Month: August 2012

Cowboys expect to be without Miles Austin for rest of preseason

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

Miles Austin, who has yet to play in a preseason game this year, is expected to miss the rest of the preseason with hamstring problems, according to the Cowboys’ official website. Hamstring problems tend to linger and Austin missed 6 games with hamstring problems last year and was limited by them in several others, leading to essentially a lost season for the talented wideout as he caught just 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s no sure thing for week 1.

With Austin battling these hamstring problems and Jason Witten out indefinitely after rupturing his spleen, the Cowboys’ lack of depth in the receiving corps could be exposed. Backup tight end John Phillips, who would start in the absence of Witten has caught just 22 passes in his career, while the multitude of guys competing for positioning on the Cowboys depth chart behind the starters have combined for just 25 career catches, all of which were by Kevin Ogletree. The 2009 undrafted free agent, who struggled when counted on to start last season, is sadly the veteran of the group.

While all of these injuries are not good for the Cowboys’ offense as a whole, they probably will be good for Dez Bryant. Bryant, who is having a strong offseason on the field, could be due for a huge season in his 3rd year in the league, typically a breakout year for receivers. He’s the clear #1 option in one of the best passing attacks in the league. After catching 63 passes for 928 yards and 9 touchdowns last season, Bryant could have over 70 catches for 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns this year, if he stays healthy.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Seahawks expected to trade or cut Tarvaris Jackson soon

stevenlourie News, Seahawks

Further proving that Matt Flynn will be the week 1 starter for the Seahawks, multiple reports have said that the Seahawks are looking to trade Tarvaris Jackson and will cut him if they can’t. These reports include ones from NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora and ESPN’s John Clayton. Clayton believes he will be traded as soon as possible as that he will not play another snap for the Seahawks this preseason regardless, as the Seahawks don’t want their potential trade asset to get hurt. La Canfora, meanwhile, reveals that Jackson would be willing to take a pay cut in a trade, which would almost definitely be a requirement as his 4 million dollar salary is way too much for a pure backup.

Pro Football Talk also is reporting that Jackson, the incumbent starting quarterback, was never a serious contender for the starting job, which makes sense. The Seahawks were clearly less than thrilled with Jackson, who led them to a 7-9 record despite being supported by one of the better defenses in the league (7th at 19.7 points per game allowed). That’s why they gave Matt Flynn 10 million guaranteed as a free agent acquisition and used a 3rd round pick on Russell Wilson. That’s not something you do if you like your incumbent starting quarterback.

Jackson completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 6.9 YPA and 14 touchdowns to 13 interceptions last year, actually up from his career averages. In his career, the former 2nd round pick has completed just 59.4% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 38 touchdowns to 35 interceptions. He’d be a solid backup, but you’re in trouble if he’s your starter for an extended period of time.

One logical destination, Arizona, has been ruled out by beat writer Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic. The most logical remaining destination would seem to be Green Bay, who runs a similar west coast style offense to the Seahawks. They are in the market for a veteran backup after Graham Harrell, who has never attempted a regular season pass, struggled in an extended tryout this week, completing just 12 of 24 for 100 yards and 2 interceptions against the Browns 2nd and 3rd string defenders. Jackson might be worth a late round pick to them, but they’re also known to be interested in the Browns’ Colt McCoy, who is also available for trade. If the Seahawks can’t trade Jackson, they’ll just cut him, which is a strong possibility.

The Packers are the former home of Matt Flynn, once their primary backup and now the Seahawks’ expected starting quarterback. They have not officially named a starting quarterback, but Flynn has gotten the start in each of their 1st two preseason games and his contract, 3 years, 19.5 million with 10 million guaranteed, has said starter all along. Wilson, meanwhile, will be the primary backup. The 3rd round pick rookie has impressed this preseason, completing 22 of 33 for 279 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and a score on 8 carries. His strong play has allowed the Seahawks to move on from Jackson and he’ll put pressure on Flynn if he struggles in his first year as a starter.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Chiefs’ Tamba Hali suspended for 1 game

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

The Chiefs have one of the best pass rushers in the league, Tamba Hali, but he’s the only good pass rusher they’ve had for the past few years. Hali turned in another strong season in 2011, ranking 4th on ProFootballFocus among rush linebackers and producing 12 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures on 459 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 13.7%. However, the Chiefs only had 29 sacks.

