Month: August 2012

New England Patriots Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Stevan Ridley

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Patriots

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the New England Patriots, that player is running back Stevan Ridley.

Not since Corey Dillon was in his prime, 2004, have the Patriots had an explosive lead back. In 2004, Dillon rushed for 1635 yards and 12 touchdowns on 345 carries. However, after that they had a washed up Dillon, who rushed for just 1545 yards over the next 2 seasons on 408 carries. He did have 25 touchdowns over those two seasons, but mostly just because he was around the goal line so much.

After that, 2006 1st round pick Laurence Maroney ranged from everything from serviceable to god awful in 2 seasons as a starter, 2007 and 2009. Maroney was out of the league after 5 seasons, 4 in New England, and one in Denver, where he averaged 2.1 yards per carry. He rushed for just 2504 yards and 21 touchdowns on 618 carries in his career and was oft injured. He missed most of the 2008 season, forcing a 31 year old Sammy Morris to carry the load, as he rushed for 727 yards and 7 touchdowns on 156 carries.

In 2010 and 2011, BenJarvus Green-Ellis was the lead back. He was the perfect running back for the Patriots because he never fumbled and could run through holes. With how good the passing game and offensive line are, all the Patriots needed him to do was not fumble (0 fumbles in 557 career carries) and run through holes opened up by the offensive line against spread out fronts who are fearing the pass. However, he was not explosive at all and didn’t do anything after contact. In his career, including playoffs, BJGE had 1305 yards after contact on 557 carries, just 2.3 yards per carry after contact.

It’s not entirely coincidental that the last time the Patriots won the Super Bowl was 2004, the last time they had an explosive lead back. Enter Stevan Ridley, a 2011 3rd round pick. Ridley averaged 5.1 yards per carry including playoffs last season, with 3.1 yards after contact, rushing for 462 yards on 91 carries total. He was good enough in limited action for the Patriots to let BJGE go and make him the lead back and he’s been impressing in Training Camp.

He doesn’t pass catch well, as he had just 17 catches in his collegiate career and 5 last year. For this reason, he won’t see a lot of obvious passing downs as Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead will handle those duties. He did fumble last season, something BJGE has never done, fumbling twice and losing one, but he only fumbled 3 times in college so he’s pretty sure handed when it comes to protecting the football.

If he can avoid fumbles this season, he should be able to get the majority of BJGE’s vacated workload (410 carries over the last 2 seasons). The Patriots’ passing game and offensive line are both good enough to make any back look serviceable. If Ridley lives up to his potential, imagine how good he can be in the Patriots’ offense.

By the way, if you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

August 13th Fantasy Football Update

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Fantasy Football Stock Updates

WR Brian Quick DOWN

Brian Quick has been having a less than stellar Training Camp and worked with the 2nd team exclusively in their 1st preseason game. As a rookie, he would have had to earn his way into the starting lineup, which he’s really struggling to do, even in a weak receiving corps. It’s still unclear which, if any, of St. Louis’ wideouts will have fantasy value. Quick is a late round flier, at best.

WR Steve Smith UP

If any of St. Louis’ wideouts are going to be fantasy relevant this season, it’s probably going to be Smith. Smith seems to be healthy off of essentially 2 lost years with injuries. He’s working with the 1st team, having a strong camp, and was Bradford’s favorite weapon in their 1st preseason game. He probably will never be his 100 catch self again, like he was in 2009 before injury, but he’s got the most value of any of St. Louis’ receivers. He’s worth a late round pick.

RB Ryan Mathews DOWN

Mathews has broken his collarbone and will miss 4-6 weeks, which puts his week 1 and week 2 status in doubt, dampening the outlook for a player who looked poised to have a breakout year. He still remains a 1st round pick in fantasy circles, though, and he may be undervalued, going now in the late 2nd on average. Before the injury, he was going off the board 7th overall.

Yes, he will miss a game or two, but you had to figure he would when making projections for him. When in the lineup, he could easily lead all backs in fantasy points per game as the Chargers’ “everything” back. If he can play 14 or 15 games and not sustain another injury, he could still finish the year as a top-5 back. There’s no guarantees he won’t get hurt again, especially with his history, but collarbone injuries are not lingering injuries. Unfortunately, there’s not a good handcuff for him as Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and LeRon McClain, 3 mediocre backs, will split carries if he misses any time, making all 3 fantasy irrelevant.

