Month: August 2012

Detroit Lions 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Lions, News

DE Cliff Avril

The Lions franchised Avril this offseason, giving him 10.6 million guaranteed, but failed to reach a long term agreement with him, after he rejected their 3 year, 30 million dollar deal, with 20 million guaranteed. Avril skipped the early part of Training Camp in protest. Avril is an excellent pass rusher, who has managed 21 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 82 quarterback pressures in the last 2 seasons. However, the Lions have seemed weary of committing to him long term and, possessing adequate depth behind him at defensive end, I doubt they’d tag him again in 2013, at the rate of 12.72 million (120% of his 2012 salary, as per league rules), barring a massive season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

S Louis Delmas

When healthy, Louis Delmas is a solid safety and safeties have been franchised 4 times in the last 2 seasons because of how cheap the safety franchise tag is (just 6.2 million in 2012). However, I don’t think he’s quite yet on the level of Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Griffin, all of whom have been franchised in the last 2 seasons. He’ll need to stay healthy and have a career best season in 2012 to be worthy of the tag. Since he had recent knee surgery and could miss the start of the season, that seems unlikely.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

K Jason Hanson

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. Without another obvious candidate, Hanson makes some sense as a career 81.9% kicker, but that’s only assuming he still wants to play heading into his age 43 season in 2013 and that he can even still kick well at that age (not completely unheard of).

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Chicago Bears 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Bears, News

DT Henry Melton

Henry Melton had a breakout year in 2012, registering 7 sacks, 9 quarterback hits, and 23 quarterback pressures and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle. Heading into his 4th year in the league and a contract year, Melton, a 2009 4th rounder, is expected to get a larger role in the absence of guys like Amobi Okoye and Anthony Adams, who are no longer with the team. If he can keep it up in a larger role, he could emerge as one of the league’s premier defensive tackles and the Bears might see him worthy of the relatively inexpensive defensive tackle franchise tag (7.9 million in 2012).

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

MLB Brian Urlacher

Urlacher is a future Hall of Famer, but he’s aging and the linebacker franchise tag value (8.8 million in 2012) is inflated by the salaries of rush linebackers and thus non-rush linebackers rarely get tagged. After an offseason in which Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years, the Bears are unlikely to commit 8.8 million or more to Urlacher over just one season, especially his age 35 season. For reference, Urlacher will make just 7.5 million in 2012. If there’s anyone that’s going to be an exception to all that I’ve just said, it’s Urlacher, but more likely the two sides come to a more team friendly deal over a longer period of time that will allow Urlacher to retire as a Bear.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Jaguars’ Head Coach Mike Mularkey has still never met Maurice Jones Drew

stevenlourie Jaguars, News

In what I find to be one of the funniest NFL stories I’ve read in a while, summing up the Jaguars’ ineptitude, Jacksonville Jaguars’ first year Head Coach Mike Mularkey and star running back Maurice Jones Drew have still never met each other. That’s right. The Jaguars Head Coach has met his best player the same number of times as most people reading this have, as MJD is still refusing to report to Training Camp.

The MJD and the Jaguars’ front office are speaking on a regular basis, but the two sides are still not close on a long term deal, as the Jaguars are refusing to even make him an offer on a long term extension. One side will almost definitely cave before the start of the season, so I don’t expect Maurice Jones-Drew to miss any games, but missing Training Camp and the Preseason, much like Chris Johnson did last offseason, could have a major negative effect on MJD’s production next season, especially with a new coaching staff coming in.

MJD is also coming off a season in which he led the league in carries, which could lead to him being worn out this season.  Since 1988, only 4 of 23 running backs who led the league in carry surpassed their rushing yards total the following season. 2 of those backs were Emmitt Smith and one was a 22 year old Edgerrin James in his 2nd year in the league. The other was a 27 year old Clinton Portis, so it’s not impossible to do it several years into your career without being Emmitt Smith, but the numbers are against him. Portis also went on to break down the very next year (124/494/1) and was out of the league before his 30th birthday. MJD is 27, by the way.

