Oakland Raiders extend S Tyvon Branch

The Raiders resigned franchise player Tyvon Branch today and did so at a rate cheaper than guys like Eric Weedle, Michael Griffin, and teammate Michael Huff have signed for in the last calendar year. All 3 of those guys got between 4-5 years at a rate of between 7-8 million per year, between 32-40 million maximum money, and between 15-19 million guaranteed money. Branch, meanwhile, got 4 years, 26.6 million, though with a whopping 17.1 million guaranteed.

Branch is a talented player who ranked only behind Troy Polamalu on ProFootballFocus against the run and he’s improving in coverage. The Raiders needed to get a deal done to free up some cap space, but credit them for getting it done without having to get desperate and giving Branch a new deal he didn’t deserve. My one issue is just how much of this contract is guaranteed.

Grade: B

Houston Texans 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 14, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Texans

Offense

The Texans broke out in 2011, won the AFC South with 10 wins, and made the playoffs for the 1^st time in their franchise’s still short history. What’s even more impressive is the fact that they did this despite their quarterback and their #1 (and only good) wide receiver only playing in the same game together 4 times, thanks to injuries. When Matt Schaub went down, this team was 7-3 and a contender for the AFC’s #1 seed. A 4^th ranked scoring defense (17.4 points per game) and a 2^nd ranked rushing offense (2448 yards) carried this team to the AFC semis and if they can get their once strong passing game going again this year, they could be incredibly dangerous.

At the same time, the Texans lost a lot this offseason and might not be able to compensate. Mario Williams is the obvious name because he signed for almost 100 million dollars in Houston, but he missed 11 games last year and the Texans still allowed the 4^th fewest points and had the 6^th most sacks (44). Youngsters Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin stepped up big time in his absence and first round pick Whitney Mercilus, who I think was the best pass rusher of the 2012 NFL Draft class, will also be in the mix this season.

The more important losses will be Jason Allen, an important, versatile defensive back, Joel Dreessen, a talented 2^nd string tight end who played a lot as the Texans used many two-tight end sets, DeMeco Ryans, a starting middle linebacker, as well as Mike Briesel and Eric Winston, their starting right guard and starting right tackle respectively on what was an incredibly strong offensive line. They’ll try to replace those guys in various ways that I’ll get into, but they’ll miss those 5. Still, in arguably the weakest division in the NFL, the Texans have a clear path to their 2^nd straight division title and playoff appearance.

Quarterback

One other concern that Texans fans should have is their quarterback, Matt Schaub. That may sound weird as a few years ago Schaub was one of the league’s leaders in yards on a non-playoff team that couldn’t stop anyone, but even the Texans have concerns about Schaub. That’s why they haven’t given him a long term extension as he heads into a contract year. If he plays well, they’ll happily franchise tag him and work out a long term extension with him next offseason, but there are concerns.

The first is that he’s 31 and has NEVER PLAYED IN THE PLAYOFFS. That hasn’t always been his fault, but he’s had some less than stellar performance in big games and close games and you have to question his leadership, even if only a little, and wonder if he’s not Tony Romo with a better PR team. He’s also been very injury prone, which is part of why he’s never played in a playoff game (had he been healthy last year, he would have). That’s their other concern. Schaub has missed at least 5 games in 3 of the last 5 seasons. TJ Yates is a decent backup, but if the Texans want to have any chance of winning the Super Bowl, Schaub has to stay healthy. My money is still on Schaub staying mostly healthy and playing in at least one playoff game this season, but the concerns are there.

It’s interesting how Schaub’s role with the team has changed from 2009-2010 to now as the team’s style of play has changed. In 2009 and 2010, Schaub threw for 4770 yards and 4370 yards respectively for a 9 win and a 6 win team respectively. Last year, however, he was on pace for 3966 yards for a team that was 7-3 when he went down. The Texans’ 546 carries were tied for most with Denver, a team whose starting quarterback ranked 39^th in the league in carries himself.

Schaub has always been a talented quarterback who has completed 64.3% of his career passes for 7.9 YPA, 98 touchdowns, and 58 interceptions in his career. He’s fully capable of staying healthy for 16 games and leading a very strong supporting cast to 12 wins. He just needs to actually do it. As strange as it may sound for a 31 year old quarterback, Schaub may be more potential than substance. He has the potential to be an elite quarterback, but you can’t put him there if he’s never played in a playoff game.

Grade: B

Running Backs

I’ve already mentioned how much the Texans love to run and how good at it they are. Last year, they ran 546 times and passed just 467 times. Only Denver had a bigger disparity and only Denver and San Francisco joined them in running more often than they passed (Miami had an exactly equally split). This wasn’t just when Matt Schaub went down. In 10 games with Schaub, they passed 292 times and ran 357 times, as opposed to 230 passes and 254 runs in the 8 games without Schaub (including playoffs).

Having a strong defense will allow them to this again. Arian Foster, barring injury, should be among the league leaders in carries for the 3^rd straight year (1^st in 2010 and 6^th in 2011, despite missing 3 games with injury), while Ben Tate will be one of the most often used backups in the league. He’ll obviously be a valuable handcuff in fantasy football if Foster gets hurt. Both are incredibly talented and good fits for their blocking scheme.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Speaking of their blocking scheme, one thing that could hold the Texans back from running as well as they did last year is the fact that they lost two starting offensive linemen. They were backed up against the cap and had to let right guard Mike Brisiel and right tackle Eric Winston go. Both were talented players, but the Texans believe in their blocking scheme and believe they can coach up unheralded players and make them into starters, as they have done in the past. On their strong line in 2011, only one player was drafted before the 3^rd round.

Being plugged into their offensive line is right guard Antoine Caldwell and right tackle Rashad Butler. Neither has much experience nor do they have much success, but the Texans believe they can coach them up. If either slips up, 3^rd round rookie Brandon Brooks could be plugged in at either spot, while Derek Newton could be plugged in at right tackle, where the 2011 7^th round pick is more natural than Brooks.

Luckily, the Texans did not lose 3 offensive linemen this offseason. At one point, it looked like center Chris Myers was also a goner. However, the Texans were able to bring him back, which is great news because, with a 32.6 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ highest rated center in 2011 by a pretty wide margin. He was solid as a pass protector, allowing 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures, but where he’s especially great is as a run blocker. No offensive lineman at any position graded out within 7 points of Myers as a run blocker on ProFootballFocus last year. He’s heading into his age 31 season, but I see no reason why he’ll slip up.

The only offensive lineman of the bunch who was selected before the 3^rd round is left tackle Duane Brown, who was a 1^st round pick in 2008, which makes sense since this is the most important position on the offensive line. Brown has lived up to his draft range. He was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th rated offensive tackle last season. He was the only starting offensive tackle in the league not to surrender a single sack, though he did allow 4 quarterback hits and 23 quarterback pressures and graded out slightly below average as a run blocker. He only committed 4 penalties as well.

The one returning weak link on the offensive line is left guard Wade Smith. I bet the Texans are wishing that it was him that left this offseason rather than Brisiel or Winston. Because they had two offensive lineman to replace, they couldn’t replace Smith even if they wanted to. He had a -20.5 rating last year, good for 70^th at his position out of 76. He was alright as a pass protector, allowing 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures, but he was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated run blocker at his position. Very strangely, he was 4^th rated overall at his position in 2010. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like that. Maybe he’ll bounce back.

Grade: B+

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

As Matt Schaub is known for being injury prone, so is his top wide receiver. Since 2007, he’s missed at least 3 games in 3 of 5 seasons and 19 games overall. He played a career low 7 games last year and now all of a sudden he’s in his age 31 season. He’s incredibly talented when healthy with 706 catches for 9656 yards and 52 touchdowns in his career and he’s had 100+ catches in his last 3 full 16 game seasons, but the Texans made it a priority of their offseason to add more talent in their receiver corps around him, as well as potential future successors as the team’s #1 receiver as even elite wide receivers like Johnson aren’t elite much past age 33 or 34.

The Texans used 3^rd and 4^th round picks on receivers, selecting DeVier Posey and Keshawn Martin. They also have 2011 undrafted free agent Lester Jean, who has drawn rave reviews this offseason and could be due for a breakout year. I haven’t heard more good things about any player who has never had an impact in the NFL whatsoever than I have about Jean, for what that’s worth.

Of course, all 3 of those guys are currently behind veteran Kevin Walter on the depth chart, though that might not be the case week 1 or mid season as one or more of the aforementioned young guys could leap him on the depth chart at some point. Given what I’ve heard about Martin and Posey, I think it’s more likely that Jean will be the one to leap him. Martin and Posey are very raw and have been underwhelming in offseason practices. They’ll have impacts in 2013 and beyond if they ever do.

