Vikings’ Adrian Peterson unlikely to face league discipline

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie News, Vikings

In the middle of an arrest laden offseason for the NFL, one of its biggest stars, Adrian Peterson, was arrested for resisting arrest this weekend. Details on the situation remain murky and it’s unclear if Peterson is actually guilty of any wrongdoing. Reports range from Peterson shoving an officer to Peterson being the victim of police brutality and receiving a black eye after he went to get water as police were closing the club he was in.

Peterson is due in court this Friday and details should be clearer after that, but either way, Peterson, who has no past offenses, will not face league discipline. The major concern with Peterson going forward is his health after tearing his ACL in September. He’s now expected to be able to go week 1 and may even be able to participate in Training Camp, but the Vikings are going to be very cautious with him and may even use Toby Gerhart as the starter early in the year.

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Eagles’ Dion Lewis arrested

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie Eagles, News

Adrian Peterson’s arrest this weekend featured a bigger name, but the arrest of Eagles’ running back Dion Lewis appears to be more serious. Lewis and his brother reportedly were intoxicated and locked out of their hotel room and Lewis played the fire alarm even though there was no fire, a felony in the state of New York. Lewis was also charged with misdemeanor reckless endangerment. Lewis is a 1^st time offender so he probably won’t face league discipline, but these are serious charges. Lewis, a 2011 5th round pick, is expected to be LeSean McCoy’s primary backup this year.

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Saints’ Drew Brees has no plans to attend Training Camp without new deal

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie News, Saints

With 6 days until next Monday’s deadline for franchise players to sign long term deals, Drew Brees said today that he has no plans to attend Training Camp without a new deal and while he earlier said he would never miss any games, he did say that he would leave the Saints wondering if he would return for week 1 if he doesn’t get a new deal. This is even more bad news for the Saints in the Brees negotiations after it was recently ruled that Brees had been franchised before and thus the franchise tag value for the 2013 season would be 23.57 million.

If the Saints can’t get a deal with Brees done in the next 6 days, their entire front office deserves to be fired. Not having Brees in Training Camp would be a terrible blow for team morale and chemistry, two things that have already taken blows this offseason after BountyGate. It would also mean that Brees would be a free agent after next season and the Saints would have to pay him 23.57 million to keep him in 2013. And if it got to that, it would be an even bigger blow to team morale and chemistry.

The two sides are roughly 1 million dollar apart right now. All of those things I mentioned are simply not worth that small amount of money and it’s not like Brees hasn’t earned the money he’s asking for. The Saints have offered Brees 19.25 million per year, barely more than the 19.2 million that an older and more injury prone Peyton Manning got from the Broncos this offseason. Brees is asking for 20.5 million. Given how much Manning got, and that Manning was reportedly offered 25 million per year by the Titans, Brees would undoubtedly be able to exceed 20.5 million on the open market. The Saints need to get this deal done.

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Arizona Cardinals 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Cardinals

Offense

It seems like forever ago that the Cardinals were in the Super Bowl, but it was really just February of 2009. It’s amazing what a difference Kurt Warner made. Since he retired after the 2009 season, their yearly sacks allowed have nearly doubled and their passing production has plummeted. Derek Anderson and Max Hall got the first crack at replacing the future Hall of Famer in 2010, but both struggled en route to a 5-11 finish.

In the 2011 offseason, they spent a fortune to acquire Kevin Kolb from the Philadelphia Eagles, but he missed 8 games with injuries last season and backup John Skelton arguably outplayed him. Now heading into 2012, Skelton and Kolb will battle for the starting job in a competition that may have no winner. The silver lining for the Cardinals is a talented young defense that played very well down the stretch en route to a 7-2 record in their last 9 games.

Quarterback

As I said, Skelton and Kolb will battle for the starting job in a competition that may have no winner. The Cardinals are hoping that one quarterback who can definitively start all 16 games, if healthy, command the locker room, and lead their offense will emerge, but they may be disappointed. The pair will also compete well into the Preseason possibly, which could create a divided locker room, which is never a good thing. As the old saying goes, a team with two quarterbacks has none.

Record wise, Skelton appeared to be the better quarterback. Skelton went 6-2, while Kolb went 2-6. However, Skelton was more lucky than good in that his 8 games came right at the same time the defense was stepping up. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. The Cardinals went 7-2 in their final 9 games and Skelton started 8 of them. In Kolb’s only start in that time period, he won. So the two quarterbacks are much more even than their records would suggest.

Statistically speaking, Kolb was the superior quarterback. Kolb completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton did rush for 128 yards as opposed to 65 and took just 23 sacks as opposed to 30 for Kolb.

It will be a close competition in camp. Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt says he’ll pick the best man for the job, but admits that he hopes that quarterback is Kevin Kolb because of how much the team invested in him. I would guess that the week 1 starter will be Kolb, even if he’s not necessarily the superior quarterback in camp and the preseason, for that reason.

The Cardinals better hope he’s the answer. They can’t afford to have him struggle, get hurt, or get benched because, as I already said, a team with two quarterbacks has none. Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason for reasons other than injury rarely make the playoffs. The Broncos did it last year, but at 8-8 and the locker room was behind Tebow for the most part even when Orton was out there. Other than that, I can’t remember the last time that happened.

Grade: C

Offensive line

Whoever the quarterback is, they’ll have to get him time to throw and keep him upright. A bad quarterback behind a bad offensive line is a recipe for disaster. A bad offensive line is exactly what they had last year and the year before. In fact, since Kurt Warner retired, this offensive line seen their sacks allowed vastly increased. Last year, they allowed 54 sacks and the year before they allowed 50.

Their problems start outside at tackle. Left tackle Levi Brown has never lived up to being the 5^th overall pick of the 2007 NFL Draft (two picks before Adrian Peterson). He was actually cut this offseason, but immediately resigned to a more team friendly deal. He’ll make 9 million this season, but has no money guaranteed beyond this year so he can be cut if he continues to struggle, which history suggests will happen. Last season, he allowed 11 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures, while committing 6 penalties. He graded out above average as a run blocker on ProFootballFocus, but his -22.2 pass blocking rating was 2^nd worst at his position.

Opposite him, the Cardinals used two different players, Brandon Keith and Jeremy Bridges. That duo essentially split snaps on the season and combined to allow 12 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 40 quarterback pressures, with 5 penalties. Bridges is currently penciled in as the starter, but they’ll be hoping that 4^th round pick rookie Bobby Massie can take over at some point, possibly even week 1. He is a mere 4^th round rookie, however, even if he was regarded as a steal at that point.

Inside, things get better. Right guard Adam Snyder was signed from San Francisco to a significant contract, even though he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd worst ranked guard with a -24.4. However, center Lyle Sendlein did grade out above average with a 3.6. He’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker, however, and the 18 pressures allowed by him were 2^nd worst at his position (with 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit). The last thing either of their quarterbacks need is pressure right up the middle in his face.

Daryn Colledge played alright in his 1^st year after being exiled from Green Bay, but did grade out below average overall with a -3.8. Like Sendlein, he’s better as a run blocker than a pass blocker. Those two continue Arizona’s trend of being unable to pass protect, which I don’t see getting much better, even if John Skelton, who took fewer sacks, ends up starting.

They used 4^th and 5th round picks on the position getting Senio Kelemete and Massie and unless either of those two can step up, win a starting job and play well, they will be one of the worst pass blocking offensive lines in the league. Kelemete is a guard who could end up starting if Snyder continues to struggle or has to move to right tackle. Kelemete can also play right tackle, as can Massie. The good news is that ProFootballFocus graded them as the 6^th best run blocking squad in the league.

Grade: C

Running backs

Their strong run blocking offensive line will help their running backs. At running back, they have two talented former high draft picks, but both are also often injured. Ryan Williams was their 2^nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, but he has yet to play a snap in the NFL thanks to a nasty knee injury that cost him all of last year. The early prognosis on the injury was that he could miss until 2013, but he’s back and practicing now. It’s fair to question how explosive he’ll be. He also suffered a major injury in college at Virginia Tech, injuring his hamstring, which caused him to miss 4 games in 2010 and be limited in many others as he rushed for just 477 yards on 110 carries.

They’ll need him to be explosive in 2012 because, though Chris Wells played well, they were really lacking in depth at the position. Behind Wells, they had just Alfonso Smith, LaRod Stephens-Howling, and Chester Taylor, a big part of the reason why they just carried the ball 389 times on the season, 4^th fewest in the league. A strong running game will take the pressure off the quarterback and play more to the strengths of the offensive line, which would help neutralize their two offensive weaknesses.

The problem, while Wells rushed for 1049 yards and 10 touchdowns on 245 carries, he had never been fully healthy in his career before last year and this offseason he had another knee surgery. It was said to be a minor procedure, but he has still yet to practice with the team as of this writing and admits he doesn’t know when he’ll be able to. Either the initial prognosis was wrong or the Cardinals are trying to be tight lipped and keep the severity of the injury a secret.

Grade: B

Receivers

The receivers are Arizona’s best group offensively. Larry Fitzgerald really needs no explanation. The amount he’s been able to produce in his career despite generally poor quarterback play is amazing. Last year, he caught 80 passes for 1411 yards and 8 touchdowns. If he had Calvin Johnson’s quarterbacking, he might be able to produce statistically like Calvin Johnson did last year.

This year, he could be even more dangerous because defenses won’t be able to use as much bracket coverage on him as they did last year for the 1^st time since they traded Anquan Boldin. At Fitzgerald’s urging, the Cardinals drafted Michael Floyd with the 13^th overall pick to play opposite him. Floyd will only be a rookie and rookie receivers tend to struggle (don’t see Jones, Julio and Green, AJ), but he’ll still be an upgrade over the Early Doucet/Andre Roberts duo that started there last year and Floyd should start the season as a starter. Doucet and Roberts, meanwhile, will provide depth, where they fit much better. All of a sudden, the Cardinals have a very deep receiving corps.

The Cardinals have never used the tight end position much in the passing game, but this year could be different. The coaching staff has talked up their tight ends extensively this offseason and even Larry Fitzgerald called them the team’s most impressing group offensively. Even if that’s not necessarily true, they do have a good group at tight end. 2011 3^rd round pick Rob Housler has been talked up by the coaching staff and should start the season as the team’s #1 tight end in a more tight end focused offense. He has all the athletic tools with 4.4 speed at 6-5 248 so he could have a good year, but he’ll be limited by his quarterback and the options around him. He’s also not much of a blocker.

The Cardinals do have two talented blocking tight ends in veterans Todd Heap and Jeff King. They’ll likely duke it out for the right to come in on 2-tight end sets, which it sounds like they’ll be using more of this season. They don’t offer much in the passing game, however. They played most of the team’s snaps at tight end last year, but combined for just 51 catches for 554 yards and 4 touchdowns. At age 32 and 29 respectively, they won’t get better this season.

As talented as their receiving corps is, they will be underutilized unless they can get some sort of stability at quarterback. I don’t expect that Kevin Kolb or John Skelton will be able to do that. They would be able to mask their deficiencies in the passing game and play better to the strength of their offensive line if they could run more, but given the question injuries they have at running back, I don’t see that happening. Besides, Ken Whisenhunt has never been a run heavy Head Coach. I think they’ll struggle offensively once again this season.

Grade: A-

Defense

As I’ve mentioned before, the reason for their strong finish to last season was the play of their defense. In their first 7 games, they allowed 26.1 points per game, as opposed to 18.3 points per game allowed in their final 9 games. Young players like Daryl Washington, Patrick Peterson, Sam Acho, and O’Brien Schofield stepped up big time late last season, to compliment studs already in place on their defense like Darnell Dockett, Calais Campbell, and Adrian Wilson.

Defensive line

The defensive line is easily the most talented group on the defense and arguably the most talented bunch on the team. Divisional rival San Francisco has a hell of a bookend pair at defensive end on their 3 man line, but the Cardinals’ duo isn’t too shabby either. Whereas Justin Smith and Ray McDonald ranked 1^st and 3^rd respectively at the position on ProFootballFocus, Campbell and Dockett ranked 2^nd and 8^th respectively.

They were also the only two 3-4 defensive ends in the league to play over 1000 snaps, a testament to their incredible stamina. Both are still relatively young, but proven and also have been incredibly durable in their careers. Not like they needed a ton of it, but they do have solid depth at the position. The veteran Vonnie Holliday only played 159 snaps, but finished with a 6.6 rating. He’s 37 in December, however, so he’s no sure thing going forward.

The one thing stopping this defensive line from going from great to elite is the nose tackle position. The Cardinals thought they filled the void there when they drafted Dan Williams in the 1^st round in 2010, but he’s struggled with weight and durability issues in his 1^st two years in the league. He graded out positively last year, but only played 244 snaps, which wasn’t even the most on his own team at the position.

6^th round rookie David Carter ended up being a hidden gem of their 2011 draft class. He led the team in snaps played at the position with 249 and graded out with a solid 2.0 rating, which is impressive considering where he was drafted in the previous spring. He split time with Nick Eason, who was awful. Eason, who also played defensive end for them, graded out with a -13.7 rating across the two positions despite only playing 257 snaps total.

If Williams can get it going, Carter can be solid depth across all 3 positions, which will make this defensive line one of the best in the league. If he can’t, however, they’ll be in some trouble up the middle because at 300 pounds, Carter is too small to be a true nose tackle and Eason will have to play more than they should be comfortable with. In his 3^rd year in the league, Williams has everything to prove because they could spend an early draft pick on the position again in 2013 if Williams doesn’t show any signs of life.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

At linebacker, the Cardinals have a trio of young players who all played very well last season, especially late. Daryl Washington and O’Brien Schofield were 2^nd and 4^th round picks respectively in the 2010 NFL Draft, while Acho went in the 4^th last year. Daryl Washington graded out 10^th at his position with a 17.6 rating. He was above average in all areas of the game, playing solid in coverage and even chipping in 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures on 141 pass rushes (21.3%).

His weakest area was the run, which makes sense since he’s played his career in the low 230s, high 220s, but he made an effort to get in the 240s this offseason to add more power. This could allow him to take the next step as a football player, but, while he says he’s moving just as well, there’s always a risk with weight gains like that.

Acho and Schofield actually graded out negatively on ProFootballFocus, with a -3.7 and -6.2 respectively. However, that’s mostly due to their struggles against the run and there’s no denying that their defense was better once they were inserted into the starting lineup. Both are good pass rushers, with Acho recording 6 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 12 quarterback pressures on 211 pass rushes (8.5%) and Schofield recording 5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures on 181 pass rushes (7.7%). Both will be starters this year and their defense was better with them as starters last year. They could both post strong seasons.

The veteran Clark Haggans, meanwhile, actually led the position in snaps played with 885 before losing his starting job late in the season. He was resigned on a one year deal, but at 35, he’s nothing more than a backup or maybe rotational player, which is the way it should be. He had 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 25 quarterback pressures on 339 pass rushes (10.3%) and ended up with a -6.4 rating, 2^nd worst at the position. Good pass rush production from the outside linebacker position, as well as strong play from their defensive line, contributed big time to the 42 sacks they had last year, among the best in the league. They could approach that number again this season.

The weak link of the starting 4 at linebacker is Paris Lenon, who plays inside next to Washington. I’ve been calling him a mediocre veteran who needs to be replaced on several teams for seemingly 5 years now. He’s heading into his age 35 season, but he keeps on starting. He was ProFootballFocus’ 2^nd worst middle linebacker in the league with a -15.8 rating last year.

The Cardinals are hoping either Stewart Bradley or Quan Sturdivant can challenge him for the starting job. However, Bradley was a bust of their free agency class last offseason as he failed to shake the injuries that plagued him in Philadelphia, while Sturdivant was just a 6^th round pick last year. It seems unlikely that either of them can emerge as a solid starter so this probably will be a spot they’ll have to address next offseason, likely through the draft. Still, all in all, this is a solid linebacking group and part of a good front 7.

Grade: B

Secondary

The secondary was probably the Cardinals’ weakest group last year defensively. Yes, they did rank tied for 10^th against the pass last year with 6.9 YPA, but strong play from the front 7 had a lot to do with that. All of their cornerbacks graded out negatively against the pass, including rookie Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson.

Peterson made the Pro Bowl on the strength of 4 special teams touchdowns, but his -12.6 rating was actually 8^th worst at his position. He allowed 67 completions on 113 attempts (59.7%), 869 yards (7.7 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 8 deflections, and 10 penalties. However, rookie cornerbacks do tend to struggle. Now in his 2^nd year, I expect him to have a breakout year. He’s too talented not to.

Opposite him, the Cardinals are essentially having a four way battle for the #2 cornerback job. Richard Marshall, who was 2^nd on the team in snaps played at the position last year with 849, left for Miami this offseason, but AJ Jefferson, who was 3^rd on the team with 817, is still around. He’ll compete with Greg Toler, a former starter who missed all of last season with an ACL injury, William Gay, a free agent acquisition from Pittsburgh, and 3^rd round rookie Jamell Fleming for the right to start opposite Peterson.

Those 4 cornerbacks will line up 2-5 on the depth chart in some order, most likely. They have plenty of depth there, but I don’t know if there’s a solid starter in that bunch. Jefferson graded out with a -3.1 rating last season, while Toler graded out with a -2.8 as a starter in 2010 and that was before a major knee injury. Meanwhile, Fleming was just a 3^rd round pick in April.

Gay played solid in Pittsburgh last year with a 0.0 rating exactly and he’s familiar with the scheme as defensive coordinator Ray Horton used to be a defensive backs coach in Pittsburgh under defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau, so there are a lot of similarities. However, the Cardinals used a similar logic with Bryant McFadden a couple offseasons ago and he turned out to be a free agent bust once he no longer had Pittsburgh’s awesome front 7 in front of him. Jefferson is currently penciled in as the starter as he’s technically an incumbent, with Gay in the slot, but things are wide open after Peterson at cornerback.