In 2010, he had 19 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 68 quarterback pressures on 583 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.9%. The Chiefs did manage 46 sacks, including playoffs, but nickel rusher Wallace Gilberry with 7 was the only other player on the team with more than 3. In 2009, he had 9 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 449 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 12.9%, but only Gilberry with 6 had more than 2 and the Chiefs managed 26 as a team.

They have an emerging pass rusher in Justin Houston opposite him. He played every snap except one from week 11 on and had most of his production in those 7 games, with 6 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures on 151 pass rush snaps, a rate of 12.6%. It’s no coincidence that the Chiefs had 20 of their 29 sacks in those 7 games.

However, the bad news for the Chiefs is that they’ll have to play their week 1 game without Tamba Hali, after he was suspended for a surprisingly somehow previously unreported marijuana arrest. This is will really hurt their pass rush and is a huge blow to their defense. It really hurts their chances of pulling off an upset victory at home against a talented Falcons team that does struggle on the road.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Dolphins name Ryan Tannehill starting quarterback

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Though it looked like a long shot at the beginning of the preseason, the Dolphins have named Ryan Tannehill, the 8th overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, their starting quarterback. Tannehill entered the preseason as the 3rd string quarterback behind Matt Moore and David Garrard and looked like a long shot for the starting job. Best case scenario for Tannehill looked like that he would win the primary backup job and the loser of the Moore/Garrard battle would be cut, leaving Tannehill first in line should the starter struggle, which would have meant Tannehill could possibly start at some point this season.

However, Garrard hurt his knee and required surgery, which forced him out of the preseason and essentially eliminated him from the running. Meanwhile, new favorite Matt Moore really stunk up the joint this preseason, completing 12 of 27 for 136 yards and an interception. Tannehill, meanwhile, wasn’t much better, completing 25 for 44 for 267 yards and a touchdown, though you could argue that Moore (7 for 12 for 79 yards and an interception) outplayed Tannehill (11 for 23 for 100 yards) in their respective starts. Still, the Dolphins appear to want the future to be now and have named Tannehill the starter. Tannehill will be one of four rookie starting quarterbacks week 1, a record for any week.

It’s definitely not an encouraging thing for Dolphins fans. Tannehill essentially won the job by default and did nothing in his only action against a 1st team defense to dispel the notion that he was a project who would not be ready to contribute in a positive manner year 1, after just 19 collegiate starts. And Tannehill didn’t just struggle, he struggled against Carolina, who had the worst passing defense in the league last year (8.4 YPA).

The Dolphins figure to really struggle offensively this year with a raw project quarterback throwing to one of the thinnest receiving corps in the league. They’ve upgraded the offensive line and run the ball well, though Reggie Bush is always an injury waiting to happen, but they should be one of the worst offensive teams in the league this year. Their defense will win them in some games (6th in the league last year, allowing 19.6 per game), but the 2012 Dolphins could look eerily like the 2011 Jaguars, who finished 5-11.

Tannehill probably won’t be quite as bad as Blaine Gabbert as a rookie, but you can do a lot better than him for a QB2 in fantasy leagues. As for Moore and Garrard, it’s highly unlikely that both make the roster now and Garrard seems like the obvious odd man out after missing all of the preseason and most of Training Camp. After missing all of last season with a back injury, the 34 year old Garrard’s future seems very murky.