Walter, meanwhile, is the definition of mediocre. He’s tall and is a big target in the red zone, but he’s never been able to establish himself as a productive receiver and he caught just 39 passes for 474 yards and 3 touchdowns last year despite Andre Johnson’s frequent absences. Heading into his age 31 season, he’s not getting any better. When Johnson was out last year, the Texans really struggled to find another capable wide receiver. They have some upside guys, but none are sure things to be any better than what they had last year. Andre Johnson will need to remain healthy and remain his usual 80+/1200+/7+ touchdown self.

The one thing the Texans do have going for them is tight end Owen Daniels. Daniels too has had some injury issues in the past, missing 13 games from 2009-2010, but he played in 15 games last year and had 54 catches for 677 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Texans love to use a lot of two-tight end sets, no surprise given how much they like to run.

Joel Dreessen was their #2 tight end last year and he’s gone. An excellent and underrated overall tight end, he’ll be missed. Including playoffs, he played 817 snaps and was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th rated tight end last year so they’ll need someone to replace him. The Texans believe 2010 4^th round Garrett Graham is capable of doing so and will give him the job, but he’s incredibly inexperienced so I have my doubts. Overall, while they’ve lost players, things should be better offensively in 2012 than in 2011, when they still somehow managed to rank 10^th in the league with 23.8 points per game. This is, of course, barring major injuries to Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson.

Grade: B

Defense

After ranking a putrid 29^th in the league with 26.7 points per game allowed in 2010, the Texans improved all the way to 4^th in the league with 17.4 points per game allowed. Adding Wade Phillips as the defensive coordinator made a huge difference, but you can’t forget the addition of guys like Johnathan Joseph and Danieal Manning through free agency, JJ Watt and Brooks Reed through the draft, and DeMeco Ryans and Connor Barwin returning from injury. As good of a defensive coordinator as Phillips is, there wouldn’t have been much he could have done if they still had the lack of talent they had in 2010. Even with the loss of Mario Williams this offseason, they should still be a very strong defense this year.

Defensive Line

As good as their defense is, no one on the squad had a rating on ProFootballFocus higher than JJ Watt, who had a 33.2 rating and ranked 4^th at his position. He was equally great against the run as he was as a pass rusher, with 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 30 quarterback pressures (including playoffs), good for a 9.3% rate on 557 pass rush snaps. He also had a pick six in their playoff victory over the Bengals. Oh, and did I mention he was a rookie? He has the look of a perennial Pro Bowler.

Opposite him, the Texans got a surprise year from Antonio Smith. Smith, a career journeyman and mediocre starter, actually ranked 7^th at his position with a 12.1 rating last year. He was the definition of “good pass rusher/bad run stuffer,” ranking 2^nd at his position behind only Justin Smith as a pass rusher, but ranking dead last as a run stuffer. He had 8 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 35 quarterback pressures on 544 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.8%, very strong for his position. His 11 penalties need to be cleaned up, however.

Sometimes, on clear running downs, the Texans rotate in Tim Jamison, a solid run stuffer who is a strong backup at all 3 defensive line positions in the Texans’ 3-4. At nose tackle, the Texans rotate in two mediocre players primarily, Shaun Cody and Earl Mitchell. That position may be their biggest weakness on defense, but they use a lot of base packages so the nose tackle position isn’t that important in their scheme. They also used a 4^th round pick on Jared Crick, who figures to see some snaps as a situational player as a rookie.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

While JJ Watt and Antonio Smith are great pass rushers, they’re not the only reason why the Texans managed 44 sacks last year, despite missing Mario Williams for every game except 5. Brooks Reed, a 2011 2^nd round pick, and Connor Barwin, a 2009 2^nd round pick, both got great pressure on the quarterback last season, with Reed doing so as a rookie and Barwin doing so in his 1^st year off of a major injury and despite having minimal previous experience in the NFL.

Barwin managed 12 sacks, 19 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 598 pass rush snaps, good for a 9.9% rate, while Reed had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures on 471 pass rush snaps, good for a 8.9% rate. The Texans drafted Whitney Mercilus in the 1^st round to rotate with these guys and he should have an immediate impact as a situation pass rusher. I thought he was the best pass rusher in this draft class and that he could have an Aldon Smith esque rookie season with enough playing time.

As weird as it may sound, the Texans won’t really miss Mario Williams, who they played very well without last season. Reed, meanwhile, may see some snaps at middle linebacker, another position where he could be a fit. He’s stronger against the run than he is as a pass rusher and can hold his own in coverage.

Reed may be needed at middle linebacker because the Texans traded away DeMeco Ryans. Ryans, a former Pro Bowler, played pretty well last year, but was never as good of a fit in a 3-4 as he was in a 4-3 and with the team pressed up against the cap, they sold him to the Eagles for cap relief, a 4^th round pick, and a swap of 3^rd round picks.

In his absence, the Texans are expected to platoon Bradie James and Darryl Sharpton. James has experience in Phillips’ scheme from Dallas and Phillips thinks the world of him and may even make him their defensive signal caller when he’s on the field, but he was only a mediocre situational player in Dallas last year and he’s heading into his age 31 season so it’s an obvious downgrade. Sharpton, meanwhile, was a 4^th round pick in 2010. Al Sharpton’s nephew, Darryl is inexperienced, but expected to see some snaps at middle linebacker this year. And, as I’ve mentioned, we could see Reed here some as well.

Whoever plays at that middle linebacker spot will be playing next to one of the best in the business, Brian Cushing. Cushing made a seamless transition from 4-3 outside linebacker to 3-4 inside linebacker last year, earning himself a 24.8 rating on ProFootballFocus, good for 4^th at his position. Cushing is very strong in all 3 facets of the game, covering well, stopping the run well, and even contributing as a blitzer. No middle linebacker was sent on a blitz more often last year than Cushing, who blitzed 225 times and picked up 4 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures, good for a very impressive 15.6% rate.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

In the secondary, Johnathan Joseph was as advertised, after signing a 48.75 million dollar deal over 5 years to go from the Bengals to the Texans last offseason. He was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked cornerback last year, struggling some against the run, but ranking 4^th in coverage. Joseph allowed 51 completions on 91 attempts (56.0%) for 602 yards (6.6 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while deflecting 10 passes and only committing 2 penalties. Among eligible cornerbacks (75% of team’s snaps), he was 2^nd in QB rating allowed.

Opposite him, however, could be a problem. Jason Allen is gone. He really stabilized things, playing slot cornerback, outside cornerback, and even some safety. He allowed 39 completions on 77 attempts (50.6%) for 457 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 2 penalties.

With him gone, Kareem Jackson is going to be expected to step up. The 2010 1^st round pick is bordering on bust. He’s been terrible in coverage in each of his first 2 years in the league. Last year, he allowed 38 completions on 62 attempts (61.3%) for 646 yards (10.4 YPA), 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 5 penalties. He was good against the run, 5^th at his position in fact, but he ranked 84^th at his position, out of 98, in coverage and had a -5.0 overall rating. He’ll need to step up in his 3^rd year and be a solid full time starter, otherwise he could find himself replaced after the season. If he slips up, Brice McCain could step into the starting lineup. Luckily for them, McCain looks like a budding star.

McCain was 8^th at his position in terms of his rating in coverage, despite playing just 482 snaps, and 2^nd at his position in QB rating allowed, among eligible cornerbacks (25% of team’s snaps). He allowed 24 completions on 51 attempts (47.1%) for 251 yards (4.9 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 2 deflections, while deflecting 9 passes and committing 3 penalties. The 2009 6^th round pick appears to have a bright future. The Texans also have 2011 2^nd round pick Brandon Harris in the mix, but he barely played as a rookie, playing 28 snaps, and he’s behind McCain on the depth chart right now.

At safety, the Texans also have another nice offseason addition from the 2011 offseason, Danieal Manning. Manning is a solid safety who is better in coverage than against the run. Next to him, however, Glover Quin really struggled last year. With a -8.3 rating, he was their worst starter last year and he somehow played more snaps than anyone on the team. Unless 2011 5^th round pick Shiloh Keo, who also only played 28 snaps as a rookie, can step up, the Texans don’t appear to have a replacement handy. This may be a position they focus on in the 2013 NFL Draft. Overall defensively, they have a very strong bunch and could easily be a top-5 scoring defense again.

