Offense
Think the Panthers made the right selection with the 1st overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft? After scoring 12.3 points per game in 2010, fewest in the league by 4.6 points per game, the Panthers scored 25.4 points per game last year, which was tied for 5th most in the NFL. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton set the record for, among other things, rookie passing yards in a game (twice, in consecutive weeks), rookie passing yards in a season, and rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. Not bad for someone widely considered a project.
Newton also contributed in a big way on the ground and opened things up for running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, helping lead the Panthers to a league leading 5.4 YPC. He resurrected Steve Smith from the dead, as the 32-year-old caught 79 passes for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, after just 46 catches for 554 yards and 2 touchdowns the year before. He also made a pedestrian offensive line look better than they were by taking a sack on just 16.8% of pressured snaps. If he can avoid a sophomore slump, the Panthers should have one of the league’s best offenses again this season.
Quarterback
A closer look at Newton’s stats shows that his production was worse in the 2nd half of the season than in the 1st. In the 1st half of the season, he completed 60.6% of his passes for an average of 8.3 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, as opposed to 59.1% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in the 2nd half of the season. That could be a sign of an upcoming sophomore slump. He also didn’t surpass 200 yards in any of his last 3 games. Overall, Newton completed 60.0% of his passes for an average of 7.8 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions.
One area of Newton’s game that didn’t decline in the 2nd half was his rushing ability. In the first half of the season, he rushed for 319 yards and 7 touchdowns and, in the 2nd half, he rushed for 387 yards and 7 touchdowns. Newton led all quarterbacks in carries with 126, 38th in the league overall. However, he’ll probably run a little bit less this season, just to improve his longevity.
Newton also rushed for 14 touchdowns last season, the most of any quarterback ever. That’s not going to be replicable this season. The all-time leader in career rushing touchdowns for a quarterback is Steve Young with 43 and he maxed out at 7 in a season. Williams and Stewart, who combined for just 11 touchdowns last year, should get more touchdowns, as could Newton in terms of passing touchdowns, provided he doesn’t go into a sophomore slump.
Grade: B+
Running Backs
As I’ve mentioned, Newton’s rushing abilities open things up for Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams on the ground, because the defense’s front 7 is forced to focus on Newton’s ability to take off and run. This is much the same way Tim Tebow opened things up for Willis McGahee, Michael Vick for LeSean McCoy, and Vince Young for Chris Johnson (once upon a time). Newton’s own rushing abilities (706 yards and 14 touchdowns) also add to the Panthers’ prowess on the ground. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that they have two very talented backs who could start on at least half the teams in the league.
Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams both averaged 5.4 YPC last year, allowing the Panthers to lead the league in that category. Their fantasy upside and statistical production is limited by the presence of the other and Newton stealing some carries, but Stewart rushed for 761 yards and 4 touchdowns on 142 carries, while Williams rushed for 836 yards and 7 touchdowns on 155 carries.
With Newton, Stewart, and Williams essentially splitting carries, it limits their individual statistical upside, but makes each more efficient and their ground game more deadly overall. Newton will score fewer touchdowns and probably run less overall, so Stewart and Williams could see a slight improvement in statistical production this year, particularly in terms of touchdowns, which is worth noting for fantasy leagues.
Stewart is also one of the team’s best pass catchers with 47 catches for 413 yards last year. In addition, the Panthers signed Mike Tolbert as added insurance at running back and to serve as a pass catching fullback on passing downs. The 245 pound Tolbert has a fullback’s build and caught 54 passes for 433 yards in San Diego last year.
Grade: A
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
It’s a good thing that the Panthers have good pass catching backs because they are pretty thin at wide receiver. Steve Smith had an improbable career resurgence at age 32 last year, catching 79 passes for 1394 yards and 7 touchdowns, exceeding his previous year’s totals by 33 catches, 840 yards, and 5 touchdowns. Getting rid of the noodle armed Jimmy Clausen as his quarterback and getting a quarterback who could actually hit him deep definitely helped, but now, at age 33, it’s fair to question how much longer he can keep this going. Even elite receivers aren’t elite much past age 33 or 34.
Of the 11 receivers who have played in the last decade and finished in the top-20 in receiving, 9 had a 1000 yard season at age 33 or older, 8 had a 1000 yard season at age 34 or older 6 had a 1000 yard season at age 35 or older, 2 had a 1000 yard season at age 36 or older, and only Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season after age 37.