Adrian Wilson, their starting strong safety, is easily their most talented defensive back. His 16.1 rating was 2^nd highest at his position and he was actually ranked as the league’s top run stuffing and pass defending safety, though his grade was knocked down overall for 6 penalties. Opposite him, Kerry Rhodes is a marginal starter, but he missed 9 games because of foot and ankle problems. Rashad Johnson played pretty poorly in his absence, so the Cardinals signed veteran James Sanders as insurance this offseason. However, Sanders’ -6.9 rating last year was worse than Johnson’s -2.4 in a similar amount of snaps.

Grade: B-

Head Coach

It’s a mixed bag with Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt. Yes, he made the Super Bowl just over 3 years ago, but he has yet to post a winning record in the 2 seasons since Kurt Warner retired and he failed massively thus far with the Kevin Kolb experiment. He has a 39-39 record in his career with the Arizona Cardinals and another losing season could put him on the hot seat.

Grade: B

Overall

Given the way they finished last year, you might think I’ll be picking the Cardinals to improve on their 8-8 record from last year. However, I won’t for two main reasons. One is obviously the quarterback position. I don’t think there’s a legitimate starting quarterback on the roster and that they’ll switch quarterbacks at least once, which could create a divided locker room. As I said earlier, it’s only special, rare circumstances when a team makes the playoffs after switching quarterbacks midseason for reasons other than injuries.

The 2^nd reason is that they weren’t actually as good as their 8-8 record suggested last year. They finished with a -36 points differential, which suggests that they actually played as well as a 6-10 team last year. They went 4-0 in overtime games last year. If that record had been 2-2 last year, this would have been a 6-10 team. They finished 8-5 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and didn’t win once more by than 7 points. They likely won’t have as much luck as last year.

Seattle, who finished 7-9 behind them, actually scored more points and allowed fewer points last year. Seattle also allowed fewer rushing yards and passing yards, while rushing for more yards last year. Only Arizona’s passing yards were higher last year and Seattle upgraded the quarterback position this year and can’t possibly have worse health on the offensive line and in the receiving corps. In fact, I think the only groups where Arizona has the advantage over Seattle is at wide receiver and on the defensive line. Seattle’s quarterbacks, running backs, offensive line, secondary, and Head Coach are all better, while the linebackers are essentially a wash.

Fortunately for the Cardinals, they do have an easy divisional schedule. They’ll win at least one against St. Louis and should win at least one other game in the division. Outside of the division, they host Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Detroit, and Chicago. They face 3 teams that could easily make the playoffs and another one in Buffalo that could surprise. Miami is the only sure thing in that bunch so they could end up with a 2-3 record in those 5 games. They go to New England, Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, and the Jets. New England, Green Bay, and Atlanta are almost sure losses, while the Jets will be very, very tough. 4 or 5 wins seems like where they’ll end up this season. It’s where they could have easily ended up last year without a true quarterback controversy.

Update: Subtracting a win from their total. John Skelton and Kevin Kolb have both looked even worse than expected this preseason, while their offensive line has actually managed to get worse with the loss of Levi Brown at left tackle.

Projection: 3-13 4th in NFC West

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St. Louis Rams 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Rams

Offense

After 3 abysmal seasons from 2007-2009, in which they went 6-42, the Rams went 7-9 in 2010 under rookie quarterback Sam Bradford and came up one game short of making the playoffs. Heading into 2011, expectations were high. However, last year ended up being more of the same old for the Rams as they finished 2-14. Injuries thinned an already poor receiving corps, while the offensive line gave up more sacks than any offensive line in the league thanks to a combination of injuries and generally poor play.

Sam Bradford regressed statistically, completing 191 of 358 (53.4%) for 2164 yards (6.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions after completing 354 of 590 (60.0%) for 3512 yards (6.0 YPA), 18 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 2010. He suffered a high ankle sprain week 6 and was never the same. He also grew very skittish in the pocket under so much pressure and on top of that, his receivers played terrible. A midseason addition of Brandon Lloyd helped, but by that point Bradford was already injured so it was too late.

Meanwhile, defensively, an insane amount of injuries at the cornerback position, with a whopping 10 players at the position finishing the year on IR, killed what was once a decent defense. The Rams played a lot of track meets and simply couldn’t keep up. Now in 2012, the Rams have a new Head Coach, an experienced and successful one, Jeff Fisher, but expectations still vary as it’s very tough to know what to expect from this team. The good news, the Rams have 2 1^st round picks in each of the next 2 seasons thanks to a pre-draft trade with the Washington Redskins, where they moved down from 6 to 2, allowing Washington to take Robert Griffin. If Bradford continues to struggle, however, and Griffin turns out to be what everyone thinks he’ll be, the Rams may end up regretting that move.

Quarterback

When evaluating Sam Bradford, I think you essentially have to throw out last year, which is unfortunate because that means the Rams don’t have nearly enough to accurate evaluate his potential in the NFL yet. However, it would be unfair to evaluate a quarterback based on a season in which he missed a lot of time, played hurt, and injuries thinned an already awful supporting cast.

Bradford was the #1 pick in 2010 and carried a talentless team to 7-9 and the brink of the playoffs that season as a mere rookie, setting the rookie record for pass attempts and completions. He’s their guy and rightfully so. I believe he’s fully capable of succeeding as long as the Rams get him the help he needs. If not, he runs the risk of turning into Alex Smith, who needed a miracle (named Jim Harbaugh) to finally get his career sorted out. Bradford is already on his 3^rd offensive coordinator in as many seasons.

Grade: B

Offensive line

The Rams allowed 34 sacks in their 7 win season in 2010 and 55 in their 2 win season last year. What was the difference? Well, the tackle play was the biggest problem. Both Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold finished the season on IR and neither was that good even when healthy, especially not Saffold, who allowed 11 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, 17 quarterback pressures and committed 10 penalties in just 8 ½ games. Smith, meanwhile, allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 11 quarterback pressures, and committed 4 penalties in 5 ½ games, while grading out below average as a run blocker.

In their absence, Adam Goldberg led the position in snaps played, playing both the left and right side and allowing 6 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures in 637 snaps played, while grading out below average as a run blocker. Saffold was a much better player in 2010 as a rookie, so it’s possible he could have been hurt even when he played and that he’ll bounce back this year. Smith is also young and played hurt, though he’s never really been that good. Given that, I’m not shocked that the Rams didn’t draft a tackle and move one of those two to left guard, but that might have been a good idea. Not only would it have given them more certainty on the outside, it would have upgraded the left guard position mightily.

Last season, Jacob Bell played awful at left guard. He didn’t make it through the full season, but allowed 4 sacks, 3 quarterback pressures, 12 penalties, while ranking well below average as a run blocker. His -15.8 rating on ProFootballFocus was 68^th at the position out of 77. In his absence late last season, the Rams moved center Jason Brown to guard. Brown wasn’t much better there than he was at center, grading out with a -15.8 overall, which was actually the worst of any Rams’ offensive lineman. With Brown at guard, Tony Wragge played center. Wragge made 9 starts at guard and center and graded out with a -10.8 overall. He finished the year 28^th among 35 centers, worse than Brown was at the position.

Bell and Brown are both gone now, as is Wragge. Wragge signed as a reserve in Baltimore, while Bell briefly signed in Cincinnati before retiring. Brown, meanwhile, is still available on the open market after the Rams cut him in the middle of a large free agent contract which he signed in 2009. The Rams signed Scott Wells to replace him in the middle and are obviously hoping he doesn’t have the same fate as Brown. Wells graded out 4^th among centers with the Packers last year, with a 17.9 rating. He should be an above average player and a key part of their offensive line this season.

The Rams signed Harvey Dahl to a similar contract last offseason and he was their only offensive lineman to grade out positively, playing every snap but one for the Rams, beginning the season at right guard and finishing at right tackle. He finished with a 0.5 rating at guard and a 2.7 rating at right tackle. He’ll play right guard this season and is their surest player upfront.

The other guard position is a different story. Bell left, which might be addition by subtraction, but they don’t have anyone proven to start there. In fact, they are holding an open competition for the job between up to 4 players, none of whom have any significant experience in the NFL. Bryan Mattison is the most experienced of the bunch as he made 4 starts at right guard last season, but he had never played in the NFL before that and finished with a -10.8 rating. 5^th round rookie Rokevious Watkins is also in the mix, which shows how thin they are at the position, as are Tim Barnes and Rob Turner, who have never played a snap in the NFL. You’d have a hard time finding a team with less talent at any single position than the Rams do at left guard.

Overall though, there’s some upside on the offensive line for the Rams, with the addition of Scott Wells and possible bounce back years for Rodger Saffold and Jason Smith. The line was better in 2010, allowing just 34 sacks. With the addition of Scott Wells this offseason, to go next to Harvey Dahl, an offseason addition after the 2010 season, the Rams already figure to be better on the offensive line, but tackles Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold could bounce back from injury plagued and injury shortened 2011 seasons. If one of them does that, that’s 3 offensive line spots locked down strong.

Grade: B-

Wide receivers

The Rams’ receivers are their worst group. How bad is it? The Rams leading returning receivers are Brandon Gibson and Danario Alexander and they may start 2 rookies at the position, a 2^nd round pick in Brian Quick and a 4^th round pick in Chris Givens. Danny Amendola will line up in the slot. That much we now, but that’s about it. That will be a welcome sight for Bradford. Amendola, Bradford’s leading target in 2010, barely played in 2011 with a torn triceps. They’ll need him to bounce back because there’s uncertainty all around him.

Quick and Givens are in the mix for the starting jobs, as are Gibson and Alexander. They also have Austin Pettis and Greg Salas, 3^rd and 4^th round picks in 2011 who barely played last year. Finally, they have a reclamation project, Steve Smith, who has struggled mightily with injuries over the last 2 years since his 100 catch year with the Giants in 2009. There’s a lot of mediocre for the Rams and some guys in competition for the starting job might actually end up losing a roster spot because there’s 8 guys for 6 spots. Quick has received a lot of praise this offseason from the coaching staff and might be the #1 option, but he’s just a raw 2^nd round rookie.

One player to watch for is tight end Lance Kendricks. Kendricks was a 2^nd round pick in 2011 and came into the year with high expectations after a strong camp and preseason. However, a combination of inconsistency at quarterback and his own struggles led to a very poor year for him. He caught just 28 passes for 352 yards, didn’t score, and somehow managed to drop 9 passes despite only being targeted 53 times. However, he was just a rookie and could have a bounce back year this year. He’s plenty talented and having a reliable tight end would help Bradford out a lot.

The receiving corps is a major problem still, but they have a lot of guys with potential (Brian Quick, Greg Sales, Austin Pettis, Chris Givens) so if one of them can step up, as well as possibly 2^nd year tight end Lance Kendricks, with the return of Danny Amendola, they won’t be terrible. They have the best quarterback in the division in my opinion and his offensive supporting cast won’t be as bleak this year.

Grade: C

Running Backs

Things are better on the ground, as has always been the case in recent years for the Rams. Steven Jackson is one of the great running backs of his era, with 9093 rushing yards in his career, currently 32^nd all time and another couple solid years would put him in the top-20 all time (Ricky Watters is 20^th with 10643 yards). However, he hasn’t made the playoffs since his rookie year and he has wasted his talent on mediocre Rams team after mediocre Rams team, all while never making a peep and complaining. It’s insane that a back as talented as him could only have topped 8 touchdowns once in his career, but what can you do when your team is never around the goal line.

As talented as he is, the arrow is trending down for Jackson right now. He turns 29 this offseason and has 2138 career carries. He’s right at the point where you start to worry that his abilities are going to fall off a cliff. History suggests that he might be another year or two away, but he’s definitely no sure thing this year. The Rams don’t seem to think so either as they used a 2^nd round pick on a running back named Isaiah Pead to be his potential successor.

As long as Jackson is still running well, Pead will just be a change of pace back and someone to keep Jackson fresh, but, as I said, he might not run well this season. Pead, however, was a reach in the 2^nd round. He’s not well rounded enough to be a feature back. He’s better off being a 3^rd down/change of pace back who also contributes as a return man. If Jackson gets hurt or something and Pead has to carry the load, they could really struggle on the ground, in addition to in the air. However, while things aren’t as good looking at running back as they once were for the Rams, they should still be able to run alright.

Grade: B

Defense

Things are better offensively than defensively. Yes, they allowed 25.4 points per game last year, good for 26^th in the league, but at least it wasn’t last like their offense. They also suffered countless injuries at cornerback and should be much better there this season with guys returning, as well as the offseason acquisition of Cortland Finnegan. That being said, you don’t have the league’s worst points differential (-214) unless you suck on both sides of the ball so things aren’t too great defensively for the Rams.

Defensive line

The defensive line is the Rams’ most talented group, which makes sense because this is a Jeff Fisher coached team and he always loves to have a stacked bunch up front. Chris Long is below average as a run stopper, but he actually leads the league in quarterback pressures over the past 2 years with 115. He graded out with a 16.8, last year, 14^th at his position, but his 30.5 rating as a pass rusher was 4^th at his position. Unfortunately, his -10.5 rating against the run was last.

Opposite him, the Rams will start Robert Quinn, the 14^th overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. Quinn was solid in a situational role last year and will move into the starting lineup now that James Hall is gone. Quinn managed 6 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures in 341 pass rush snaps last year (10.6%) and some, including ESPN Draft Guru Mel Kiper, expect him to have a 10 sack season this year. That’s definitely possible given his talents and what he showed last year, but he’ll have to improve against the run as his -7.3 rating against the run was 4^th worst at his position.

With Quinn moving into the starting lineup, free agent acquisition William Hayes will play Quinn’s old role. Hayes is coming over from Tennessee and struggled last year with a new Head Coach and defensive coordinator, with a -6.7 rating, but posted a 9.5 rating in 2010 under Jeff Fisher. He’s an excellent fit for their wide 9 scheme and managed 2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 326 pass rush snaps in 2010 (9.2%). The Rams managed 39 sacks last year despite always playing from behind and despite having cornerbacks that couldn’t cover. That number could easily go into the 40s this year.

However, the Rams are putting in place a wide 9 scheme, which is fundamentally weak against the run. Long and Quinn are weak against the run to begin with so it’ll be up to the defensive tackles and linebackers to help them stuff the run. The Rams allowed 4.8 YPC last year, 28^th in the league and a good pass rush is only useful when playing with a lead, which they won’t have a lot of this season.

The Rams cut both starters at defensive tackle from last year. Both Justin Bannan and Fred Robbins actually graded out well above average as run stuffers, but combined for 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 427 combined pass rush snaps (3.7%). They were 36 and 34 respectively anyway and though they were starters, they were essentially just situational players as the Rams used a lot of rotation on the defensive line.

They figure to do a lot of the same this year. With Robbins and Bannan going out, Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers are coming in as starters. Langford has spent his entire career in a 3-4 as a defensive end in Miami, but he’s an above average player who had a 1.7 rating last year , a 14.4 rating in 2010, a 15.7 rating in 2009, and a 7.6 rating in 2008 and he figures to be a good fit in a wide 9 4-3 scheme as a defensive tackle. Brockers, meanwhile, was the 14^th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He’s still very raw as a pass rusher, but he is strong against the run.

Their top reserves, who will rotate in, are Dorrell Scott, one of their top reserves last season, and Trevor Laws who had a decent year as a rotational player in Philadelphia’s wide 9 scheme last year. Overall, the Rams’ defensive line should have a solid year, especially in rushing the passer. With added talent in the secondary and what should be a slightly improved offense, as well as the addition of Jeff Fisher and Kendall Langford, they should have a sacks total in the mid 40s after 39 last year. However, they should rank among the worst teams in the league against the run again.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Poor linebacker play was also a big part of their poor play against the run last season and it doesn’t look like it’ll be any better this year. Middle linebacker James Laurinaitis is a very good player who has graded out with a 1.7, a 14.2, and a 5.6 in his first 3 seasons in the NFL. He’s totaled 376 tackles in 3 years and has held up very well in coverage. What’s even more impressive is the fact that he’s done this with no help around him at linebacker.

This year will be no different. Chris Chamberlain and Bobby Poppinga are both gone and have been replaced with more mediocre players. Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Rocky McIntosh, and Mario Haggan will all compete for the 2 outside spots. Haggan was a solid backup in Denver last year with some starting experience, but he’s never been anything better than mediocre and he’s now 32. Dunbar, meanwhile, played both inside and outside for the Saints last year and posted a -26.3 rating overall in 807 snaps.

McIntosh might be the most promising of the bunch. He was benched by the Redskins last year, but he was never a good fit for their 3-4 defense. He was a solid starter for them in a 4-3 before they switched to a 3-4 in 2010. He’s still only 29, 30 in November, so he could be an alright starter for them this season. The other two are not nearly as promising.

Meanwhile, they have little depth at middle linebacker so if anything happens to James Laurinaitis, this is easily the worst linebacking corps in the NFL. Their top reserve at middle linebacker is 7^th round rookie Aaron Brown, though I suppose they could use the loser of the outside linebacker competition as their middle linebacker if Laurinaitis goes down.

Grade: C+

Defensive Backs

The Rams had a whopping 10 cornerbacks go on IR last season, but still managed to rank 19^th against the pass with 7.4 YPA. Their strong defensive line had a lot to do with that though, as their cornerbacks didn’t play well. Depth was an issue going into the season behind starters Ron Bartell and Bradley Fletcher. Bartell and Fletcher barely played, with Bartell going down week 1 and Fletcher going down week 4.

