Offense
It’s crazy to think that the Vikings were in the NFC Championship game in 2009. 2010 was a lost year because they had a suddenly decrepit Brett Favre at quarterback and they won just 6 games. They started over in the 2011 NFL Draft, using the 12th pick in surprising fashion on Christian Ponder, widely considered a 2nd round pick. They also traded for Donovan McNabb, in hopes that his 2010 season was an aberration. It was not and McNabb was cut midseason, which forced Ponder to have to start before he was ready and the team finished at 3-13.
Adding insult to injury, their top offensive player, Adrian Peterson tore his ACL in a meaningless week 16 win over the Redskins. That win also dropped them out of the Andrew Luck/Robert Griffin sweepstakes. Both of 2011’s two win teams did very well for themselves in the draft. Indianapolis picked up Andrew Luck and St. Louis flipped Robert Griffin to the Redskins and picked up 1st round picks in the 2013 and 2014 NFL drafts. The Vikings, because they won week 16, were stuck at #3 and were forced to “settle” for Matt Kalil after trading down a spot with the Browns (picking up a 4th rounder in the process).
Things aren’t all bleak for the Vikings, however. Kalil will be a major upgrade at left tackle from the word go and will allow the team to more accurately evaluate Christian Ponder, who simply couldn’t have been properly evaluated with the lack of offensive supporting talent he had in 2011. If they hadn’t been able to do so, it would have set the organization back another year. They need to know if they have something with Ponder.
Quarterback
Speaking of Ponder, he didn’t play all that well last season. He completed 54.3% of his passes for 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. However, he was a mere rookie on a team with a terrible supporting cast and he didn’t look like a completely lost cause. He also picked up 219 yards on the ground. He led an offense that scored 21.3 points per game, good for a not terrible 19th in the league. In the 9 games in which he led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game, which would have been 16th in the league.
He spent this offseason adding 20 pounds bulk to his frame, in an attempt to fix his two biggest weaknesses, arm strength and durability. He’ll have a full season under center and a better supporting cast. The team had a Pythagorean Expectation of 5.5 wins last year, significantly greater than their actual win total, so they should be a better team this year, especially since they are more talented overall. However, unless Ponder can break out as a legitimate top-12 quarterback, this team will have a tough time making the playoffs, especially in such a tough division.
Grade: C+
Running Back
The 22.9 points per game that Ponder led this offense to in 9 games was undoubtedly aided by Adrian Peterson. Peterson had yet another outstanding season, rushing for 970 yards and 12 touchdowns on 208 carries (4.7 YPC). In his 5 year career, he’s rushed for 6752 yards and 64 touchdowns on 1406 carries (4.8 YPC). However, he tore his ACL week 16 last year.
Peterson, who has no injury history in the NFL (missed 3 games from 2007-2010) is doing remarkably in his recovery and could be ready to go for week 1. He may even be able to participate in some of Training Camp. This wouldn’t be a completely unprecedented comeback from this injury as Wes Welker returned in 8 months to be ready week 1 for the 2010 season after getting hurt in January of 2010. Peterson was injured in December of 2011, so this recovery would actually be a little longer. And if anyone can do it, it’s Peterson.
However, Welker struggled in the 2010 season, catching just 86 passes for 848 yards and 7 touchdowns, by far his worst totals (aside from the touchdowns) in 5 years with the Patriots. It’s fair to think Peterson won’t be 100% either, even if he can make it back for week 1. The Vikings clearly agree as they plan to use Toby Gerhart extensively early in the season until Peterson can get his legs back under him and may even make Gerhart the early season starter.
They would be smart to do so because they probably won’t contend either way. They don’t want Peterson to suffer any further injury that could threaten his availability in 2013 and beyond. Gerhart is fully capable of being the starter. He’s clearly not Peterson, but the 2010 2nd round pick has rushed for 853 yards and 2 touchdowns on 190 carries (4.5 YPC) in 2 seasons. At the very least, he should split carries with Peterson early in the season. Peterson could have his worst season as a pro in 2012 (though that wouldn’t be saying much).
Grade: B+
Offensive Line
The biggest upgrade the Vikings got this offseason was on the offensive line and it was much needed. The Vikings surrendered 49 sacks last year, tied for 5th most in the NFL. Ponder was pressured on 34.5% of his throws, 12th most in the NFL out of 36 eligible quarterbacks (25% of their team’s snaps). McNabb was even higher on that list, pressured on 41.1% of his throws, 2nd highest in the league behind only Tim Tebow.