RB David Wilson DOWN

David Wilson is getting mixed reviews in camp. On one hand, he looks incredibly explosive as a runner, but he’s also struggling with his blitz pickup and the Giants, known for easing in rookies, won’t trust him in obvious pass downs. He’ll still get a good portion of the early down work behind Ahmad Bradshaw and he remains just an injury to one of the league’s most injury prone backs away from being a legitimate RB2, but I’m moving him down slightly.

WR Santana Moss DOWN

All of the Santana Moss hype may have been a little much. Not only does he not appear to be in the running to be the Redskins’ #1 receiver, he didn’t even start for the Redskins in their 1st preseason game. That honor went to Leonard Hankerson, while Moss operated exclusively out of the slot. You can do better things with a late round pick than taking a 33 year old slot receiver.

WR Leonard Hankerson UP

Hankerson looks like the favorite to start opposite Pierre Garcon in Washington, with Moss working out of the slot. The 2011 3rd round pick was a favorite of mine in the 2011 NFL Draft season and he showed his abilities by catching 8 passes for 106 yards in his only start last year, before getting hurt and missing the rest of the season. There’s always a chance that Pierre Garcon struggles to transition to a new team, as so many receivers do, so Hankerson has plenty of upside late.

RB Cedric Benson UP

The Packers have signed Cedric Benson. He’ll get the opportunity to run behind a great offensive line and he’ll have plenty of room to run with the Packers’ passing game spreading things out. Heading into his age 30 season, he’s got little to no explosion, but he can run through holes and he should get the bulk of the Packers’ early down work as he was signed in response to James Starks’ disappointing Training Camp, preseason, and his recent turf toe injury.

He’s also shown surprisingly durability with 956 touches over the past 3 seasons, 5th in the league over that time period behind only Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, and Steven Jackson. On top of all that, he’ll get the goal line work on one of the league’s most explosive offenses. He’s the Packers’ running back to own.

RB James Starks DOWN

Once seen as a potential breakout candidate going into his 3rd year in the league and his 1st as a lead back, Starks had a miserable Training Camp and first Preseason game and, after sustaining a turf toe injury, the Packers signed Cedric Benson, a similar style back to him. Turf toe injuries tend to linger and this is a guy who has injury issues dating back to his time at the University of Buffalo, which is why he fell to the 6th round in 2010. Even at his age, Benson has more fantasy value this year than Starks.

RB Alex Green DOWN

Benson’s signing doesn’t hurt Green as much as it does Starks, as Green is a different kind of back, a speed, change of pace, passing catching back. However, a more crowded backfield is never a good thing for a back and it looks like Green’s role will be almost purely 3rd down and change of pace unless there are injuries.

WR Randall Cobb UP

Cobb is having a very strong Training Camp and led the team in receiving in their 1st preseason game, so he should win the starting slot receiver job. James Jones had 38 catches for 635 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, but also dropped 6 passes. Cobb could exceed those numbers and would be an injury away from being thrust into the starting lineup of the league’s most explosive offense. He’s definitely worth a late round flier.

WR Julio Jones UP

I don’t like to overreact to preseason games, but Julio Jones is insane. He caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in his 1st preseason game in only one quarter of play. I had him “conservatively” ranked as my #5 wide receiver, but it appears that was even too low for him. Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are not out of reach for him.

WR Roddy White DOWN

Any positive for Jones has to be a negative for White, who is heading into his age 31 season and will be a smaller part of the offense last year. Leading the league in targets last year, White is almost purely a volume receiver at this point in his career and he should see a much smaller volume of targets go his way as long as Julio is playing like this.

RB Trent Richardson DOWN

Poor Browns. They just can’t catch a break. Trent Richardson will have to undergo surgery on his left knee. That surgery is just a scope so it’s as minor as it comes, but this is the 2nd time that knee has been operated on this year, so it’s not what you want to see from the player you just spent the 3rd overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft on.