Moore, meanwhile, will likely remain as the veteran backup. It’ll be interesting to see if the Dolphins will bench Tannehill for Moore if he struggles or if they’ll let Tannehill take his lumps and try to learn through adversity. You can argue that Moore would have been the better option, even after a rough preseason, because of how surprisingly well he played last season. Moore completed 60.5% of his passes for an average of 7.2 YPA and 19 touchdowns to 9 interceptions, while leading a mediocre offensive supporting cast to 1.74 points per drive in 12 starts, which would have ranked tied for 17th in the league last season had it been over a whole season.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Titans name Jake Locker starting quarterback

stevenlourie News, Titans

The Tennessee Titans have named Jake Locker their starting quarterback, heading into their 3rd preseason game, when teams typically have their depth charts finalized. Though this seemed like the likely outcome a week ago, the move actually comes as a bit of a surprise after Locker’s last preseason game, as he went just 4 of 11 for 21 yards and an interception in his 1st preseason start. For reference, Matt Hasselbeck, the other candidate, went 5 of 9 for 45 yards, though with 2 interceptions, in his start.

Locker 8th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, saw limited action last season, showing off his arm by averaging 8.2 YPA and throwing 4 touchdowns to no interceptions. He also showed off his wheels by rushing for 56 yards and another score on 8 carries. However, Locker also completed just 51.5% of his passes and has accuracy issues dating back to his days at the University of Washington, where he completed just 53.9% of his passes and maxed out at 58.2% in 2009. Locker has done nothing to ease those concerns by completing just 11 of 24 (45.8%) this Preseason.

Locker has plenty of talent around him and the Titans are strong on both sides of the field. They have 3 good wide receivers, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and the rookie Kendall Wright, as well as a great pass catching tight end in Jared Cook. They have one of the best pass blocking offensive lines in the league and should get a bounce back year from Chris Johnson. Defensively, they allowed the 8th fewest points per game last year, 19.8, and they should be able to make up for the loss of Cortland Finnegan in free agency with an improved pass rush, strong cornerback depth, and overall their youth coming of age (6 of their 11 defensive starters last year were in their 3rd season or younger, including a whopping 4 rookies).

However, if Locker has the growing pains associated with a young, raw quarterback, which is definitely a possibility, the team will struggle to live up to the talent of their supporting cast. Locker will also be thrown out to the wolves as the Titans face a brutal early season schedule (vs. New England, @ San Diego, vs. Detroit, @ Houston, @ Minnesota, vs. Pittsburgh, @ Buffalo). It’s for this reason that I argued that Hasselbeck would have been the better choice. He is a reliable veteran who game managed this team to 9 wins last season and, had he been the starter, they would have been a much safer bet to make the playoffs. As a team, they obviously have more upside with Locker, but the downside is there as well. They could go anywhere from 6-10 to 11-5.

For what it’s worth, the Titans were better offensively with Locker on the field than Hasselbeck last season. Hasselbeck led the Titans to 264 points (not counting XPs or 2 PT conversions) on 162 drives (not counting end of half kneel downs/run out the clocks), good for 1.63 points per drive, while Locker led them to 33 points on 18 drives, 1.83 points per drive. It’s definitely worth noting that Locker did his work in very limited action and provides a small sample size.

In fantasy leagues, Locker has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker. Hasselbeck would be one of the league’s most expensive backups at 5.5 million this season, but the Titans have shown no desire to cut him and their trade options for him would be very limited as he’s making a starting salary and teams aren’t going to want to trade for a starting quarterback this close to the start of the season.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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John Skelton to start and play into 3rd quarter this week for Cardinals

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

Heading into their 4th preseason game, the Cardinals still have not announced a starting quarterback. However, they have announced that John Skelton will start and play into the 3rd quarter this week. The Cardinals played in the Hall of Fame game to start the Preseason so they have 5 Preseason games instead of 4, so this 4th preseason game will essentially be used like their 3rd preseason game.