It’s important that they protect Ponder, especially in his early years. They don’t want him to turn into David Carr and besides, it’s not like he’s been the most durable quarterback in his collegiate and professional career. Ponder also struggled under pressure, with an accuracy percentage of just 50.8% under pressure (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes), 4th worst in the league. That should improve in his 2nd year in the league, but he needs a strong offensive line in front of him.
Left tackle is the most important position on the offensive line and the Vikings were terrible at that spot last year. Bryant McKinnie, once a solid left tackle, showed up at 380 pounds out of the lockout and was promptly cut. Lacking a true replacement for him, they had to sign Charlie Johnson, who was fresh off of struggling mightily at left tackle in Indianapolis, protecting Peyton Manning, argubly the easiest quarterbacks in the league to protect.
In 2010, he allowed 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures. Unsurprisingly, he struggled protecting the blindside of Christian Ponder, who does not have Peyton Manning’s freakish ability to get rid of the ball in time to avoid sacks. Last season, Johnson had a -12.6 rating on ProFootballFocus and allowed 8 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties.
Drafting Matt Kalil was absolutely the right move, though they were reportedly considering Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon at that spot. Ponder needs to be protected to succeed and they can’t accurately evaluate him without getting him better protected. And why use the 12th overall pick on a player if you aren’t willing to do everything that is necessary to put yourself in a position to accurately evaluate him?
Kalil should be a solid left tackle from the word go in the NFL and Charlie Johnson will move to left guard. Johnson should be better off there than at left tackle. He’ll replace the departed Steve Hutchinson. Hutchinson was still an effective starter last year, but was cut because of his age and salary. Johnson will still be a downgrade.
The Vikings also let right guard Anthony Herrera go, but he won’t be nearly as missed. He was a poor starter who graded out with a -9.8 rating on ProFootballFocus last year. To replace him, the Vikings signed Geoff Schwartz. Schwartz missed all of last season with a hip injury, but he played very well in 2010 primarily at right guard, but also some at right tackle. He finished with a very impressive 12.3 rating. Still only heading into his age 26 season, he still has upside.
Schwartz will compete with Joe Berger for the right guard job. Berger made 7 starts last year, 1 at center, 4 at right guard, and 2 at left guard and graded out well with an 8.7 rating. He was a solid pass protector and a very good run blocker. Schwartz will likely win that starting job, leaving Berger as a utility offensive lineman on the interior again. Berger could push Charlie Johnson for the starting job at left guard if Johnson struggles at his new position. Berger played well enough last year to deserve a full time starting job in what’s now his age 30 season.
The Vikings may have not been a very good pass blocking team, but ProFootballFocus graded them out as the league’s top run blocking offensive line. The play of the departed Steve Hutchinson had something to do with that, but the play of either Schwartz or Berger will help make up for the loss, as will Johnson moving to a new position and Kalil coming in.
The play of center John Sullivan and right tackle Phil Loadholt also had a lot to do with that. Sullivan was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked center both in terms of overall rating and run blocking. His overall rating was 22.5. He was also decent as a pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures, while committing only 1 penalty. Loadholt, meanwhile, struggled as a pass protector, but was ProFootballFocus’ top rated run blocking offensive tackle. He did allow 9 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 10 penalties. Like the Vikings offensive line as a whole, he run blocked well and did not pass protect well. The addition of Matt Kalil, however, will help with the latter.
Grade: B-
[yard_barker]
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Another area the Vikings needed to upgrade this offseason was their receiving corps. Last year, only Percy Harvin was a reliable receiver for them. The Vikings made this a priority as well, but did not do as much as they did on the offensive line. The Vikings did sign Jerome Simpson. Simpson played well with 50 catches for 725 yards and 4 touchdowns as the Bengals’ #2 receiver last year. He’ll start opposite Percy Harvin, but he’ll have to serve a 3 game suspension first for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
Speaking of Harvin, he’s an incredibly talented player who could be due for a breakout year. In his last 11 games last year, he had 69 catches for 784 yards and 6 touchdowns, good for 100 catches for 1140 yards and 9 touchdowns if extrapolated over 16 games. A healthy Christian Ponder behind an improved offensive line is clearly a very good thing for Harvin.
Harvin also figures to get more playing time. He made a stink about his playing time last month and rightfully so as the 623 snaps he played last year were 2nd on the team behind the mediocre Devin Aromashodu and 57th in the league at his position (and that’s not counting playoffs, which Harvin didn’t make). He’ll see more snaps this year after putting up a stink and he remains his team’s best receiver by far.
