Offense
The Jets have been in the news so much lately that you’d think they were 3-time defending Super Bowl Champions. Instead, all they did was trade for Tim Tebow a few months ago. The reason they did that was because Mark Sanchez regressed in his 3rd season in the league last year after back-to-back. Actually, he didn’t really regress. The Jets just didn’t have the same supporting cast they had in 2009 and 2010.
Sanchez statistically played about as well as he did in 2009 and 2010. In 2009 and 2010 combined, he completed 474 of 871 (54.4%) for 5735 yards (6.6 YPA), 29 touchdowns, and 33 interceptions. Last season, he completed 308 of 543 (56.7%) for 3474 yards (6.4 YPA), 26 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. In fact, you could argue that Sanchez actually played better last season than in his first two seasons. He’s always been mediocre. We’ve just never noticed because the Jets have done a great job at masking him and making his job easier.
So what happened last year? Well after ranking 1st in the league in rushing yards in 2009 and 4th in 2010, the Jets ranked just 22nd last season. They didn’t just get a less talented on the ground in 2011, averaging 3.8 YPC, as opposed to 4.4 YPC in 2010 and 4.5 YPC in 2009. They also didn’t run the ball as much. In 2009, they led the league with 607 carries and in 2010 they had 534, 2nd in the league. Last year, they had just 443 carries, 16th in the league.
This was because of a much leakier than normal defense. In 2009, they ranked 1st in the league, allowing 14.8 points per game and in 2010, they ranked 6th, allowing 19.0 points per game. However, in 2011, they ranked 20th, allowing 22.7 points per game. This forced Sanchez to throw a career high 543 times, after throwing a combined 871 times in 2009 and 2010. This made their turnover total rise from 51 combined in 2009 and 2010 to 34 last season alone.
The offense has never been what’s made this team go. In 2009, they ranked 17th in the league with 21.8 points per game and in 2010, they ranked 13th with 22.9 points per game. In 2011, they didn’t really change much, as they ranked 13th with 23.6 points per game. Sanchez has less receiving talent, offensive line talent, and running back talent around him as opposed to 2009 and 2010, but if the defense can bounce back, they should be able to have a bounce back year and compete for a playoff spot, in theory.
The reason I say in theory is because everything I’m hearing about their locker room chemistry, morale, and intangibles is descriptive of a team profoundly screwed up behind the scenes. #1 receiver Santonio Holmes is a major malcontent, while cornerback Antonio Cromartie thinks so little of the receiving corps that he says he could be the team’s #2 receiver, after which #2 Chaz Schilens said he felt “slighted.”
Holmes has already publicly stated that he doesn’t think a two-quarterback system can work, which is essentially him saying that he doesn’t agree with the coaching staff’s game plan. Former teammate LaDainian Tomlinson also thinks that Santonio Holmes will check out mentally in a run heavy offense. Last year, he caused major locker room problems with his comments about his quarterback and his offensive line. He was almost cut this offseason after a disappointing statistical year last year, when he caught just 51 passes for 645 yards and 8 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the locker room could be split between Tebow and Sanchez. Sanchez is the starting quarterback, but Tebow might be the locker room favorite, which could cause all sorts of problems, as could their two-quarterback system, especially for someone who is not that respected to begin with like Sanchez. This team doesn’t have a central quarterback leader, which could be dangerous.
Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason, which the Jets could easily do, rarely make the playoffs. The Broncos last year were an obvious exception, but they had a very fluky year for a number of reasons, including making the playoffs with a Pythagorean Expectation of 5.8 wins. Even if they don’t switch quarterbacks, the two-quarterback system could lead to the same problems. It’s why no one has two-quarterback systems. It’s bad for team morale and chemistry. Yes, I’m agreeing with Santonio Holmes, who I called a malcontent. He’s right, but to say it isn’t good for the team. I also agree with Antonio Cromartie, but same thing there and the fact that he could be their #2 receiver is indicative of other problems.