The average age of a final 1000 yard season is 34.5. In 21 total combined seasons after their last 1000 yard season, they combined for 1003 catches (47.8 per season) for 12476 yards (594.1 per season) and 70 touchdowns (3.3 per season). Of the 11, 9 played at age 34 or older, 8 played at age 36 or older, 6 played at age 37 or older, 2 played at age 38 or older, and only Jerry Rice played after age 38. The average age of a final season is 36.5.
The point, even great receivers don’t play well into their mid 30s. Even the average top 20 receiver has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. And as far as top 20 receivers go, Steve Smith is probably below average.
Smith will probably retire as a top-20 receiver all time, but, currently 1626 yards shy of 20th place Michael Irvin and 3104 yards shy of 10th place Torry Holt, it’s unrealistic to expect him to finish his career too far into that group. He’ll probably finish in the mid to late teens, in terms of receiving yards rank all-time. Smith’s abilities could fall off a cliff at any point in the next 3 seasons and his inevitable decline is likely to begin this season.
Unfortunately for the Panthers, they don’t have much behind him. Brandon LaFell, a 2010 3rd round pick, will start opposite Smith. The 3rd year is normally the breakout year for receivers, but I wouldn’t expect too much from LaFell. He’s a pretty marginal talent. There’s a reason he fell to the 3rd round and he hasn’t done much in 2 seasons to prove he didn’t deserve to go as low as the 3rd round. Last year was the better of his 2 seasons, as he caught 36 balls for 613 yards and 3 touchdowns and he has totaled just 74 catches for 1081 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 seasons in the NFL so far.
Behind him on the depth chart, the Panthers have David Gettis. Gettis showed some promise as a 6th round rookie in 2010, with 37 catches for 508 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he missed all of last season with a torn ACL and he isn’t fully healthy yet. He could be pushed for the #3 receiver job by Louis Murphy, if he misses too much of Training Camp. Murphy, recently acquired from the Raiders, has 90 catches for 1371 yards and 6 touchdowns in 3 career seasons, but he has his own injury problems, missing 7 games in the last 2 seasons, including 5 last year. Joe Adams, meanwhile, is a 4th round pick rookie who will have most of, if not all of his impact purely on special teams this year.
They’ve got some alright players on the depth chart behind Smith, but they don’t have another impact player should Smith slip up and they don’t even have another above average starter. To combat this, the Panthers plan to use many two-tight end sets, like they did last year. I also already mentioned that their backs can produce some in the passing game.
Tight end Greg Olsen is a solid pass catcher, who caught 45 passes for 540 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. He could see an increase in those numbers with Jeremy Shockey gone. In Shockey’s absence, Gary Barnidge, who the Panthers are very high on, will be the #2 tight end. He’s incredibly unproven and missed all of last season with a broken ankle. The Panthers have not ruled out bringing back Shockey, who caught 37 passes for 455 yards and 4 touchdowns last year, though heading into his age 32 season, his best days are behind him. None of their tight ends are very good blockers either. Ben Hartsock was their blocking specialist last year and should remain that, but he barely plays.
After Smith, the Panthers don’t really have an impact receiver, so it will be very bad if his abilities fell off a cliff and it will also hurt them if his abilities predictably decline slightly. They’ll use a lot of two-tight end sets and pass to the backs to compensate, but, even there, they don’t have another impact receiver. Besides, Cam Newton’s arm strength is best utilized in a downfield offense and an offense that relies heavily on tight ends and running backs in the passing game is not a downfield one. For this reason, along with his 2nd half decline last year, I predict a slight sophomore slump from Newton and the rest of this offense.
Grade: B-
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Offensive Line
One aspect that Cam Newton also helped was the Panthers’ offensive line, as you can expect out of a mobile quarterback. Newton showed great pocket presence, taking just 35 sacks on the season, despite being pressured on 34.4% of his snaps, 6th highest in the league among quarterbacks who played 50% or more of their team’s snaps. He only took a sack on 16.8% of his pressured snaps, 15th out of 24 eligible quarterbacks. The Panthers’ offensive line ranked 20th in the league in pass blocking efficiency, though, as you could expect, they ranked 4th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus.
Left tackle Jordan Gross turned in another fine season, ranking 10th at his position on ProFootballFocus. He was a solid pass protector, allowing 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties and run blocking very well. Heading into his age 32 season, however, his best years are behind him. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Panthers used a high pick on an offensive tackle in the 2013 NFL Draft and moved Gross to right tackle, in his age 33 season in 2013.
Another reason they could use a pick on an offensive tackle in 2013 is because their right tackle position sucks. Any early pick could spend a year or two at right tackle, before moving to left tackle in 2014 or 2015. Jeff Otah was once a solid starting right tackle. However, he missed every game except 4 in the last 2 seasons and, according Panthers’ beat writers, the organization thought he was “soft” and questioned his commitment to football. The Panthers sent him to the Jets for a conditional late round pick this offseason.