On 402 passing plays, Harvin was targeted 118 times, good for once every 3.41 passing plays, the best rate in the league. He caught 87 passes for 975 yards and 6 touchdowns on those 118 targets. If he sees the field as much as he deserves to this season, he could have a huge year. 100+ catches for 1200+ yards is not an outrageous prediction for him. He also rushed for 345 yards and 2 touchdowns on 52 attempts last year, an added bonus with him.
Fantasy football players should take note that he was the 8th rated fantasy receiver last year and that he’s currently going off the board 19th among wide receiver. I think 8th is his floor this year with a now 2nd year quarterback behind a better offensive line and as he gets more playing time. I have him as a top-5 fantasy football wide receiver heading into the season.
But enough about Harvin and on to the rest of the Vikings receivers. Mediocre veterans Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashodu will compete to start in Simpson’s absence, as will 2011 7th round pick Stephen Burton, who the organization is high on. They also have a pair of 4th round receivers from Arkansas, Greg Childs, and Jarius Wright. Neither of those guys are going to be cut, obviously. Harvin won’t be cut and neither will Jerome Simpson.
That leaves Aromashodu, Jenkins, and Burton to not only compete for a temporary starting job, but also for either 1 or 2 roster spots (probably two, at least to start the season). Jenkins and Aromashodu are squarely on the roster bubble, especially if the younger, cheaper Burton continues to upstage them in practice. Whoever starts in Simpson’s absence will play outside in 3-wide receiver sets when he returns, as Percy Harvin will move into the slot. Whoever is the runner up in that competition will serve that role in Simpson’s absence, or, on the off chance that he’s not the on the roster, that will leave Greg Childs to be the #3 receiver early in the year.
At tight end, the Vikings have a 2nd year tight end in Kyle Rudolph waiting to break out. Rudolph saw significantly fewer snaps than veteran starter Visanthe Shiancoe last season, but played much better than him. The 2011 2nd round pick could have a great year. He blocks well and pass catches well. The Vikings needed a #2 tight end behind him with Shiancoe leaving, but rather than resigning Shiancoe for cheap or another tight end for cheap, the Vikings spent 25 million dollars over 5 years on John Carlson.
That might have been the most head scratching move any team made this offseason. Not only did the Vikings not need a 5 million dollar per year #2 tight end, but Carlson missed all of last season with injury and was not even worth 5 million per year before his injury. Carlson caught just 31 passes for 318 yards and a touchdown in 2010 and it’s not like he’s a good blocker or anything. There’s a reason the Seahawks signed Zach Miller to start instead of him last offseason, even before he got hurt. The Vikings plan to use a lot of two-tight end sets to combat their lack of proven depth at receiver, but Carlson will not be worth his salary.
Ponder should be a decent starting quarterback this year in his first full season as a starter. He has a better supporting cast than last year, thanks to some additions on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. Adrian Peterson is not 100%, but he should still be able to form a solid tandem with Toby Gerhart and they run behind an excellent run blocking offense. They could actually have a decent offense. They ranked 19th in scoring last year and 16th with Ponder under center. They could creep up into the top-15.
Grade: C+
Defense
However, defense is the problem area. They ranked 31st in the league in opponent’s scoring, allowing 28.1 points per game. They ranked 30th against the pass with 8.1 YPA, despite a league leading 50 sacks (tied with Philadelphia). Their once proud defense is less than a shadow of its former self and unless that changes or the offense somehow becomes elite, I can’t see this team being relevant in 2012.
Defensive Line
I mentioned the Vikings’ 50 sacks last year. That was the result of strong defensive line play. I can’t imagine how bad their pass defense would have been without it. Their strong defensive line play contributed to their 6th ranked run defense, though unfortunately this is a passing league so that’s not as important.
The main reason they ranked 1st in the league in sacks was the 24 sacks that Jared Allen had, one shy of an NFL record. Allen had 24 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 594 pass rush snaps, good for a pass rush rate of 11.1%. That’s certainly not bad, but that’s not nearly as good as the 24 sacks would suggest. In fact, that number suggests that Allen got pretty lucky to get the 24 sacks he had, as you can imagine anyone would have to be to get that high of a sacks total.
Allen has been the one of the league’s best pass rushers since his rookie year in 2004, with 105 sacks in 8 years and even he’d never exceeded 15.5 sacks before last season. He also was only ProFootballFocus’ 8th rated defensive end as a pass rusher last year, thanks to his 8th ranked pass rush efficiency rating (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(pressures)/pass rush snaps). That number of 24 doesn’t seem replicable at all. He’ll have a great year, don’t get me wrong. But he could have 10 fewer sacks than he did last year and still have a great year. It would, however, be a big hit to the Vikings’ sacks total.