Quarterback
I’ve already detailed Mark Sanchez and why I don’t think he’s a franchise quarterback. With the right mix of players around him, he can lead a successful team, but, when he has an average supporting cast, he gets really exposed and will struggle. His stats have been pretty bad in all 3 seasons and now, heading into his 4th year in the league, I don’t think the 5th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft will ever get much better.
Advanced statistics don’t like him either. Last season, his adjusted QB rating (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, batted passes, or yards after catch) of 76.18 ranked 30th in the league out of 35 eligible quarterbacks. That’s actually worse than Tim Tebow, who ranked 25th. His accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) of 35.1% on balls that go longer than 20+ yards in the air ranked 26th out of 30 and his under pressure accuracy percentage of 49.0% was 34th out of 35 quarterbacks. He also showed poor pocket presence, taking a sack on 23.8% of his pressured snaps, 8th worst in the NFL.
The Jets might as well try Tebow as the starting quarterback. He beat Sanchez head-to-head last season despite having a worse supporting cast. His game is perfect for the Jets because he’ll open things up on the ground and make this a great running team, in addition to a strong defensive team (assuming a bounce back year defensively). He’s not much of a passer obviously, but the Jets are not built to be a passing team. He would also solve the two-quarterback problem. If Tebow is the starting quarterback and Sanchez is the backup, I think it would cause less of a locker room split than what has taken place in just the last few months with Sanchez as the starter and Tebow as the backup.
Tebow’s passing stats last season weren’t great, as he completed just 46.5% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. However, those stats are a little skewed because he had a really poor supporting cast, especially on the offensive line and in the receiving corps, and because his coaching staff only really let him throw in obvious passing situations, which made it easier for the opponent to defend. 80 of his 271 passing attempts came on 3rd or 4th down, 29.5%, one of the highest rates in the league.
He also elevated his game in the clutch, completing 67 of 124 (54.0%) for 999 yards (8.1 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the 4th quarter and overtime. After passing attempt 20 of a given game, he completed 35 of 60 (58.3%) for 397 yards (6.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Not coincidentally, those were the situations when his coaching staff would take the chains off him and let him play his game.
He also was instrumental in the Broncos leading the league in rushing with 2632 yards, on a 4.8 YPC average. Not only he did rush for 660 yards and 6 touchdowns on his own on 122 carries (5.4 YPC), he opened things up on the ground for Willis McGahee, once a washed up back. At age 30, McGahee had one of his best seasons, rushing for 1199 yards and 4 touchdowns on 249 carries (4.8 YPC), his best season since 2007. Opposing front 7s almost always had to use a spy when playing the Broncos last year, for fear of Tebow taking off, which weakens and distracts their overall run defense as they try to stop running backs.
He was for McGahee what Michael Vick was for LeSean McCoy and what Vince Young was for Chris Johnson In the last 2 seasons, McCoy has carried the ball 375 times for 1954 yards (5.2 YPC) and 21 touchdowns in 24 games with Michael Vick and 105 times for 435 yards (4.1) and 3 touchdowns in 6 games without him. Meanwhile, Chris Johnson averaged 5.4 yards per carry in 2009, when Vince Young was his primary quarterback. In 2010, he rushed for 4.8 YPC with Young and 3.8 YPC without him. Last year, without him at all, he averaged just 4.0 YPC. For a Jets team that is best when they run first, he makes the most sense at quarterback.
Unfortunately, Sanchez is currently the starting quarterback and the Jets don’t have their until bye week 9 so they might not make the switch until it’s too late. The Jets have a tough early schedule (vs. Buffalo, @ Pittsburgh, @ Miami, vs. San Francisco, vs. Houston, vs. Indianapolis, @ New England). If the Jets come out of that 2-5, they might make the switch then, but it’ll probably be too late.