Their leaders in snaps played at the position were Justin King, Josh Gordy, and Al Harris. King was absolutely awful as his -22.6 rating ranked dead last among cornerbacks. He allowed 43 completions on 68 attempts (63.2%), 571 yards (8.4 YPA), 6 touchdowns, 1 interception, 2 deflections and 6 penalties. Gordy and Harris were slightly better, with Harris actually grading out above average, but he retired this offseason, while Gordy, who posted a -8.9 rating from last season, figures to be no higher than 4^th on the depth chart this year.

This is because the Rams made improving their secondary a focus of their offseason. They signed Cortland Finnegan from the Titans, who rated 3^rd at his position on ProFootballFocus with a 15.8 rating. Fletcher has also returned from injury and will compete to start opposite Finnegan. Fletcher graded out above average with a 1.7 rating in 2010, but is coming off a torn ACL. He’ll compete with Janoris Jenkins, a talented player who only fell to the 2^nd round of the 2012 NFL Draft for character reasons. However, he’s still only a rookie so he could struggle if forced to start. Gordy could provide depth, if he beats out 3^rd round rookie Trumaine Johnson for the #4 cornerback job. Johnson can also play safety, where he might be needed more.

Free safety Quintin Mikell is a solid player who was one of the bright spots on their defense last year after being signed from Philadelphia as a free agent. He graded out with a -2.8, which is well below the 18.1 rating he had in Philadelphia in 2010. Still, he was much better than strong safety Darian Stewart. Stewart’s -15.5 rating was 3^rd worst at his position last year in his 1^st year as a starter. He was actually alright in coverage, but missed 20 tackles, 3^rd most in the league regardless of position. Considering he only had 65 solo tackles, he essentially whiffed on 25% of his tackle attempts. He’ll could be pushed by 3^rd round rookie Trumaine Johnson, who can play cornerback, in addition to safety.

Things aren’t nearly as bleak in the secondary this year as it was last year, with additions and the return of guys from injury. On top of that, they’ve always had a good pass rush and this year should be no different with Chris Long opposite Robert Quinn and William Hayes, who played well under Jeff Fisher in 2010.

They also add Kendall Langford at defensive tackle, to give them more pass rush there. They got next to no pass rush from that spot in 2011. Michael Brockers is raw as a pass rusher, but can stop the run from day 1. One of their safety spots and their two outside linebacker spots are still weaknesses, but this is not a bad defense at all.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Jeff Fisher was out of the league last year after being fired by the Tennessee Titans, but he remains a solid Head Coach. He held out for the right opportunity and was a hot commodity on the open market this offseason, deciding on St. Louis over Miami. He finished with a 142-120 record over 16+ seasons in Tennessee and was the longest tenured Head Coach in the league when he was finally fired. In his 16 full seasons, he’s finished at .500 or above 11 times. He made the playoffs 6 times, finishing 5-6 with one trip to the Super Bowl in 1999.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Rams looked poised for a breakout in 2011 after winning 7 games and nearly the division in 2010, but like so many teams who jump 6+ games in a season, they regressed in 2011. They faced a tough schedule and on top of that had a perfect storm of injuries, most notably in the defensive backfield and on the offensive line.

Young, talented quarterback Sam Bradford struggled behind a poor offensive line and also got hurt himself, predictably, but the line was better in 2010, allowing just 34 sacks. With the addition of Scott Wells this offseason, to go next to Harvey Dahl, an offseason addition after the 2010 season, the Rams already figure to be better on the offensive line, but tackles Jason Smith and Rodger Saffold could bounce back from injury plagued and injury shortened 2011 seasons. If one of them does that, that’s 3 offensive line spots locked down strong.

In the defensive backfield, they return Bradley Fletcher, add one of the league’s top cornerbacks in Cortland Finnegan, and also bring in Janoris Jenkins, a talented player who fell to the 2^nd round for character reasons. They’ve always had a good pass rush and this year should be no different with Chris Long opposite Robert Quinn and William Hayes, who played well under Jeff Fisher in 2010.

Offensively, the receiving corps is a major problem still, but they have a lot of guys with potential so if one of them can step up, as well as possibly 2^nd year tight end Lance Kendricks, with the return of Danny Amendola, that won’t be terrible. They have the best quarterback in the division in my opinion and his offensive supporting cast won’t be as bleak this year. They’ll also be able to run the ball with the duo of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead. I expect them to have their break out year this year, with a more talented bunch, an easier schedule, lower expectations, better health, and a new Head Coach.

They play in an easier division and could win 3 or 4 games in it. Outside of the division, they host the Redskins, Packers, Patriots, Jets, and Vikings. They could beat the Vikings and Jets pretty easily and while Washington figures to be good this year, the Rams were a good home team in 2010 so they could win that one too. On the road outside of the division, they go to Detroit, Chicago, Miami, Buffalo, and Tampa Bay. It’s not the toughest overall schedule at all. They can be competitive. With the exception of 2009, every year since 2003 has seen one team have a 7 game swing in either direction. The Rams are my pick to be that team this year.

Projection: 9-7 1st in NFC West

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Pittsburgh Steelers 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Steelers

Offense

In a league full of parity, the Steelers are one of the few teams that have managed to remain good every season. Since drafting Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have won at least 8 games in all 8 seasons, at least 10 games in 6 seasons and at least 12 games in 4 seasons, including a 12-4 record last year. Since 2004, they have an 89-39 record, 2^nd to only the Patriots over that time period.

And it’s not all about Ben Roethlisberger. Sure, Roethlisberger is one of the game’s elite quarterbacks, but the Steelers have had one of the three best defenses, in terms of points per game allowed, 6 times since 2004. Not so coincidentally, those were the same 6 seasons they had 10+ wins. Last year was no different as they had the league’s best scoring defense (14.2 points per game) and the league’s best yardage defense (4348 yards). Even more amazing is that they did this despite a mere 15 takeaways, actually fewest in the league. Since 2002, 38 teams have had 20 or fewer takeaways in a season. Those teams had, on average, 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

The Steelers have a reputation for being old, but they do have a lot of young talent thanks to consistently strong drafting over the past few years. Yes, veterans like Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Brett Keisel, etc, are over the hill in football years, but they also have talented young players like Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons. Last year’s draft looks equally strong. On paper, it appears they got 2 starting offensive linemen in David DeCastro and Mike Adams in the first two rounds and 3^rd and 4^th round picks Sean Spence and Alameda Ta’amu could have immediate impacts defensively as rookies.

The two offensive linemen were significant because Ben Roethlisberger has taken 314 sacks in his 8 year career, despite being very mobile and having strong pocket awareness. With DeCastro and Adams adding to an already improving offensive line with 2011 2^nd round pick Marcus Gilbert and 2010 1^st round pick Maurkice Pouncey, Big Ben might have the most talented offensive line he’s ever had in front of him. With what should be yet another strong defensive group, the Steelers look poised to have another great season in a weak AFC.

Quarterback

Only 6 current NFL quarterbacks have won Super Bowls as starters: Tom Brady (3), Eli Manning (2), Ben Roethlisberger (2), Peyton Manning (1), Drew Brees (1), and Aaron Rodgers (1). Not so coincidentally those might be the top 6 quarterbacks in the NFL, in any order. However, Roethlisberger is often mentioned close to the bottom of that 6 because of how good Pittsburgh’s defense has always been. Nonetheless, he is one of the game’s best quarterbacks.

He ranks 4^th all-time in regular season winning percentage, .709 (80-33), behind only Tom Brady, Roger Staubach, and Joe Montana. He also has a 10-4 postseason record. At only 30 years of age, he ranks 4^th among active quarterbacks in regular season wins behind only Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees (assuming you don’t count Kerry Collins and Donovan McNabb as active). He has completed 63.1% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA and 165 touchdowns to 100 interceptions. Possibly most impressive is how he’s been able to do this despite poor offensive line play in front of him.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

I’ve already mentioned the additions of David DeCastro and Mike Adams through the draft. They’ll likely start at right guard and left tackle respectively. DeCastro is arguably the top interior line prospect of the last decade. He fell to the Steelers at 24 because he doesn’t play a position with high positional value, but he should be one of the best players at his position from the word go and remain as such for the next decade.

Meanwhile, Adams has elite talent (he was the #2 offensive tackle of his recruiting class between Tyron Smith and Matt Kalil, two top-10 picks), but fell to the Steelers in the 2^nd round for character reasons. He was a disappointment in his time at Ohio State, was oft suspended, and failed a drug test at The Combine, where he reportedly didn’t interview well. The Steelers rarely draft guys with character issues so maybe they know something we don’t.

Adams will start opposite Marcus Gilbert, whether that be at left tackle or right tackle. He is currently penciled in as the left tackle because that’s his natural spot and Gilbert played well at right tackle. Gilbert is the more experienced one so they may swap sides in Training Camp if the Steelers feel it necessary.

Gilbert was a 2^nd round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and played alright in 14 starts at right tackle last year. He allowed 8 sacks and was below average on ProFootballFocus as a run blocker, but he graded out above average as a pass blocker. This is because the mere 2 quarterback hits and 11 quarterback pressures he allowed are a more accurate representation of how he protected Ben Roethlisberger. He also committed 6 penalties. He had a moderate -4.2 rating overall and could be better in his 2^nd season.

If either one of those players struggle, the Steelers may call up Max Starks. Starks is an experienced player who knows the system. He started 12 games for them at left tackle last year after the Steelers signed him in October. He was previously unsigned because of weight and durability questions, but he played pretty well. He had a -2.2 rating with 5 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures allowed. He was penalized 5 times. He’s once again unsigned because he tore his ACL in January, but the Steelers are monitoring his progress closely and may view him as an insurance option.

Another insurance option could be Willie Colon. Colon has experience at right tackle, but will play left guard this season. With a 25.1 rating, he was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd best offensive tackle in 2009. However, he has only played 1 game over the last 2 seasons thanks to various injuries. If he gets hurt again, the Steelers will turn to Ramon Foster. Foster actually led the team in snaps played on the offensive line with 1005 snaps played and had an average 0.6 rating. He’s not a bad insurance option.

Meanwhile, center Maurkice Pouncey is an overrated player who has made Pro Bowls in each of his 1^st two seasons in the league. That being said, he’s still a solid starter who has posted solid ratings (-4.2 and -1.2 respectively) in 2010 and 2011. With the additions of DeCastro and Adams, and the return of Colon, the Steelers should be much improved up front. They are only returning 2 offensive linemen from a miserable offensive line in 2011 and those two, Pouncey and Gilbert, are young players who upside who played pretty well last year.

Bums like Chris Kemoeatu (-14.1), Doug Legursky (-11.5), Jonathan Scott (-18.3), and Trai Essex (-11.9) are either not on the team anymore or buried on the depth chart. This could easily be the best offensive line they’ve ever had in front of Roethlisberger. For a quarterback who is sacked and injured as often as Roethlisberger, that has to be music to his ears. Unlike in previous years, he might be able to make it through the season without getting hurt, missing time or being limited, and he should have more time in the pocket, should he choose to use it.

Grade: B

Running Backs

An improved offensive line will also help their running game. Yes, the Steelers have lost Rashard Mendenhall to a torn ACL, but they may have an even better running back waiting in the wings in Isaac Redman. Mendenhall is an overrated player so his torn ACL may be a blessing in disguise for them. Mendenhall has a career 4.1 YPC, while Redman has an average of 4.5 YPC.

With Mendenhall out last year for most of week 17 and all of their playoff loss to the Broncos, Redman had 92 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries and 121 yards on 17 carries. Those 121 yards would have been the 2^nd most yards Mendenhall had all season and the 7.1 YPC he averaged in that game would have been Mendenhall’s highest total since week 3 of the 2010 season. On top of that, the 213 combined yards rushing he had in those 2 games would have been the most productive back-to-back two game stretch since weeks 3-4 of 2010 for Mendenhall.

Redman is also the more well rounded back. Despite less playing time, he matched the 18 catches that Mendenhall had in 2011. He also was more trusted by the coaching staff to pass protect, despite his backup status, with 94 pass protection snaps to 42 for Mendenhall. As you can expect, ProFootballFocus did grade him as the superior pass protector.

They also graded him as the superior runner and player overall (playoffs included), despite his backup status and the fact that he played fewer snaps. This makes sense as Redman averaged 3.3 yards after contact as opposed to 2.5 for Mendenhall, averaged 4.7 YPC to 4.1 YPC, and broke 25 tackles on 127 carries (19.7%) as opposed to 30 broken tackles on 228 carries (13.2%) for Mendenhall.

The Steelers were already starting to take notice of Redman’s talent last year, giving him 91 carries to Mendenhall’s 220 even before week 17. Redman also played 318 snaps to Mendenhall’s 457, as he played more as a blocker and receiver out of the backfield (which goes back to my point that Redman is more well rounded).

Mendenhall is expected to miss at least the first 6 games of the season as he’s expected to start the season on the PUP, but Redman is the more talented back and might not give Mendenhall, a free agent after the season, his starting job back even when Mendenhall returns from injury. There’s serious fantasy upside with Redman and major upside for the Steelers’ running game with a more talented back behind a better offensive line. Depth is the one major issue as they currently only have Jonathan Dwyer, John Clay, and Chris Rainey behind Redman, three unproven players. However, when Mendenhall returns, he’ll provide adequate depth.

Grade: B

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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

The Steelers also have a lot of talent at wide receiver and, unlike at running back, that is currently obvious to anyone who knows anything about football. Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown both had 1000 yard seasons last year and both are still young, a testament to how well the Steelers have drafted in the past few years. Contrary to popular belief, they have plenty of young talent.

Wallace, a 2009 3^rd round pick, caught 72 passes for 1193 yards and 8 touchdowns last year, his 2^nd straight 1000 yard season. He’s definitely a proven player, but the one concern with him is that he holds out deep into Training Camp and gets out of shape. He has yet to sign his restricted free agent tender as of this writing and doesn’t appear to have any plans to do so.

Brown, meanwhile, caught 69 passes for 1108 yards and 2 touchdowns last year. The 2010 6^th round pick remains a one year wonder, but my only concern with him is the mere 2 touchdowns he had last year. That number should increase in 2012 as the combo of Hines Ward/Emmanuel Sanders/Jerricho Cotchery/Mewelde Moore/David Johnson/Weslye Saunders won’t vulture 9 touchdowns again.

The Steelers also possess solid depth behind the starters. Hines Ward is gone, but he was a shadow of his former self last year before retiring this offseason. Many predicted Emmanuel Sanders to have the kind of breakout year that Brown did in 2011, before Brown had an amazing Preseason. Sanders was a 3^rd round pick the same year Brown was a 6^th round pick, 2010, and he is a talented player who has had issues with injuries. If he can stay healthy, he could have a career high across the board as the Steelers’ primary slot receiver. His current career highs are 28 catches for 376 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2010. He also caught 22 passes for 288 yards and 2 scores last year.

Behind their 3 young receivers is the veteran Jerricho Cotchery. Cotchery caught 82 passes for 1130 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2007 for the Jets and was a starter as recently as 2009. He’s only 30 and caught 16 passes for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns in a situational role last year. He seems fine with a limited role, despite his past success, and is one of the better #4 receivers in the league.

The Steelers also have a solid pass catching tight end in Heath Miller. Miller is never mentioned among the best at his position, but he’s certainly one of the most consistent. He’s caught at least 42 passes for 512 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of the last 5 years, maxing out with 76 catches for 789 yards and 6 scores in 2009. He’s also one of the league’s best blockers and can play on every down. In fact, only Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew, and Jason Witten played more snaps than Miller did in the regular season last year, with 1032 and his all around game got him ranked 5^th among tight ends on ProFootballFocus with a 13.0 rating, behind Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, and Aaron Hernandez.

New offensive coordinator Todd Haley likes to use a lot of two tight end sets so he brought over his boy toy Leonard Pope from Kansas City. Haley and Pope worked together in Arizona and Kansas City before Pittsburgh so they’re obviously very comfortable with each other. Pope is a solid blocker who doesn’t offer much as a receiver.

Still, overall, the Steelers have an elite quarterback throwing to an incredibly talented group of receivers and working behind arguably the best offensive line of his career. Isaac Redman has breakout star written all over him behind an improved run blocking offensive line so the Steelers look to have one of the best and most well balanced offenses in the league. They averaged a mere 20.3 points per game last year, 21^st in the league, but if you don’t include the 4 games that Roethlisberger was out or limited with an ankle injury, they averaged 22.3 points per game, which would have ranked 17^th. They should be improved on even that this year and could be a top-15 or even top-10 offense. They certainly have the talent. That will be an excellent compliment for their amazing defense. They look poised to improve on the +98 points differential they had in 2012, good for 7^th in the league.

Grade: A-

Defense

As I’ve already mentioned, the Steelers have ranked in the top 3 in fewest points allowed 6 times in the past 8 years. That’s insane. Dick LeBeau and company really know how to field an awesome defense. After ranking 1^st in the league last year in both points and yards, they look poised to have a 7^th in 9 years in 2012, especially since they accomplished that last year despite the fewest turnovers in the league and despite several key injuries (I’ll get into those later).

Defensive Line

Casey Hampton is a key injury, but he wasn’t what I was referring to. Hampton got hurt late in the season, tearing his ACL in their playoff loss to the Steelers. He looks poised to start the year on the PUP and miss at least 6 games. He’s a solid player, but his absence isn’t enough for me not to consider them a top-3 defense. He only played 450 snaps last year as the soon to be 35 year old is really just a situational run stopper at this point in his career. He had a 4.5 rating last year.