Grade: B

Head Coach

After making the playoffs last year, Gary Kubiak went from a man perennially on the list of guys talked about as candidates to get fired to a guy who was a Coach of the Year candidate. Hiring Wade Phillips definitely helped and the calls for his job were legitimate as the team annually missed the playoffs, but he’s got the talent now to win 10+ games for at least the next few years and if he does that, he’ll have plenty of job security.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Texans have lost a lot, but they’re so talented that they can make up for it. They were 7-3 when Schaub went down last year and 10-3 at one point before dropping their final 3. They made it to the AFC Semis with a backup quarterback. Even when Schaub was healthy, his #1 receiver was not. They run the ball incredibly well and play strong defense, but also can air it out when necessary, so long as Schaub and Johnson are healthy.

When Schaub went down, they had 273 points scored and 166 points allowed, meaning they were averaging 27.3 points per game and allowing 16.6 and that’s over 10 games, a good sample size. That’s insane. That would have made them the 5^th ranked offense and the 3^rd ranked defense (tied with Baltimore), easily the only team in the league in the top-5 in both categories.

If you extrapolate those averages over 16 games, that’s 437 points for and 267 points against, which would have been the 4^th highest differential in the NFL behind Green Bay, New Orleans, and New England. That would have given them a Pythagorean Expectation of 12.20 wins, which would have been 2^nd behind only San Francisco’s 12.30. Speaking of Pythagorean Expectation, they were the only team in the league to win 10+ games and not exceed their Pythagorean Expectation. Their Pythagorean Expectation was 10.86 wins, good for 7^th in the NFL.

My only tiny concern with them is that they regress, that their miss the players they lost more than expected, that the Schaub/Kubiak duo reverts to old habits of losing, or that Schaub and/or Johnson get hurt. However, my money is on Schaub having a strong year, winning 12 games, quarterbacking one of the most complete teams in the NFL heading into the playoffs, getting franchise tagged and getting an extension on par with the Eli Mannings or the Ben Roethlisbergers or the Philip Rivers of the world in the offseason.

Schedule wise, things actually look pretty easy. The AFC is the significantly weaker conference and they may play in the weakest division in the league aside from them. They went 4-2 in the division last year, 3-0 before the Schaub injury and could easily go 5-1 or so this year. Outside of the division, they play host to Miami, Green Bay, Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Minnesota. 3 of those games are incredibly easy and I think they can give both Green Bay and Baltimore runs for their money in Houston. 4-1 in those games seems right, putting them at 9-2 in the 11 games I’ve mentioned so far.

Their other 5 games send them to Denver, New York to play the Jets, Chicago, Detroit, and New England. That New England game is going to be very tough as the Patriots almost never lose at home, but they’re better than the other 4 teams so they should be able to get at least the 3-2 needed to round their record out at 12-4.

Projection: 12-4 1^st in AFC South

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Cleveland Browns 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 14, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Browns

Offense

Poor Browns. The franchise has not made the playoffs since 2002 and in the 9 seasons since, they’ve lost double digit games in 8 of 9 seasons, 11+ in 7 of 9 seasons, and finished in last place in 7 of 9 seasons. Last season was no different as a popular sleeper team heading into the season finished 4-12. Coming off a promising rookie year, Colt McCoy regressed, in large part due to the lack of supporting cast he had. Madden cover boy Peyton Hillis got hurt and struggled when on the field, leaving them with zero offensive playmakers. They finished 4-12.

Things didn’t get much better in the offseason as the Browns failed to sign any major free agents, failed to trade up for Robert Griffin, and missed out on Kendall Wright, who they were targeting at pick 22. The Browns were forced to settle for Brandon Weeden, a soon to be 29 year old quarterback, who the Browns were planning on targeting either late in the 1^st after trading up or with their 2^nd round pick.

Offensively, the Browns were the worst team in the league, in my opinion. Both Kansas City (13.3) and St. Louis (12.1) did score fewer points than them, but the Browns were a close 3^rd with 13.6 points per game. However, the Browns did this despite nailing 7 field goals of 50+ yards and turning the ball over a mere 19 times. Turnovers are pretty unpredictable on a yearly basis. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games.

That difference could be even more pronounced for the Browns this year. Colt McCoy was a very physically limited quarterback, but he rarely turned the ball over. In 685 career throws, he threw just 20 interceptions, a rate of 2.9%. Of course, he threw the same amount of touchdowns, an incredibly low rate, but their turnovers will go up this season. Weeden, as opposed to McCoy, has all the physical tools, but can be very erratic with the football.

Still, Weeden is an upgrade at quarterback overall and the Browns also upgraded the running back position with Trent Richardson. Those additions will cancel out the increase in turnovers, but anyone expecting them to be greatly improved over the 13.6 points per game they scored last year doesn’t understand that that figure was not a completely accurate representation of how bad they were offensively last year. They’re upgraded, sure, but they still have tons of problems.

Quarterback

The Browns currently have two notable quarterbacks on their roster, Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden. McCoy was the starting quarterback for their terrible offense last year and Weeden is the 1^st round pick brought in to replace him. Weeden turns 29 this season so the Browns want to get him on the field as quickly as possible. He’s fully expected to be their week 1 quarterback and the Browns are very publicly shopping McCoy on the cheap.

McCoy was awful last year, but had no help. He’s still young and cheap and has more experience than most quarterbacks his age, so, at the price of a late rounder, he’ll be a tempting option for teams who are not satisfied with their backup quarterback. He’s an above average backup and will get traded at some point in Training Camp. If not, the Browns will probably cut him as he’s still popular in the locker room and they don’t want Weeden looking over his back shoulder should he struggle as a rookie.

And I do think Weeden will struggle. Recent seasons by quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and others have told us the contrary, but quarterbacks don’t normally have strong rookie seasons. Weeden may be 29 in October (older than Aaron Rodgers), but he’s not quite as NFL ready as some of the rookies in recent years have been.

He comes out of a spread offense and will have to learn how to play in Pat Shurmur’s West Coast offense. He also can be overconfident in his arm and struggles under pressure. Finally, he comes out of a conference that has not produced successful quarterbacks over the past decade (only 3 non-rookie NFL starters are from the Big 12: Josh Freeman, Sam Bradford, and Blaine Gabbert, who have played in a combined 0 playoff games). He’ll lead this team on more scoring drives than Colt McCoy did, but also turn the ball over a lot and I don’t see a successful rookie year in his future, especially with a poor offensive supporting cast.

Grade: C

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Bengals have a lot of recent high draft picks in their receiving corps, but they’re all raw at best. Their top 4 receivers, in some order, will be Greg Little, a 2011 2^nd round pick, Mohamed Massaquoi, a 2009 2^nd round pick, Travis Benjamin, a 2012 4^th round pick, and Josh Gordon, a 2^nd round pick in the 2012 supplemental draft. Massaquoi showed a lot of promise as a rookie, leading the team with 34 catches for 624 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, he’s managed just 67 catches for 867 yards and 4 touchdowns in the 2 seasons since. It’s time to stop expecting a breakout season that doesn’t seem to be coming.

Massaquoi will still start, sadly. He’ll start opposite Greg Little. Little was their leading receiver with 61 catches for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns last year, but he was 2^nd in the league in drops with 14 and managed a pathetic 6.3 yards per target. Only one wide receiver graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus. However, he was very raw last season as a 2^nd round rookie who didn’t play at all in 2010 and who never had big time production in college. He should be better in 2012 and the buzz around him this offseason has been positive with some even suggesting he could be a Pro Bowl caliber player this year with an upgrade at quarterback. He’s certainly got that kind of upside, but he could still be very raw.

The other two receivers I mentioned are both rookies. Travis Benjamin was a 4^th round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He’s fast and a deadly returner, but there’s a reason he was available in the 4^th round. He’s incredibly raw as a receiver. He’ll sadly line up in the slot. Josh Gordon, meanwhile, recently was a 2^nd round pick in the supplemental draft. He’s got more upside and talent than Benjamin, but he’s also been out of football for almost 2 years and hasn’t had the benefit of OTAs and minicamps that other receivers have had.

Rookie wide receivers almost always take a year or so to adjust to the speed of the NFL, but Gordon could really struggle with that as a rookie, as well as with the playbook. If he ever has an impact, it’ll be in 2013 and beyond. I expect him to be their 4^th receiver this season, but after Little, the next 3 guys could conceivably line up in any order on the depth chart.

The Browns also have a good number of tight ends that they’ll use. Ben Watson had a strong year in 2010 with 68 catches for 763 yards and 3 touchdowns, but in 2011, he caught just 37 passes for 410 yards and 2 touchdowns. Heading into his age 32 season, his best years are behind him. Evan Moore has never been a starter, but you can definitely argue that he’s deserved more playing time than he’s gotten over the past few years. Over the past 3 years, Moore actually ranks 10^th in yards per route run. He’s not much of a blocker, but he deserves more playing time than an aged Watson. He figures to be underutilized again this season. 2011 4^th round pick Jordan Cameron, an athletic but raw player, also figures to be in the mix, as does veteran Alex Smith. They caught 6 and 14 balls last year respectively.