They’ll have to go at least 7-2 to make the playoffs after that kind of start and Tebow can’t be counted on to do that barring another freak stretch like he had last season. Teams that switch quarterbacks midseason rarely make the playoffs for a reason and I’m not expecting another Tebow miracle. Maybe in 2013 and beyond Tebow can make them a competitive team in the AFC if the team plays their cards right, but I don’t really like their chances that much in 2012.
Grade: C+
Running Backs
When the Jets were at their best, they did it by running more than they passed and they did that by having 2 backs. Now they only really have one, Shonn Greene. Greene is a pretty mediocre runner, who averages 4.3 YPC in his career and has only caught 46 passes in 3 seasons. Last season, Greene had to carry the ball a career high 253 times because he didn’t have Thomas Jones splitting carries with him like he did in 2009 and because LaDainian Tomlinson, who split carries with him in 2010, got old in a hurry and only had 75 carries.
Greene was pretty mediocre, rushing for just 1054 yards and 6 touchdowns (4.1 YPC), a big part of the reason why they managed just 3.8 YPC on the ground, 30th in the league. That, along with a weakened defense, led to the Jets ranking just 22nd in rushing yards last year, which, of course, put too much pressure on Mark Sanchez, which sky rocketed their turnover total.
This year, he is expected to get even more of a work load, with LaDainian Tomlinson gone and the team planning to run more overall, which is not a good thing. Having Tebow at quarterback, functioning essentially as a 2nd running back, would help take some of the load off of him and also open things up on the ground for him the way Tebow did for Willis McGahee last season.
The Jets’ other running back options are Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight. Powell was a 2011 4th round pick who rushed for just 21 yards on 13 carries as a rookie last year. McKnight, meanwhile, went in the 4th round in 2010. He’s averaged just 3.9 YPC in his career on 82 carries, including 134 yards on 43 carries last year (3.1 YPC). He reported to offseason practices 15 pounds overweight after “bulking up,” which he admits was aided by a McDonalds heavy offseason diet. They’ll compete for a 3rd down role, but neither is capable of being the true compliment to Shonn Greene they need.
Grade: B-
Offensive Line
The lack of a secondary back wasn’t the only reason why the Jets struggled on the ground in 2011. Their offensive line play didn’t help. They were alright in pass protection, ranking 12th in pass blocking efficiency, but they ranked 13th as run blockers on ProFootballFocus, after ranking 7th and 6th in 2009 and 2010 respectively. That hurt them. The biggest loss was right tackle Damien Woody, who was replaced by the incompetent Wayne Hunter. However, left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, left guard Matt Slauson, and right guard Brandon Moore all had down seasons as run blockers as compared to 2010.
Ferguson had a down year in general, not just as a run blocker. In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 5th rated left tackle, allowing just 2 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, while committing 5 penalties and run blocking well. In 2011, he allowed 8 sacks, 7 quarterback pressures, and 22 quarterback hits, while committing 3 penalties and ranked 62nd out of 73 players as a run blocker at his position. His down year not only contributed to a down year for the Jets’ line as run blockers, but in pass protection, as the Jets went from 1st in pass blocking efficiency in 2010 to 12th in 2011.
Opposite him, Wayne Hunter also contributed to their inferior offensive line play in both aspects. Hunter was awful, ranking 67th at his position overall, allowing 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 11 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. He was awful in 2010 as well, making 7 starts in place of an injured Damien Woody, allowing 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, while struggling as a run blocker and committing 8 penalties. Ferguson could easily bounce back, but he probably won’t. He’ll be the weak link on this offensive line this season.
Both of their guards struggled as run blockers in 2011 as well. Right guard Brandon Moore was strong in pass protection once again, allowing 0 sacks, 0 quarterback hits, and 14 quarterback pressures, but struggled as a run blocker. Left guard Matt Slauson, was mediocre as a pass protector again, allowing 4 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures, but also struggled as a run blocker in 2011. Both were better as run blockers in 2010 and could have bounce back years as well.