Top backup Steve McClendon, who actually had a higher rating in less playing time (7.8), will split time with 4^th round rookie Alameda Ta’amu. Ta’amu is more of a true nose tackle like Hampton at 350 pounds, while the 280 pound McClendon is a situational player. They should be able to hold down the fort just fine. They’re probably the future at the position as well.

Outside at defensive end in their 3-4, the Steelers used a rotation of 3 guys in 2011, with Aaron Smith missing most of the year with injuries. Those players were Ziggy Hood, Brett Keisel, and Cameron Heyward. Smith was cut this offseason, but they won’t miss him much. Injuries limited him to just 175 snaps in 2012. Keisel was easily the best of the bunch in 2011. In fact, he was one of the best in all of the league with a 26.8 rating, good for 5^th in the league.

That’s why Keisel was retained heading into his age 34 season and not part of a veteran purge. Still, as he’s an aging veteran, Keisel should see less playing time in 2012, in favor of more playing time for 2011 1^st round pick Cameron Heyward. Heyward was pretty nondescript in limited playing time in 2011, but he has plenty of upside. The 3^rd member of the group was Ziggy Hood. Hood played the most out of the 3 with 879 snaps, but that might not be the case in 2012 if he continues to play like he did in 2011.

Hood, a 2009 1^st round pick, was the worst in the league at his position with a -21.4 rating. He was especially bad as a pass rusher, managing just 1 sack, 4 quarterback hits, and 10 quarterback pressures on 522 pass rush snaps, for a pathetic 2.9% rate. However, Hood spent the offseason getting into shape, losing 18 pounds of fat, gaining 20 pounds of muscle and dropping his body fat from 24% to 18%. That could translate to him having a breakout season. At the same time, it wouldn’t shock me if he also ceded some playing time to Heyward. With Keisel unlikely to remain with the team after the season, this is a make or break team for Hood because the Steelers could use another early pick on a defensive end in the 2013 draft and make Hood a rotational player if he doesn’t prove himself heading into his 5^th NFL season.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

The linebacking corps were where the major injuries were last season. Normally, they have an elite group there, but last year that was not the case. James Harrison missed 5 games with injury, LaMarr Woodley missed 6 entire games and most of another, and James Farrior missed 2 games. With their two starting rush linebackers missing large parts of the season, stud middle linebacker Lawrence Timmons had to play out of position outside and that threw him off. With Timmons playing a lot outside and Farrior missing time, Larry Foote had to play more than they would have liked, playing 437 snaps at middle linebacker. Top reserve Jason Worilds also had to play more than they would have liked.

Timmons was the NFL’s best middle linebacker in 2010 according to ProFootballFocus, with a 31.6 rating, but struggled in 2011 with a -4.2 rating overall. That was largely because of a -9.4 rating as a pass rusher. He really struggled to get to the quarterback from the outside. As a middle linebacker, he actually had a 3.8 rating when he did play there. He should continue to be one of the best middle linebackers in the league in 2012 and beyond.

LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison are also normally among the best at their positions. In 2011, they ranked 2^nd and 5^th respectively with a 41.8 rating and a 29.8 rating respectively. Both were slowed by injuries, but still played pretty well with a 27.8 rating and a 10.2 rating respectively. Woodley should bounce back in 2011, but the concern with Harrison is that he’s 34. He’s an amazing football player and athlete so I’ll believe he’ll continue to beat the odds and age until he proves he can’t.

Their top reserve at this position is Jason Worilds. The 2010 2^nd round pick played a lot in the absence of Woodley and Harrison and played well. He had 3 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 20 quarterback pressures on 208 pass rush snaps (14.4%). If Harrison starts to decline, he could see an increase in snaps. They should feel confident in him.

Their 4^th starting linebacker is Larry Foote. Foote will start in place of James Farrior, a 37 year old veteran cut by the Steelers this offseason. Farrior was a shell of his former self last year anyway with a -6.5 rating. Foote wasn’t much better though. The 32 year old had a -6.0 rating last year and the veteran probably won’t be any better this season. 3^rd round rookie Sean Spence could come in on passing downs for Foote and maybe even a bigger role as the season goes on if Foote struggles. Still, with Woodley, Harrison, and Timmons, this is one of the league’s best linebacking corps.

Grade: A-

[yard_barker]

Secondary

The Steelers’ had the league’s best pass defense last year, both in terms of yards (2751) and YPA (5.6). They, of course, did this in spite of minimal takeaways, but also in spite of an uncharacteristic 35 sacks. They should have more this season and could rank near the top against the pass again, in spite of what the 300 yards they allowed to Tim Tebow in the playoffs would suggest (their only 300 yard game allowed all season).

Ike Taylor was awful in that playoff loss to Denver, surrendering 204 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts and 4 completions. He was also penalized twice in that game. However, he was much better in the regular season. He had the league’s 3^rd best QB rating allowed among cornerbacks who played 75% of their team’s snaps, a 54.8 rating. He allowed just 40 completions on 96 attempts (41.7%) for 455 yards (4.7 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. The only problem was his 9 penalties.

Troy Polamalu was ProFootballFocus’ #1 safety in 2011 with a 19.2 rating. He really is the key to their defense. They’re noticeably worse when he’s not out there. Next to him is Ryan Clark. Clark is another fine safety and he was missed in their loss to Denver as he had to sit out because of a blood disorder that makes it unsafe for him to play at high altitudes. The only issue with these two players is age as they are heading into their age 31 and 33 seasons respectively. However, Polamalu is still young enough that it wouldn’t be unrealistic to expect another excellent season from him and that’s really the key.

The 4^th member of their starting defensive backs is still yet to be determined, that being their #2 cornerback opposite Taylor. 3 players, Keenan Lewis, Curtis Brown, and Cortez Allen are competing for that spot with William Gay signing in Arizona. Gay was a decent player, but not irreplaceable. Lewis, a 2009 3^rd round pick, is currently the favorite and he’s reportedly having a strong offseason. Brown and Allen were 3^rd and 4^th round picks respectively in the 2011 NFL Draft and are not as experienced as Lewis, who was their #3 cornerback last year. He played 404 snaps last year and was alright so he could be a solid starter next year, especially with an improved front 7. Brown and Allen will be left as depth cornerbacks and I think you can do a lot worse than those two.

All in all, I think the Steelers are poised to have another top-3 scoring defense. They had the league’s best scoring defense last year and it’s scary to think how much better they could have been had they gotten just a few more than the 15 takeaways they had last year and if they had everyone was healthy. Their defense could resemble that this year. Takeaways and giveaways are fairly unpredictable on a yearly basis and the last 38 teams with fewer than 20 had 7.53 more takeaways the next season (and won 1.41 more games).

Given how talented this defense is, I wouldn’t be surprised if they exceeded even that and got around 30 takeaways. They had 35 in 2010. Their age is overstated. Yes, they lost veterans like James Farrior, Aaron Smith, and William Gay, but none of them had much of a positive impact last year. Yes, Casey Hampton could miss time with injury, but the same thing goes for him. Yes, Brett Keisel and James Harrison are getting up there in age, but they’re also coming off amazing seasons so they should be able to keep it up. Yes, Polamalu and Clark are over the hill in football years, but they’re not that old yet, especially not Polamalu, the more important one. They have plenty of young talent and plenty of talent overall defensively.

Grade: B+

Head Coach

It’s possible to be a lifelong Steelers fan 40 years or younger and not know what’s it’s like to have their team’s Head Coach on the hot seat. Chuck Noll coached successfully from 1969 to 1991, going 193-148 and winning 4 Super Bowls and when he retired, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Kansas City by the name of Bill Cowher. Cowher coached from 1992 to 2006, going 149-90 and winning a Super Bowl and when he retired in 2006, they hired a young defensive coordinator from Minnesota by the name of Mike Tomlin. Tomlin has gone 55-25 since and won the organization’s 6^th Super Bowl title (most all time).

It’s tough to compare anyone to Cowher and Noll, but Tomlin can be mentioned in the same sentence with those two in a favorable way. He’s one of the league’s premier Head Coaches and possibly the most exciting part for Steelers fans is that he only just turned 40. It could be another decade plus before the Steelers have to worry about the Head Coaching position. On top of that, they also have one of the league’s best coordinators in Dick LeBeau, who coordinates the defense. The 74 year old has been there since 2004 and has 2 Super Bowl rings in that time.

Grade: A

Overall

The Steelers keep cranking out good draft after good draft and even though they have some aging players, they have plenty of talented young players to make up for it. Offensively, they have an elite quarterback throwing to a great group of receivers, playing behind arguably the best offensive line of his career and a budding star at running back set to run behind an improved run blocking offensive line. Defensively, they are coming off a season in which they led the league in fewest points per game allowed, despite a mere 15 takeaways and injuries to key players.

They are one of the league’s most consistent franchises and still a model to young teams around the league. They have six 10+ win seasons in 8 years and four 12+ win seasons in that same time period. In a weak AFC, they seem poised to have another very strong season. Baltimore took some hits this offseason so while the Steelers didn’t win the division last year, the 12 wins they had last year should win the division this year and should be replicable.

Both Baltimore and Cincinnati could be inferior this season and Cleveland still isn’t very good so they could have another 4-2 or better record in the division. 5-1 is also a possibility. Outside the division, they host the Jets, Eagles, Redskins, Chiefs, and Chargers. The Eagles could be tough, but they should go 4-1 in those games since they’re all at home. They then go to Denver, Oakland, Tennessee, the Giants, and Dallas. That seems like about 4-1 or so. They’re better than all of those teams on paper I think, but you never know what can happen, especially when you go on the road. 12-4 seems right.

Update: Moving Pittsburgh down just a game. David DeCastro probably won’t play this season after tearing his MCL and left tackle Mike Adams has really struggled this preseason. Isaac Redman is also hurt and Rashard Mendenhall still will miss at least 3-4 games. Mike Wallace held out throughout most of the offseason and on the defensive side of the ball, Jason Worilds, James Harrison, and Brett Kiesel are all dealing with injuries. I still like them, but I’m moving them down.

Projection: 11-5 1^st in AFC North

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Baltimore Ravens 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Ravens

Offense

Joe Flacco and the Ravens finally got over the hump last year. Flacco beat Ben Roethlisberger head-to-head twice, something he had never done once in his career prior. The Ravens won the division with a record of 12-4 and outlasted the Steelers in the playoffs. However, a missed chip shot field goal by kicker Billy Cundiff cost the Ravens a chance at sending the AFC Championship matchup with the Patriots to overtime. The Patriots have gotten the AFC’s top seed in back-to-back seasons and made the Super Bowl out of the AFC last year. Having gotten over the hump that was the Steelers, the Ravens now have another hump to get over.

For as good as their 12-4 record was last year, the Ravens really lacked consistency and really played poorly at times. Joe Flacco actually had arguably the worst season of his career, as his 57.6% completion percentage and 6.7 YPA were career lows and his 20-12 TD:INT ratio was his worst since his rookie year in 2008. His 80.9 QB rating was also his worst since 2008.

As a team, meanwhile, the Ravens lost by double digits to an average Tennessee team, lost to a terrible Jacksonville team, needed a big comeback to beat a then terrible Cardinals team in Baltimore, and lost to non-playoff teams in San Diego and Seattle. As impressive as their 7-1 record against playoff teams (including playoffs) was, the Ravens really seemed to play down to the level of their competition and followed up strong showings with terrible ones. And while they had a pristine 9-0 record at home (including playoffs), they went just 4-5 on the road.

Quarterback

Heading into his 5^th season, Flacco is really facing a make or break year. Yes, he got over the Pittsburgh hump last year, but he wasn’t that impressive in doing it and statistically he was pretty average all year. He’s always been a winner, but he’s always had a lot of help. This offseason he proclaimed himself the best quarterback in the NFL and demanded top-5 quarterback money from the Ravens in contract talks, which they pretty much laughed at.

With a weakened supporting cast, particularly on defense due to age and injury, Flacco will have more pressure on him than ever before. If he can thrive in the face of it, he’ll get himself a large contract this offseason and be considered one of the game’s elites. If not, he’ll be lucky to get Alex Smith money as he’ll remain just an average quarterback and a game manager who can’t do it without a strong supporting cast.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Ray Rice is arguably the best running back in the game with Adrian Peterson’s future still up in the air after a torn ACL. Last year, the Ravens let touchdown vulture Willis McGahee go and Rice officially became an every down back and he had an amazing season, rushing for 1364 yards and 12 touchdowns on 291 carries and catching another 76 balls for 704 yards and 3 touchdowns.

The only issue with Rice is that he has yet to sign his franchise tender. He reportedly wants to be paid like Adrian Peterson, which I’m not even sure Adrian Peterson deserves. Rice lacks any real leverage as he can’t sign a long term deal after July 16^th, but if he holds out deep into Training Camp he risks becoming out of shape like Chris Johnson was last year. It’s certainly a situation to monitor, but I’m not too worried.

Hopefully offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will remember to give Rice the ball this year. After a pathetically coached loss to the Seahawks, in which star running back Rice carried the ball a mere 5 times, Rice complained to the coaching staff and received 20+ carries in 8 of the team’s final 9 games, including playoffs. He rushed 195 times for 932 yards (4.8 YPC) and 6 touchdowns, while catching 35 passes for 265 yards and another score. Over 16 games, that’s 1657 yards and 11 touchdowns on 347 carries with 62 catches for 471 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Behind Rice, the Ravens have two running backs competing for the #2 job. Bernard Pierce was a 3^rd round pick of the Ravens this past April, which suggested that he’d be the primary backup. However, he reportedly hasn’t been impressive in practice thus far while Anthony Allen, a 2011 7^th round pick, has been. Allen carried the ball 3 times last year. Whoever wins that job will be a pure backup to Rice like Ricky Williams was last year. He’ll spell Rice for a few carries per game and take over if Rice gets hurt, which rarely happens. In 3 years as a lead back, Rice has never missed a game.

Grade: A

Wide Receivers

It’s good that Joe Flacco has Ray Rice to lean on in the passing game because he doesn’t have a lot of receiving talent. That’s part of the reason why I say he’ll have to carry this team this year. All of Flacco’s receivers are either unproven and inexperienced or washed up. Torrey Smith is a receiver of the 1^st variety. The speedster had a strong rookie year last year with 50 catches for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns after being a 2nd round pick in 2011, despite playing the entire season with a hernia injury. In his last 7 games he was even better, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns.

There’s definitely 1000 yard potential for Smith, but potential is a key word. The 2^nd year receiver has never been a #1 receiver yet and may not live up to his potential. At the same time, there’s definitely good upside with him (think Mike Wallace’s 2^nd season with the Steelers) so he’s a name to know, especially in the mid rounds of fantasy football drafts.

If Torrey Smith has the potential to have a 2010 Mike Wallace type season then Anquan Boldin has the potential to have a 2010 Hines Ward type season. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Boldin caught 57 passes for 887 yards and 3 touchdowns last year, but he’s 32 in October and has declined noticeably every season since 2008 (when he was 28). That’s definitely not uncommon for receivers. In Boldin’s last 5 games in 2011, he caught 14 balls for 236 yards and a score, good for 45 catches for 762 yards and 3 touchdowns over 16 games.

The Ravens lacked any proven depth behind the starters so they signed veteran Jacoby Jones. Jones was surprisingly signed to a 6.5 million dollar deal over 2 years despite being released by the Texans at a salary of 3 million just a week or so prior. Jones always had great promise in Houston, but never lived up to it. His career highs are 51 catches, 562 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He could never beat out the mediocre Kevin Walter for a starting job and never produced in what was a strong passing offense. He’ll be the #3 receiver, but not a very good one. He was only signed because after him on the depth chart, the other receivers have a combined 4 career catches.

At tight end, the Ravens have a pair of 3^rd year players. They drafted Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds respectively in 2010, trying to do a similar thing to what New England did with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the same draft, but it hasn’t worked out nearly as well. They combined for 94 catches, 933 yards, and 8 touchdowns last year. Those would be great numbers if they were one player, but they played a combined 1539 snaps. Dickson ranked 8^th at his position with 968 snaps. They just use a lot of two-tight end sets, but never very effectively. Neither tight end is a good blocker either.

Grade: B-

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Offensive Line

Last year, the Ravens’ offensive line only gave up 33 sacks, after allowing 40 sacks the year before. However, they were stabilized by Bryant McKinnie at left tackle, a player who is no sure thing going forward because of his age (33 in September) and his much publicized battle with weight issues. If McKinnie can’t play at a high level, Michael Oher would have to play on the left side, where he’s never played well as a pro (despite being the star of the “Blindside” novel). That would leave the unproven Jah Reid, a 2011 3^rd round pick, to start at right tackle.

The Ravens also lost Ben Grubbs, one of the league’s best guards, in free agency. Grubbs was ProFootballFocus’ 12^th rated guard last year, with a 7.3 rating. He allowed 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 6 quarterback pressures, and committed 2 penalties, while also grading out above average as a run blocker. In 2010, Grubbs was even better ranking 9^th. 2010 was his last full season as he missed some time with injuries in 2011. Nonetheless, he’ll be missed.

To replace him, the Ravens used a 2^nd round pick on Kelechi Osemele. Osemele will likely wait in the wings in his first year as a pro as Bobbie Williams is currently the favorite to start in Grubbs’ old spot, left guard. Williams was unsigned into June because he was coming off a leg injury and because he turns 36 in September. However, the Ravens signed him to a 2 year deal and made him their starter. He played alright last year before getting hurt, with a 1.9 rating in 9 games, but you have to question if he can be effective into the future.