That may prove to be a mistake because Otah, still only 26, could get his act together in New York and be a solid starting right tackle once more. Meanwhile, in his absence over the last two years, the Panthers have gotten very poor play from the right tackle position, so they shouldn’t have given up on Otah so soon. Gary Williams, now no longer with the team, was awful at the spot in 2010 and Byron Bell was even worse last season.
Bell made 12 starts and allowed 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures, while committing 12 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. He ranked 62th among 73 offensive tackles on ProFootballFocus last year and was even worse, 68th, as a run blocker. He’s expected to be the starter at right tackle again this season, though Bruce Campbell, who the team acquired from Oakland, could challenge him in camp. He probably won’t win though. The highly athletic 2010 4th round pick has played just 19 snaps in 2 seasons and has not yet begun to remotely reasonable a competent offensive lineman.
Things are better on the interior of the offensive line. Geoff Hangartner played pretty well at right guard last year. He was better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, but decent in both aspects, and only committed 2 penalties. He allowed 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures and his 1.2 rating on ProFootballFocus was pretty average.
Next to him, center Ryan Kalil is one of the best centers in the league. He’s been a top-8 center on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Nick Mangold and Chris Myers can also say. Last year, he ranked 8th with an 8.2 rating, run blocking and pass protecting well. He allowed 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures, and committed just 4 penalties.
Left guard could be a problem. 2nd round rookie Amini Silatolu will compete with veteran Mike Pollak for the starting job. Pollak has been a pretty mediocre offensive lineman for the Colts over the past couple years. Silatolu, meanwhile, is unproven. However, while they don’t have a great offensive line, Cam Newton makes them look better than they are as pass protectors and they’re great as run blockers, helping what was the league’s top run offense last year. They should be near the top in that category again this season.
My one concern with their offense is a sophomore slump from Cam Newton. Newton won’t be helped by a thin receiving corps, headlined by an aging Steve Smith. I’m not saying Newton will suck or anything, but he led a top-5 offense last year in terms of scoring. I don’t know if that will happen again this season.
Grade: B
Defense
If the Panthers are going to take the next step as a team, they’ll have to play better defensively. The Panthers surrendered more points per game than they allowed last year, ranking 27th overall in points per game allowed, with 26.8 points per game allowed. This is nothing new for them. In 2010, they ranked 26th overall in points per game allowed, allowing 25.5 per. They used their 9th overall pick on linebacker Luke Kuechly and get two other linebackers, Jon Beason and Thomas Davis, back from injury, but they should still struggle to get pressure on the opposing quarterback and to cover opponent’s receivers. That will really hurt their ability to be even a decent defense.
There were some rumblings this offseason that they would switch from the 4-3 they ran last season, to the 3-4 that Head Coach Ron Rivera has his background in. However, they will not be doing so. Ron Rivera is a smart coach who knows his personnel would not fit a 3-4 defense well, so he adapts and will make due once again with a 4-3.
The Panthers have three talented and high paid linebackers in Luke Kuechly, James Anderson, and Jon Beason, and one experienced (and highly paid) backup in Thomas Davis. However, none of those players could play 3-4 outside linebacker because they aren’t good pass rushers. They would all have to play 3-4 middle linebacker, which would create a huge logjam and leave one talented and highly paid linebacker without a starting job and leave Davis without a role at all.
On top of that, their top pass rusher, Charles Johnson, also a very highly paid player, would not fit a 3-4 well at all at 6-2 275. They don’t really have another proven pass rusher so switching to a scheme that their only good pass rusher wouldn’t fit wouldn’t make any sense. Greg Hardy, the opposite defensive end, would fit better as a five technique than a rush linebacker at 6-4 300, while defensive tackles Ron Edwards and Sione Fua would be fits as nose tackles, leaving Terrell McClain to be the other five technique.
However, this would leave the Panthers without another player to play opposite Charles Johnson at outside linebacker. Either nickel rusher Antawn Applewhite, inexperienced players Eric Norwood and Thomas Keiser, or 4th round rookie Frank Alexander would have to be the other rush linebacker. Alexander is the most talented pass rusher of that group, but he, like Johnson, is not a good fit for a 3-4 at 6-4 271. It’s a good thing this won’t be happening, at least not in 2012.
Defensive Line
I’ve already mentioned Charles Johnson extensively. He’s their best pass rusher. He wasn’t quite as good last season as his breakout year in 2010, when he ranked 2nd at his position on ProFootballFocus, and you can argue that he’s slightly overpaid at 6 years, 76 million. However, he did play very well again last season, ranking 17th at his position, rushing the passer well and stopping the run pretty well as well. On 433 pass rush snaps, he had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, good for a 11.1% pass rush rate.