Allen also plays the run well and ranked 5th at his position on ProFootballFocus with a 35.1 rating. He was also one of just 4 players at his position to grade out with a rating above 10 as a pass rusher and run stuffer (Trent Cole, Terrell Suggs, Jason Pierre Paul). He also led his position in regular season snaps played with 1044, 70 more than the next closest player. In fact, even counting playoffs, only Jason Pierre Paul, who went to the Super Bowl, played more snaps than him. He doesn’t take plays off and he plays incredibly well.
Opposite him, Brian Robison also played well. He was ProFootballFocus’ 20th ranked 4-3 defensive end with a rating of 13.0, on the strength of 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures on 533 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.1%. The 1st year starter was undoubtedly helped by having Jared Allen opposite him, just like the guy who he replaced, Ray Edwards, was. Edwards sucked as a pass rusher in his first season away from Minnesota.
On the inside of their defensive line, the Vikings have yet another stud, defensive tackle Kevin Williams. Williams is also helped by Jared Allen’s presence, but he’s played at a Pro Bowl caliber level before and after Allen, ever since the Vikings took him 9th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft. He played equally well as a run stuffer and a pass protector last year and had a 17.8 rating overall, good for 8th at his position. He’s heading into his age 32 season, but is showing no signs of slowing down.
The black sheep of the Vikings’ strong defensive line is Letroy Guion. Guion is a decent run stuffer, but offers very little pass rush and graded out negatively on ProFootballFocus. He rotates with Fred Evans and Remi Ayodele, similar players, at the position. Ayodele is not back with the team in 2012 after signing with the Saints.
The Vikings are hoping Christian Ballard, a 2011 4th round pick who is moving from end back to his collegiate position of tackle, can break out and not only play well in some snaps as a situational pass rusher, but maybe even emerge as a starter. He’s a talented player who could have gone in the 2nd round of the 2011 NFL Draft had it not been for a positive marijuana test at The Combine. As Ballard moves from end to tackle, Everson Griffen, a solid situational player, will see more snaps at end as a backup. He can also play some linebacker.
Grade: A-
Linebackers
Speaking of linebacker, the Vikings have a trio that run stuff well, but do not cover well. Chad Greenway is the leader of the bunch. The highly paid linebacker ranked 9th among 4-3 outside linebackers against the run, but graded out negatively overall because he ranked dead last at his position in coverage. He allowed 67 completions on 86 attempts (77.9%) for 717 yards (8.3 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and no interceptions, good for a QB rating allowed of 120.8, worst out of 29 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers (50% of their team’s snaps).
Departed middle linebacker EJ Henderson was a very similar player. He ranked 3rd among middle linebackers against the run, but dead last in coverage. He allowed 38 completions on 46 attempts (82.6%) for 372 yards (8.1 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions, good for a QB rating allowed of 114.9, 5th at his position among eligible players (60% of their team’s snaps). The aged linebacker is gone, but Jasper Brinkley, his replacement, is a very similar player. The only difference is that the 2009 5th round pick is incredibly inexperienced, playing just 264 career snaps. He also missed all of last year with groin and hip problems.
The 3rd linebacker is EJ Henderson’s younger brother Erin Henderson. Erin was only a two down run stuffing linebacker last year and came off the field in sub packages when they used only two linebackers, but he ironically had the best coverage rating of the bunch, though that’s not saying much and he was not asked to cover much. Henderson, however, did an amazing job against the run. Despite limited playing time, he ranked 4th at his position with a 21.8 rating, including 3rd against the run. He’ll be counted on in more of a 3 down role this year as it’s expected to be Brinkley who leaves in field in sub packages. If he can break out as a true 3 down linebacker, it will be a big boost to the Vikings’ defense. He might just be a two down stuffer like everyone else though.
The fact that none of their linebackers can cover is incredibly bad because the Vikings run a cover 2 scheme which relies on their linebackers covering a lot. Their linebackers’ poor play in coverage last year was almost as much at fault for their 30th ranked pass defense as their actual secondary was, though that secondary was not very good either.
[google_ad]
Secondary
I’ll get to the cornerbacks in a minute, but I’d like to start with the safeties. A cover 2 scheme like the Vikings run relies on not only good coverage linebackers, but also good coverage safeties. The Vikings didn’t have either of those last season. At free safety, Jamarca Sanford was absolutely awful, ranking 82th among 84 safeties with a -17.7 rating and dead last in coverage. He surrendered 20 completions on 31 attempts (64.5%) for 344 yards (11.1 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. That was good for a 114.8 QB rating allowed, good for 4th worst among eligible safeties (60% of their team’s snaps).