I’ve already mentioned Bryant McKinnie, he surprisingly played pretty well last year, despite being cut after the lockout by the Vikings for weight related concerns. McKinnie allowed 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties. He had a -7.6 rating because he sucked as a run blocker, but he was still a solid pass protector. Because of weight and age issues, that could very well not be the case this season.

Opposite him, the Ravens have Michael Oher. I mentioned that Oher has never played well on the blindside in his NFL career. Well, last year he didn’t even play well on the right side. He allowed 10 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, 43 quarterback pressures and committed 10 penalties, while also struggling some as a run blocker. He managed a -18.4 rating. Oher was much better as a rookie in 2009, after being a 1^st round pick. He had an 11.8 rating as he played primarily at right tackle. In 2010, he was disastrous on the left side with a -18.9 rating. Though he was expected to bounce back in 2011 back at right tackle, he did not. He could bounce back this year, but it’s fair to question if he’ll ever live up to the hype that his strong rookie year created.

At center and right guard are the Ravens’ two most entrenched offensive linemen. Marshal Yanda is one of the best guards in the league. In fact, the reason they didn’t have the money to resign Grubbs was because they gave Yanda a well deserved contract the year before. That appears to have been the right move. Yanda was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd ranked guard with a 25.3 rating. He allowed just 4 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures in 18 games, with just 3 penalties and a strong rating as a run blocker. He can also play right tackle, but they’re best off using their best offensive lineman at his best position.

Meanwhile, center Matt Birk is almost equally as good. He rated 12^th among centers with a 5.1 rating, allowing 3 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 9 quarterback pressures, with 4 penalties and a solid rating as a run blocker. The NFL’s Man of the Year in 2010 turns 36 in July, but centers can be pretty effective into their mid to late 30s. The Ravens used a 4^th round pick on a potential successor in Gino Gradkowski. They hopefully won’t have to use him much this year. The Ravens need another strong season from Birk because, aside from Yanda, things are pretty questionable around him. They’ll probably look more like the 2010 version of this offensive line than the 2011 version in terms of level of play.

With a below average receiving corps and a below average offensive line, the pressure will be on Flacco to lead this offense, even with Ray Rice to lean on. They averaged 23.6 points per game last year, good for 12^th in the league, but their passing offense was a mere 22^nd with 6.7 YPA. It’s a passing league and with what should be an inferior defense, the Ravens will have to pass more to keep up with their opponents. That pressure will fall on Joe Flacco, a below average receiving corps, and a below average offensive line. If they can’t at least match the 12^th ranked offense they had last year, they’ll have a lot of trouble competing with an improved Steelers team in the AFC North.

Grade: B-

Defense

With a pretty average offense, the defense was what really carried this team to 12 wins and a +112 points differential. They ranked 3^rd in the league in fewest points allowed, behind only Pittsburgh and San Francisco. However, things may not be as good this year. Terrell Suggs, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, is likely out for the season after tearing his Achilles. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are entering their age 37 and 34 seasons respectively. They also lost key members of their front 7 in free agency, including Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding.

Defensive Line

The Ravens use a lot of rotation up front because they essentially use a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defensive scheme. On their 3 man defensive line, Terrence Cody is the nose tackle. The massive 2010 2^nd round pick is solid against the run, but offers absolutely nothing as a pass rusher. On 230 pass rush snaps, he didn’t sack or hit the quarterback once and only provided 4 pressures for a pathetic 1.7% rate.

On one side of Cody is Haloti Ngata. With Suggs out and Lewis and Reed aging, Ngata might be the new face of their defense. He had a 19.8 rating last year in what was actually a down year for him. He had a 27.8 rating the year before. He’s 340 pounds and plays the run like it, but he’s also got great movement skills for someone of his size. On 528 pass rush snaps, he had 5 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures (5.7%).

The opposite defensive end was Cory Redding last year. Redding was a great run stuffer who graded out with a 14.2 rating overall. In his absence, Arthur Jones and Pernell McPhee should see more playing time at the position. Jones is an unproven 2010 5^th round pick, while McPhee played very well in limited action last year. Playing primarily as a nickel defensive tackle in a 4-3, McPhee only played 389 snaps, but rushed the passer on 325 of them, managing 7 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 21 quarterback pressures (10.5%). His high pass rush rate, especially for his position, earned him a 19.4 rating overall. Becoming more of an every down lineman might have a negative effect on his game, but it could also be what springs him to the next level as a football player.

Along with McPhee on their 4 man line in a 4-3 is Haloti Ngata, who rarely leaves the field, as well as Paul Kruger and probably Courtney Upshaw. Kruger also played well in limited action last year, with 7 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 18 quarterback pressures on 258 pass rush snaps (11.2%). Like McPhee, he should have more of an every down role this season in place of missing front 7 players and, like McPhee, that could either have a negative effect or spring him to the next level as a football player.

Upshaw, meanwhile, is a 2^nd round rookie who figures to play Terrell Suggs’ old role in a 4-3. Upshaw is a talented player and was a steal atop the 2^nd round, but he’ll be playing probably more than they’re comfortable with. They’ll likely be hoping guys like Sergio Kindle and Arthur Jones can step up. Jones, as I’ve mentioned, is an unproven 2010 5^th round pick, while Kindle was a 2^nd round pick in 2010. Kindle has barely played in 2 seasons after suffering a nasty head injury off the field shortly after being drafted. He’s in a make or break season and the Ravens may once again not get anything from him.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

Like on the defensive line, the Ravens do use quite a bit of rotation in their linebacking corps. Ray Lewis is obviously an every down mainstay. He had a 25.1 rating last year and while he’s 37 now, he should still be a fine player. Jameel McClain is a great two-down run stuffer who plays both inside and out depending on the scheme. He’s pretty bad in coverage though, but managed a 4.6 rating overall.

With Jarret Johnson gone, the Ravens will need either Brendon Ayanbadejo or Dannell Ellerbe to step up. Those were their top two reserves last year in terms of snaps played. Ayanbadejo is a solid 3^rd down linebacker who can blitz and cover, while Ellerbe is a 2009 undrafted free agent who has played limited snaps so far in his career.

In a 3-4, Courtney Upshaw and Paul Kruger should get the bulk of the snaps on the edge because those are their two best pass rushers with Suggs out. Ayanbadejo could also be in the mix here as he has some edge rush ability. This is another area where Kindle could also help out, if they can ever get anything out of him. Lewis and McClain will line up inside.

With Cory Redding and Jarret Johnson gone, as well as one of their top reserves Brandon McKinney, and Suggs out, the Ravens are thin in the front 7 this year. They have rotational players who should be able to step up into full time roles, but they’re still unproven (Upshaw, Kruger, McPhee) and they also need guys like Jones, Ayanbadejo, and possibly Kindle to step up in rotational roles. On top of all this, Ray Lewis is now 37.

They had 48 sacks last year, good for 3^rd most in the league, but without Suggs that number is bound to go down. Upshaw, Kruger, and McPhee, however are good pass rushers so they could still have a solid total. However, they ranked tied for 1^st in the league with 3.5 YPC allowed and with key run stuffers like Redding and Johnson gone and Lewis aging, they should be farther down on that list this year. Neither Kruger nor McPhee are good against the run.

Grade: B

[yard_barker]

Secondary

Guys like Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs get most of the hype on Baltimore’s defense, but Lardarius Webb might be their best defensive player, at least last year. Webb, easily one of the league’s most underrated players, had a 20.1 rating according to ProFootballFocus, 2^nd only to Darrelle Revis among cornerbacks and his 19.0 coverage rating led all players at all positions (Revis was better than him against the run).

Including playoffs, he was the only cornerback to play more than 75% of his teams snaps and not allow a touchdown. He also had 8 interceptions. Given that, it’s no surprise that he led all cornerbacks who played 75% of their team’s snaps in QB rating allowed with a QB rating allowed of 42.0, more than 20 points lower than the man in 2^nd place (Johnathan Joseph: 64.4). He allowed 56 completions on 102 attempts (54.9%) for 656 yards (6.4 YPA), 0 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He also deflected 12 passes and committed 5 penalties.

He signed a big time extension this offseason as a restricted free agent, but before that there was some speculation that a team like New England could surrender their 1^st round pick and sign him to an offer sheet. The Ravens have to be glad to have him back. In 2010, when he was hurt they really missed him and he was a big part of their 3^rd ranked pass defense in 2011 (6.4 YPA). Barring further injury, the 26 year old (27 in November) should remain one of the league’s best shutdown cornerbacks for several years and prove to be well worth his 6 year, 52.74 million dollar contract.

Opposite him, the Ravens started Cary Williams last year. Williams was an inexperienced 2008 7^th round pick prior to last year, but he started all 16 games and had a decent -1.2 rating. Still, he could be upgraded so the Ravens are hoping that 2011 1^st round pick Jimmy Smith can step up and take the job. Smith actually outplayed Williams last year with a 6.7 rating on 337 snaps and he definitely has more upside than the marginal Williams. Williams, meanwhile, would then line up in the slot as the team’s #3 cornerback.

At safety, everyone knows Ed Reed. Reed mentioned this offseason that he was not 100% committed for this season, which would be his 11^th. He also did not report to mandatory minicamp, but the team doesn’t seem too concerned about his availability for this season. Their biggest concern with him is that he’s 34 in September, has some recent injury history, and is a free agent after the season. Reed’s 12.0 rating in 2011 was good for 5^th at his position and he should have another solid year in 2012, in spite of his age.

Next to him, the Ravens have Bernard Pollard. Pollard has had an interesting career journey. Not only has he injured three separate Patriot players, Tom Brady, Wes Welker, and Rob Gronkowski, but he’s also been very inconsistent. The Patriot Killer, has always been a solid safety against the run, but had a career best season in coverage last year in his first season in Baltimore, allowing just 30 completions on 49 attempts (61.2%) for 379 yards (7.7 YPA), 1 touchdown, a pick, 9 deflections, and 3 penalties, good for a 1.4 rating.

It’s unclear if he can continue to be that good. Pollard was once a promising young safety in Kansas City after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2006, but lasted just 3 years before being cut in training camp in 2009. He then caught on in Houston in 2009, where he was so good the Texans tendered him at the highest possible level as a restricted free agent in the next offseason, but a year later, he was unwanted once more, as Houston non-tendered him. He was then forced to settle for just 2.7 million over 2 years from Baltimore. However, he played well enough last season to get a 12.3 million dollar extension over 3 years.

He was undoubtedly helped though by the supporting cast. The talent is still there in the back 4, maybe even more so with Jimmy Smith possibly coming into his own, but their front 7 is weaker. Because of this, they probably won’t be a top-3 pass defense again. They also won’t match their 48 sacks and 1^st ranked run defense. Because of this, more pressure will fall on the offense.

Grade: A-

Head Coach

His brother won Coach of the Year last year, but John Harbaugh is no slouch himself. Taking over a previously 5-11 team following the 2007 season, Harbaugh and his quarterback Joe Flacco have combined for a 44-20 record, including 11+ wins in 3 of 4 seasons and including back-to-back 12-4 seasons. They’ve been to the AFC Championship game twice, coming up short both times. Like his quarterback, Harbaugh will probably need a ring to be considered an elite Head Coach, but he’s up there. Fun fact: Harbaugh is the first coach in NFL history to make the playoffs in his first 4 seasons as Head Coach.

Grade: B+

Overall

The Ravens took a lot of hits this offseason with the losses of Cory Redding and Jarret Johnson in free agency and Terrell Suggs to injury. They also have some aging players defensively. More pressure will fall on quarterback Joe Flacco than ever before as he has been backed by a top-3 defense in each of his first 4 seasons as a pro. I don’t think Flacco will respond positively, especially since he has a subpar offensive line and receiving corps.

Baltimore actually has a tough division. They sent 3 teams to the playoffs last year. Baltimore went 6-0 in the division last year, but that’s tough to replicate. Teams almost never go 6-0 in the division twice in a row. In fact, since 2002, 11 teams have gone 6-0 in the division. Only 2 of them increased their overall win total the next year. Those 11 teams won on average 3.00 fewer games the next season. Because of familiarity, divisional records are more inconsistent on a yearly basis than non-divisional records.

Expect them to go 4-2 or so in the division. Outside of the division, they host New England, Dallas, Oakland, Denver and the Giants. Oakland will be an easy game, especially at home, but New England will be very tough. The other three will be winnable, but also losable. They are a good home team so they could go 4-1, but 3-2 is also a possibility. In their other 5 games, they go to Philadelphia, Kansas City, San Diego, Houston, and Washington. All 5 of those teams could make the playoffs and the Ravens were not a good road team last year. They could easily go 8-8 next year with that schedule.

Projection: 8-8 2^nd in AFC North

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Dallas Cowboys 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Cowboys

Offense

It’s always one thing or another with these Cowboys. They started 7-4, but finished at 8-8 and out of the playoffs after dropping two games to the Giants in 4 weeks, losing the 1^st one when Miles Austin lost a wide open touchdown in the sun and failed to catch it. In that game, they blew a 12 point lead to lose by 3, 37-34. In addition to 2 losses to the Giants, the Cowboys also dropped winnable games in Arizona and at home to Philadelphia, two non-playoff teams. In fact, you could argue that their struggles started 2 weeks prior against Washington, as they needed overtime to beat the last place Redskins. The next week, they only won by one against the lowly Dolphins, which was of course followed by their 1-4 slide.

Last year, I don’t really think you could blame Tony Romo. Yes, it’s easy to pin their week 1 loss to the Jets and their week 4 loss to the Lions on him for late turnovers, but they wouldn’t have even been in those games had it not been for him. Romo led the offense to 24 and 30 points respectively in those 2 losses and led the offense to 23.1 points per game on the season, 15^th in the league. A leaky defense, which ranked 16^th with 21.7 points per game allowed was more of a problem, particularly their 24^th ranked pass defense. Their defense was especially bad late in games.

Romo had a very strong season, ranking 4^th in the league in QB rating in what was dubbed the year of the quarterback. He completed 346 of 552 (66.3%) for 4184 yards (8.0 YPA), 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He did this despite struggles around him offensively and a nagging rib injury that bothered him early in the season. He was sacked 36 times behind a young offensive line that allowed 39 sacks total. He had a series of injuries to his running backs that left Sammy Morris seeing significant carries on their stretch run. Injuries at receiver left them young and inexperienced there as well until Laurent Robinson inexplicably stepped up.

Romo once again has a young supporting cast, but at age 32, all of the pressure is on him to lead this team to the Promised Land. Even owner Jerry Jones says their Super Bowl window is closing, perhaps in an effort to motivate his aging quarterback. In a loaded NFC and a stacked NFC East, he may find that very tough to do.

Quarterback

He gets a lot of heat for never getting it done on a big stage with high expectations, but any calls for Romo to be benched or traded are absurd. He’s not an elite quarterback on the level of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or either of the Mannings, but he’s still a top-10 quarterback or so. He’s always had a 60% or higher completion rate and a YPA above 7.5. In 3 full seasons as a starter, he’s surpassed 4000 yard and 25 touchdowns each time and he was on pace for both of those numbers in injury shortened years in 2008 and 2010.

He has a career completion percentage of 64.5, a career YPA of 8.1, and 149 touchdowns to 72 interceptions. You can do a lot worse than him. I think he could win a Super Bowl with the right pieces around him. I’m just not convinced he has them right now coming off an 8-8 season, which ironically is actually the worst record a Romo quarterback team has ever had. He’s not too bad.

Grade: B+

Running back

At running back, Romo has good supporting talent, but durability is the major question. DeMarco Murray will be the lead back. He took over for an injured Felix Jones and kept the job after Jones returned last year, up until an injury of his own, an ankle injury, ended his year. Murray averaged 5.5 YPC on 164 carries for 897 yards last year as a 3^rd round rookie, but you do have to note that 253 of those yards, on 25 carries, came against a Rams team that surrendered separate 200 yard performances to both Murray and Chris Wells and was generally awful against the run.

Murray is a talented back, but he’s had issues with durability throughout his career, including his days at Oklahoma. There’s a reason he was available in the 3^rd round last year. He might not make it through the season again this year. Behind him, the Cowboys have Felix Jones. Jones has talent, but has never lived up to being taken in the 1^st round in 2008. He’s incredibly inconsistent and injury prone. The Cowboys actually tried to trade him heading into his contract year for a mid round pick on draft day, to no avail. If he has to carry the load in Murray’s absence, the Cowboys could be in trouble. Their #3 back is Phillip Tanner, who has 22 career carries. The 2011 undrafted free agent may see an increased workload this season.

Grade: B

Wide receiver

Similar to running back, they have a lot of talent at wide receiver, but durability is a question. Miles Austin missed 6 games with injury and was limited in several others last year, catching just 43 passes for 549 yards and 7 touchdowns after back-to-back 1000 yard years. Dez Bryant, meanwhile, only missed one game, but admitted after the season that a lingering quadriceps injury limited him for most of the season. He also admitted his conditioning wasn’t great. He is having what’s being called a productive offseason, for what it’s worth, so the 2010 1^st round pick could finally unleash his talent in 2012, after 63 catches for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns last year.

With injuries to the starters last year, the Cowboys needed a 3^rd receiver to step up. Early in the season, the Cowboys relied on Kevin Ogletree to do so, but his frequent brain farts on the field lost him the job. Laurent Robinson, previously a career journeyman, took the opportunity and ran with it, catching 54 passes for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns. He took a large contract in Jacksonville this offseason though and the Cowboys didn’t replace him, which means it’ll probably to be left to Kevin Ogletree to be the 3^rd receiver this year unless 2011 6^th round pick Dwayne Harris or 2012 5^th round pick Danny Coale can beat him out. Durability and depth are problems at a position that is otherwise talented.