Opposite him, Greg Hardy only managed 4 sacks, but that’s not the whole story. He also had 8 quarterback hits and 33 quarterback pressures, giving him a solid 8.9% pass rush rate on 503 pass rush snaps. He also led his position with 8 batted passes, for what it’s worth. With better luck, he could turn some of those hits and pressures into sacks and post a pretty decent total. However, Hardy has, with his coaching staff’s blessing, bulked up from 280 to 300 this offseason, which will hurt him as a pass rusher, though it’ll help him as a run stuffer and allow him to move inside and play defensive tackle on passing downs.
He’ll be needed at defensive tackle because that’s a position of weakness. A pair of 3rd round rookies, Sione Fua and Terrell McClain, started there in 2011 and both played very poorly, ranking 75th and 84th respectively out of 88 defensive tackles on ProFootballFocus. The Panthers didn’t use the 9th overall pick on Fletcher Cox because they believe those two can bounce back, but it’s no sure thing. After all, they weren’t that highly regarded coming out of school. 3rd rounders only turn into starters about 30% of the time.
Along with Hardy seeing some snaps at defensive tackle, the Chiefs will also have Ron Edwards back from a torn triceps injury that cost him his entire 2011 season. He’s 33 though so I don’t know what he has left, but he should be an upgrade over last year’s top reserve, Andre Neblett, who played very poorly, even in limited action.
With Hardy possibly moving to defensive tackle in sub packages, either Frank Alexander or Antawn Applewhite will come in as the nickel rusher, though I suppose Eric Norwood and Thomas Keiser will also be in the running for nickel duties. Two of the aforementioned four defensive ends should see pretty significant action as rotational ends this season.
Alexander is only a 4th round rookie, but the other three did play last year. Unfortunately, they only combined for 6 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 376 pass rush snaps, good for a 8.7% pass rush rate, not very good for situational rushers. The Panthers could really struggle to get pressure in sub packages, as well as possibly in base packages. They also are very thin at defensive tackle.
Grade: C+
Linebackers
As I’ve mentioned, the Panthers linebacking corps is the strength of their defense. Unfortunately, this is the least important of the 3 levels of defense. They’ll be a solid team against the run, thanks to their improved linebacking corps, but a poor defensive line will hurt in that aspect and this is a passing league, so run stuffing isn’t as important. Still, it’s worth noting that this is a strong group.
Jon Beason will return from an Achilles injury that cost him his entire 2011 season. He was an above average starter before his injury, but it’s possible that he could not be his old self in his first year back from a major injury, especially early in the season. At one outside linebacker spot next to him, 2012 9th overall pick Luke Kuechly will start. Kuechly is one of the best collegiate linebackers of the decade. He can play all 3 downs and looks like the favorite to be defensive rookie of the year right now.
The 3rd linebacker is James Anderson, a solid starter who was better in 2010 than in 2011. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker, but last year, he was just average with a -2.4 rating. It’s unclear which of these three will leave the field in sub packages, but my money would be on Beason, at least early in the season. Focusing on being a two down run stuffer would be the best use of his abilities and allow him to ease his way back into action. Kuechly would then move inside to his collegiate position, middle linebacker, in sub packages.
Thomas Davis, meanwhile, could contribute some as a reserve in a situational or rotational role, but he’s had 3 ACL tears and players rarely, if ever, recover from that. He hasn’t played a game since 2009, when he only played in 7. None of his 4.25 million is guaranteed this season, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he were a final cut, especially since they don’t really need him. 4.25 million dollars is a lot of money for a reserve linebacker. He could restructure, I suppose.
Grade: A-
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Secondary
Like their pass rush and defensive line, the Panthers’ secondary is a major weakness. As you can expect from a team with a poor pass rush and a weak secondary, the Panthers sucked in coverage last year, allowing a league worst 8.4 YPA. I don’t see that getting much better this season and their whole defense will struggle as a result.
#1 cornerback Chris Gamble actually played pretty well, allowing just 27 completions on 60 attempts (45.0%) for 338 yards (5.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and only committing 2 penalties. Among cornerbacks who played 50% of their team’s snaps, his 53.3 QB rating allowed was only behind Darrelle Revis and Asante Samuel.
However, the now 29 year old has never done anything like that in his career prior to last season, so it might not be replicable and even if it is, his abilities are not as impactful as they could be because opposing quarterbacks can easily pick on the opposite cornerback. That’s exactly what they did in 2011 as only 3 cornerbacks were thrown against on a lower percentage of their coverage snaps (12.1%). He only allowed a completion on 5.5% of his coverage snaps, only behind Nnamdi Asomugha.