Sanford has been rightfully benched in favor of Harrison Smith, who the Vikings traded back up into the 1st round to grab. He’s just a rookie so it’s tough to count on him for much, but he’ll be better than Sanford. At strong safety, Mistral Raymond and Husain Abdullah split time last year, but neither played well. Adbullah even had a worse QB rating allowed than Sanford (133.6). He’s gone, so 5th round rookie RJ Blanton will compete with Raymond for the starting job. Blanton could sadly win that job, despite the fact that he is a 5th round rookie.
At cornerback, things are a little better, but not much. Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook both return and will start. Both are solid players, but Winfield is heading into his age 35 season and has struggled with injuries of late. Cook, meanwhile, missed a lot of time last year with a team issued suspension for off the field issues. The 2010 2nd round pick played alright last year and definitely has upside, but he’s still unproven, having played just 498 snaps in his 2 year career. 3rd round rookie Josh Robinson is expected to be the nickel cornerback as Cedric Griffin, who actually did a decent job, is gone. That’s 3 rookies who could play significant roles in the secondary for the Vikings.
With 3 rookies possibly playing a significant role in the secondary, and minimal talent elsewhere, unless Winfield, coming off a broken collarbone, somehow plays 16 games at an elite level at age 35, the Vikings will struggle to stop the pass next season. It doesn’t help that none of their linebackers can cover either, something that’s a requirement in their scheme. They’ll rush the passer pretty well (though they won’t have 50 sacks again unless Jared Allen goes for 24 again) and they stop the run well, but if they can’t stop anyone through the air, in spite of a great pass rush, this will once again be one of the worst defenses in the league. They allowed a brutal 34 touchdowns to 8 interceptions in the air last year and allowed a QB rating of 107.6. For reference, only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees recorded QB ratings higher than that last year.
Grade: C
Head Coach
Leslie Frazier got the interim coach tag removed after finishing 3-3 with a previously 3-7 team in 2011. However, he responded with just a 3-13 season in his first year as Head Coach. It’s possible his strong finish to the 2010 season was just a fluke and/or the result of the team firing Brad Childress, who the players weren’t responding to any more, rather than anything Frazier did. He’s still inexperienced, but another bad year in 2012 could lead to his name coming up in the annual “coaches who could get fired” rumblings on sports talk shows and websites around the country. A decent year in 2012 should buy him another year though, but if he can’t make the playoffs in 2013, he will probably be gone.
Grade: C+
Overall
The Vikings will be better than the 3 win team they were in 2011. Even their Pythagorean Expectation said they should have won 5.5 games last year, but a 2-10 record in games decided by 7 or fewer did them in. That stuff tends to even out so if they get in 12 games decided by 7 or fewer in 2012, it’s reasonable to expect them to go 6-6, which would put them at 6 wins overall, right around their Pythagorean Expectation from last year. They’re also a little bit more talented as they get guys back in the secondary and they add talent on offense at wide receiver and on the offensive line.
However, unless Christian Ponder breaks out and establishes himself as a top-12 quarterback, this team doesn’t have a chance to be a playoff team this year. They’re not going to have Adrian Peterson at full strength. Their receiving corps is still on the thin side and their offensive line is just average. Meanwhile, their defense can’t stop anyone. They couldn’t last year, despite recovering 15 fumbles, tied for most in the league. That type of thing is as much luck as it is skill and may even be more luck than skill. On top of all this, they have a brutal schedule. A breakout year from Christian Ponder would definitely help, but I don’t see one coming.
Speaking of that schedule, they went 0-6 in the division last year. Given that they might have the toughest divisional competition in the league, that could happen again. A 0-6 divisional record would leave them needing to go 6-4 outside of the division to even win 6 games. At best, they’ll win a game or two in the division.
Outside of the division, they host Jacksonville, San Francisco, Tennessee, Arizona, and Tampa Bay. Jacksonville and Arizona are definitely winnable games and the other 3 aren’t hard. They could win 2 or 3 of these games. They also go to Indianapolis, Washington, Seattle, St. Louis, and Houston. Houston and Washington are tough teams, while Seattle is a tough place to play, and St. Louis and Indianapolis will both be improved this year. At best, I think this is a 6 win team.
Update: No real reason why I’m adding the extra win, but when I made updates elsewhere, I was left needing to assign an extra win somewhere and the Vikings were right on the 5/6 borderline.
Projection: 6-10 4th in NFC North
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
Football Fan Spot 