Luckily for Romo, he will once again have Jason Witten to lean on at tight end. The 6-6 265 pounder is as consistent as can be. He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year in 2003. Since 2004, he’s had at least 64 catches for 754 yards in every season, maxing out with 96 catches for 1145 yards in 2007. Last year he had 79 catches for 942 yards and 5 touchdowns and more of the same can be expected from his this season. He’s also always been a good blocker.

The Cowboys like to use a lot of two-tight end sets. It’s for this reason that they used a 2008 2^nd round pick on Martellus Bennett, despite already having Witten. Bennett never quite lived up to being drafted there, but he was consistently one of the league’s best run blockers. He left this offseason for divisional rival New York and the Cowboys didn’t really do much to replace him. They promoted John Phillips, an unproven 2009 6^th round pick, and drafted James Hanna in the 6^th round of this past NFL Draft, but I don’t think either can be the blocker that Bennett was.

Grade: B+

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Offensive line

While they have talent at running back and wide receiver, just questions about durability, on the offensive line the problem is more with the talent itself. Things are fine at offensive tackle with Doug Free and Tyron Smith. Free and Smith will be switching sides this season, with Smith going to the left side and Free going to the right side. On paper, that looks like a productive move because Smith is significantly more athletic, while Free’s lack of athleticism won’t be as much of a problem on the right side and his gritty toughness will be allowed to shine. However, switching positions is always a risk, especially for someone like Tyron Smith who was a right tackle dating back to his USC days opposite Matt Kalil.

While Smith is significantly more athletic than Free and more suited to deal with speed rushers, that doesn’t mean he’s not a physical blocker who can help the run game. He was ProFootballFocus’ 4^th rated offensive tackle last year with a 13.7 rating and graded out equally well in pass protection and run blocking. He allowed 8 sacks, but sacks are an overrated statistic. He only allowed 1 quarterback hit and 21 quarterback hits, numbers that provide more insight into how he helped keep Romo protected. He was also penalized 7 times.

Free, meanwhile, really struggled on the left side, part of why he’s moving to the right side. He allowed 10 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, 34 quarterback pressures, and committed 10 penalties as his -11.9 rating was 53th among 76 offensive tackles. He was above average as a run blocker, however, and in 2010, he was much better with a 17.4 rating overall. The switch is risky because Smith is playing an entirely new position and because Free was once a very good left tackle, but it may pay off.

On the interior of the offensive line, that’s where things are really bleak. Starters Kyle Kosier and Montrae Holland really struggled at guard last year and that’s why neither were brought back. Both, not surprising, are still available on the open market. I don’t know that the guys the Cowboys replaced them with are any better. They signed Nate Livings from Cincinnati, but he graded out with a -10.5 rating last year.

They also signed Mackenzy Bernadeau from Carolina, who is someone I’ll even acknowledge I had never heard of before they signed him. He was a backup in Carolina after being a 2008 7^th round pick. For some reason, the Cowboys signed him to a fairly significant contract with intentions of him being a starter, but he had offseason hip surgery which ruined his timetable to become the starter. David Arkin and Ronald Leary will also compete for the starting job opposite Livings. Arkin was their 4^th round pick in 2011, while Leary went undrafted this past April. The Cowboys reportedly had a 3^rd round grade on him, but the fact that an undrafted free agent could start for this team week 1 shows how pathetic the interior of their offensive line is.

At center, Phil Costa will be given another chance. He was ProFootballFocus’ 30^th rated center out of 35 with a -9.7 rating and I don’t think that even takes into account that he led the league in botched snaps. He allowed 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, 15 quarterback pressures, and committed 2 penalties, while struggling as a run blocker. He’ll need to get things together or he could be challenged by Bill Nagy, a 2011 7^th round pick who was actually their week 1 starter at left guard last year (not quite as bad as an undrafted free agent, but still).

Nagy had a -9.0 rating in 4 starts at guard so he might not be any better than Costa. I’m baffled that they didn’t draft a single offensive lineman in the 2012 NFL Draft given their struggles upfront. Tony Romo can’t be pleased about that. Still, they have the most important position figured out, the quarterback, and they could have better luck with injuries at running back and wide receiver. This is still a strong group and not the problem area. Defense is where their bigger issues were.

Grade: C+

Defense

The Cowboys’ worst group last year was their defensive backs. Credit them for paying a lot of focus to that area in the offseason. They added Morris Claiborne, the draft’s best cornerback, and Brandon Carr, free agency’s best cornerback. However, they added those two at the expense of addressing other needs, like the offensive line, the defensive line, and depth at the offensive skill positions.

Defensive line

As the offensive line is the Cowboys’ worst group offensively, the defensive line is the Cowboys’ worst group defensively. They use a lot of rotation on the line with a lot of different players to mask the fact that they don’t have a lot of talent. Nose tackle Jay Ratliff is easily the most talented of the bunch and he graded out 7^th among nose tackles/defensive tackles with an 18.6 rating. Despite being undersized at 305 pounds or so, he was equally good against the run as he was as a pass rusher. Josh Brent, more of a true nose tackle, provides solid depth behind him.

At defensive end, the Cowboys used a rotation of 4 different players at 2 spots. Those 4 players were Jason Hatcher, Kenyon Coleman, Marcus Spears, and Sean Lissemore. With the exception of Lissemore (I’ll get to him later), none of those guys were very good and none played more than 428 snaps. The Cowboys drafted Tyrone Coleman in the 3^rd round so he should see snaps at the position this year and they’ve said they’ll be giving Lissemore a bigger role this year, which has led many to suggest that the veteran Coleman (33), could be cut. I agree with that suggestion.

Lissemore, as I’ve already mentioned, was their best player at the position last year. He had a 13.8 rating on just 283 snaps. He wasn’t much of a pass rusher, but he had 18 solo tackles, 8 assists and 16 stops on just 119 run defense snaps, while missing only 2 tackles. He was ProFootballFocus’ 3^rd rated 3-4 defensive end against the run, behind Ray McDonald and Glenn Dorsey. He played all over the line, both end spots and nose tackle, and will have a bigger role this season. We’ll see if the added playing time will help or hurt him, but he’s a potential breakout star, with the key word being potential.

He, Jason Hatcher, and Marcus Spears should get the bulk of the snaps this year at the position, with the rookie Crawford being worked in gradually. Spears was the worst of the bunch with a -3.6 rating. He has never lived up to being a 1^st round pick (in 2005) and I’m baffled that the Cowboys gave him an expensive, long term extension after the 2010 season. All in all, this is not a position of strength. Yes, they spent a 3^rd round pick on the position, but they were also linked to players like Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe at 14 before they moved up and for good reason.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

Things are better at linebacker. When mentioning their linebackers, you have to first mention DeMarcus Ware. Ware leads the NFL with 99.5 sacks over the last 7 years after being the 11^th overall pick in 2005 NFL Draft. He’s already 29^th on the all-time sacks list and looks like a future Hall of Famer even though he’s only heading into his age 30 season. Last season was no different, as he had 20 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 44 quarterback pressures on 476 pass rush snaps (15.1%). Somehow those 20 sacks didn’t lead the league, but it’s still an incredibly impressive number.

He’s a pretty one dimensional player who doesn’t excel against the run or in coverage, but when you rush the passer as well as him, it doesn’t really matter. He had a 32.6 rating overall, 3^rd at his position, but his 35.6 pass rush rating not only paced his position, but was best in the league. 11 penalties is the only major flaw in his 2011 season.

Opposite him, Anthony Spencer has never managed more than 6 sacks in a season despite defenses regularly focusing on Ware opposite him. The former 1^st round pick hasn’t really lived up to his draft range, but last year he was actually pretty good. His 6 sacks don’t tell the whole story as he had 9 quarterback hits and 35 quarterback pressures and a 10.4 rating that was 10^th at his position.

He was surprisingly given the franchise tag this offseason, normally reserved for the elites of a position, but it does mean he’ll be back this season. He signed that tender almost immediately, knowing that 8.856 million was almost definitely too much for a player that can’t be described as anything better than above average. Victor Butler, meanwhile, provides solid depth and the Cowboys used a 4^th round pick on Kyle Wilber, a player who can play inside and out and who has experience in a 3-4 from Wake Forest. Either one of those two could be Spencer’s long term successor.

In between those two, the Cowboys have 3 middle linebackers who will rotate. Sean Lee is essentially an every down middle linebacker. He played 868 snaps last year and had a 13.9 rating, good for 14^th at his position. He should have the same role this season. Bruce Carter and Dan Connor will split snaps next to him. Connor was an offseason acquisition from Carolina, a solid player who played well in the absence of some injured players last year. He deserved a bigger role somewhere and the Cowboys gave him it. He had a 4.9 rating last year. Carter, meanwhile, will come in on passing downs. The 2011 2^nd round pick barely played as a rookie thanks to injury, playing 41 snaps, but he’s a talented player who might have gone in the 1^st round had it not been for his torn ACL.

Grade: A-

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Secondary

As I’ve said before, the Cowboys’ biggest weakness last year was their secondary. The Cowboys ranked 24^th against the pass with 7.6 YPA, despite 42 sacks, a good number. Their worst defensive back was Terence Newman, whose -9.1 rating was as a result of a -11.2 rating in coverage. Newman was promptly cut this offseason, heading into his age 34 season.

To replace him, the Cowboys signed Brandon Carr to a 5 year, 50.1 million dollar contract. Carr, along with Cortland Finnegan and the franchise tagged Brent Grimes, was one of the top defensive backs in a strong defensive back free agent class. Carr had a very good season last year, allowing just 39 completions on 79 attempts (49.4%) for 511 yards (6.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 7 deflections and 5 penalties in Kansas City. Among cornerbacks who played 75% or more of their teams snaps, he ranked 5^th with a 61.7 QB rating allowed. The one concern is that he was always the #2 cornerback with Brandon Flowers and never had to cover the opponent’s top receiver. He’ll also be switching sides of the field this year.

The Cowboys weren’t done upgrading the cornerback position as they traded up to the 6^th pick to grab Morris Claiborne, the consensus top cornerback prospect of the draft class. This move sent Mike Jenkins to the bench. Jenkins was a 1^st round pick in 2008 and a Pro Bowler in 2009, but he has disappointed over the past two years. He was better in 2011 than 2010, but an upgrade still could have been had, especially as he heads into a contract year. Jenkins is a talented player, but he has inconsistent play because of an inconsistent motor. Claiborne, meanwhile, could struggle as a rookie in coverage. Rookie cornerbacks tend to (even Patrick Peterson did last year), but he has a bright future.

Jenkins was not happy about being moved to the bench and demanded a trade. Though they’ve received interest from at least 4 teams, including the Colts and Lions, the Cowboys are saying publicly that they will be keeping Jenkins. Some still speculate that they are saying this to drive up the asking price and/or to make sure that Claiborne is 100% healthy off of wrist surgery before moving him and that he could be dealt in Training Camp.

If kept, Jenkins will compete with Orlando Scandrick to be the #3 cornerback and play the slot. Scandrick is seen as the favorite as the Cowboys, for whatever reason, love Scandrick in that spot. They signed him to a 27 million dollar contract over 5 years last year. He rewarded them with a -5.6 rating and a 100.2 QB rating allowed and he’s never been much better in the past. Still, GM/Owner Jerry Jones is insisting they don’t regret the extension, a sign that Scandrick is the favorite over Jenkins.

That would leave Jenkins as the 4^th cornerback, which, obviously, he wouldn’t like. There was a report that the Cowboys would use more 4 cornerback sets with their 4 cornerbacks, in order to make up for their lack of depth at safety (more on that later). In this plan, Orlando Scandrick would have lined up at free safety on passing downs and Jenkins would play the slot. Scandrick has refused the move to safety, but perhaps they could try the same setup with Jenkins at free safety. At the same time, it wouldn’t shock me if Jenkins was traded. Other teams in the league view him as a starter and they should be able to get a mid round pick, good value for a disgruntled depth cornerback who is in a walk year.

I mentioned their lack of depth at safety, in addition to Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe, they were also linked to Mark Barron at 14 before they moved up. They didn’t take a safety until the 4^th round when they reached for Matt Johnson, who is not expected to do anything more than special teams as a rookie.

They have one good safety, Gerald Sensabaugh, a solid player who they gave an extension towards the end of last season. However, opposite him, Brodney Pool will compete with Barry Church for the starting job. Pool signed as a free agent from Jets. He’s a decent player when healthy, but he rarely is healthy and injuries may have sapped his abilities. Church, meanwhile, is a reserve who impressed in limited action last year. The organization is high on the 2010 undrafted free agent out of Toledo. Still, this is a position of weakness and they may be better off converting a cornerback for passing downs.

Grade: B

Head Coach

The Cowboys had been grooming Jason Garrett as a Head Coach for years and there was a lot of buzz about him, so much so that he got several offers to be the Head Coach elsewhere before deciding to remain the coach in waiting in Dallas. Garrett impressed in his 1^st year, finishing 5-3 with a previously 1-7 team despite the loss of Tony Romo at quarterback. However, last year, he fell short of expectations in 2011 with an 8-8 record and a botched late timeout that caused him to ice his own kicker in an eventual loss to Arizona. There were even calls for his job, which were a bit premature. He’s definitely better than Wade Phillips. Still, it’s tough to see what all the fuss was about with him before he became a coach.

Grade: B-

Overall

Overall, this is a solid team. They could be improved on both sides of the football with better health offensively and additions to their secondary, their worst group in 2011. However, they’re still not without holes as their defensive line is average at best, their interior offensive line might be the worst in the league, and they lack depth at offensive skill positions. They put all of their eggs in one basket in the draft with Morris Claiborne and given that rookie cornerbacks tend to struggle, that might not pan out at least this season.

If they were in the AFC, I would have a hard time keeping them out of the playoffs, but they’re in the NFC with 10 or 11 teams that are all above average on paper. It’s going to be very tough for them to sneak into the playoffs. They’re a contender, but they’re also in a stacked division, which they probably won’t win and I think there’s at least 2 wild card teams that are better than them. It’s always one thing or another with this team and I think that they’ll disappoint once again this year and miss the playoffs, even if only barely like last year.

In the division, they’ll probably go 2-4 or 3-3 or so. Outside of the division, they host Tampa Bay, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and New Orleans. Cleveland and Tampa Bay could be pretty easy, but Chicago is tougher and Pittsburgh and New Orleans will be even tougher still. 2-3 or 3-2 in those 5 games is definitely possible. They also go to Seattle, Baltimore, Carolina, Atlanta, and Cincinnati. Carolina and Cincinnati are winnable games, but Seattle and Atlanta are both tough places to win and Baltimore is another tough team. 2-3 or 3-2 in those games is also possible, so average everything out and give them a 5-5 out of division record and let’s say a 2-4 in division record, that’s 7-9, which seems about right.

Update: No real reason why I’m adding the extra win, but when I made updates elsewhere, I was left needing to assign an extra win somewhere and the Cowboys were right on the 7/8 borderline.

Projection: 8-8 4^th in NFC East

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Washington Redskins 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 10, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, Commanders

Offense

Remember when Mike Shanahan won 2 Super Bowls? Good times. The Redskins hired him thinking they were getting a future Hall of Fame Head Coach who would bring them out of mediocrity and into the playoffs. That hasn’t happened. In 2 seasons, Shanahan has gone 11-21. In his 1^st year in 2010, he traded for Donovan McNabb, who didn’t even finish the year before being benched. In his 2^nd year, last year, he tried to coach up two mediocre quarterbacks, Rex Grossman and John Beck and neither of those guys panned out.

Heading into his 3^rd season as Head Coach, Mike Shanahan had to be feeling his seat getting hot. In response to that, the Redskins made one of the boldest draft day trades ever, giving up their 1^st round pick in 2013, their 1^st round pick in 2014, and their 2^nd round pick in 2012 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2 to draft Robert Griffin out of Baylor.

They certainly gave up a lot to get him. In fact, it was the 1^st draft day trade involving a team giving up three 1^st rounders in NFL history. However, they could be getting a legitimate franchise quarterback and at a team friendly salary. How many 1^st rounders would you give up for Cam Newton at his current salary? 3? 4? Is there even a price he could be had for? Griffin is more mature as a thrower than Newton was at this time last year and could end up being the better quarterback. If that happens, the Redskins could be picking in the 20s in 2013 and 2014 so it won’t matter so much that they don’t have picks. And if he flops…well Mike Shanahan would have been fired anyway. Some sportsbooks, like the ones that can be found at this sportsbook review, were even giving odds that Shanahan would be fired after last season. He had to do something.

The Redskins haven’t had a legitimate franchise quarterback in forever. They haven’t won more than 10 games since 1991. That’s why they felt like they had to shoot for the stars and I think they’ll be rewarded with Griffin. This team managed 5 wins last year despite terrible quarterback play. They have a solid defense, added some more pieces this offseason, and now they have their quarterback. Robert Griffin is definitely stepping into a better situation than Andrew Luck or Cam Newton. It reminds me more like what Andy Dalton stepped into last year or Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan in 2008, etc. Those 3 guys all made the playoffs as rookies.

Could the same thing happen for Griffin this year? I think it could. One team has gone from 5 or fewer wins one year to the playoffs the next every season since 2003. The teams that would qualify in 2012: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Jacksonville. I think Washington has the best chance of that bunch. They had 35 turnovers last year and since 2002, 42 teams have had 35+ turnovers. Those teams had an average of 9.74 fewer turnovers the next season and won 1.61 more games. Griffin could definitely be the next in that line of rookie quarterbacks making the playoffs.