Typically, the 3rd preseason game is your dress rehearsal for the regular season. Teams have typically decided all of their starters by this point and will play them into the 2nd half. Though the Cardinals have not officially named Skelton the starter, he will essentially be doing everything a starting quarterback normally would this week and, barring a complete meltdown during the game, he should be their week 1 starter.

Skelton hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with his play this Preseason, completing 10 of 15 for 90 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, but he’s basically won the job by default over Kolb, who has continued to make the Cardinals look foolish with his play this season. Kolb went 3-6 as a starter last season, 2-6 in games where he led the team in quarterback snaps, after the Cardinals gave up a 2nd round pick and a starting cornerback for him and gave him a large contract last offseason. This offseason, they kept him and paid him his 7 million dollar bonus, rather than cutting him, and Kolb responded by going 5 of 15 for 47 yards and a pick this Preseason. Now it looks like he will become the league’s most expensive backup quarterback.

Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive). Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton did rush for 128 yards as opposed to 65 for Kolb and took just 23 sacks as opposed to 30 for Kolb.

Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. All that being said, neither of them played very well at all and Skelton definitely outplayed him this offseason and this preseason. Either way the Cardinals figure to struggle mightily in 2012. Kolb’s 1.52 points per drive was equal to Washington’s last season and they ranked 22nd, while Skelton’s 1.29 was between Denver’s (1.38) and Indianapolis’ (1.24). They ranked 27th and 28th respectively last season.

For fantasy purposes, you can do a lot better than Skelton as a QB2. In 11 career starts, he’s thrown for 2248 yards, 10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, while rushing for 153 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3270 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 223 rushing yards. He was pulled in two of those games and has thrown for 2057 yards, 9 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, while rushing for 144 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3657 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while rushing for 256 yards. He’s got a good receiving corps, but those mediocre numbers are what you can expect if he plays all 16 games. Plus, there’s no guarantee he won’t be benched midseason or anything like that.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Seattle Seahawks trade MLB Barrett Ruud to New Orleans Saints

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Offseason Moves 2012, Saints, Seahawks

Trade for Saints: The Saints obviously felt they needed added depth at linebacker. David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton have suffered knee and ankle injuries respectively and their statuses for week 1 are up in the air, while Chris Chamberlain tore his ACL and will be put on IR. However, Ruud, once one of the better linebackers in the league, has had his career decimated by injuries and has been one of the worst linebackers in the league over the past 2 seasons.

In 2010, he was ProFootballFocus’ 49th ranked middle linebacker out of 50, starting 16 games for the Buccaneers, and in 2011, he was their 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 51 and was benched midseason for Colin McCarthy, after starting the first 8 games of the season. This offseason, he signed in Seattle for a minimum contract and lost his starting job very early in the offseason to a mere 2nd round rookie, Bobby Wagner. He comes very cheap for the Saints, an undisclosed draft pick and a veteran’s minimum salary, but he won’t provide anything positive for this team. The fact that they had to give up anything at all for him is ridiculous.

Grade: C

Trade for Seahawks: Ruud wasn’t much use to the Seahawks because he couldn’t give carve out even a situational role behind a rookie. I’m surprised they were able to get anything for him.

Grade: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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August 20th Fantasy Football Stock Report

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Fantasy Football Stock Updates

RB Willis McGahee UP

McGahee’s top backup, Ronnie Hillman, has been dealing with hamstring problems all Preseason. Those things can linger, so it becomes less likely that Hillman overtakes McGahee, especially since Head Coach John Fox doesn’t like rookies. McGahee is still heading into his age 31 season, but he’s reportedly the clear lead back and he should get a bunch of carries and a bunch of goal line carries on an explosive offense.

RB Ronnie Hillman DOWN

Hillman is dealing with hamstring problems and on top of that, news has come out that McGahee is the clear lead back, which makes some sense since John Fox hates rookies. Hillman does have some upside, because he’s the type of pass catching back that Peyton Manning will want on the field with him and because McGahee is heading into his age 31 season, but he’s only a late round flier. He might even start the season below Knowshon Moreno on the depth chart.