Since 1988, backs who lead the league in carries have averaged 368.8 carries per season, rushed for 1621.0 yards, and scored 14.6 touchdowns. The following season, they averaged 273.8 carries per season, rushed for 1091.7 yards, and scored 9.2 touchdowns. An extended holdout won’t help matters. MJD accounted for a 90s-esque 47.7% of his team’s yards from scrimmage last year, so the Jaguars could be even worse this season offensively, unless a new coaching staff and some new weapons can turn Blaine Gabbert from lame duck to serviceable.

In fantasy leagues, meanwhile, MJD should be avoided in the 1st round, especially on such a desolate offense overall. Let him be someone else’s problem and if you do draft him at any point, make sure to draft handcuff Rashad Jennings, his top backup, as well. Jennings is also a nice high upside sleeper late for all owners.

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Packers sign Cedric Benson

stevenlourie News, Packers

After going fully with a youth approach at the running back position this offseason, the Packers have finally caved and signed a veteran back, signing Cedric Benson, formerly of the Cincinnati Bengals, to a one year contract. Prior to Benson’s signing, the idea was to have James Starks, a 2010 6th round pick with just 162 career carries, and Alex Green, a 2011 3rd round pick with just 3 career carries coming off a torn ACL, to be the top two backs with Brandon Saine, a 2011 undrafted free agent with just 18 career carries, and maybe Marc Tyler, a rookie undrafted free agent, to be below them on the depth chart.

However, with Starks, the presumed lead back, having a rough Training Camp, the Packers have signed Benson, a major indictment on Starks, especially. Benson won’t cut too much into Green’s carries as he’s the type of change of pace, pass catching back that neither Benson nor Starks is. He’ll still have a significant role. However, Benson will cut into Starks’ carries on the first two downs. It’s not a pretty situation for fantasy players, but the Packers have a strong passing game and offensive line so their 3 backs splitting carries should allow them to be decent on the ground as an occasional change of speed from their dominant passing offense. Ironically, the soon to be 30 Benson would appear to be the most durable of the group.

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Green Bay Packers 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie News, Packers

WR Greg Jennings

Jennings seems like a natural fit for the franchise tag. He’s one of the best players heading into a contract year in the league this season and he doesn’t face much, if any, competition from teammates for the franchise tag. They’ll want to make sure they can lock him up long term, so, unless they come to agreement before then, I’d be surprised if they didn’t tag him next offseason.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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Dallas Cowboys 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

OLB Anthony Spencer

Anthony Spencer was franchised this offseason, at the rate of 8.8 million, which was surprising because he’s never managed more than 6 sacks in a season. However, a closer look at his statistics shows that he is a very good player. Though he only had 6 sacks this season, he did have 9 quarterback hits and 35 quarterback pressures and he was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd highest rated 3-4 outside linebacker against the run, only behind James Harrison.

The Cowboys franchised him this offseason to essentially give him a one year “prove it” deal, in hopes that he would finally break out as an elite pass rusher opposite DeMarcus Ware. Owed 120% of his 2012 franchise tag value in 2013, if he were to be franchised again, 10.56 million, Spencer is doubtful to get the tag again unless he has a massive breakout season.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Eagles, News

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie

While I like DRC, a 2009 Pro-Bowler and 2008 1st round pick, to have a bounce back year in 2012, now that he’s no longer playing the slot and now that he’s motivated financially, the cornerback tender is one of the most expensive tenders in the league, tied for 2nd highest in 2012 at 10.6 million. That type of money is normally only reserved for consistent, elite cornerbacks, which DRC is not.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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Washington Redskins 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Commanders, News

TE Fred Davis

Players aren’t franchised two years in a row very often and Davis was franchised this offseason, but he does make sense as an exception. The tight end franchise tag value is still relatively cheap, the cheapest of any non-special teamer (5.4 million in 2012). The Redskins could franchise him for the 2nd time in 2013 at the rate of just 6.48 million, which is much, much cheaper than franchising any other position for the 2nd time.

Davis was on pace for 79 catches for 1061 yards and 4 touchdowns before getting suspended for 4 games last season. The reason the two sides did not reach a long term agreement this offseason was because Davis felt he could produce elite tight end numbers and the Redskins wouldn’t pay him like an elite tight end without actually seeing it over a full season, rather than on a per game basis. With better quarterback play in 2012, if he even approaches those numbers, Davis would be worthy that “re-franchised” figure.