Quarterbacks

I’ve already mentioned Griffin at length. They essentially made him their starting quarterback before they even drafted him. He’ll be out there week 1 as the Redskins travel to New Orleans (rough welcome). He was the Heisman winner last year and arguably had a better season last year than #1 pick Andrew Luck ever had (Luck had 2 very good years, did it with less supporting talent, and ran more of the offense, which is why he went #1 overall). On top of that, he’s a perfect fit for Mike Shanahan’s system. His ability to stretch the field vertically and horizontally is Elway-esque (not saying he’s that good). He’ll do just fine as a rookie.

Grade: B

Running backs

As anyone who reads my fantasy football stuff knows, I have no clue what Mike Shanahan is planning on doing with his running backs. He changes his mind with backs so much. Last year, Tim Hightower started out the year as the lead back, lost his job to Ryan Torain, got hurt, Torain took over, then he lost his job to Roy Helu, who briefly lost his job to Ryan Torain, before getting it back, getting hurt, losing his job to Evan Royster, who then split carries with Helu in the finale once he returned.

Earlier this offseason, it looked like it would be Helu and Royster getting some sort of split of the carries with Torain and Hightower unsigned. However, then they signed Hightower and there are varying reporting saying everything from Hightower will be the lead back week 1 to Hightower might not be healthy by Training Camp. On top of all this, they used a 6^th round pick on Alfred Morris, who Shanahan says is a perfect fit for his system. He might have just been a 6^th round pick, but Helu and Royster were 4^th and 6^th round picks in 2011 and they had impacts as a rookie.

Helu and Royster would both seem to be more talented running backs than Hightower. Helu rushed for 640 yards and 2 touchdowns on 151 carries (4.2 YPC) and caught 49 passes, while Royster rushed for 328 yards on 56 carries (5.9 YPC) and caught 9 passes. Helu was also the 4^th best pass blocking back in the league, according to ProFootballFocus, last season. Hightower, meanwhile, rushed for 321 yards and a touchdown on 84 carries (3.8 YPC) and 10 catches. However, Shanahan seems to have a thing for Hightower for whatever reason.

I expect all 4 backs and maybe even a back I haven’t mentioned to get some action this season for the Redskins and it’ll be unpredictable. All this means it’ll be a nightmare for fantasy football players, but Mike Shanahan teams always run the ball fairly well overall. Robert Griffin’s rushing abilities will help the running game for two reasons. Obviously, he’ll add yards, but he’ll also open things up for the backs the way Michael Vick does for LeSean McCoy, Vince Young did for Chris Johnson, and Tim Tebow did for Willis McGahee.

Grade: B-

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Wide Receivers

The Redskins made two offseason additions at wide receiver, with the most prominent one being Pierre Garcon. They gave Garcon #1 wide receiver money, giving him 42.5 million over 5 years, even though he was always the #2 or #3 receiver in Indianapolis. He’s also never gone over 1000 yards, though the 70 catches for 947 yards and 6 touchdowns he managed last year with Curtis Painter/Dan Orlovsky were impressive. If he had a legitimate quarterback, he could have easily had 80+ catches for 1100+ yards last year and he’s only 26 in August. That being said, receivers have a poor history when changing teams so I have some doubts that he’ll live up to his contract.

Josh Morgan was the other wide receiver addition. He didn’t get nearly as much money as Garcon and is not nearly as big of a name. He’s a decent player, but I got the feeling he was overrated for being underrated this offseason. The Redskins gave him 12 million over 2 years, but his former team, the 49ers, replaced him with Mario Manningham, a more proven player who came cheaper. Morgan has never had more than 44 catches for 698 yards and 3 touchdowns in a season, but he did play on a conservative offense in San Francisco. He’s also coming off a broken leg that cost him most of last season. He might not even be a starter in Washington so that signing was head scratching.

With Garcon and Morgan coming in, many wondered if Santana Moss would be cut. Moss has been one of the Redskins’ best players for the past decade or so, since his arrival following the 2004 season. However, he’s 33 and coming off his worst season since 2002 and missed several games with injuries. Instead, the Redskins cut Jabar Gaffney, their leading receiver from last year, who happened to be 2 years younger, which looked like a head scratching move at the time.

However, Moss responded very well to being kept on the roster. He lost 15 pounds and has been wowing in practice. He’s not even 2 years removed from 93 catches for 1115 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010 with poor quarterback play so he might still be able to contribute even at 33. 33 isn’t quite a death sentence for receivers and Moss has had a very underrated career in spite of consistently terrible quarterback play. At the very least, he’ll be their slot receiver, but reports say that he could still be a starter and might even end up being their #1 receiver since Garcon is so unproven. If Moss could find his old form, that would help Garcon a lot because, as I’ve already mentioned, he’s always been a secondary receiver.

I think that’s a little optimistic, but I do expect Moss to be a starter and their #2 wide receiver. In 3-wide receiver sets, he’ll move into the slot, where he’s a dangerous player. Morgan and Leonard Hankerson would then be left to compete for the #3 receiver job. The winner of that competition would play opposite Garcon with Moss in the slot when they go 3 wide. Both of those players are also in the mix for the starting job, but I think Moss will get it.

Hankerson was their 3^rd round pick last year and I thought they got a steal with him there. He started to prove me right, catching 8 passes for 106 yards against Miami in his 1^st start, but he got hurt and didn’t play again. Barring any lingering problems from his hip surgery, he should be their #3 receiver and could impress in limited action in that role because of his great athleticism.

It’s not all about the wide receivers in Washington. Fred Davis is one of the league’s most underrated players and one of the league’s best tight ends. He caught 59 passes for 796 yards and 3 touchdowns last year in just 12 games despite terrible quarterback play. He did miss 4 games with a suspension after failing a drug test and he would miss the entire season if he fails another one, but if that doesn’t happen, he could approach 1000 yards this year. Griffin definitely has some players to throw to. With the additions of Josh Morgan and Pierre Garcon and the returns of Santana Moss and Leonard Hankerson, as well as likely a full season from Fred Davis, this should be a much improved receiving corps.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

Mike Shanahan always had great offensive lines in Denver, but that hasn’t been the case in Washington. They allowed 41 sacks last year and graded out as the 3^rd worst run blocking offensive line on ProFootballFocus. Their most talented offensive lineman is Trent Williams, the 4^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Williams struggled as a rookie in 2010, but last year allowed just 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures in 9 games. He was penalized 8 times, but he graded out above average in run and pass blocking and had a 3.8 overall rating on ProFootballFocus. He did miss 3 games with injury and another 4 with suspension after failing a drug test. Like Davis, he’ll need to avoid another suspension because that would be for a year.

Other than that, things are pretty bleak for the Redskins up front, but having Williams out there for a full season will make things better. Their other offensive tackle is Jammal Brown. Brown was once an elite left tackle in New Orleans, but hasn’t been the same since hip surgery. He really struggled last year, allowing 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. He finished with a -18.5 rating.

He might never be the same again and the Redskins didn’t add a good backup behind him so they’ll get below average play from that position this year. Their primary backup there is Willie Smith. Smith started 4 games when Williams was suspended last year. He was absolutely awful, finishing with a -13.0 rating, allowing 3 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures.

Another player who missed a lot of time with injury last year was Kory Lichtensteiger. Lichtensteiger was their 2^nd best offensive lineman with a 2.7 rating last year, but missed 12 games with a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus. However, he is expected to return for Training Camp and start at left guard, which will be a welcome addition as his replacement, Maurice Hurt, graded out with a -12.5 rating.

Their other guard is Chris Chester. He played every snap in 2011, though the Redskins may have wished he hadn’t. Chester was actually above average in pass protection, but he was the league’s worst run blocking guard and his overall -17.2 rating was 70^th among 77 players at the position. If Lichtensteiger can’t bounce back from injury or Chester continues to struggle, 2012 3^rd round pick Josh LeRibeus could see some action, but guard is still hardly a position of strength.

Their center will once again be Will Montgomery, the other Washington offensive lineman to play every snap. He wasn’t too bad, at least not relatively, with a -6.4 rating. That number is skewed a little bit. He actually graded out with a 3.4 rating as a center, but a -9.8 rating in 3 games at left guard sunk his rating. If he’s allowed to play center full time this year, he should be a solid starter. For that reason, as well as the return of Kory Lichtensteiger and Trent Williams, and the addition of Josh LeRibeus as depth, the Redskins should be better upfront this season, but they’re still not great. Overall though, with the addition of Robert Griffin, a better receiving corps and a better offensive line, they should be a much improved offense.

Grade: C+

Defense

Defense was part of the problem for the Redskins last year as they ranked 18^th against the run, 21^st against the pass, and 21^st in points per game allowed with 22.1. They weren’t as bad on that side of the ball as they were offensively, but they weren’t great. However, they have a lot of talent, especially in the front 7, and they should be an improved bunch this season because they have a lot of young players.

Defensive Line

The Redskins had a lot of hope for their defensive line heading into 2011. They added two talented free agents, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield, and 2^nd round rookie Jarvis Jenkins, who was having a very strong Training Camp. However, Jenkins tore his ACL before week 1 and had to be replaced with the mediocre Adam Carriker in the starting lineup. Carriker is a decent pass rusher, but was horrible against the run. He was the worst run stuffing 3-4 defensive end on ProFootballFocus, which contributed to his overall -9.5 rating, 30^th at his position out of 32. Jenkins is once again having a strong offseason and he should be able to be the starter, putting Carriker in a situational role, where he’s better suited.

Bowen and Cofield weren’t as bad as Carriker, but they did disappoint a little bit and both graded out below average. Bowen had a -1.9 rating and Cofield had a -5.7 rating. Both have been very good players in the past as they had a 16.0 rating and a 17.2 rating respectively in 2010 so one or both could have bounce back years. Next to Jarvis Jenkins, with Adam Carriker serving a situational role with another solid situational player Chris Nield, that’s a pretty good defensive line.

Grade: B+

Linebackers

While the defensive line could be good, the linebackers might be even better. In fact, I think this is a very underrated group. They were a big part of the reason why they had 41 sacks last year, an impressive number. Ryan Kerrigan had an excellent rookie season with 9 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 451 pass rush snaps (12.6%). He wasn’t as good in coverage or against the run, but he was very good at what they needed him to do most. He played opposite Brian Orakpo, who had 10 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 43 quarterback pressures on 390 pass rush snaps (15.1%). He’s more proven than Kerrigan, who is going into only his 2^nd season, but the two combine for a very tough to stop pass rushing duo.

Things are also bright on the inside of their linebacking corps. London Fletcher has been one of the best linebackers of the decade and deserves to get his name mentioned with both Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher. He graded out with a 19.9 rating last year and was above average in all aspects of the game, run defense, pass rush, and pass coverage. He’s 37 now, but he’s beaten the odds countless times before.

Next to him is Perry Riley, a 2010 4^th round pick who played very well down the stretch. In 8 starts, he posted a 4.9 rating and was a major upgrade over Rocky McIntosh, who had a -8.8 rating in the first 8 games. McIntosh never was comfortable in Washington’s 3-4 and a full season of Riley next to Fletcher will make this defense better overall.

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Secondary

This is where things get bleaker defensively for the Redskins. DeAngelo Hall is one of the most overrated and overpaid players in the league. He has a 6 year, 55 million dollar contract likely because he has a lot of interceptions, but he struggles in coverage and gets torched far too often. He’s not a #1 cornerback and would be better off as a #2 cornerback so he wouldn’t have to cover opposing #1 wide receivers. Last season, he allowed 63 of 94 (67.0%) for 858 yards (9.1 YPA), 5 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 10 deflections, and 4 penalties. His -8.5 coverage rating was 95^th out of 109 at his position.

Opposite him, Josh Wilson is a solid #2 cornerback. He had a -0.3 rating, which is almost as average as you can be. That wasn’t nearly as good as the 13.0 rating he had in 2010, 5^th at his position, when he was with Baltimore, but that season was a bit of a fluke. He’s a solid, but unspectacular cornerback. The Redskins signed Cedric Griffin to be their nickel back this season. He’s a decent nickel back and he’ll be a major upgrade over Kevin Barnes, who really struggled in that role last season. He ranked 98^th among 109 at his position and allowed 27 completions on 43 attempts (62.8%) for 350 yards (8.1 YPA), 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 1 deflection, and 2 penalties. It’s pretty pathetic that he was that bad as just a 3^rd cornerback and Griffin will be a major upgrade over him.

At safety, things are actually worse. They have a bunch of castoffs atop their depth chart. Brandon Meriweather and Tanard Jackson were both met with a very unwelcoming free agency market. Meriweather was cut by the Patriots and benched by the Bears last season, while Jackson was ProFootballFocus’ 6^th worst safety with a -14.7 rating, the reason why the Buccaneers cut him this offseason. No one missed more tackles than Jackson did last year, 24. They’re expected to be the starters.

Madieu Williams will challenge them for the starting job. He barely played last year as a backup in San Francisco and was horrific the last time he was a starter in the league, with a -13.4 rating in 2010. Only one player was worse than that during that season. Reed Doughty could also be in the mix. He’s their most proven returning player at the position, but he too was awful last year with a -14.2 rating, 7^th worst at the position. DeJon Gomes could also be in the mix, but he barely played last year as he was just a 5^th round rookie. He’s unproven, but I guess that’s better than terrible, which everyone ahead of him on the depth chart is.

Overall, things are pretty bleak in the secondary for the Redskins, but they have some talent and good defenses do start upfront. The Redskins have an above average front 7 and a strong pass rush which should help make their pass defense at least passable. All in all, I think this is a solid defense and with an above average offense, they should definitely be able to compete for a playoff spot in 2012.

Grade: C+

Head Coach

Shanahan’s reputation has taken a hit over the past 2 seasons, but he does have a 154-108 career record, which is pretty impressive. Some will say that he only has 2 Super Bowl rings because of John Elway, but remember Elway didn’t win a ring before him. Shanahan has also had success with several different quarterbacks. It wasn’t just Elway. He had success with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler.

Yes, he has an 11-21 record in the last 2 years, but he had a decrepit Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and John Beck as his quarterbacks. You can blame him for choosing those guys as his quarterbacks, but he never had much of a choice as the incumbent when he entered was Jason Campbell, who isn’t much better than any of those guys. This offseason, he made a bold move I really liked to secure a franchise quarterback, Robert Griffin. The Griffin/Shanahan duo should have success in the future and make people forget about the McNabb/Grossman/Beck days.

Grade: B+

Overall

One team has gone from 5 or fewer wins one year to the playoffs the next every season since 2003. The teams that would qualify in 2012: Indianapolis, St. Louis, Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Washington, and Jacksonville. I think Washington has the best chance of that bunch. They should have an above average offense and a solid defense, which definitely puts them right in the race for a playoff spot even in a tight NFC and I’m going to give them the 6^th and final playoff spot.

They play in a tough division, but they should still be able to tough out 3-3 or 4-2. Outside of the division, they host Cincinnati, Atlanta, Minnesota, Carolina, and Baltimore. Minnesota is going to be a pretty easy game for them and I think they can go at least 2-2 in the other 4 games at home. Atlanta is not a good road team and I think Cincinnati and Baltimore will both disappoint this year. Carolina still has struggles defensively and could have another sub .500 year this year so 3-2 or 4-1 in non-divisional home games is possible.

That puts them at 7-4 across those 11 games. Their final 5 games, their non-divisional road games, send them to New Orleans, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland. New Orleans and Pittsburgh should be tough ones, but the other 3 are all going to be pretty easy, so 10-6 or 11-5 is definitely in reach. That’s what it will take to win a wild card spot in the NFC. That will also qualify them to be this year’s super sleeper, a team that wins 6+ more games than the year before. There’s one every year.

Update: Robert Griffin’s offensive line has been so horrific this preseason and admittedly I may have been a little bit too high on them, especially in a crowded NFC. I like Griffin and their receivers and their defensive front 7, but their secondary and offensive line are way too glaring of holes to have in a passing league like this.

Projection: 8-8 3rd in NFC East

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San Francisco 49ers 2012 NFL Season Preview

July 9, 2012 stevenlourie 2012 NFL Season Previews, 49ers

Offense

We all know what happened with the 49ers last year. After a near decade of mediocrity, across several different unsuccessful Head Coaches, the 49ers shocked the league in their 1^st year under Head Coach Jim Harbaugh going 13-3 ended up 2 special teams gaffes away from the Super Bowl. The defense was one of, if not the best in the league, ranking tied for 10^th against the pass, tied for 1^st against the run, and 2^nd in total scoring, only .1 points behind league leading Pittsburgh.

Quarterback

However, the big story in San Francisco was a breakout year for Alex Smith. Smith was incredibly mediocre throughout his 6 years in San Francisco. He never lived up to his billing as the #1 overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft, but he was just good enough to keep his job almost every year as the quarterback of a mediocre football club. He went through seemingly a different offensive coordinator every year and had minimal offensive help and he looked like damaged goods.

That all changed when Harbaugh came in. Harbaugh believed in Alex Smith as a starter and catered the offense around his strengths. Smith was hardly an elite quarterback, but he did just enough to win a lot of games for this team. The most important stat for him was 5: 5 interceptions, easily the best in the league.

The 49ers spent this offseason building around Smith, trying to get him more weapons offensively. They brought in two running backs, LaMichael James, a 2^nd round pick, and Brandon Jacobs, a veteran short yardage back, as well as 3 wide receivers, AJ Jenkins, a 1^st round pick, Mario Manningham, a former starter of the New York Giants, and Randy Moss, a reclamation project heading into his age 35 season. While that could make this a more explosive passing offense, it’s also reasonable to think that the offense will be less efficient.