RB Jahvid Best DOWN

Best is expected to start the season on the PUP, which would cause him to miss 6 games. There’s a chance he doesn’t get cleared to play at all this season and, even if he does, it will only be as a change of pace back behind Kevin Smith and Mikel Leshoure to keep him fresh and he’ll probably just get hurt again. Don’t draft him.

RB Mikel Leshoure DOWN

Leshoure is still not 100% from his Achilles injury. He’s missed most of Training Camp and has yet to play a Preseason game. He’ll miss the first 2 games of the season anyway with suspension, but it’s definitely possible he misses a couple more with injury. Meanwhile, Kevin Smith has had a great offseason and will get the week 1 start in the absence of Best and Leshoure. He’s the Detroit back to own because he could end up being the lead back all season.

RB Kevin Smith UP

With Best likely out for at least 6 games and Leshoure out for at least 2 games, Smith will get at least two starts this season, but it seems like he’ll continue to be the lead back even once Leshoure returns as Leshoure is still struggling to return from his torn Achilles. There’s definitely upside with Smith as a RB3, but remember, he has a pretty checkered injury history too.

WR Santonio Holmes DOWN

Holmes has missed a lot of Training Camp and the Preseason with various injuries. The Jets’ passing offense isn’t going to be very good anyway so I’d let him be someone else’s problem.

WR Stephen Hill UP

If I were to own a Jets wide receiver, it probably would be Hill. Holmes can’t seem to stay healthy and while Hill is incredibly raw, he’ll be targeted around the goal line an awful lot at 6-5, just like Plaxico Burress last season, who caught 8 touchdowns. Burress caught 45 passes for 612 yards and 8 touchdowns last year. Hill, even as a rookie, should be able to get those numbers, with upside if Holmes misses any time with injury and/or Tebow becomes the starter. If Tebow becomes the starter, Hill could very well be his top target because, with Tebow, it doesn’t matter so much if you aren’t a great route runner, as long as you are athletic (see Thomas, Demaryius).

TE Dustin Keller UP

Dustin Keller had a breakout season last year, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, leading a miserable receiving corps. I thought his production would go down this season because the receiving corps around him would be improved, but it doesn’t look like it. Keller should once again lead this miserable bunch in receiving. If you miss out on one of the top tight ends, Keller is a nice fall back option in the mid rounds.

TE Jason Witten DOWN

Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Unfortunately, the timetable for his return is very murky with this type of injury. He’ll have to remain idle for about a week and hope it heals and that he’ll avoid surgery. Reports says that’s the most likely scenario, but even if that scenario, he’d be questionable for week 1. Witten is incredibly tough and hasn’t missed a game since 2003, but I’m still cutting his original projected numbers to estimate that he plays 14 games instead of 16.

RB Evan Royster UP

If you’re going to own one of Washington’s running backs, Royster is the one. Tim Hightower is still not 100% back from his torn ACL and might not be ready for the opener, while Roy Helu is also hurt and viewed as only a change of pace back. Just note that Mike Shanahan is incredibly frustrating for fantasy owners. Hightower could easily take his job once he returns and he may decide to change his mind on Helu and make him the starter.

RB Tim Hightower UP

Hightower might not be ready week 1, but he could take Evan Royster’s job at any time once he’s healthy, so he’s worth a late round flier if you don’t mind dealing with the fact that Shanahan could give the starting job back to Royster or even Helu, once he’s given it to Hightower, without warning.

RB Roy Helu DOWN

Helu is hurt and the coaching staff views him as just a change of pace back, for right now at least. He’s only worth a late round flier in deep leagues and only if you don’t mind dealing with the fact that Shanahan could give the starting job back to Royster or Hightower, once he’s given it to Helu, without warning.

WR Donnie Avery DOWN

Just when it looked like he was fully healthy and ready to challenge for the starting job, he suffers a hip injury, which all but clinches the job for Austin Collie. He’ll be only the #3 wide receiver for the Colts on a team that figures to use lots of two-tight end sets and he’s also very injury prone. Don’t bother.