The only position that wasn’t inferior from 2010 to 2011 was center. Nick Mangold once again had an amazing season. ProFootballFocus’ top rated center in 2008, 2009, and 2010, Mangold ranked 2nd in 2011. His strength is run blocking, but he can pass protect well, as well, allowing just 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures.
One issue for the Jets on the offensive line is depth as 4 of 5 starters didn’t miss any time with injury last season. The Jets haven’t had a lot of injuries up front in any of the last 3 seasons, as no starters missed time in 2008 or 2009 and only one, Woody, missed time in 2010. That leads to inexperienced backups who would be very unprepared if anything happens to the starters in 2012. The only starter who missed time last was Nick Mangold and, in his absence, Colin Baxter was absolutely awful. Despite only making 3 starts, Baxter finished the season ranked 56th out of 65 centers who played a snap in 2011, in large part because of his atrocious run blocking.
If injuries strike this season, which they really haven’t in 4 seasons, Baxter and Vladimir Ducasse will be their top reserves. Ducasse, a 2010 2nd round pick, has been awful in his career when asked to play, which hasn’t been that often, as he’s played just 167 snaps in his career. Once considered Woody’s successor, Ducaase could be cut after the season if he doesn’t improve. However, barring major injuries, this should be an improved offensive line this season from last season. Wayne Hunter is their only true weak link. They might not be the elite line they were in 2009 and 2010, but they’ll be better.
Grade: B+
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Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Santonio Holmes is the Jets’ #1 receiver, but he was almost cut this offseason after a down year statistically in 2011 and after causing major locker room problems. On 98 targets, he caught just 51 passes (52.0%) for 645 yards and 8 touchdowns last season, the worst season of his career. This offseason, he’s up to his old tricks, having meltdowns in practice, missing a lot of time with various injuries, and undermining the coaching staff’s offensive game plan publicly, just a few days after ex-teammate LaDainian Tomlinson said that Holmes would mentally check out in a run heavy offense.
Opposite him, Chaz Schilens and Stephen Hill will compete for the starting job. Schilens has talent, but he’s also very injury prone. In 4 seasons, the 2008 7th round pick has caught 72 passes for 902 yards and 7 touchdowns. Hill, meanwhile, is a mere 2nd round rookie. Rookie receivers tend to struggle and Hill could especially, coming out of a triple option offense at Georgia Tech.
However, at 6-5, Hill should at least be able to replace Plaxico Burress around the goal line. Burress only caught 50.0% of his targets last year, so Hill can’t be much worse. He also has upside if Tebow becomes the starting quarterback, because Tebow had great chemistry with a similar player, Demaryius Thomas, in Denver. Like Thomas, Hill is not a good route runner, but he’s got immense athleticism.
These receivers are a far cry from Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Jerricho Cotchery in 2010. Edwards and Holmes were both at their best then. Now Edwards and Cotchery are gone, Holmes is not at his best, and they really only have one proven starting wide receiver. With a weakened receiving corps in 2011, tight end Dustin Keller took over more of the offensive responsibility, leading the team with 65 catches on 109 targets and for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns. He could have another strong year, even if only out of necessity. Behind him on the depth chart, Matt Mulligan is a strong run blocking tight end.
The Jets offense will be at their best if they can be run heavy and do it effectively. A better defense will allow them to be run heavy, but they’re thin at running back so I don’t think they’ll be able to do it that effectively, even with an improved offensive line. Because of this, they’ll be their best offensively when Tebow is the starting quarterback because he will open things up for the backs and serve as a 2nd back himself. He also has a better chance of establishing a strong locker room presence, which this team desperately needs. Unfortunately, he is currently a backup and the 2nd quarterback in a two-quarterback system that is bound to fail. The Jets probably won’t make the switch until it’s too late.