The 49ers had the fewest turnovers in the league last year with 10, including 5 interceptions by Smith. In fact, that was tied for the fewest turnovers ever in a single season. It’s unrealistic to think they can match that number. Since 2002, 36 teams have had 20 or fewer turnovers in a season. In the next season, those teams had an average of 9.64 more turnovers and thus won an average of 2.69 fewer games.

Of those 36 teams, only one had fewer turnovers the next season and only one had the same number of turnovers the next season. Those teams were both the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts achieved 20 or fewer turnovers 5 times over that time period so they would seem to be an outlier, and the only one. Of those 36 teams, only 4 won more games the next season. 3 of them: you guessed it. The Indianapolis Colts. The 49ers don’t have nearly that established of a quarterback. Every year since 2003, at least one team that had a 1^st round bye misses the playoffs the next season. The 49ers are clearly a candidate to do that this year.

Grade: B-

Running backs

As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers brought in two new running backs this offseason, Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James. The 49ers were already one of the better running teams in the league so I don’t know how much this helps, but it at least makes them more versatile offensively. Brandon Jacobs is the short yardage back they lacked last season and while Kendall Hunter has good speed and is a good pass catcher, LaMichael James is better in both of those aspects than him, though he is very one dimensional.

Frank Gore is heading into his age 29 season and while Jim Harbaugh insists that their moves at running back this offseason are not an indictment on Frank Gore’s abilities, I would be very surprised if he didn’t see fewer carries than he normally does. Kendall Hunter, a 4^th round pick in 2011, is a talented back and potential successor to Gore’s lead back role. He’s their 2^nd most talented back, in my opinion, ahead of the unproven LaMichael James.

James is a big name, but he was also a reach in the 2^nd round. He’s undersized and already has a lot of carries and injuries carrying over from his collegiate days at Oregon. He was a fantastic college player, but his game relies too much on defensive missed assignments in run support and that doesn’t happen often enough in the NFL for him to be that successful. Just look at how good collegiate defenses like LSU, Auburn, and Stanford (the full strength 2010 version) held him in check.

The 49ers obviously drafted him with Darren Sproles, who had a big game against them last season, in mind, but Sproles is a one of a kind player and the 49ers will be very disappointed if they think James will be as good. Brandon Jacobs, meanwhile, is going to be 30 and doesn’t have much left, but the 49ers probably only need him in short yardage situations and at 265 pounds, he still has the size and power to do that effectively.

Grade: B+

Wide receivers/Tight ends

In addition to the two running backs they brought in this offseason, the 49ers also brought in 3 wide receivers, as I already mentioned. This was a focus of their offseason and rightfully so. Kyle Williams is the easy scapegoat for their NFC Championship game loss to the New York Giants, but their receivers’ inability to get open likely cost them at least the 10 points Williams did and unlike Williams, they were all playing a position they naturally play. Tight end Vernon Davis had a huge game, but only Michael Crabtree (1 catch for 3 yards) had any statistical production from the wide receiver spot.

Crabtree, drafted 10^th overall in 2009 to be their #1 wide receiver, has yet to emerge as such yet. His poor performance in the NFC Championship game is one example, as is the fact that he’s never gone over 1000 yards in a season. The 49ers did not bring in a legitimate #1 wide receiver this offseason, but they got some guys they think will help.

Mario Manningham, AJ Jenkins, and Randy Moss will help, but probably not as much as they think. Manningham is a marginal talent who Eli Manning made look a lot better than he is. AJ Jenkins is reportedly having an awful camp and may open the season 5^th on their depth chart behind, in some order, Crabtree, Moss, Manningham, and Kyle Williams (a better receiver than return man). A surprise 1^st round pick, Jenkins has not made them look shrewd yet. Moss, meanwhile, is making them look shrewd as he reportedly is dominating in practice. However, at age 35 in August, after being out of the league last year and essentially having a lost year in 2010 with 3 teams, I’m in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode with Moss.

With what can still be categorized as an average at best wide receiver group, the 49ers will need a strong effort from tight end Vernon Davis. If the way he ended last season is any indication, they’ll get that. In Davis’ last 5 games, including playoffs, he had 28 catches for 536 yards and 5 touchdowns. He admits he didn’t know the playbook fully early in the season, but once he did, he really caught fire.

Last year overall was a down year statistically for him with 67 catches for 792 yards and 6 touchdowns, but remember, he had 78 catches for 965 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2009 and 56 catches for 914 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010. In his 2^nd year in the offense, he could surpass 900 yards or even 1000 yards again. I’d say he’s the 3^rd most talented tight end in the league behind Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham when you consider what he can do as both a receiver and a blocker, but he doesn’t always play like it.

The 49ers also use a lot of 2-tight end sets with Delanie Walker, an underrated part of this offense. With an improved Vernon Davis and additions at wide receiver and running back, the 49ers’ offense should be slightly more explosive this season, but the decrease in efficiency that comes with an increase in turnovers should counteract that and then some.

Grade: C+

Offensive line

Alex Smith’s breakout year last year is even more amazing when you consider that this offensive line played pretty poorly. Smith was actually the most sacked quarterback in the league last year. Several teams allowed more sacks than the 49ers’ 44, but, as you can expect, most of the other team’s quarterbacks got injured so Smith actually led the league in sacks taken.

The biggest problem, at least in pass protection, is right tackle Anthony Davis. Davis has allowed 21 sacks in his first 2 years in the league combined and probably would not be starting anymore if he wasn’t the 11^th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. If he struggles again this year, even that won’t be enough to save his job and he would likely either be cut or resigned at a reduced salary in either a backup role or at another position. Jim Harbaugh has shown no loyalty to disappointments drafted by Mike Singletary, sending Taylor Mays to the Cincinnati Bengals for a pack of peanuts last offseason.

There was some speculation that Davis could even be moved to another position this offseason, namely right guard. This is because the 49ers lost starting right guard Adam Snyder in free agency. Snyder wasn’t very good anyway. He finished the 2011 regular season with a -24.4 rating on ProFootballFocus, good for 3^rd worst at his position, struggling in both pass protection (2 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures) and run blocking. He also committed 4 penalties.

Adam Boone, a 2009 undrafted free agent who went undrafted for character reasons, rather than lack of talent, is penciled in as the starting right guard, though he’ll face competition from 4^th round rookie Joe Looney and 2011 5^th round pick Daniel Kilgore, who has also seen snaps at center this offseason. Boone is unproven and a natural offensive tackle, but he probably won’t be worse than Snyder was last year so this could end up being addition by subtraction for the 49ers, though it’s still hardly a position of strength.

The left side of the offensive line is better. Joe Staley is the definition of average at left tackle. He didn’t deserve to go to the Pro Bowl last year, but he shouldn’t be benched or anything. He graded out with a -1.7 on ProFootballFocus and ranked slightly above average in run blocking and slightly below average in pass protection, allowing 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, 21 quarterback pressures, and committing 6 penalties.

Next to him is left guard Mike Iupati. Iupati hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as the 17^th overall pick of the 2010 NFL Draft, but he was regarded as raw coming out and he hasn’t played poorly or anything. His +9.6 rating was good for 11^th among guards on ProFootballFocus last season. Now in his 3^rd year in the league, he could easily end up a Pro Bowler.

He’ll play next to Jonathan Goodwin, a decent, but declining talent who turns 34 in December. He could have a decline this season that would offset Iupati’s improvement, but interior linemen do age well, so he could have yet another solid season. He scored a -3.4 on ProFootballFocus last year. If he struggles, he’ll be pushed by 2011 5^th round pick Daniel Kilgore, a converted guard who the organization is fairly high on. As a group, they’ll probably rank towards the bottom of the league in sacks allowed last season, though they could improve on last season. Fortunately, they ranked 7^th on ProFootballFocus as a unit in run blocking, which should continue this season.

Grade: B-

Defense

As much as a lack of turnovers was the story offensively, a large amount of forced turnovers were the story defensively. And as is the case with giveaways, takeaways can fluctuate on a yearly basis even if a team’s talent level hasn’t actually changed. Since 2002, 35 teams have had 35 or more takeaways in a season (the 49ers had 38 last year). On average, those teams have had 10.58 fewer takeaways the next year and won 2.00 fewer games, with only 6 surpassing their win total from the year before.

That’s not the only reason I expect the 49ers to be worse defensively this year. Yes, they return 11 starters, assuming franchise player Dashon Goldson signs. However, they were so good last year and it’ll almost be impossible for them to recreate, especially since so many players had the best seasons of their career. NaVorro Bowman, Ray McDonald, Dashon Goldson, Carlos Rogers, Aldon Smith, Tarell Brown and Ahmad Brooks all had breakout years, while Justin Smith, Isaac Sopoaga, and Donte Whitner each had arguably the best season of their careers. The only player who didn’t have a breakout or career year was Patrick Willis, who is awesome no matter what. If a few of those guys don’t do that again, it’ll be noticeable.

They also had minimal injuries defensively. Patrick Willis missed a few games, but aside from that, they had all 11 starters on the field all year. That almost never happens. They don’t have very much proven depth at all. Basically, everything went right for the 49ers’ defense last year. They got all the turnovers, had breakout years, and didn’t get hurt. If that doesn’t happen again, they won’t play as well.

Defensive line

Justin Smith made a legitimate case for defensive player of the year last year. His 47.5 rating on ProFootballFocus was 2^nd only to Von Miller and if you include playoffs, no defense player had a higher rating than him. He had 7 sacks, 14 quarterback hits, and 48 quarterback pressures, while grading out well above average against the run. Last year was arguably the best season of his career, but it’s not like he’s been bad other years. He’s a very, very good player and the only issue is his age, 33 in September.

While Smith graded out first among 3-4 defensive ends on ProFootballFocus, his bookend Ray McDonald graded out 3^rd, seemingly coming out of nowhere. It was a little head scratching when the 49ers resigned him to a fairly large deal last offseason, even though he had never been a starter, but that move is looking genius right now. Unlike Smith, however, he is still a one year wonder and he’s a candidate to be one of the players who has an inferior season in 2012.

Smith and McDonald combine with nose tackle Isaac Sopoaga to make what looks, on paper, like one of the best defensive lines in the league. Sopoaga also had his best year last year, with a 5.5 rating. As is a theme throughout the defense, depth is lacking and unproven. Ricky Jean-Francois is their top backup both inside and out. He played pretty well in 275 snaps last year (173 inside and 102 outside), but has never been a starter.

Grade: A

Linebackers

As good as their defensive line is, their linebackers might be equally good or even better, at least on paper. Patrick Willis needs no explanation. He was a Pro Bowler without Jim Harbaugh and he’s still one with him. He missed a few games last year, but Larry Grant played admirably in his absence. Grant might be their best reserve so middle linebacker is one spot where they don’t lack depth.

On the outside, Aldon Smith made a strong case for rookie of the year last year. He had 15 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures in a part time role, despite only playing 506 snaps. He’ll be an every down player this year, but considering he still managed nearly as many pass rush attempts as an every down player (355 of his 506 snaps were rushing the passer), I can’t see his pass rush totals going up much as his pass rushing ratio (a sack/hit/pressure on 18.0% of plays) appears unsustainable by any football player. He’ll need to improve as a run stopper and in coverage if he wants to take the next step as a football player.

Parys Haralson, who split time with Smith last season, will be their top reserve this season. He’s solid in coverage and against the run, but offers almost no pass rush. If either of the starting outside linebackers go down with an injury, their pass rush will suffer. Aside from Smith, Haralson, and Ahmad Brooks, no outside linebacker played a snap for them last season. Brooks will start opposite Smith. He finally put everything together last year after flashing talent for the past few years. He had 6 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 37 quarterback pressures.

Grade: A

Secondary

While the front 7 for the 49ers is amazing and probably the best in the league, the secondary is not nearly as talented and their strong play last season was in large part due to their front 7’s strong play in front of them. Carlos Rogers, a former 1^st round pick bust, signed a one year deal with the cornerback needy 49ers last offseason and immediately stepped up as their #1 cornerback, allowing 56 completions on 106 attempts for 761 yards (7.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 8 penalties, and 2 penalties, ranking 9^th at his position with a 9.4. However, he’s a one year wonder on the wrong side of 30 who just got a significant contract. He could easily have a down year this year.

Opposite him, Tarell Brown is a marginal starter who surprised in his 1^st year as a starter last year. He’s young so he could continue improving this year, but at the same time, he could regress as well. In the nickel, 2011 3^rd round pick Chris Culliver beat criticism that he was a tweener and that the 49ers reached for him and emerged as a solid slot cornerback. They also signed Perrish Cox for added depth. He’s young and impressing in camp, but missed all of last season with legal problems and struggled mightily the last time he was a starter, back when he was with the Broncos.

At safety, the 49ers expect to have Dashon Goldson and Donte Whitner. Goldson is, as of this writing, an unsigned franchise player, but there have been no indications that they won’t come to terms with him on some sort of deal before Training Camp. Goldson made the Pro Bowl last year on the strength of 6 interceptions and he’s also above average against the run. However, he was frequently torched in coverage, allowing 29 completions on 43 attempts (67.4%) for 458 yards (10.7 YPA), 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 2 deflections, and 4 penalties.

His interceptions can largely be credited to the front 7 creating consistent pressure. He’s not good in coverage, but he’s opportunistic and has good ball skills. However, as I’ve already mentioned, turnovers can vary yearly for no apparent reason. Whitner, meanwhile, is also poor in coverage and good against the run. There’s been some rumors that CJ Spillman, who barely played last year, will platoon with Whitner this season and come in during obvious passing situations. Spillman is their top reserve after they lost Reggie Smith and Madieu Williams this offseason and while he’s impressing in camp, he played just 14 snaps last year so he’s hardly proven depth.

Grade: B

Head Coach

Not much explanation needed here. Harbaugh rebuilt Stanford’s football program, turning them from 1 win in 2006 to a perennial BCS bowl contender in 4 years and then won the NFL’s Head Coach of the Year Award last year, taking a perennial non-playoff team to the NFC Championship game and turning Alex Smith from a bust into a legitimate starting quarterback. He hasn’t been in the league very long, but he’s clearly one of the best.

Grade: A

Overall

Veteran quarterback in his 9^th year in the NFL, with more interceptions than touchdowns in his career to this point and an offensive genius Head Coach, leads team to 13 wins and a 2 seed on the strength of his 18 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and 3366 passing yards, the league’s 3^rd ranked scoring defense, and a +18 turnover differential (34 takeaways, 16 giveaways). After a bye, he knocks off a recent Super Bowl winning quarterback in the 2^nd round before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions in the Conference Championship.

Guess who?

…

Jake Plummer.

Plummer and the Broncos went 8-8 the following season. Because of the variability of turnovers on a yearly basis, I expect the 49ers to be worse both offensively and defensively this year. Their +28 turnover ratio is not replicable and turnovers have a direct relation with wins. Since 2002, teams with 35 or takeaways have had had 10.58 fewer takeaways and 2 fewer wins in their next season. Teams with 35 or more had 27.5 in their next season and teams with 20 or fewer had 25.8 in their next season.

On the flip side, teams with 20 or fewer turnovers have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games the following season. The teams who’ve had 35 or more turnovers since 2002 have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 averaged by the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers.

Meanwhile, teams with differential of +15 have had a differential 16.35 points lower and won 2.3 fewer games the following season. Further proving that takeaways and turnovers vary on a yearly basis is the fact that the teams with differentials higher than +15 and teams with differential lower than -15 have almost the same differential in their next season, a difference of .7. The 49ers probably won’t come close to the record +28 turnover differential they had last year and that will show this year.

They also have much tougher schedule. They have to go to New Orleans, New England, and Green Bay and should consider themselves lucky to go 1-2 in those games. They have an easy divisional schedule, but it’s very tough to run the table in a division. They didn’t even do that last year. Expect 4 or 5 wins in the division, which basically puts them at 5-4 in the division/3 tough road games. They’ll have to go 5-2 in their other 7 games to even get double digits wins.

Their other 7 games home for Detroit, at Minnesota, at NY Jets (1 PM ET start), home for Buffalo, home for the Giants, home for Chicago. That’s not the toughest schedule, but it’s not an easy one either. As I said, every year since 2003, one team goes from a 1^st round bye to out of the playoffs, which means that one of New England, Green Bay, Baltimore, and San Francisco will almost definitely not make the playoffs. San Francisco is certainly a candidate. They’re also a candidate to be this year’s plummeter, a team that wins 6+ fewer games than the year before.

There are other reasons to believe they’ll be both a faller (from 1st round bye to out of the playoffs) and a plummeter (win 6+ fewer games). For one, they were part of the 5 in last year. Since 2003, teams that make the playoffs after having previously missed the playoffs actually fail to make the playoffs 62.5% of the time the following season. For reference, any given team has a 62.5% chance of missing the playoffs in a given year as only 12 of 32 make the playoffs.

Since 2003, of the 16 teams who have gone from out of the playoffs to a 1st round bye, 7 did the opposite thing the following season. Those teams also won, on average, -3.2 fewer games the following year. Meanwhile, teams that win 6+ more games than the year before win, on average, 3.88 fewer games the following season. So many things have to go right for a team to improve by that much and so many things have to go wrong for a team to get that much worse.

Last year, San Francisco had a record +28 turnover differential, which we’ve proven is both unsustainable and unpredictable on a yearly basis. They only had one defensive starter (Patrick Willis) miss any games defensively. They also had career years from 10 of 11 defensive starters (exception: Patrick Willis). If their turnover differential goes towards zero, and a few guys on defense miss significant time, and several guys regress defensively (all totally reasonable things), this team could easily miss the playoffs and win 6+ fewer games.

Projection: 7-9 2nd in NFC West

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Month: July 2012

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