Last year, those opposite cornerbacks were Donald Butler and Captain Munnerlyn. Munnerlyn began the year as the starter, with Butler in the slot, but the two swapped jobs towards the end of the season. Both were terrible. Munnerlyn allowed 45 completions on 61 attempts (73.8%) for 607 yards (10.0 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while deflecting 4 passes and committing 8 penalties.
Butler, meanwhile, allowed 34 completions on 53 attempts (64.2%) for 469 yards (8.8 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions, while deflecting 7 passes and committing a penalty. Both allowed QB ratings among the 7 worst among cornerbacks who played 25% or more of their team’s snaps, as Munnerlyn allowed a 126.9 QB rating (3rd worst) and Butler allowed a 117.6 rating (7th worst).
Both will compete for the starting job this season with 5th round rookie Josh Norman and 2011 4th round pick Brandon Hogan, who played just 57 snaps last season and admits he’s still not 100% after tearing his ACL in December of 2010. I don’t think any of those guys will be a competent starter and the fact that a 5th round rookie could legitimate start for them tells you all you need to know.
Things aren’t much better at safety. Sherrod Martin and Charles Godfrey will start again. They ranked 54th and 75th respectively out of 84 safeties on ProFootballFocus last year and Godfrey ranked 77th in coverage. Martin was better in coverage, but still not great and really struggled as a run stopper. The Ravens signed Haruki Nakamura from the Ravens to potentially platoon with Martin and come in on clear running downs, but he won’t help their pass defense, which figures to once again be one of the worst in the NFL.
They’ll stop the run fine thanks to a strong linebacking corps, but in a passing league, their inability to stop anyone through the air will keep their defense towards the bottom of the league in terms of points per game allowed. They didn’t really do anything to fix their defensive line or secondary this offseason. All they did was use a 4th round pick on Frank Alexander, a 5th round pick on Josh Norman, and sign the mediocre Haruki Nakamura.
Grade: C+
Head Coach
He’s only got one year of experience, but Ron Rivera turned things around in a hurry in Carolina, going 6-10 last season and positioning them to be a contender in the near future and possibly a perennial contender once they get there. Cam Newton obviously helps and deserves a ton of the credit, but Rivera was part of the draft team that decided to select him (though I bet even he’d admit he didn’t think he’d be THIS good THIS fast). Before being a Head Coach, Rivera was a highly regarded defensive coordinator. Without him this season, San Diego fell from 10th to 23rd in opponent’s scoring and from 1st to 16th in opponent’s yardage this season. There’s a lot to like with him, even if it is still early.
Grade: B
Overall
Offensively, I don’t think the Panthers will be as good as they were last season. They won’t be bad, but they won’t be a top-5 scoring offense again. Cam Newton could have a bit of a sophomore slump and his thin receiving corps, headlined by an aging player in Steve Smith, won’t help him avoid that. Defensively, meanwhile, they’ll once again struggle to stop opponent’s passing attacks, a very bad thing in a pass heavy league. Overall, I actually think the Panthers will play worse this season than they did last season.
The good news, however, is that they actually played better than their 6-10 record would have suggested last year. They had a Pythagorean Expectation of 7.48 and that’s normally a more accurate predictor of future success than pure win loss record. Newton and company were 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that, history suggests, evens out in the long run. This isn’t to say they’ll be a good team in close games this year (the gambler’s fallacy), but it’s more accurate to predict them to be average in close games than bad, especially now that Newton isn’t a rookie anymore.
The Panthers do still face a brutal schedule. They play in a very tough division with New Orleans, Atlanta, and a Tampa Bay team that should bounce back. They swept the season series with Tampa Bay last year, but didn’t get a single win against New Orleans or Atlanta. I expect them to get at least one win against New Orleans or Atlanta this year, but they won’t necessarily sweep Tampa Bay. I have them at 2-4 in the division.
Outside the division, they host the Giants, Seattle, Dallas, Denver, and Oakland. Seattle and Oakland should be pretty easy games and they could win one of the other three at home so 3-2 is reasonable here. However, they also have to go to Chicago, Washington, Philadelphia, Kansas City, and San Diego. That’s 4 teams I have in the playoffs, including a San Diego team that is almost unbeatable in December at home. Anything from 6 to 8 wins would not surprise me at all, but I think they’re still a year away from being a playoff team, especially in the tougher of the two conferences, the NFC, and in a tough division.
Projection: 7-9 3rd in AFC South
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