WR Reggie Wayne DOWN

Moving Wayne down a little bit, upon closer examination of the Colts’ receiving corps. You can read about it here.

WR Austin Collie UP

Collie is the Colts’ receiver you want to own, even after his latest potential minor concussion. Read about it here.

TE Coby Fleener DOWN

Fleener hasn’t quite been as big of a part of the offense in the Preseason as anticipated. Wide receiver Austin Collie has been his favorite target.

WR Greg Little UP

In essentially Cleveland’s 3rd preseason game (they used their 2nd preseason game as their regular season tune up instead of their 3rd because they play the Eagles in week 3 of the Preseason and week 1 of the Regular season), Little looked great and led the way with 4 catches for 45 yards. He was actually 17th in the league in targets last year, but only managed 61 catches for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns for two reasons, his quarterback play and his own play.

Browns quarterbacks completed just 56.1% of their passes for 5.8 YPA and 16 touchdowns to 13 interceptions. Brandon Weeden, at the very least, should be an upgrade. However, Little also dropped 14 passes last season. If he had caught half of those, he would have had something like 68 catches for 800 receiving yards. He was incredibly raw as a rookie, after missing his final year at North Carolina with suspension, but he’s gotten himself into better shape this offseason and seems poised for a breakout season. He’s still, by far, his team’s best receiver and could approach 1000 yards if Weeden is better than I think and is even a league average starter.

RB Isaac Redman DOWN

Rashard Mendenhall has been activated off the PUP, a very surprising move since even GM Kevin Tolbert said he’d likely begin the season on the PUP and miss at least 6 games. He won’t be ready for the opener, but he’ll likely only miss around 3 games, rather than 6+. Redman will be the lead back for 3 games and get about 15 carries per game and then get about 10, an even split with Mendenhall, for the other 13. He is the more talented back in Pittsburgh’s backfield and Mendenhall is in a contract year and unlikely to remain with the team after the season, but Redman’s window of opportunity to show himself as a true lead back has at least been cut in half.

RB Rashard Mendenhall UP

Mendenhall is officially on the fantasy radar after being activated off the PUP. He’ll still miss the first few games of the season and probably split carries for the rest of the season, but he’s worth a late round flier, especially as a handcuff to the still unproven Isaac Redman.

RB Jonathan Dwyer DOWN

With Mendenhall coming back, Dwyer becomes fantasy irrelevant as their #3 back.

WR Mike Williams UP

Mike Williams is having a strong Training Camp and is holding off Preston Parker for the starting job. Not only that, he’s been Josh Freeman’s favorite target in the Preseason, as he’s struggled to develop chemistry with new wide receiver Vincent Jackson. If Williams is back in shape this season, he could definitely lead the team in receiving because he has the familiarity advantage with Freeman. Remember, he caught 65 passes for 954 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2010.

WR Preston Parker DOWN

Parker has lost the starting job and will remain only the slot receiver. He’s off the fantasy radar, even in PPR leagues.

WR Kenny Britt UP

Adam Schefter reports that Britt will likely receive only a short suspension, somewhere between 1-3 games. He’s also made an incredible recovery from 2 knee surgeries and is impressing in work on the side and could be activated from the PUP any day now. I originally projected him to play 12 games, now I’m changing his projections to 14 games. Remember, in his last 14 full games, he’s caught 56 passes for 1146 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s got incredible upside in the mid rounds still.

WR Nate Washington DOWN

With Britt likely misses 2 games instead of 4, like I originally predicted, Washington obviously gets a stock down. He caught 74 passes for 1023 yards and 7 touchdowns last year out of necessity, but now Britt is coming back from injury and they’ve brought in Kendall Wright in the first round. He caught just 42 passes for 687 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2010. His stats should be closer to that in 2012.