Grade: C

Running Backs

One thing the Browns should be able to do pretty well is run the football. The Browns traded up to get Trent Richardson in the 2012 NFL Draft. Rookie running backs don’t have a recent history of success as 1^st round backs have averaged just 165 carries in their rookie year since 2007. However, Richardson is probably more talented than any of those backs, with the exception of Adrian Peterson. A true 3 down back, Richardson doesn’t have a single flaw and only injuries can stop him from being a Pro Bowl caliber back at some point in his career. Along with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and David DeCastro, Richardson is one of the few players who I think will be among the top-10 at their position as a rookie.

One concern for the Browns has to be their depth. There is some concern with injuries with Richardson because of his position and because rookie running backs do seem to have trouble adjusting from a 12 or 13 game schedule to a 16 game schedule. Their #2 back is Brandon Jackson, a veteran who is good as a pass protector and pass catcher, but heading into his age 27 season, Jackson has a career 3.8 YPC on 347 carries. Chris Ogbonnaya and Montario Hardesty will compete to be the #3 back. Neither of those guys had much success when counted on last season.

Grade: B+

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Offensive Line

Like every other group on their offense, their offensive line was also a problem last season. I think they did more to fix their offensive line problems than they did to fix their quarterback or wide receiver problems, but not nearly as much as they did to fix their running backs problems. The new addition is 2^nd round rookie Mitchell Schwartz, who is expected to start at right tackle.

Schwartz was a bit of a peculiar selection ahead of players such as Jonathan Martin and Cordy Glenn, but he’s a good player who should be a solid starter at right tackle. He’s a rookie, however, so it’s unreasonable to expect a lot of him right away. He should still be an upgrade over Tony Pashos, the incumbent who is currently still available as a free agent as of this writing. Pashos allowed 7 sacks, but was actually a pretty solid pass protector, allowing just 15 pressures and no quarterback hits. He was penalized 6 times. His biggest weakness was as a run blocker. As a rookie, Schwartz should be the exact opposite type of player.

Solid as pass blockers and poor as run blockers was a theme upfront for the Browns. The 39 sacks they allowed last year wasn’t too bad, good for 19^th out of 32 teams, but they struggled to open things up on the ground. They were ProFootballFocus’ 11^th ranked pass blocking team and 20^th ranked run blocking team. The biggest problem was their guards.

With Eric Steinbach missing the whole season with a back injury, the Browns were forced to start Shawn Lauvao and Jason Pinkston at guard. Lauvao, a 2010 3^rd round pick, has never done well as a starter. Last year, he allowed 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures, committed 11 penalties and struggled as a run blocker. He had a -8.5 rating on ProFootballFocus. Pinkston, a 5^th round rookie last year, was even worse, with a -19.5 rating, ranked 69^th among 76 guard on ProFootballFocus. He allowed 1 sack, 10 quarterback hits, and 24 quarterback pressures, committed 4 penalties and was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst rated run blocking guard.

Steinbach has not been brought back after his back injury and is still available on the open market. He may have to retire. The Browns didn’t bring in any upgrades. It’s possible 5^th round rookie Ryan Miller could have to step into the lineup, but that wouldn’t be a good thing. Pinkston and Lauvao are still young and could improve, but it’s still a position of major weakness.

Sandwiched between those two guards is center Alex Mack. Mack is one of two bright spots on the Browns’ offensive line. He was ProFootballFocus’ 9^th rated center last year with a 7.3 rating. Joe Thomas is the other bright spot. Thomas is one of the league’s premier offensive tackles and has been since being the 3^rd overall pick in 2007, but last year was actually a bit of a down year for him.

He was ProFootballFocus’ 10^th ranked offensive tackle, which is pretty good for a down year, but it was a down year nonetheless. In 2010, he ranked 8^th and in 2009 he ranked 2^nd. He’s been ProFootballFocus’ highest rated pass blocking offensive tackle over the past 3 years. Last year, he was their 1^st ranked pass blocking offensive tackle, allowing just 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, but 9 penalties hurt his rating, as did his play as a run blocker. He’s been better as a run blocker in the past though.

Overall, it’s a pretty mixed bag upfront for the Browns. Joe Thomas and Alex Mack are among the best at their respective positions, while both of their guards struggled last year, and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz is an unknown commodity. Overall, they figure to be better in pass protection than as run blockers again. The bad news is, overall, the Browns still really like talent offensively unless Weeden can have a strong rookie year, which I don’t expect.

Grade: B-

Defense

The Browns’ defense is the only reason why the Browns won any games last season. They ranked 5^th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5^th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21^st against the run with 4.4 YPC. However, they were just 2 points per game away from being 13^th in terms of scoring and .2 YPA away from being 13^th in terms of pass defense. Their ranks are a bit misleading in those two categories as they were on top of big chunks of teams with similar numbers.

They also only managed 32 sacks, with only one player managing more than 6 sacks. Furthermore, an in depth look at their defense (which I’ll get into) shows a lack of talent relative to where they ranked last year. The good news is that they did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

Defensive Line

Their most talented defensive lineman is defensive end Jabaal Sheard, who was their only pass rusher with more than 6 sacks last season. Sheard, a mere 2^nd round rookie, had 9 sacks, as well as 4 quarterback hits and 42 quarterback pressures. On 494 pass rushes, that was good for a rate of 11.3%. He has a bright future. Ahytba Rubin was 2^nd on the team in sacks with 6. The defensive tackle also had 5 quarterback hits and 17 quarterback pressures on 486 pass rushes, good for a rate of 5.8%. He was also good against the run and finished with an 8.9 rating on ProFootballFocus.

The other two spots on the defensive line are weaknesses. Phil Taylor, who was alright as a 1^st round rookie last year, had a bright future going into his 2^nd season this year, but the defensive tackle tore his pectoral in the offseason and could miss the entire season. Even if he’s good to go late in the season, the Browns won’t bring him back and risk further injury if they’re out of the playoff race, which I expect them to be.

In his absence, the Browns have 3 players competing for the starting spot. All 3 of Scott Paxson, Billy Winn, and John Hughes could see significant snaps at the position. Paxson is a veteran run stuffer, who doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, while Hughes and Winn are 3^rd and 6^th round rookies respectively. Hughes was a major reach in the 3^rd round. No one expected him to go that high, not even Hughes himself. He didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft because he didn’t expect to go anywhere above the 4^th round. Winn, on the other hand, was a steal in the 6^th round. He was actually a consensus higher rated player than Hughes was before the draft.

The 4^th defensive lineman last year was Jayme Mitchell, but he was awful. With a -15.3 rating, only one defensive end graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus and he was the worst pass rusher by more than 6 points. On 376 pass rushes, he had 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback sacks, good for a pathetic rate of 4.0%.

He’s gone, but the Browns replaced him with an equally pathetic pass rusher. Frostee Rucker, previously of the Bengals, managed 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 215 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 5.1%. That somehow made him deserving of a 20.5 million dollar deal over 5 years. He’s a solid run stopper, who ranked 12^th on ProFootballFocus last year in that facet, but that hardly makes him worth that kind of money, especially since he was just a situational player last year. He’ll play some defensive tackle on passing downs.

On passing downs, Juqua Parker will come in after signing a 3 million dollar deal coming over from Philadelphia. Parker was a good situational pass rusher last year, but he played only 262 snaps last year. On 146 pass rush snaps, he had 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 13.7%, but added snaps could cause him to struggle more in Cleveland this year. He’s also 34. For those keeping score, they’ll be paying Frostee Rucker and Juqua Parker 7 million combined this year. For that kind of money, they could have actually signed a good defensive end, provided one actually wanted to come to Cleveland.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Browns resigned one of, if not their best defensive player, D’Qwell Jackson, this offseason. However, they really overpaid for him. Middle linebackers were greeted with a cold market this offseason with guys like David Hawthrone signing for 19 million over 5 years, Curtis Lofton signing for 27.5 million over 5 years, and Stephen Tulloch signing for 25.5 million over 5 years. The Browns locked up Jackson before free agency for a whopping 42.5 million over 5 years, which looks ridiculous now.

Nonetheless, the Browns do have a great player signed. When healthy, Jackson is one of the league’s best middle linebackers. Last year, he played in all 16 games and rated 8^th at his position on ProFootballFocus with an 18.4 rating. The problem is he’s injury prone. Before last year, he missed 26 games in the previous 2 seasons. He’s had some injuries this offseason too, so it’s a situation Browns fans should worry about.

