AFC Wild Card
#6 Buffalo Bills (10-6) at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
The Bills got to the playoffs following the decent quarterback, strong running game, good defense, easy schedule model. Those teams almost never make it out of the first round.
Steelers 20 Bills 10
#5 Tennessee Titans (11-5) at #4 San Diego Chargers (10-6)
Hey, San Diego, welcome back to the playoffs. Too bad you always choke there. Different year, same story with this bunch. I really like Tennessee this year and I think they’ll get better as the season goes on.
Titans 31 Chargers 27
NFC Wild Card
#6 Atlanta Falcons (11-5) at #3 New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Interesting, the Falcons, known as a poor road team, seem to have had the most success in New Orleans out of anyone over the last few years. However, I’m not picking against the Saints at home in the playoffs. Any chemistry and morale issues lingering from BountyGate will be a non-factor by this point in the year for the Saints.
Saints 34 Falcons 27
#5 Chicago Bears (12-4) at #4 St. Louis Rams (9-7)
In 2010, a team with 3 more wins played a “crappy” team from the west in the west team’s home stadium and lost (Saints/Seahawks). In 2011, the same thing happened (Broncos/Steelers). Can the Rams make it 3 in a row? They can. They’re an underrated team and great at home and will have the “nobody believes in us” edge, but the Bears might be the 2nd best team in the whole NFC.
Bears 23 Rams 20
AFC Divisional
#3 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-5) at #2 Houston Texans (12-4)
The Steelers could be banged up, as usual, by this point in the season and the Texans are too complete for them to overcome, especially in Houston.
Texans 20 Steelers 16
#5 Tennessee Titans at #1 New England Patriots (13-3)
The journey ends in New England for the young Titans. Maybe in 2013 they’ll have a better shot at winning the Super Bowl. They’re young and built the right way though. 7 of the 11 starters on their talented defense have been drafted since 2009, as have Kenny Britt, Jared Cook, Jake Locker, and Kendall Wright, while Chris Johnson was a 2008 draft pick.
Patriots 34 Titans 24
NFC Divisional
#5 Chicago Bears (13-4) at #1 Green Bay Packers (13-3)
This is frustrating. I think there are the two best teams in the NFC and either would beat New Orleans or Philadelphia on a neutral surface, but, while they may have a chance, I don’t see the Bears pulling off the upset against Green Bay, who has been the best team in the league over the last 3 seasons.
Packers 24 Bears 20
#3 New Orleans Saints (12-5) at #2 Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
Either of these teams would lose to the Bears, for what it’s worth. As much as I don’t trust Michael Vick in the playoffs, I don’t trust the Saints on the road in the playoffs even more (Drew Brees has never won a road playoff game). The Eagles win a close one in the cold in Philadelphia.
Eagles 31 Saints 27
AFC Championship
#2 Houston Texans (13-4) at #1 New England Patriots (14-3)
I want to put the Patriots through to the Super Bowl, but I don’t want to go completely chalk here and a Super Bowl runner up hasn’t won the Super Bowl since Super Bowl XII or even made the Super Bowl since XXVIII and the Texans definitely have the talent to pull off the upset here in New England. Cue the Tom Brady is overrated debates, which, for the record, are ridiculous. You know you live in a “what have you done for me lately” world when a quarterback who started his career by winning 3 Super Bowls in 4 seasons and winning 10 straight playoff games could ever be considered a “choker.”
Texans 27 Patriots 24
NFC Championship
#2 Philadelphia Eagles (13-4) at #1 Green Bay Packers (14-3)
I don’t trust Michael Vick to lead an otherwise incredibly talented Eagles squad into Lambeau and beat Aaron Rodgers and company. Just like last year, it’s going to take a special set of circumstances for the Packers to lose.
Packers 31 Eagles 20
Super Bowl XLII
#2 Houston Texans (14-4) vs. #1 Green Bay Packers (15-3)
The Texans will definitely have a shot and deserve to be here, but the NFC is the much superior conference and the Packers are the best team in the NFL and have been over the last 3 seasons. Aaron Rodgers joins Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger with a pair of rings.
Packers 27 Texans 20
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