Likelihood: Likely

K Neil Rackers

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, they’re almost always franchised only when the team doesn’t have someone more important to franchise. If they choose not to tag Davis again, for whatever reason, Rackers could be a candidate. He’s a career 80.0% kicker.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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New York Giants 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Giants, News

WR Victor Cruz

Victor Cruz would technically be a restricted free agent next offseason, so they could slap a 1st round tender on him and continue to negotiate with him or force him to play out the 2013 season on the tender. However, the Giants may want to avoid a Mike Wallace situation, especially if Cruz continues to produce like he did in 2011 (82 catches for 1536 yards and 9 touchdowns). He’s definitely worth the wide receiver franchise tag value (9.4 million in 2012), barring a regression, and the Giants could choose to franchise him, rather that slap a 1st round tender on him, as an act of good faith.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

S Kenny Phillips

Of course, the Giants do have other options. After a nasty injury early in his career, Phillips has emerged as one of the better safeties in the league. The safety franchise tag value is pretty inexpensive (6.2 million in 2012), and for that reason, 4 players at the position have been slapped with it in the last 2 seasons, Tyvon Branch, Michael Huff, Michael Griffin, and Dashon Goldson. Phillips would fit in that group, so he could definitely be tagged, but only if they decide not to go this route with Cruz, as he’s the more valuable player.

Likelihood: Somewhat likely

DE Osi Umenyiora

Osi Umenyiora is a very good pass rusher, but the defensive end tag is one of the most expensive tags (10.6 million in 2012, tied for 2nd highest in the NFL), so I can’t see the Giants committing that kind of money to an aging pass rusher (age 32 in 2013), who is still only a situational player. If Umenyiora is going to remain with the Giants, it’s going to be on a pure short or long term deal.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

K Lawrence Tynes

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal. However, they’re almost always franchised only when the team doesn’t have someone more important to franchise. Phillips and Cruz would definitely qualify, even though Tynes is a solid kicker who has been with the Giants for years and made several big kicks en route to 2 Super Bowl victories. He’s a career 80.9% kicker.

Likelihood: Unlikely

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Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

WR Dwayne Bowe

After being franchised this offseason (which he still has not signed, by the way), Bowe would be owed about 11.4 million in 2013 were he to be franchised again. He might be worth that much, but it really feels like the two sides are going be split ways after the 2012 season. The Chiefs won’t reward him with a giant payday in 2013 after what he’s done this offseason, especially with no guarantee he’ll even sign. They also definitely have other options.

Likelihood: Unlikely

OT Branden Albert

This makes more sense. Branden Albert, the 15th pick in 2008 NFL Draft, finally broke out as a legitimate franchise left tackle in 2011 and those guys are rarely allowed to hit the open market. Unless he regresses in 2012, the Chiefs could definitely slap the franchise tag on him, especially if it’s as reasonably priced for offensive linemen as it was in 2012 (9.4 million).

Likelihood: Likely

DE Glenn Dorsey

This is another option, but, while Dorsey plays the run well, he really struggles as a pass rusher, even for a five-technique. 3-4 defensive ends are rarely slapped with the tag because the defensive end is normally one of the most expensive in the league (10.6 million in 2012) and defensive ends in a 3-4 are not as valuable as outside linebackers in 3-4, who focus more on rushing the quarterback.

The 3-4 defensive end is really more like a defensive tackle than a defensive tackle and defensive tackles are worth less. Dorsey barely gets any pass rush at all and 8 figures is way too much to pay a guy whose mostly a run stuffer for one year. The only way he gets franchise tagged is if they can get him classified as a defensive tackle (7.9 million in 2012).

Likelihood: Unlikely

P Dustin Colquitt

Punters and kickers are the most often franchised because the franchise tag values for them are very cheap and franchising them makes a lot more sense than giving them a long term deal.  However, when teams have players on either offense or defense worthy of the tag, they lock them up first. Colquitt is a fine punter (career 44.4 yards per punt), but someone like Albert makes way more sense.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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