The Browns are already missing one linebacker. Scott Fujita has been suspended for the first 3 games of the season for his role in BountyGate. Fujita signed from the Saints last offseason and there was no way for them to know he would eventually be suspended so this is just bad luck on the Browns’ part (what else is new). Fujita is a decent player, but also heading into his age 33 season. In his absence, Kaluka Maiava is expected to start. Maiava did that last year when Fujita missed time with injury and he was solid.

Rounding out the linebacking corps is Chris Gocong, who is pretty bad. He was originally signed to play in the Browns’ 3-4, but when they switched to a 4-3 last year, he was not a fit and struggled equally against the run and in coverage. He could be pushed by Maiava or 4^th round rookie James-Michael Johnson in the middle of the season.

Grade: B-

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Secondary

The Browns’ secondary is headlined by 3^rd year player Joe Haden. Haden has been a shutdown cornerback ever since the Browns inserted him into the starting lineup late in 2010, after using the 7^th overall pick on him in the 2010 NFL Draft. He was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th ranked cornerback in coverage, a big part of why the Browns were so good against the pass last year, and he also played the run well as well.

Last season, he allowed 42 completions on 85 attempts (49.4%) for 657 yards (7.7 YPA) and 3 touchdowns. He didn’t have an interception, but it’s not like he didn’t have chances as he was tied for the league lead with 17 pass deflections. I’ve already mentioned that the Browns figure to have more takeaways in 2012, based on history. Haden turning a few of those deflections into interceptions is an obvious way that can happen. His one weakness was that he was penalized 9 times, but he’s a great overall cornerback. He’s never made a Pro Bowl, but he’ll be a perennial Pro Bowler once people realize how good he is and he might not even be at his best yet, which is scary. He’s not even 24 until next April.

Opposite him, Sheldon Brown also played very well. Brown allowed just 35 completions on 76 attempts (46.1%) for 485 yards (6.4 YPA), 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, with 8 deflections and 4 penalties. He did struggle against the run, however, but among eligible cornerbacks (60% of team’s snaps) last year, he had the 6^th lowest QB rating against, even lower than Haden’s (interceptions really help bring the rating down, which is why Haden’s wasn’t that low). The issue with Brown, however, is that he’s going into his age 33 season. There was speculation that he could be cut or moved to safety this offseason. It seems like he’ll start the year as their #2 cornerback, but he could decline sharply at any time.

If that happens, the Browns wouldn’t have a lot of options. Dimitri Patterson played well on the slot last year and was rewarded with a 3 year, 16.05 million dollar deal this offseason, but he really struggled in 2010 with the Eagles as a starter, ranking 99^th among 100 cornerbacks on ProFootballFocus that year. I wouldn’t expect him to play well if he has to start. Meanwhile, their dime back will either be 2011 6^th round pick Buster Skrine, who played 124 snaps last year, or Trevin Wade, a rookie 7^th round pick. I wouldn’t expect either of them to be able to step in and play well in the starting lineup either. They have to hope Brown holds up another year and then they can focus on the position in the 2013 draft or in free agency.

At safety, the Browns lost one starter this offseason as Mike Adams signed with the Broncos. Replacing him will be either Usama Young, who played well in relief of an injured TJ Ward last season, or Eric Hagg, an inexperienced 2011 7^th round pick. Ward, meanwhile, is back, for now at least. The 2010 2^nd round pick has had a history of injuries dating back to his days at the University of Oregon. When healthy, he’s an above average safety who is better against the run than in coverage.

As you can see, the talent isn’t really there defensively as much as their ranks from 2011 would suggest. They have one very talented player in each level of the defense in Jabaal Sheard, D’Qwell Jackson, and Joe Haden, but other than it, it’s pretty hit or miss. Also, while they ranked highly in key categories last year, they were also very close to ranking middle of the pack in those same categories. They should force more turnovers than last year, but they’re not an elite defense. Their defense will win them some games, but the offense will have to perform if they’re even going to be average overall as a team.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Pat Shurmur has only one year of Head Coaching experience, going 4-12 last year, but Team President Mike Holmgren, who also happens to be a Super Bowl winning former Head Coach, is a big fan of him. Holmgren brought him in personally and gave Shurmur a vote of confidence this offseason. Also, when Shurmur didn’t want Colt McCoy any more, the Browns brought in Brandon Weeden, even though Holmgren was a fan of McCoy, who he selected in the 3^rd round in 2010. I don’t know if that makes him a good coach, but he could have 2 years or so of job security even if they continue to be a last place team.

Grade: C+

Overall

The Browns have been one of the league’s worst teams over the past 10 years and things don’t look like they’ll turn around this season. They were awful offensively last year and the mere 13.6 points per game they averaged last season don’t even illustrate just how poor they were on that side of the ball. Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson are upgrades and they have some upside in their receiver corps, but overall their offense looks devoid of talent once again. If Brandon Weeden can have a strong rookie year, that will make a huge difference as quarterback is the most important position on the field, but I’m not a fan.

Defensively, they are better, if only by default. They should be able to win some games because of their defense once again, but they weren’t really as good as the 5^th place rank of their scoring defense would suggest as they were actually closer to 13^th place than 4^th in terms of points per game allowed. The same thing is true with their 5^th ranked passing defense. A closer look at their defensive talent shows an average defense at best.

They could be better than they were last year, but they could also be worse. In terms of talent, they are one of the worst teams in the league so anything from 2-6 wins is possible after a 4 win season last year. I have them at 3-13, because that’s just how it worked out. Their schedule is pretty tough and they play in a tough division.

Last year, they went 0-6 in their division. I think Cincinnati and Baltimore will be worse so 1 or 2 wins are possible, but they should struggle with their divisional competition once again. Outside of the division, they play host to Philadelphia, Buffalo, San Diego, Kansas City, and Washington. I have 4 of those teams making the playoffs and even Kansas City could give them a game. 1-4 is definitely possible in those 5 games. They also go to New York to play the Giants, to Indianapolis, to Dallas, to Oakland, and to Denver. They could win one or two of those games, but I think every one of those teams is better than them (except maybe Oakland) and those games are all on the road.

Projection: 3-13 4^th in NFC North

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New Orleans Saints extend QB Drew Brees

July 13, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Saints

What the hell took so long? I almost want to give this less than an A because it should have been done either last year or much earlier this offseason. It is a major hit to team morale when it takes the franchise quarterback this long to get paid. It makes the rest of the locker room question whether their front office has their best interests in mind and for a Saints team already taking morale and chemistry hits after BountyGate, that’s a very bad thing.

However, it would have been impossible for the Saints to overpay Drew Brees. There really isn’t a value on a franchise quarterback like him. There’s a reason that when a guy like Peyton Manning hits the open market, half the league is in on him even though he’s 36, missed all of last season, and is coming off of 4 neck surgeries. The Titans even offered him a contract worth 25 million dollars per year. Think of what Brees could have gotten on the open market.

The Saints now have their leader locked down for 5 years at a total of 100 million with 60 million guaranteed. They’ll have him there in Training Camp, which means this team should once again be considered the favorites in a division they won by 3 games last year, and they’ll remain contenders for years to come. Quarterbacks have a much longer shelf life than most positions so Brees should be able to, barring major injury, play at a high level through his age 37 season, the final year of his contract in 2016.

Grade: A

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Cincinnati Bengals 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 13, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Bengals

Offense

The Bengals shocked everyone in 2011, going from 4 wins to 9 and securing the AFC’s 6^th and final playoff spot. Every year since 2003, at least one team has improved from 5 or fewer wins and made the playoffs and last year that was the Bengals. Andy Dalton not only beat the odds as a rookie quarterback, but also as a 2^nd round pick quarterback, the history of which has not been strong in the NFL. The Bengals also topped off their surprise season by trading Carson Palmer, who they weren’t even using, to the Raiders for a 1^st and 2^nd round pick.

However, things are not all good. The Bengals, while they made the playoffs, did not beat a single playoff team, going 0-8 (including playoffs) in 8 games against playoff teams and 9-0 against non-playoff teams. They also finished 3-6 in their final 9 games after a 6-2 start and Andy Dalton completed just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA and 8 touchdowns to 9 interceptions in their final 9 games, as opposed to 61.5% for an average of 6.6 YPA and 12 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in their first 8 games. Finally, teams that go from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs often regress the next season, averaging 2.8 fewer wins than their playoff season.