The Browns expect Richardson to be back for the opener, but that’s not certain and it’s definitely possible he’ll miss a couple games at some point this season with lingering knee pain. The Browns could also scale back his workload early in September. As talented as Richardson is, rookie running backs have had trouble adjusting to a 16-game NFL season in recent years as 1st round pick running backs have averaged just have just averaged 165 carries as rookies since 2007. It’s important to keep fantasy projections for him conservative as a rookie.

RB Montario Hardesty UP

Largely a bust as a 2010 2nd round pick for the first 2 years of his career, Montario Hardesty is reportedly finally healthy and looked it in their first preseason game, starting in the absence of Richardson. Because we need to keep projections for Richardson conservative as a rookie, Hardesty makes for an interesting handcuff and potential late round sleeper.

RB Marshawn Lynch UP

It sounds like Lynch won’t be suspended, at least in 2012, as Roger Goodell wants to wait until the result of his DUI case before assigning any penalty. That likely means that any suspension would take place in 2013, if ever. I still don’t like him this year, as a one year wonder, behind a poor offensive line, after getting a new contract, but I’m bumping him back up to my original projection for him.

RB Robert Turbin DOWN

Moving Turbin back down as his value is tied to Marshawn Lynch’s. He’s still a name to know because Lynch will probably underachieve and/or get hurt, but he’s not really draftable.

WR Hakeem Nicks DOWN

I had Eli Manning’s projected numbers back more in line with his career averages, rather than his crazy numbers from last year, as the Giants seem committed to going back running the more ball more this season. However, my projections for Nicks and Cruz were both too high. In 2009 and 2010, the Giants’ top-2 receivers combined for about 2000 yards and 16 touchdowns per year.

Nicks and Cruz should exceed that slightly, but not by much. Nicks is the safer fantasy option and, like I projected earlier, should lead the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, just like he did in the playoffs last season. Cruz is still a one year wonder whose 18.9 yards per catch will be impossible to sustain.

WR Victor Cruz DOWN

Copy and paste what’s above.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Season of Raiders’ Aaron Curry could be in jeopardy

stevenlourie News, Raiders

This is not what you want to hear. Aaron Curry, who is currently on the active/PUP list, will get a 2nd opinion on his ailing knees as they are not responding to stem cell treatment, according to the Contra Costa Times. They also go to say that he won’t make the roster “unless his knee responds to treatment soon.” Owed a non-guaranteed 3.5 million this season, the Raiders seem to prefer cutting him outright over putting him on IR.

The Raiders have already lost one linebacker, Kamerion Wimbley, this offseason. Another linebacker, Rolando McClain, is facing 6 months in jail, pending an appeal. Curry might not be a great player, but the former 4th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, who was a bust in Seattle, played solid last season and he’s certainly better and more proven than Miles Burris, a 4th round rookie who would start in his absence.

In addition to Wimbley and possibly McClain, the Raiders have also lost #1 cornerback Stanford Routt, while two of their best defensive players, Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour, are both on the wrong side of 30. The allowed 27.1 points per game last season, 29th in the NFL, and could easily be worse this year. They might be the worst defensive team in the league, which will make it really tough for them to win games.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Sam Shields really struggling for Packers in Training Camp

stevenlourie News, Packers

One of the disappointments of Training Camp has been Packers’ cornerback Sam Shields. Shields had a very surprisingly strong rookie season in 2010 as an undrafted rookie free agent, taking over as the nickel back en route to the Super Bowl. However, he regressed in that same role in 2011 and now appears to be regressing even further. He’s been buried on the depth chart as a result of the start that the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called “wretched.” They also added that he looked like “a mess.”

Shields is competing for the starting job opposite Tramon Williams, as Charles Woodson moves to safety in base packages and the slot in sub packages. However, it doesn’t look like he’ll be winning that job. More likely it will be either Davon House, a 2011 4th round pick, or Casey Hayward, a 2012 2nd round pick, though Hayward has to be considered the favorite after Houston dislocated his shoulder, putting his status for the opener in doubt. Jarrett Bush, a career special teamer, is also ahead of Shields on the depth chart right now, but he’s a long shot for the job. Shields, meanwhile, is no longer a lock for the roster at a deep position for the Packers.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dolphins’ John Jerry out of shape, unlikely to make roster

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

John Jerry entered the offseason as the projected started at right guard, with Vernon Carey gone. Jerry, a 2010 3rd round pick, was drafted to be a starter by this point. However, he struggled in offseason practices and soon fell below Artis Hicks, who was a backup in Cleveland last season and heading into his age 34 season. They also signed Eric Steinbach, heading into his age 32 season after missing all of last season with a back injury.