Grade: C+
Defense
As I’ve mentioned, the Jets will obviously be a better team if they play better defensively. In 2009, they ranked 1st in the league, allowing 14.8 points per game and in 2010, they ranked 6th allowing 19.0 points per game. However, in 2011, they ranked 20th, allowing 22.7 points per game. There is reason to believe that last year’s performance is a fluke.
For one, the Jets ranked 5th in yards allowed last season (4993), 6th in passing yards per attempt (6.7 YPA), 7th against the run (3.9 YPC),and 4th in yards per play (5.0). Their defensive DVOA was 2nd in the league, leading to an overall DVOA that ranked 9th. Those numbers look eerily similar to their 2009 and 2010 numbers. In 2009, they ranked 1st in yards allowed (4037), 1st in YPA (5.4), 4th in YPC (3.8), 1st in yards per play (4.5), and 1st in defensive DVOA. In 2010, they ranked 3rd in yards allowed (4664), 6th in YPA (6.5), 3rd in YPC (3.6), 3rd in yards per play (4.8), and 6th in defensive DVOA. I’ve assembled all of this into a chart that can be seen below.
| Year | Points per game rank | Yards allowed rank | YPA allowed rank | YPC allowed rank | Yards per play rank | Defensive DVOA rank |
| 2009 | 1st | 1st | 1st | 4th | 1st | 1st |
| 2010 | 6th | 3rd | 6th | 3rd | 3rd | 5th |
| 2011 | 20th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 4th | 2nd |
A simple game of “find the outlier” shows that their 2011 points per game rank was a major outlier. They had a similar group of players as compared to 2010 and 2009 and still do. They had similar ranks in every statistic except points per game allowed as compared to 2010 and 2009. So why would they allow so many more points per game last season as compared to 2010 and 2009? Let’s do a little investigating.
Since DVOA became a stat following the 1992 season, teams who have a defensive DVOA that ranks at least 15 points higher than their rank in points per game allowed see an average of a 9 spot increase in their points per game allowed rank. If the average holds, the Jets would rank 11th in the league in scoring defense this year.
That’s obviously not certain, but the Jets do appear likely to bounce back defensively for other reasons. Their offense allowed 49 points last season, which gets added into points per game allowed just as points allowed by the offense does, as opposing defenses scored 7 times against the Jets last season, or once every 4.9 turnovers. There’s no real skill involved with stopping opposing defenses from scoring once they have the ball. It’s mostly luck. The average team surrenders a defensive touchdown once every 13.6 turnovers.
If the Jets turn the ball over 34 times next season, they can be expected to allow 2.5 defensive touchdowns, which would save them 32 points, or 2 points per game. The Jets allowed 22.7 points per game last season. 20.7 points per game would have ranked…12th, which coincidentally is an 8 spot improvement, only 1 less than the average improvement for teams that allow a lot of points despite high DVOAs.
The other issue is the shear amount that the Jets’ defense was on the field. Stats that are on a per play basis like DVOA, YPC, YPA, yards per play, and points per drive (6th with 1.55), love the Jets, but they faced 201 drives last season, 18 higher than the league average. The main reason for that was an offense that went 3 and out on 30.3% of their drives, 4th worst in the league. Tebow’s Broncos were actually worse than that last season so that probably won’t change much this season no matter who the quarterback is, unless Tebow starts a good amount of games and proves that he was being hurt by a system in Denver that really only let him throw in obvious passing situations (a possibility).
Still, for a defense that ranked in the top-10 in every statistic except points allowed and for a defense that ranked in the top-10 in points allowed in 2009 and 2010, with a similar group of players, they should bounce back and have a top-10 defense again this season. Even just their turnover to defensive touchdown rate regressing towards the mean would put them close to the top-10. They certainly have the talent.