Quarterback

I got into Andy Dalton 1^st/2^nd half splits in the intro. A big part of the reason for his struggles late in the season was because the Bengals’ schedule got tougher. They had to face Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Houston 6 times in a 9 game stretch, while their toughest 2 games in the first half of the season where Denver and San Francisco. Sure enough, Dalton’s splits against playoff and non-playoff teams were not pretty.

Against non-playoff teams, Dalton completed 61.8% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. However, against playoff teams, he completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Good teams knew how to make him struggle so it’s no surprise he was 0-8 in those 8 games.

Heading into his 2^nd season in the NFL, many expect him to take the next step as a quarterback, but I expect him to do the opposite. Colt McCoy was a similar quarterback who had a similar rookie year. Both played well in the 1^st half or so of their rookie year, but struggled down the stretch. McCoy started 2-3 in his first 5 games, despite playing Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England, Jacksonville and the Jets, and only lost one game by more than a touchdown. He completed 63.8% of his passes for 7.7 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. However, in his final 3 games, he completed 56.8% of his passes for 6.3 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, losing all 3, including 3 by double digits.

The Browns still were a popular sleeper coming into 2011, before McCoy showed his true colors, completing 57.2% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions. He has since been benched for 1^st round rookie Brandon Weeden. Like McCoy, Dalton is physically limited, but accurate and intelligent.

Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden did a masterful job of masking his flaws and taking advantage of his strengths with a great offensive game plan during the first half of the season, but the problem with that is that defenses eventually catch on and figure out how to scheme against you. It’s the same reason why Kyle Orton went 6-0 in his first 6 starts in Denver with Josh McDaniels and 5-22 in his next 27.

Many people, including some who know the game a lot better than me, have cast doubts on Dalton’s ability to be a franchise quarterback long term. The Bengals have run a good PR campaign in response to accusations that people within the organization had doubts about Dalton’s upside, but what do you expect them to do? Count me in the non-believer group when it comes to Dalton. Quarterbacks fall to the 2^nd round for a reason and there’s a reason why the list of quarterbacks drafted in the 2^nd round in the past decade or so to have long term success starts and ends with Drew Brees.

Grade: C+

Running Backs

The Bengals have run a one back system for 3 years with Cedric Benson. Benson, however, is easily the worst back to finish in the top-10 in carries for 3 straight years (Maurice Jones Drew, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Steven Jackson). On 895 carries, he rushed for 3429 yards (3.8 YPC), scored just 20 times, and caught just 60 passes. Illustrating how little the league thinks of Benson, he is currently still unsigned as of this writing. I know he’s old, but if he were anywhere near talented enough to deserve to be in the company he was carries wise, he’d have a contract right now, easily, even at his age.

Benson has been replaced by a two back system, but I don’t know if things are any better. The two backs in the system, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Bernard Scott, both averaged less than 4 yards per carry last season. BJGE (3.7 YPC) is coming over from New England. As a Patriots fan, I watched about 16 or 17 of the Patriots’ 19 games last season (including playoffs) and I can’t tell you how many times I saw BJGE run for 3 yards through a hole. Among eligible backs on ProFootballFocus, the Lawfirm was 61th out of 67 in yards after contact per carry with 2.0.

Belichick loved him because he doesn’t fumble (0 fumbles in 510 career carries) and New England’s passing offense was so good that all they needed him to do was run through holes and not fumble, but that’s not the case in Cincinnati. They’ll need their running game to open things up for the passing game because I expect Dalton to continue to struggle and BJGE is not that kind of back, especially now that he’ll no longer be facing spread out boxes fearing the pass like he was as a Patriot.

He scored 24 times in New England over the past 2 seasons, but 18 of those were in goal-to-go situations. He won’t get nearly as many of those types of touchdowns on a more stagnant offense in Cincinnati. He also offers nothing as a pass catcher, catching 21 passes in 2 seasons with the Patriots, despite having one of the best in the business throwing passes.

His partner in the running back tandem is Bernard Scott (3.4 YPC). Scott has a little bit more speed, while BJGE has a little bit more power, but Scott has never been an effective back in the NFL. There’s a reason he’s only managed 247 carries in 3 seasons as the #2 back to Cedric Benson, who we’ve already established is not very good. He’s also only caught 29 passes. Unless they get some sort of breakout year from 6^th round rookie Dan Herron, the Bengals figure to have the least running back talent of any team in the league.

Grade: C-

Offensive Line

I specify that they figure to have the least running back talent, rather than saying they’ll be the league’s worst running team, because of their offensive line. They don’t have the talent to take advantage of it, but they actually have one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league. In fact, they are one of the best offensive lines in the league in general, as they allowed just 25 sacks last year, good for 4^th fewest in the NFL. That obviously helped Andy Dalton.

Their offensive line figures to be even better this year as they upgraded their only weakness, guard. Left guard was manned by Nate Livings, who graded out well below average on ProFootballFocus with a -13.4 rating. He somehow got a good contract from the Cowboys, but he didn’t deserve it. Opposite him at right guard, Bobbie Williams played alright, but missed a lot of time with injury. The soon to be 36 year old was not brought back. In his absence, Mike McGlynn was awful.

Replacing Livings and Williams/McGlynn are Travelle Wharton and Kevin Zeitler. Wharton struggled some in pass protection with the Panthers last year, allowing 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 27 quarterback pressures, but made up for it by being a strong run blocker and by only getting penalized once. He finished last season with a -2.6 rating overall and he’s been better in the past. Heading into his age 31 season, he’s still a solid starter.

Zeitler, meanwhile, was the 27^th overall pick of the 2012 NFL Draft. While I thought it was incredibly stupid for the Bengals to trade down from 21 to 27 and pass on a once in a decade prospect in David DeCastro, letting him get to division rival Pittsburgh nonetheless, Zeitler is still a very good football player. The Bengals had him rated higher than DeCastro. I disagree, but he should still be a very solid pro for at least 10 years. With Zeitler and Wharton coming in, that should be enough to take the Bengals from a solid run blocking team to one of the best in the league. Sandwiched between Zeitler and Wharton is Kyle Cook, a solid center, whose strength is run blocking.

Rounding out the offensive line are tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith. Whitworth wasn’t quite his usual self last year, ranking 7^th among offensive tackles with a 13.1 rating, but most of that can be blamed on his struggles as a run blocker. In pass protection, he was as pristine as ever, allowing just 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, 16 quarterback pressures, and committing 8 penalties. He ranked 2^nd on ProFootballFocus as a pass blocker, very typical for him as he’s ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked offensive tackle in pass blocking efficiency over the past 3 years, behind only Joe Thomas and Jake Long. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ top overall offensive tackle and he was much better as a run blocker then. The fact that this guy has never made a Pro Bowl exemplifies what’s wrong with Pro Bowl voting.

Meanwhile, Andre Smith was looking like a bust after struggling with injury and weight problems in his first 2 years in the NFL, after going 6^th overall in the 2009 NFL Draft, but he played well in 2011 at right tackle. Smith managed a solid -1.7 rating and allowed just 3 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, 17 quarterback pressures, and committed 8 penalties. He too struggled a little as a run blocker. However, overall, the Bengals have a strong offensive line that deserves more recognition. They figure to run and pass block very well this season. If only they had more quarterback and running back talent to take advantage of it.

Grade: A-

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

One other talent on the offense that is not fully being taken advantage of is AJ Green. Despite being a mere rookie off of a lockout shortened offseason, Green had an amazing year in 2011, catching 65 passes for 1057 yards and 7 touchdowns. He definitely makes Dalton look better than he is. However, if Dalton regresses this season, which I expect him to, it’ll hurt Green’s ability to take the next step as a receiver, at least statistically. His upside is off the charts if they can ever get him a legitimate franchise quarterback. One thing he can clean up is his 10 penalties, but I think you can chalk that up to him being a rookie.

Opposite him, Jerome Simpson is gone, but it’s not like the Bengals don’t have plenty of other options. Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones, 3^rd and 5^th round picks in the 2012 NFL Draft respectively, were brought in and the organization is also high on Armon Binns, a 2011 undrafted rookie. Brandon Tate, a mediocre talent, will also be in the mix, but I think the job will go to Sanu.

Sanu was a steal in the 3^rd round and is a perfect fit for the Bengals. Sanu is very limited in the things he can do on the football field, but he’s very good at a few things. He has 4.6 speed and only had 4 receptions of 20+ yards at his time at Rutgers, but he caught 210 passes total in just 3 years despite playing with 3 different freshman quarterbacks. He’s excellent at getting open underneath and is the definition of a possession receiver. He’ll compliment AJ Green well like TJ Houshmanzadeh complimented Chad Ochocinco.