WR Kendall Wright DOWN

Wright was originally on the fantasy bubble, but he’s off the radar now since he’ll only get a couple of starts and spend most of his time as a rookie receiver operating primarily out of the slot on an average passing offense. Rookie receivers never do much anyway.

WR Denarius Moore DOWN

Moore has missed all of the Preseason and most of Training Camp with a hamstring problem, which he’s been dealing with for 2 months. Hamstring injuries tend to linger and Moore missed time with injuries last season too so he probably won’t play all 16 games this season. I’ve cut his projected stats to account for a decrease in projected games played from 16 to 14 and lowered his YPC because hamstring injuries can sap explosion.

WR Vincent Brown DOWN

Vincent Brown, who is the Chargers best wide receiver, broke his ankle in a Preseason game and could miss the entire season. Take this former sleeper off your board completely.

WR Robert Meachem UP

Meachem obviously gets a stock up with Brown going down as Brown was a major threat to his job. The fact that Meachem has struggled in Training Camp and has never caught more than 45 passes in a season, despite having Drew Brees as his quarterback, remains, but he should be a starter for the entire season on one of the more explosive offenses in the league. He’ll probably be utilized more in San Diego than New Orleans (if the utilization is in the best interest of the Chargers’ offense is yet to be determined), so he could have a career year because of the pure volume of targets coming his way.

WR Malcom Floyd UP

Floyd also moves up with Brown going down. Floyd’s starting job was never in danger, but with Brown out, Floyd becomes the obvious candidate to be San Diego’s #1 wide receiver. He’s not as physically talented as Meachem, but he’s got better chemistry with the quarterback. The biggest issue is that he’s missed 9 games over the past 2 seasons, he’s heading into his age 31 season, and he’s caught 3 or fewer passes in 14 of his last 23 games over the past 2 seasons. He wasn’t able to take advantage of the chance to be a #1 receiver in 2010 either.

TE Antonio Gates UP

Brown is probably done for the year. I’ve gone into detail on Floyd’s and Meachem’s short comings. Eddie Royal, the slot receiver, is also injury prone and hasn’t done anything of note since 2008. Gates was their #1 receiver in 2010, the last time the Chargers were without Vincent Jackson, catching 50 passes for 782 yards and 10 touchdowns in 10 games before getting hurt, on pace for a ridiculous 80 catches for 1251 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s having a great offseason and is finally healthy and while he’s 32 and might miss a couple games with injuries, he’ll probably be the Chargers’ leading per game receiver when healthy.

TE Rob Housler UP

You can read more about Housler here.

WR Miles Austin DOWN

Miles Austin has missed all of the Preseason with hamstring problems. He should be fine for week 1, but hamstring problems tend to linger and he missed 6 games and caught just 43 passes for 579 yards and 7 touchdowns last year because of hamstring problems. He’s got upside, but let him be someone else’s problem.

WR Dez Bryant UP

Austin is battling hamstring problems still and Witten is out indefinitely with a lacerated spleen. Bryant, who is having a strong offseason on the field, could be due for a huge season in his 3rd year in the league, typically a breakout year for receivers. He’s the clear #1 option in one of the best passing attacks in the league.

QB Jake Locker UP

The Titans have named Jake Locker starting quarterback. Locker averaged 8.2 YPA and had 4 touchdowns to 0 interceptions last season, but he also only completed 51.5% of his passes. He has accuracy issues dating back to his days at Washington and if his last Preseason start is any indication (4-11 for 21 yards), those aren’t past him. He has some upside as a QB2 because of his talent, his receiving corps, his pass heavy offense, and his rushing ability, but I wouldn’t be too excited about him until I see him be more accurate. Also, if he struggles, the Titans have the option of going to a proven veteran backup, Matt Hasselbeck, and benching Locker.