Jerry, obviously, needed a good Training Camp with the pressure on him, but he has not responded, as he has showed up to Training Camp overweight and out of shape at 360 pounds, up from the 328 he was listed at last season. Already a poor fit for their new zone blocking scheme, which is more reliant on speed and athleticism than power, Jerry now appears unlikely to make the final roster behind both Hicks and Steinbach. Right guard figures to be a position of weakness for the Dolphins this season.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Bills could cut Dwan Edwards, Terrence McGee

stevenlourie Bills, News

Every year at final cuts, there are several players who are experienced veterans who get cut, for various reasons. These guys are normally swooped up pretty quickly to play roles on other teams for less money, sometimes much less. Two of these guys for the Bills could easily be Dwan Edwards and Terrence McGee.

McGee restructured his contract earlier this offseason, signing a 2 year, 4 million dollar deal, rather than going into the season making 3.6 million, his original salary, in order to save his roster spot. However, only $300,000 of that contract, the signing bonus, was guaranteed, so his roster spot is not safe. He recently expressed concern over his roster spot security, saying “I’m at the back of the line right now. There are guys way in front of me right now.”

McGee is in a 4 way battle for the nickel cornerback job and, since teams normally only carry 4 or 5 cornerbacks, at least one member of that battle will not make the final roster. 2011 7th round pick Justin Rogers, an inexperienced player, is currently the favorite and will also have an impact on special teams as a return man, so his job is probably safe. Ron Brooks was a 4th round pick just in April so his job is probably safe.

That leaves McGee and Leodis McKelvin fighting for a roster spot. McKelvin’s age, heading into his age 27 season, could be the deciding factor that leads to McGee getting cut, heading into his age 32 season, coming off a torn patellar tendon that cost him most of last season. The oft injured cornerback has missed 22 games in the last 3 seasons, another factor that could decide his fate. He could still be picked up after final cuts and make a roster as a depth cornerback at the veteran’s minimum, should he chose to continue playing.

Edwards, meanwhile, was signed to a 4 year, 18 million dollar deal in the 2010 offseason as the Bills were hoping to convert Edwards, one of the league’s best rotational players in 2009, into a full time every down end in their 3-4. However, Edwards did not live up to expectations and was nothing short of awful last season, grading out 82nd on ProFootballFocus among defensive tackles, in Buffalo’s hybrid 3-4/4-3.

In a full time 4-3 now, Edwards is nothing more than a backup defensive tackle behind Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus and not a very good one. With a cap hit of 4.175 million, he’s far too overpaid and it would make a ton of sense to cut him, unless he restructures. Only heading into his age 31 season, he should be able to find a home for the 2012 season after final cuts at a more reasonable price.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jets believe Aaron Maybin could play larger role in 2012

stevenlourie Jets, News

Aaron Maybin was the 11th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, but he was a complete bust in Buffalo and was cut after 2 years and no sacks. However, he reinvented himself with the Jets as a situational pass rusher last season, with a team leading 6 sacks, to go with 2 quarterback hits, and 16 quarterback pressures on 197 pass rush snaps, a very good 12.2% pass rush rate as a situational player.

The Jets have gotten him to bulk up, after playing last season in the 220s and 230s, in order to be able to play more snaps and get better against the run. However, he struggled in the 240s in Buffalo so the added weight could hurt him. The Jets may find themselves stuck with the same dud from Buffalo and wishing they had allowed Maybin to stay leaner and just focus on getting to the quarterback.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Chargers to use 3-way running back committee in Mathews’ absence

stevenlourie Chargers, News

Those looking to still use a 1st round pick on Ryan Mathews and his immense upside, in spite of his recent broken collarbone, and then use a later pick on a handcuff to use in his absence, will be disappointed to know that Chargers Head Coach Norv Turner has indicated that he will use a 3-way running back committee in Mathews absence, saying “right now, it’d probably be a mix.”