One concern in the receiving corps is the health of Jordan Shipley. Shipley had a strong rookie year in 2010 with 52 catches for 600 yards and 3 scores out of the slot, but missed almost all of last season with a torn ACL, which he admits is still stiff. He was plagued by injuries at Texas in college, which is the reason why he was a 6^th year senior when he eventually came to the Bengals as a 3^rd round pick. He’s already entering his age 27 season. He could start the season on the PUP, in which case the Bengals would likely move Sanu to the slot in 3-wide receiver sets and play someone like Binns or Jones or Tate outside as the 3^rd receiver.

At tight end, the Bengals have Jermaine Gresham. Gresham is an incredibly talented player and was a 1^st round pick in 2010, but he hasn’t lived up to his talent. He hasn’t exceeded 56 catches for 596 yards and 6 touchdowns in either of his 2 seasons, though he somehow made the Pro Bowl last year (Jermaine Gresham Pro Bowler, Andrew Whitworth not, yeah, fuck you Pro Bowl). He could break out in any year, but he’s hurt by his quarterback’s limitations, as is AJ Green and the rest of what’s actually a very good receiving corps.

Grade: B+

Defense

The Bengals had a top-10 defense in 2011, but like the rest of the team, they struggled in the 2^nd half of the season. Including playoffs, they allowed 23.8 points per game in their final 9 games, as opposed to 17.5 points per game in their first 8 games. Part of that was the tougher schedule, but they also really missed Leon Hall. Hall tore his Achilles in November, week 10 against the Steelers. He’s expected to begin the season on the PUP, which means he’ll miss at least 6 games and he might not be himself the entire season. They have a great pass rush (45 sacks in 2011), but a leaky secondary is definitely a problem.

Defensive Line

Their defensive line was obviously a big part of the reason why they had 45 sacks last season. They didn’t have anyone with more than 7.5 sacks in the regular season, but that’s because they use so much rotation on the defensive line. Only two of their defensive lineman played more than 700 snaps last season, playoffs included. They were defensive tackle Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson.

Atkins played incredibly well and has established himself as one of the league’s premier defensive tackles. No one at his position did better than his 34.9 rating on ProFootballFocus, as he managed 9 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures on 490 pass rush snaps (10.8%), while playing the run well. Starting next to him at defensive tackle is Domata Peko. Peko isn’t nearly as good of a pass rusher with 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures (3.7%), but he also plays the run well. He’s taken off the field on passing downs, so his struggles as a pass rusher don’t matter that much.

Last year, it was Jonathan Fanene, who also played some end, playing defensive tackle on passing downs. He was a decent pass rusher with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures on 332 pass rush snaps (8.7%), but he’s now with the Patriots. To replace him, the Bengals used a 2^nd round pick on Devon Still. Pat Sims and 3^rd round pick Brandon Thompson could also be in the mix, but Atkins, Peko, and Still will get the bulk of the snaps at the position.

At defensive end, the Bengals also lost someone as a free agent as Frostee Rucker took a ridiculous 5 year, 20.5 million dollar contract in Cleveland, even though he’s only a situational run stopper. He’s a good run stopper, who ranked 12^th at his position in that facet, but managed a laughable 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 215 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 5.1%, pathetic for a defensive end.

With him gone, Carlos Dunlap is expected to see more of the field. Given how well Dunlap has done as a situational player, that could be a good thing. Playing only 448 snaps total, Dunlap managed 5 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures. On 302 pass rush snaps, he had a pass rush rate of 15.6%. However, playing more would mean playing more snaps against the run, which is not a strength of his game. Plus, dating back to his days at Florida, he was always better as a situational player than as a starter, which is why a pass rusher as talented as him fell to the 2^nd round in 2010. If Dunlap struggles with more playing time, the Bengals could use Devon Still at defensive end some on non-passing downs. Still played there some in OTAs and minicamp.

The other two members of their defensive end rotation are Michael Johnson and Robert Geathers. Both graded out below average on ProFootballFocus with ratings of -6.5 and -7.5 respectively. Johnson had 7 sacks, but just 6 quarterback hits and 15 quarterback pressures, good for a 6.5% rate on 433 pass rush snaps. Meanwhile, Geathers had 4 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback hits on 274 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 7.3%.

This basically shows a theme. The Bengals had a good amount of sacks last year, but the amount of quarterback hits and quarterback pressures they had, 68 and 142 respectively, was pretty average. Given that, they could have significantly fewer sacks in 2012 as some of their sacks turn to pressures or hits. There’s a reason why they only graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 12^th ranked pass rushing team last year, despite the 5^th most sacks in the league. And if Carlos Dunlap struggles as he’s counted on to play more, that would be a big hit to their pass rush. Against the run, meanwhile, they ranked a solid 8^th with 3.9 YPC allowed. This is a solid bunch on the line for the Bengals, but not an elite one.

Grade: B

Linebackers

While they use a lot of rotation on the defensive line, that’s not so much the case in their linebacking corps. Rey Maualuga and Thomas Howard are every down players when healthy, Maualuga missed 3 games last year, while Brandon Johnson comes in for Manny Lawson in base packages. Howard and Lawson were afterthoughts in free agency in the 2011 offseason, but both played very well. Howard had a decent 2.4 rating, while Lawson, a much better fit in a 4-3 than he was in a 3-4 in San Francisco, had a 10.7 rating, good for 9^th at his position, thanks to his strong play against the run. That’s all they really need him to do. Johnson, meanwhile, is a solid nickel linebacker.

Maualuga, meanwhile, had a down year in his 3^rd year in the league after being an above average linebacker in his first 2 seasons. He had a -6.3 rating after ratings of 6.7 and 9.1 in his first 2 years in the league after going in the 2^nd round in 2009. You can attribute that to injuries that cost him 3 games and limited him in several others. Maualuga had surgery on his bad ankle after the year and should be able to bounce back in 2012. He’s not much in coverage at 260 pounds, but he’s a big thumping run stuffer.

Grade: B

[yard_barker]

Secondary

The secondary is the biggest problem defensively for the Bengals, especially if their pass rush regresses some in 2012. Leon Hall is, as of this writing, 8 months removed from a torn Achilles. He’s expected to start the season on the PUP, which means he’ll miss at least 6 games. Even when he’s eligible to return in mid-October, that will only be 11 months since his injury and this injury normally takes a year or more to recover from, especially fully. When he plays this year, he probably won’t be his old self.

In his absence, the Bengals are expected to start Dre Kirkpatrick opposite Nate Clements. Kirkpatrick is a talented player and was worthy of the 17^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, but rookie cornerbacks tend to take a year or two to adjust to the speed of the NFL. Even Patrick Peterson was terrible in coverage last year. Clements, meanwhile, is heading into his age 33 season so his best days are obviously behind him. He was solid last year with a -0.2 rating, but he’s no sure thing going forward.

Free agent acquisition Jason Allen could push him for that starting job. Allen played very well in a variety of different roles for the Texans last year, including outside cornerback, slot cornerback, and some safety. He allowed 39 completions on 77 attempts (50.6%) for 457 yards (5.9 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with 5 deflections and 2 penalties. He’ll play a significant role this season somewhere, probably on the slot, where he’s best.

At safety, the Bengals have gotten rid of Chris Crocker. He wasn’t very good, but they didn’t replace him. The Bengals are counting on Taylor Mays to start in his absence. Mays was a 2^nd round pick in 2010 by the San Francisco 49ers, but when Jim Harbaugh came in, he traded him for an insignificant pick in a future year and he played just 68 snaps for the Bengals last year. He’s an ideal fit for the Bengals’ system under Mike Zimmer as he has some similarities to Roy Williams, who Zimmer had a ton of success with both in Dallas and some in Cincinnati. If he can work out anywhere, it’s in Cincinnati, but he’s certainly no sure thing. 5^th round rookie George Iloka and 2011 5^th round pick Robert Sands would be next in line should he fail.

Next to whoever starts at strong safety, the Bengals have Reggie Nelson. Nelson was a bust in Jacksonville, but got things together in Cincinnati and was rewarded with a 4 year, 18 million dollar deal. He’s an average safety, who had a -3.1 rating last year and he’s better in coverage than against the run. Overall though, things are average at best in the secondary. Unless Leon Hall can somehow find his old form and do so for more than 8 games or so, they don’t have a single player in the secondary you can describe as anything other than average. Kirkpatrick is a rookie, Mays is inexperienced and had an underwhelming career thus far, while Nate Clements is on his last legs. A secondary headlined by Jason Allen and Reggie Nelson is nothing to be proud of.

