent pass rusher, but was horrible against the run. He was the worst run stuffing 3-4 defensive end on ProFootballFocus, which contributed to his overall -9.5 rating, 30^th at his position out of 32. Jenkins is once again having a strong offseason and he should be able to be the starter, putting Carriker in a situational role, where he’s better suited.

Bowen and Cofield weren’t as bad as Carriker, but they did disappoint a little bit and both graded out below average. Bowen had a -1.9 rating and Cofield had a -5.7 rating. Both have been very good players in the past as they had a 16.0 rating and a 17.2 rating respectively in 2010 so one or both could have bounce back years. Next to Jarvis Jenkins, with Adam Carriker serving a situational role with another solid situational player Chris Nield, that’s a pretty good defensive line.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

While the defensive line could be good, the linebackers might be even better. In fact, I think this is a very underrated group. They were a big part of the reason why they had 41 sacks last year, an impressive number. Ryan Kerrigan had an excellent rookie season with 9 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 451 pass rush snaps (12.6%). He wasn’t as good in coverage or against the run, but he was very good at what they needed him to do most. He played opposite Brian Orakpo, who had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures on 390 pass rush snaps (15.1%). He’s more proven than Kerrigan, who is going into only his 2^nd season, but the two combine for a very tough to stop pass rushing duo.

Things are also bright on the inside of their linebacking corps. London Fletcher has been one of the best linebackers of the decade and deserves to get his name mentioned with both Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher. He graded out with a 19.9 rating last year and was above average in all aspects of the game, run defense, pass rush, and pass coverage. He’s 37 now, but he’s beaten the odds countless times before.

Next to him is Perry Riley, a 2010 4^th round pick who played very well down the stretch. In 8 starts, he posted a 4.9 rating and was a major upgrade over Rocky McIntosh, who had a -8.8 rating in the first 8 games. McIntosh never was comfortable in Washington’s 3-4 and a full season of Riley next to Fletcher will make this defense better overall.

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Secondary

This is where things get bleaker defensively for the Redskins. DeAngelo Hall is one of the most overrated and overpaid players in the league. He has a 6 year, 55 million dollar contract likely because he has a lot of interceptions, but he struggles in coverage and gets torched far too often. He’s not a #1 cornerback and would be better off as a #2 cornerback so he wouldn’t have to cover opposing #1 wide receivers. Last season, he allowed 63 of 94 (67.0%) for 858 yards (9.1 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 10 deflections, and 4 penalties. His -8.5 coverage rating was 95^th out of 109 at his position.

Opposite him, Josh Wilson is a solid #2 cornerback. He had a -0.3 rating, which is almost as average as you can be. That wasn’t nearly as good as the 13.0 rating he had in 2010, 5^th at his position, when he was with Baltimore, but that season was a bit of a fluke. He’s a solid, but unspectacular cornerback. The Redskins signed Cedric Griffin to be their nickel back this season. He’s a decent nickel back and he’ll be a major upgrade over Kevin Barnes, who really struggled in that role last season. He ranked 98^th among 109 at his position and allowed 27 completions on 43 attempts (62.8%) for 350 yards (8.1 YPA), 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 1 deflection, and 2 penalties. It’s pretty pathetic that he was that bad as just a 3^rd cornerback and Griffin will be a major upgrade over him.

At safety, things are actually worse. They have a bunch of castoffs atop their depth chart. Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson were both met with a very unwelcoming free agency market. Meriweather was cut by the Patriots and benched by the Bears last season, while Jackson was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th worst safety with a -14.7 rating, the reason why the Buccaneers cut him this offseason. No one missed more tackles than Jackson did last year, 24. They’re expected to be the starters.

Madieu Williams will challenge them for the starting job. He barely played last year as a backup in San Francisco and was horrific the last time he was a starter in the league, with a -13.4 rating in 2010. Only one player was worse than that during that season. Reed Doughty could also be in the mix. He’s their most proven returning player at the position, but he too was awful last year with a -14.2 rating, 7^th worst at the position. DeJon Gomes could also be in the mix, but he barely played last year as he was just a 5^th round rookie. He’s unproven, but I guess that’s better than terrible, which everyone ahead of him on the depth chart is.

Overall, things are pretty bleak in the secondary for the Redskins, but they have some talent and good defenses do start upfront. The Redskins have an above average front 7 and a strong pass rush which should help make their pass defense at least passable. All in all, I think this is a solid defense and with an above average offense, they should definitely be able to compete for a playoff spot in 2012.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Shanahan’s reputation has taken a hit over the past 2 seasons, but he does have a 154-108 career record, which is pretty impressive. Some will say that he only has 2 Super Bowl rings because of John Elway, but remember Elway didn’t win a ring before him. Shanahan has also had success with several different quarterbacks. It wasn’t just Elway. He had success with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler.

Yes, he has an 11-21 record in the last 2 years, but he had a decrepit Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and John Beck as his quarterbacks. You can blame him for choosing those guys as his quarterbacks, but he never had much of a choice as the incumbent when he entered was Jason Campbell, who isn’t much better than any of those guys. This offseason, he made a bold move I really liked to secure a franchise quarterback, Robert Griffin. The Griffin/Shanahan duo should have success in the future and make people forget about the McNabb/Grossman/Beck days.

Grade: B+

Overall

One team has gone from 5 or fewer wins one year to the playoffs the next every season since 2003. The teams that would qualify in 2012: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Jacksonville. I think Washington has the best chance of that bunch. They should have an above average offense and a solid defense, which definitely puts them right in the race for a playoff spot even in a tight NFC and I’m going to give them the 6^th and final playoff spot.

They play in a tough division, but they should still be able to tough out 3-3 or 4-2. Outside of the division, they host Cincinnati, Atlanta, Minnesota, Carolina, and Baltimore. Minnesota is going to be a pretty easy game for them and I think they can go at least 2-2 in the other 4 games at home. Atlanta is not a good road team and I think Cincinnati and Baltimore will both disappoint this year. Carolina still has struggles defensively and could have another sub .500 year this year so 3-2 or 4-1 in non-divisional home games is possible.

That puts them at 7-4 across those 11 games. Their final 5 games, their non-divisional road games, send them to New Orleans, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. New Orleans and Pittsburgh should be tough ones, but the other 3 are all going to be pretty easy, so 10-6 or 11-5 is definitely in reach. That’s what it will take to win a wild card spot in the NFC. That will also qualify them to be this year’s super sleeper, a team that wins 6+ more games than the year before. There’s one every year.

Update: Robert Griffin’s offensive line has been so horrific this preseason and admittedly I may have been a little bit too high on them, especially in a crowded NFC. I like Griffin and their receivers and their defensive front 7, but their secondary and offensive line are way too glaring of holes to have in a passing league like this.

Projection: 8-8 3rd in NFC East

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