Those three backs will be Ronnie Brown, Curtis Brinkley, and Le’Ron McClain. Brown figures to be the de facto starter, while Brinkley will serve as a change of pace back, and McClain, also a fullback, will handle short yardage duties and maybe 3rd downs. It’s a fantasy disaster area as the 3 backs will make each other irrelevant and it’s not like any of them are that talented.  Brown looks pretty washed up, heading into his age 31 season, after averaging 3.2 YPC last season, while Curtis Brinkley has just 32 career carries. McClain, meanwhile, is just a full back, though he’s an above average runner and pass catcher for his position.

Jackie Battle, meanwhile, figures not to be in the mix as he was signed primarily for his special teams value as a gunner. The Chargers should carry 4 running backs on the 53 man roster heading into the season, but it’s likely that they cut one once Mathews returns, likely Brinkley, who was expected to be on the outside looking in at final cuts before the Mathews injury. Mathews’ injury seems to have given him new life and another opportunity to prove his worth, but he’ll have to outplay the other 2 backs to remain on the roster.

Mathews, meanwhile, remains a 1st round pick in fantasy circles. Yes, he will miss a game or two, but you had to figure he would when making projections for him. When in the lineup, he could easily lead all backs in fantasy points per game as the Chargers’ “everything” back. If he can play 14 or 15 games and not sustain another injury, he could still finish the year as a top-5 back. There’s no guarantees he won’t get hurt again, especially with his history, but collarbone injuries are not lingering injuries.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Ravens’ Torrey Smith already back practicing

stevenlourie News, Ravens

Yesterday, I commented on a report that Torrey Smith would miss most of the preseason with an ankle injury and his week 1 status was in jeopardy. However, it appears that was much ado about nothing as Smith was already back practicing for the Ravens today. My original projection of him as a major fantasy sleeper and a great value at his current ADP in the 7th round still stands.

Torrey Smith was excellent as a rookie, catching 50 balls for 841 yards and 7 touchdowns and he was even better in his last 7 games, catching 27 balls for 416 yards and 3 touchdowns. Over 16 games, that’s 62 catches for 951 yards and 7 touchdowns. Keep in mind he played all of last season with a double sports hernia. Now that he’s a year older and Anquan Boldin is a year older on the wrong side of 30, Smith should continue to improve as a receiver and establish himself as Baltimore’s clear #1 receiver.

We could even see a Mike Wallace/Hines Ward type situation here. As a rookie, Wallace caught 39 passes for 756 yards and 6 touchdowns, while the veteran Ward caught 95 passes for 1167 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, in Wallace’s 2nd season, the tables turned and Wallace caught 60 passes for 1257 yards and 10 touchdowns, while an aging Ward caught 59 passes for 755 yards and 5 touchdowns. There’s definitely upside to be had with the speedy Smith in the mid rounds. This is also good news for Joe Flacco, who is already in danger of losing his top-2 tight ends for week 1, heading into a make or break contract year.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dolphins release Chad Johnson

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Well that was fun while it latest. About 2 months after signing with the Dolphins, the Dolphins have cut Chad Johnson (previously Chad Ochocinco). Johnson was simultaneously competing for a starting job and on the roster bubble, after signing a non-guaranteed contract in June, before getting arrested for domestic abuse after head butting his wife yesterday.

The Dolphins wasted no time in handing him his release papers, cleaning out his locker less than 24 hours after the incident. Brian Hartline and Legedu Naanee look locked in as the starters at wide receiver in Miami, with Davone Bess in the slot. Roberto Wallace, who had a strong performance in the Dolphins’ 1st preseason game, catching 4 passes for 71 yards with the 2nd team, is also a name to watch on what is one of the least talented receiving corps in the league.

When Ochocinco was cut by the Patriots, and after the corresponding reports about why he was cut (his inability and borderline refusal to learn the Patriots’ complex playbook), I said that Ochocinco could easily be done at age 34 and that, while he may get signed, he was unlikely to make a 53 man roster. Getting cut by the team with arguably the worst receiving corps in the game definitely does not help. If he is, in fact, done, Ochocinco would retire with 766 catches for 11059 yards and 67 touchdowns in 12 seasons, 26th all-time in receiving yards.

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]