Defensive Line
The Jets like to use a mix of 3-4, 4-3, and 46 fronts and will continue to do so this season. No matter the scheme, Sione Pouha and Muhammad Wilkerson, once again, will play the most snaps as they fit whatever scheme they run. In a 3-4, their base package, Pouha will play nose tackle and Wilkerson will play defensive end, while in a 4-3, Pouha and Wilkerson will both play defensive tackle, though Pouha could come out in obvious passing situations.
Pouha is not much of a pass rusher, which is why he comes out in obvious passing situations, but as far as two-down run stuffers go, very few are better than him. He ranked 2nd on ProFootballFocus among defensive tackles both overall and against the run and also chipped in 1 sack, 0 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures on 240 pass rush snaps, a decent 5.0% rate. The only issue with him is he’s heading into his age 33 season.
Wilkerson, however, is more of a complete defensive lineman. The 2011 1st round pick has prototypical size at 6-4 315 to play 3-4 defensive end and 4-3 defensive tackle. He stopped the run well as a rookie and also had 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures on 300 pass rush snaps, also a 5.0% rate, but he did it on more snaps and had more sacks. Heading into his 2nd season in the league, he could have a breakout year and play even more snaps than the 608 he played last season.
Rounding out their 3 man defensive line in a 3-4 is Mike Devito, the opposite defensive end. He too doesn’t generate any pass rush, with 1 sack, 1 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures on just 183 pass rush snaps, 5.5%, pretty bad for a situational player. However, he ranked 5th among 3-4 defensive ends against the run and 10th overall so he’s a valuable member of their 3-4 base package.
In all sub packages, DeVito will come out. In a 3-4 sub package, he’ll be replaced by Quinton Coples, the 16th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, but teams don’t run many 3-4 sub packages. In 4-3 sub packages, however, which they figure to run a lot of, Coples will play both inside and outside on the defensive line, something he did in college at North Carolina in a 4-3. As a defensive end, he’s a mismatch against the run and inside he’s a mismatch as a pass rusher.
Rounding out their 4-3 defensive line will be Calvin Pace. Pace is heading into his age 32 season and was average as a pass rusher last season, managing 5 sacks, 8 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures on 381 pass rush snaps, an average 9.4% rate. He’s most useful as a run stopper in the base package as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
Aaron Maybin, meanwhile, will rotate here as a situational player, either coming in for Calvin Pace at times or coming in for Coples when he moves to defensive tackle. Maybin, the 11th overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, was a complete bust in Buffalo and was cut after 2 years and no sacks, but he reinvented himself as a situational pass rusher last season with a team leading 6 sacks, to go with 2 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 197 pass rush snaps, a very good 12.2% pass rush rate as a situational player. The Jets have gotten him to bulk up after playing last season in the 220s and 230s, in order to be able to play more snaps and get better against the run. However, he struggled in the 240s in Buffalo so the added weight could hurt him.
Bryan Thomas, heading into his age 33 season and coming off a major injury, will also provide depth as a defensive end in a 4-3. Marcus Dixon, who struggled as a situational pass rusher last year, will do the same at defensive tackle. He had 2 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback pressures on 270 pass rush snaps, a 4.1% rate. Quinton Coples’ presence will lead to him playing much less, which is a good thing. Kenrick Ellis, a 2011 3rd round pick who barely played as a rookie, could also see some situational snaps inside in their 3-4 and 4-3. Things are going to be pretty much the same up front when they go to a 46 front, which only the Jets use extensively, only one defensive end will be offset more, essentially like a hybrid defensive end/rush linebacker. That will be either Pace or Maybin, most likely.
Grade: B+
Linebackers
In a 3-4, Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas are expected to be the starters on the outside, but Aaron Maybin will see his share of snaps there as well and Quinton Coples, who is incredibly versatile, might see some snaps there as well. Rex Ryan asked Coples to do some linebacker drills at his Pro Day before the draft, my first indication that he could be their pick, so maybe he’ll be used there this season in some packages.