QB Ryan Tannehill UP

The Dolphins have named Ryan Tannehill starting quarterback. You can do a lot better than him for a QB2 though. He has no receiving corps and he’s incredibly raw. The only reason he’s starting is because veteran David Garrard got hurt and other veteran Matt Moore stunk up the joint this Preseason. They’re starting him out of necessity, not because he’s ready. In his only Preseason start, he was 11 of 23 for 100 yards.

QB John Skelton UP

The Cardinals have not named a starting quarterback yet, but Skelton will start and play into the 3rd quarter this week, which means he’ll get all the 1st team reps in the most important Preseason game of the year. Barring a meltdown, he’ll be the starting quarterback. In 11 career starts, he’s thrown for 2248 yards, 10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, while rushing for 153 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3270 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 223 rushing yards.

He was pulled in two of those games and has thrown for 2057 yards, 9 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, while rushing for 144 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3657 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while rushing for 256 yards. He’s got a good receiving corps, but there’s no guarantee he won’t be benched midseason or anything like that. You can do better in a QB2.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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New York Jets Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Muhammad Wilkerson

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Jets

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New York Jets, that player is defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson.

Under Head Coach Rex Ryan, the Jets love using multiple different types of fronts. They use everything from a 4-3 to a 3-4 to a 46, something they’ll be using more of this season. Because of this, they rotate defensive lineman often. However, even as a rookie, Muhammad Wilkerson, the Jets’ 1st round pick in 2011, saw significant snaps as a defensive lineman, playing 608 snaps, evenly against the run and as a pass rusher, 2nd on the team among defensive linemen.

Wilkerson fared pretty well, especially against the run. He ranked 5th at his position with a 9.7% run stop rate, with 28 run stops on 290 run stopping snaps, a 9.7% rate. As a pass rusher, he wasn’t quite as good. He had 3 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 8 quarterback pressures on 300 pass rush snaps, good for a pedestrian 5.0% rate. His pass rush productivity rate was 4.2, which is also pretty pedestrian, as it ranked in the middle of the pack at his position.

However, Wilkerson is very talented and heading into his 2nd year in the league, he figures to get a larger workload. He’s incredibly versatile and will fit into any one of their fronts and should lead their defensive line in snaps played this season. Already great as a run stuffer, Wilkerson, a developmental prospect coming out of Temple, improved as a pass rusher as last season went on as he had 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback pressures in his final 8 games, on 144 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 6.9%. He’s definitely got the potential for a breakout season in 2012.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Miami Dolphins Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Jared Odrick

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Dolphins

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Miami Dolphins, that player is defensive end Jared Odrick.

Jared Odrick, a collegiate defensive tackle, was drafted by the Miami Dolphins in the 1st round in 2010 and moved to defensive end in their 3-4 defense, better known as the five-technique position. Odrick’s rookie year basically ended before it started as he broke his leg in the opener after only 22 snaps and was put on IR. In 2011, however, Odrick came back healthy and started to show some of why he was such a highly drafted player as a rotational five-technique, mostly focusing on rushing the passer.

On a crowded defensive line, Odrick played 597 snaps, 393 of which were pass rush snaps, and he had 5 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures, good for a rate of 6.1%. His 5.2 pass rush productivity rate ranked 13th at his position. He struggled against the run a little bit, but he didn’t really have to play the run all that much. Heading into his 3rd season, Miami’s defensive line is a lot less crowded as they switch to a 4-3.

Kendall Langford, Igor Olshansky, and Phillip Merling are gone, while former rush linebacker Koa Misi will remain at linebacker. Rather than playing his collegiate position of defensive tackle, the Dolphins will be using him as a hybrid, playing him outside on running downs in the base package and inside on passing downs in sub packages.

That would seem to play best into his strength against he’s going to be good against the run as a defensive end at 6-5 300 and good as a pass rusher at defensive tackle. Also, on a thinner defensive line, Odrick figures to have plenty of opportunity for playing time. He’s also another year removed from his broken leg, which may have still affected him last season. All of that could equal a breakout season for the talented former 1st round pick.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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