Their leaky secondary is only one of the reasons I don’t think the Bengals will matched their 9^th ranked scoring defense from 2011. Their pass rush is overrated if you look purely at sacks and the 23.8 points per game they allowed in their final 9 games would have ranked 22^nd last season. I know they played a tougher schedule in their final 9 games, but, while Baltimore and Pittsburgh are great teams, they’re hardly offensive power houses, while Houston was starting a rookie quarterback. They really missed Leon Hall.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

Believe it or not, Marvin Lewis is actually the 3^rd longest tenured Head Coach in the NFL after Andy Reid and Bill Belichick. Despite his 69-74 record and 0-3 record in playoff games, he’s seemingly had 9 lives as a Head Coach, surviving every time his name comes up as someone who could be fired. The Bengals have been very loyal to him. I don’t know if that necessarily makes him a bad coach. He hasn’t exactly had great talent, but he hasn’t been a great one either. If the Bengals regress this year, expect Lewis’ name to be mentioned as someone who could be fired again and this time he might not survive.

Grade: B-

Overall

I’ve gone over the reasons why I think this team will regress this season. I’m not an Andy Dalton believer. They didn’t beat a playoff team all last year. They struggled down the stretch. They’ll miss Leon Hall being at 100%. Also, teams that go from 5 wins to the playoffs win, on average, 2.8 fewer games the following season. This makes sense as teams that do that often do it because so many things go right for them, including the schedule, in the year they make the playoffs. Except for the Hall injury, which will continue to hurt them this year, they had very minimal injuries last season.

Also, the fact that they didn’t beat a single playoff team last year is very troubling. It shows that they really aren’t that caliber of a team. It remains me of the Buccaneers, who did the same thing in 2010, going 9-1 in games against worse than .500 teams and 1-5 in their other 6, with that one win coming against New Orleans week 17 when they weren’t really trying. The Buccaneers almost went from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs in 2010 (they won 10 games and barely missed) and then this year they did the complete opposite, going 4-12 and pushing their record against .500 or better teams to 3-14 over a two year span. The Bengals are a young team just like the Buccaneers.

Schedule wise, they once again have 4 tough divisional games against Baltimore and Pittsburgh and two easier ones against Cleveland. 2-4 seems reasonable again. They may win one of those 4 against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but they’re equally as likely to drop one to Cleveland. Outside of the division, they host Miami, Denver, the Giants, the Raiders, and the Cowboys. Miami and Oakland should be easier, but Denver, the Giants, and the Cowboys will all be tough games, even at home.

They also have trips to Washington and Philadelphia, both of whom will be improved, San Diego late in the season (almost never loses at home late in the season), Kansas City, and Jacksonville. They should win one or more of those games, but there’s definitely the potential schedule wise, for this team win 5 or 6 games, especially if they struggle to pass, in addition to struggling to run, and struggling some defensively.

Just like one team goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs every year, one team does the opposite every year and the Bengals are my pick to do so this year. The Bengals did the exact same thing the last time they made the playoffs. They went from 5 wins or less in 2008, to the playoffs in 2009, then back to 5 wins or less in 2010, before making the playoffs in 2011. Bengals fans should prepare themselves to go back down on this roller coaster.

Projection: 4-12 3^rd in NFC North

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Mike Williams, Ben Obomanu, and Deon Butler are not locks to make Seahawks’ roster

July 12, 2012 stevenlourie News, Seahawks

According to the Seattle Post, none of Mike Williams, Ben Obomanu, and Deon Butler are locks to make the Seahawks’ roster. The report called Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, and Sidney Rice as the only locks to make the roster, as the trio of Williams, Obomanu, and Butler will have to compete with youngsters Ricardo Lockette and Kris Durham. Durham was a 4^th round pick in 2011 that did nothing as a rookie, while Lockette is an undrafted free agent from that same year that Pete Carroll has spoken highly of. Mike Williams, meanwhile, is owed 3 million this year and questionable for the start of camp as he recovers from broken leg. He seems likely to be one of the odd men out.

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Cowboys could use Andre Holmes as #3 receiver

July 12, 2012 stevenlourie Cowboys, News

According to ESPN Dallas, Cowboys Owner/GM Jerry Jones suggested that Andre Holmes has the inside track to be the Cowboys’ #3 receiver. Behind starters Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, the Cowboys lack any proven depth having lost Laurent Robinson in the offseason. Bryant and Austin have histories of injury problems, so that could be a problem.

Holmes is competing with Kevin Ogletree, who struggled last year when counted on, as well as 2011 6^th round pick Dwayne Harris and 2012 5^th round pick Danny Coale. Holmes was undrafted out of Hillsdale in 2011 and spent last year on the practice squad. He has ideal size at 6-5 223 and could remind some of Miles Austin, a 2006 undrafted free agent out of Monmouth who has become one of the league’s better receivers. Either way, the Cowboys shouldn’t be confident in their wide receiver depth.

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Jets’ Vladimir Ducaase, Joe McKnight both acknowledge this is a “make or break” year

July 12, 2012 stevenlourie Jets, News

In separate interviews with the Newark Star-Ledger, both Vladimir Ducasse and Joe McKnight admit this is a “make or break” year for them. Both Jets are heading into their 3^rd seasons in the NFL, going in the 2^nd and 4^th rounds respectively in 2010. Ducasse is a versatile player who has not been able to crack the starting lineup anywhere, including right tackle, where the terrible Wayne Hunter allowed 11 sacks last year. He’s currently a reserve guard.

McKnight, meanwhile, has averaged just 3.9 YPC in his career, including 3.1 YPC last year, on just 82 carries. McKnight is currently the #2 back behind Shonn Greene, an uninspiring lead back on a run heavy offense, but lacks talent and showed up to OTAs out of shape this offseason. I would not be surprised at all if neither of these players were with the Jets in 2013.

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Veteran Artis Hicks is favorite for Dolphins’ right guard job

July 12, 2012 stevenlourie Dolphins, News

When the Dolphins chose not to resign veteran Vernon Carey, it appeared John Jerry would be given the starting right guard job. However, according to both the Palm Beach Post and South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Jerry has struggled in practice and the veteran Artis Hicks is currently the favorite for the starting job. Hicks is heading into his age 34 season and spent last year as a backup for the Browns, struggling whenever he was counted on to play. The Dolphins have also considered signing Jake Scott, arguably the best available veteran offensive lineman. Whatever happens, it’s not a good sign for John Jerry, a 2010 3^rd round pick who hasn’t done nothing significant thus far in his career.

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4 way competition for Bills nickel cornerback job

July 12, 2012 stevenlourie Bills, News

According to BuffaloBills.com, there is a 4 way competition for the Bills’ nickel cornerback job this offseason with 2012 1^st round Stephon Gilmore and 2011 2^nd round pick Aaron Williams expected to start outside at cornerback. The 4 players competing are Terrence McGee, Justin Rogers, Ron Brooks, Leodis McKelvin. McGee is entering his age 32 season and restructured to a 2 year, 4 million dollar deal earlier this offseason, after missing most of last season with injury. Brooks is a 4^th round rookie. McKelvin is a former 1^st round pick bust of the 2008 NFL Draft. Rogers was a 7^th round pick in 2011.

The Bills’ website says Rogers is currently the favorite, but it looks pretty wide open right now. With 4 guys competing for 1 job, it’s very likely that the Bills will also cut 1 or 2 of the competitors in final cuts as no one carries 6 cornerbacks. Brooks is unlikely to be cut as he was just drafted and Rogers appears to lead the competition right now, so McGee and McKelvin would appear to be the ones on the roster bubble.

Though McGee was just restructured earlier this offseason, he’s old and injury prone and only received a 300 thousand dollar signing bonus. McKelvin, meanwhile, is heading into his contract year and has never lived up to being the 11^th overall pick in 2008. The regime that drafted him is gone so they no longer have loyalty to him. My money is on Rogers winning the nickel job, McKelvin staying as a dime back, and the rookie Brooks playing just special teams for this year, leaving McGee as the odd man out.

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Football Fan Spot

A site for football fans

Month: July 2012

Oakland Raiders extend S Tyvon Branch

Houston Texans 2012 NFL Season Preview

Cleveland Browns 2012 NFL Season Preview

New Orleans Saints extend QB Drew Brees

Cincinnati Bengals 2012 NFL Season Preview

Mike Williams, Ben Obomanu, and Deon Butler are not locks to make Seahawks’ roster

Cowboys could use Andre Holmes as #3 receiver

Jets’ Vladimir Ducaase, Joe McKnight both acknowledge this is a “make or break” year

Veteran Artis Hicks is favorite for Dolphins’ right guard job

4 way competition for Bills nickel cornerback job