Inside in a 3-4, David Harris, an above average starter, will start next to Bart Scott. Scott is heading into his age 32 season and might have been cut this offseason had it not been for the fact that his salary was fully guaranteed for this season. He probably won’t be around in 2013, but for now, he’s a solid 2-down run stuffer. He ranked 11th among middle linebackers overall and 6th among middle linebackers against the run on ProFootballFocus last season. 3rd round rookie Demario Davis will see some action as a situational player, primarily focusing on coverage.
In a 4-3, Harris will remain an every down linebacker, while Scott will play with Harris Bryan Thomas in any of their 4-3 base packages. In 4-3 sub packages, which figure to be more frequent, Davis will play next to Harris in two-linebacker sets, while Scott will come off the field and Thomas will provide depth at defensive end as a situational pass rusher. In a 46, the 4-3 sub package trio, Harris, Scott, Thomas, will be the 3 linebackers and a safety, likely LaRon Landry, will come down into the box and essentially be a 4th linebacker.
The Jets will show opposing offenses a lot of different fronts and they should get good play from them once again, as has been the case for the last 3 years. They’ve ranked 4th, 3rd, and 7th against the run over the past 3 seasons and a strong front 7 has been a big part of that. They don’t get a ton of pressure, with 32 sacks in 2009, 40 in 2010, and 35 in 2011, and they should remain only an average pass rushing team again this season, but the strength of their defense is a strong run stuffing front 7 and strong secondary play. Even with an average pass rush, they should have a strong ranking against the pass, as they have in the last 3 seasons. In 2009, they ranked 1st and in 2010 and 2011, they ranked 6th.
Grade: B+
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Secondary
Speaking of that strong secondary, the Jets have two very talented cornerbacks in Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. Revis was ProFootballFocus’ top rated cornerback last season, a title he’s held in 2 of the last 3 years. He’s been a top-3 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in 3 of the last 4 seasons and the only year he wasn’t was in 2010, when he ranked 8th. His “down year” that year was due to an extended holdout and lingering injuries.
Last season, he allowed 35 completions on 85 attempts (41.2%) for 508 yards (6.0 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 16 passes and only committing 3 penalties. The 45.6 QB rating he surrendered was 2nd among eligible cornerbacks (cornerbacks who played more than 50% of their team’s snaps), behind Ladarius Webb. His completion percentage allowed was best, a title he’s held for 3 straight seasons. In the last 4 seasons, he’s allowed 150 completions on 363 attempts (41.3%) for 1931 yards (5.3 YPA), 8 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, while deflecting 61 passes, and committing 13 penalties. That’s a QB rating allowed of 46.5, which is ridiculous. He’s easily the best cornerback in the NFL.
Cromartie, meanwhile, allowed 39 completions on 84 attempts (46.4%) for 566 yards (6.7 YPA), 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 7 penalties. Not a lot of teams can say their starting cornerbacks both allowed fewer than 50% completion last season, but the Jets can actually say their starting cornerbacks have done that in each of the last two seasons. This is clearly one of the top cornerback duos in the league.
The Jets do need their 3rd cornerback, Kyle Wilson, to step up. Wilson, a 2010 1st round pick, has not progressed well so far in his career. As purely a slot cornerback in 2011, he allowed 40 completions on 60 attempts (66.7%) for 499 yards (8.3 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 3 passes and committing 2 penalties. Cornerbacks can take a couple years to get adjusted to the NFL and a breakout year from him would obviously be huge, but there’s no guarantee that one’s coming.
Strong cornerbacks really mask their awful safeties, but they do have some awful safeties. Their oft injured starters from 2011, Brodney Pool and Jim Leonhard, are both gone and starting in their place will be long time backup Eric Smith, who has struggled mightily in his career when asked to start, and LaRon Landry, who was let go by the Redskins this offseason when he refused to get surgery on his injured Achilles. He’s doubtful to make it through a 16 game season.
Because of that, the Jets signed Yeremiah Bell. Bell and Smith are probably going to start the most games of this trio, but they ranked 73rd and 77th respectively on ProFootballFocus last season. Heading into his age 34 season, Bell won’t get any better. Landry, meanwhile, is no guarantee to play when even when healthy. He missed a good portion of the offseason program and, though he was a solid starter last year in Washington, he’s not likely to be 100%. I don’t know why he didn’t just get surgery. He’ll end up needing to get it at some point and he’ll probably miss most of this season.
The Jets also have two late round picks, 6th round pick Josh Bush and 7th round pick Antonio Allen, on the roster and they sadly could see action this year. Unless they have breakout rookie years, the Jets’ safety play could be among the worst in the league. That being said, they have enough talent elsewhere to have a bounce back year after a fluky 20th ranked scoring defense in 2011. They should be a top-10 scoring defense once again in 2012, which will help them be more run heavy on offense.
Grade: A-
Head Coach
Rex Ryan gets a lot of flak for making bold predictions that he has yet to be able to make good on, but all he’s trying to do is set high expectations for his team. Other teams also do the same thing privately in the locker room, but Ryan is a very extroverted guy who likes to make those predictions public. I don’t have a problem with his talking.
Besides, he’s produced results so far, making 2 NFC Championship games in 3 seasons and going 28-20 in the regular season and 4-2 in the playoffs. He’s also done a very good job with this defense, especially, which is his area of expertise. They were an 18th ranked scoring defense in 2008, before he took over and implemented his more complex defensive scheme, which also worked very well in Baltimore when he was the defensive coordinator. However, if the Jets underachieve for the 2nd straight year for chemistry issues, Ryan deserves to get the blame for that and calls for his job will be merited.
Grade: B+
Overall
I’m really torn on the Jets. On one hand, the defense almost definitely will bounce back, which will allow the offense to run more and Mark Sanchez to have to do less. That was their model in 2009 and 2010, when they made the playoffs, and in the inferior AFC, against an easy schedule, they could make the playoffs again following that same model, especially if Tim Tebow, the perfect quarterback for that model, takes over the job early. Tebow went 8-5 in 15 starts last season, including playoffs, despite having a worse defense supporting him and an equally bad supporting cast. Meanwhile, the Jets’ DVOA ranked 9th, which suggests that their 8-8 record was not totally indicative of their play last season.
On the other hand, their offensive supporting cast is not the same as it was in 2009 and 2010. Mark Sanchez has an inferior offensive line in both aspects, one of the thinnest receiving corps in the league, and a running game that averaged 3.8 YPC last year. Meanwhile, the chemistry, morale, and intangibles surrounding this team are a mess and teams that switch quarterbacks midseason rarely make the playoffs. Sanchez could easily not improve and Tebow might prove that last season was a fluke, which, on pure statistics, it looks like it was as the Broncos made the playoffs with just a Pythagorean Expectation of just 5.8 wins(though you can’t always go purely on statistics).
They could bounce back and make the playoffs and they could completely bottom out and get Rex Ryan fired. They’re one of three teams I’m completely torn on (all have unsolved quarterback situations, not coincidentally) and, like in the other 2 cases, I’m going to split the difference and put them at about 7 or 8 wins, out of the playoffs, but not completely bottomed out.
I think they’re the 3rd best team in the division, with Buffalo looking poised to contend for a playoff spot, so they should go 2-4 or 3-3 in their division. Meanwhile, outside of the division, they host San Francisco, Houston, Indianapolis, Arizona, and San Diego. Houston will be tough and San Diego is a late season game and they’re always tough then. They could go 3-2 or 2-3 in those 5 games. In the 11 games listed so far, 5-6 makes sense. In their other 5 games, they go to Pittsburgh, Seattle, St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. Seattle and St. Louis are good home teams and Pittsburgh is a very tough team. Tennessee won’t go down easy and Jacksonville is the only easy road game. They could easily go 7-9.
Projection: 7-9 3rd in AFC East
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